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University of Groningen Interregional migration in Indonesia Wajdi, Nashrul IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 2017 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Wajdi, N. (2017). Interregional migration in Indonesia: Macro, micro, and agent-based modelling approaches. [Groningen]: University of Groningen. Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): http://www.rug.nl/research/portal. For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date: 27-04-2019

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Page 1: University of Groningen Interregional migration in ... · 198 Appendix 2.1. List of variables for migrant status-origin-time model Variable Category Remark Dependent Variable Migrant

University of Groningen

Interregional migration in IndonesiaWajdi, Nashrul

IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite fromit. Please check the document version below.

Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of record

Publication date:2017

Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database

Citation for published version (APA):Wajdi, N. (2017). Interregional migration in Indonesia: Macro, micro, and agent-based modellingapproaches. [Groningen]: University of Groningen.

CopyrightOther than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of theauthor(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons).

Take-down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediatelyand investigate your claim.

Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): http://www.rug.nl/research/portal. For technical reasons thenumber of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum.

Download date: 27-04-2019

Page 2: University of Groningen Interregional migration in ... · 198 Appendix 2.1. List of variables for migrant status-origin-time model Variable Category Remark Dependent Variable Migrant

Appendices

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182

Appendix 1.1. PC2000 Questionnaire

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App

endi

ces

Appendix 1.1. PC2000 Questionnaire (continued)

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184

Appendix 1.1. PC2000 Questionnaire (continued)

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App

endi

ces

Appendix 1.2. PC2010 Questionnaire

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186

Appendix 1.2. PC2010 Questionnaire (continued)

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App

endi

ces

Appendix 1.2. PC2010 Questionnaire (continued)

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188

Appendix 1.2. PC2010 Questionnaire (continued)

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App

endi

ces

Appendix 1.3. SUPAS 2005 Questionnaire

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Appendix 1.3. SUPAS 2005 Questionnaire (continued)

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App

endi

ces

Appendix 1.3. SUPAS 2005 Questionnaire (continued)

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Appendix 1.3. SUPAS 2005 Questionnaire (continued)

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App

endi

ces

Appendix 1.3. SUPAS 2005 Questionnaire (continued)

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Appendix 1.3. SUPAS 2005 Questionnaire (continued)

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endi

ces

Appendix 1.3. SUPAS 2005 Questionnaire (continued)

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Appendix 1.3. SUPAS 2005 Questionnaire (continued)

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endi

ces

Appendix 1.3. SUPAS 2005 Questionnaire (continued)

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198

Appendix 2.1. List of variables for migrant status-origin-time model

Variable Category Remark

Dependent VariableMigrant status m 1: migrant

0: stayer (reference category)

Independent variablesRegion of origin O 1: Jakarta

2: Bodetabek Bogor, Depok Tangerang and Bekasi

3: Bandung Raya

4: RoWJB Rest of West Java and Banten

5: Kedungsepur

6: RoCJY Rest of Central Java and Yogyakarta

7: Gerbangkertosusila

8: RoEJ Rest of East Java

9: Mebidangro

10: RoS Rest of Sumatera

11: Kalimantan

12: Sulawesi

0: RoI (reference category) Rest of Indonesia

Time period T 1: 1995-2000

2: 2000-2005

0: 2005-2010 (reference category)

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App

endi

ces

Variable Category Remark

Dependent Variable

Region of origin

O 1: Jakarta Reference category for other regions

2: Bodetabek Bogor, Depok Tangerang and Bekasi

3: Bandung Raya

4: RoWJB Rest of West Java and Banten

5: Kedungsepur

6: RoCJY Rest of Central Java and Yogyakarta

7: Gerbangkertosusila

8: RoEJ Rest of East Java

9: Mebidangro

10: RoS Rest of Sumatera

11: Kalimantan

12: Sulawesi

0: RoI (Rest of Indonesia) Reference category for Jakarta

Independent variables

Region of destination

D 1: Jakarta Reference category for other regions

2: Bodetabek Bogor, Depok Tangerang and Bekasi

3: Bandung Raya

4: RoWJB Rest of West Java and Banten

5: Kedungsepur

6: RoCJY Rest of Central Java and Yogyakarta

7: Gerbangkertosusila

8: RoEJ Rest of East Java

9: Mebidangro

10: RoS Rest of Sumatera

11: Kalimantan

12: Sulawesi

0: RoI (Rest of Indonesia) Reference category for Jakarta

Time period T 0: 1995-2000 (reference category)

1: 2000-2005

2: 2005-2010

APPENDIX 2.2. List of variables for saturated multinomial logit origin-destination-time model

