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University Research for Engineering and Systems Thinking About Energy Alternatives
Carey King, Ph.D.
Center for International Energy and Environmental PolicyJackson School of Geological Sciences
Carey KingTexas Energy Independence Forum 2
February 23, 2011
Value of university research is freedom to look ahead
• Universities can spend time on the long-range problems
• Funding from multiple sources (federal, state, industry, NGO) helps to ensure objectivity and longevity
• Train future critical thinkers
• Study pure science integrated systems
Technology and Systems viewpoints:Oil case
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February 23, 2011http://www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reserves/oilgas_educational_posters.html
US DOE Poster
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February 23, 2011
Solutions are needed on global scale (e.g. peak oil)
Source: www.aspo-ireland.org; http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php
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February 23, 2011
Energy Return On (energy) Investment (EROI) tells us about energy quality & technology
• “Energy gain has implications beyond mere accounting. It fundamentally influences the structure and organization of living systems, including human societies.” (Tainter, Allen et al. 2003)
• EROI measures the battle between resource depletion and technological advancement
EROI = Eoutput / Einput
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February 23, 2011
• Spindletop, Beaumont Texas, 1901.
• 18 million barrels a year from a trivial investment.
Courtesy of C. A. S. Hall
http://www.priweb.org/ed/pgws/history/spindletop/spindletop.html
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February 23, 2011
• Today: Thunder Horse platform produced ~ 70 million barrels in 2009 – but investment is huge
http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/crazy_horse/ http://www.energybulletin.net/node/52659
http://xpda.com/junkmail/junk187/thunder_horse_1720_1137.jpg
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February 23, 2011King, C. W. (2010) Environmental Research Letters.
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February 23, 2011EIA, Annual Energy Review (2008).
20
08
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February 23, 2011
Future oil supplies are more expensive:lower EROI (quality) = higher price
Oil SandsOil Shale
Historical Range
Recent Range
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February 23, 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
EIR
OilGasoline
Biofuels AND fossil alternatives (oil sands, oil shale) have challenges
Texas energy consumption and emissions
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February 23, 2011
Understand Texas economy & emissions
• January 29, 2009 a TX Legislator suggested …– ~ ‘UK, and world, should follow Texas’ lead in reducing CO2
emissions with growing economy’
• From 2000-2005: TX GSP up 16.5%, CO2 down 4.4%
US Total a TX Total bUS
Industrialc
TX Industrialb
TX Natural
Gasb
2000 5,893 654 1,786 218 2332005 6,032 625 1,672 179 186
% change 2000 to 2005 2.4 % -4.4 % -6.4 % -17.6 % -20.5 %
MtCO2/yr
Data from Energy Information Administration:a: Hhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/tbl5.xlsb: Hhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/state/excel/TX_05_details.xlsH c: Hhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/tbl9.xlsH
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February 23, 2011
Emissions drop in TX almost exclusively from drop in natural gas consumption
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February 23, 2011
Natural gas drop almost entirely due to industrial sector; electricity CO2 held constant
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February 23, 2011
Increase in price of natural gas was main driver for downturn in Texas’ CO2 emissions
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February 23, 2011
Federal and state policies have been successful for Texas wind
Nuclear
Coal
Natural Gas
Wind
Need tools/documents for people to learn energy tradeoffs for themselves
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February 23, 2011
We need comparison of energy alternatives side-by-side using many metrics
King & Webber (2008). Env. Sci. & Tech. 42 (21), 7866-7872.
Conventional Fossil Fuels
Gas
oli
ne
Die
sel
CN
G
Unconventional Fossil Fuels
Co
al F
-T D
iese
l
NG
F
-T D
iese
l
Gas
oli
ne
– S
hal
e O
il
Gas
oli
ne
– T
ar S
and
s
EV/PHEV
Ele
ctro
lysi
s W
ind
/PV
So
lar
Win
d/P
V S
ola
r
US
Gri
d
Ele
ctro
lysi
s U
S G
rid
Met
han
e R
efo
rmin
g
H2 Fuel CellsIrrigated Corn E85
gra
in
No
n-i
rrig
ated
Irrigated
Non-irrigated Corn E85
Soy Biodiesel
sto
ver
gra
in &
sto
ver
gra
in
sto
ver
gra
in &
sto
ver
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February 23, 2011
Interactive tools allow for discussion of alternatives using baseline data
Thanks to Power Across
Texas
http://tips.engr.utexas.edu/
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February 23, 2011
Value universities for creating information from data
• Partners in providing information for policy and decision-making
• Objective and transparent (as possible!) tools for comparison of options
• Relate technical and physical constraints to energy end use
• Educate students to be critical thinkers
Carey [email protected]
http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/cieep
Thank You
http://www.webberenergygroup.com
WEBBER ENERGY GROUP
Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy
http://www.gulfcoastcarbon.org