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200

APPENDIX 2.3. Population of Indonesia by migrant status, 1995-2000 to 2005-2010

Period Region of Origin Migrant Stayer TotalMigrants Propor-

tion

1995-2000

1. Jakarta 989,427 7,357,654 8,347,081 0.1185

2. Bodetabek 321,058 12,521,197 12,842,255 0.0250

3. Bandung Raya 206,198 6,088,144 6,294,342 0.0328

4. RoWJB 823,893 23,859,265 24,683,158 0.0334

5. Kedungsepur 232,205 5,192,854 5,425,059 0.0428

6. RoCJY 1,191,945 27,427,636 28,619,581 0.0416

7. Gerbangkertosusila 200,828 7,953,422 8,154,250 0.0246

8. RoEJ 688,250 25,877,476 26,565,726 0.0259

9. Mebidangro 857,690 2,849,014 3,706,704 0.2314

10. RoS 522,441 35,327,573 35,850,014 0.0146

11. Kalimantan 95,053 10,856,094 10,951,147 0.0087

12. Sulawesi 172,182 14,219,589 14,391,771 0.0120

13. Rest of Indonesia 253,760 13,953,050 14,206,810 0.0179

2000-2005

1. Jakarta 783,930 8,055,317 8,839,247 0.0887

2. Bodetabek 236,364 14,547,010 14,783,374 0.0160

3. Bandung Raya 189,139 6,683,584 6,872,723 0.0275

4. RoWJB 454,277 25,784,752 26,239,029 0.0173

5. Kedungsepur 140,930 5,567,414 5,708,344 0.0247

6. RoCJY 708,829 28,816,036 29,524,865 0.0240

7. Gerbangkertosusila 192,309 8,393,287 8,585,596 0.0224

8. RoEJ 483,155 26,989,356 27,472,511 0.0176

9. Mebidangro 167,195 4,006,691 4,173,886 0.0401

10. RoS 427,770 36,568,105 36,995,875 0.0116

11. Kalimantan 120,139 11,947,991 12,068,130 0.0100

12. Sulawesi 155,739 15,594,082 15,749,821 0.0099

13. Rest of Indonesia 148,801 16,066,695 16,215,496 0.0092

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ces

Period Region of Origin Migrant Stayer TotalMigrants Propor-

tion

2005-2010

1. Jakarta 1,059,632 8,548,155 9,607,787 0.1103

2. Bodetabek 358,706 17,990,701 18,349,407 0.0195

3. Bandung Raya 234,074 7,390,803 7,624,877 0.0307

4. RoWJB 707,460 27,004,154 27,711,614 0.0255

5. Kedungsepur 184,104 5,737,527 5,921,631 0.0311

6. RoCJY 1,104,716 28,813,801 29,918,517 0.0369

7. Gerbangkertosusila 243,698 8,871,787 9,115,485 0.0267

8. RoEJ 663,515 27,697,757 28,361,272 0.0234

9. Mebidangro 266,310 4,218,845 4,485,155 0.0594

10. RoS 489,649 45,656,127 46,145,776 0.0106

11. Kalimantan 144,767 13,643,064 13,787,831 0.0105

12. Sulawesi 236,012 17,135,770 17,371,782 0.0136

13. Rest of Indonesia 198,880 19,041,312 19,240,192 0.0103

APPENDIX 2.3. Population of Indonesia by migrant status, 1995-2000 to 2005-2010(continued)

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202

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APP

EN

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2.4

. Num

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of in

terr

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by o

rigi

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d de

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n, P

opul

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ensu

s 20

00

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203

App

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5

0 2

,532

1

,165

1

7,84

7 1

6,65

7 2

6,82

7 4

18

12,

925

13,

305

45,

930

- 1

48,8

01

Tot

al 6

16,0

10

916,

032

161

,343

289

,056

10

4,24

0 4

39,5

11

273,

295

266

,396

148

,728

483

,026

21

8,77

6 1

24,9

83 1

67,1

81 4

,208

,577

APP

EN

DIX

2.5

. Num

ber

of in

terr

egio

nal m

igra

nts

by o

rigi

n an

d de

stin

atio

n, I

nter

cens

al S

urve

y 20

05

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2032017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 203 31-8-2017 10:03:4131-8-2017 10:03:41

Page 25: University of Groningen Interregional migration in ... · 198 Appendix 2.1. List of variables for migrant status-origin-time model Variable Category Remark Dependent Variable Migrant

204

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

nT

otal

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

691

,383

2

2,08

7 6

6,66

8 1

1,86

5 7

8,67

4 8

,911

1

9,16

8 8

,561

9

5,63

7 1

7,98

8 1

8,65

2 2

0,03

8 1

,059

,632

2. B

odet

abek

122

,727

-

17,

299

72,

375

5,7

17

50,

048

3,3

20

11,

100

2,8

27

53,

900

7,1

66

5,1

52

7,0

75

358

,706

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

24,

003

41,

681

- 7

9,68

4 2

,378

2

0,06

1 2

,798

5

,380

2

,383

3

6,01

0 8

,273

4

,522

6

,901

2

34,0

74

4. R

oWJB

150

,942

2

50,7

98

122,

316

- 6

,109

4

7,43

6 4

,535

1

0,85

3 1

,458

7

2,79

4 2

1,67

8 8

,062

1

0,47

9 7

07,4

60

5. K

edun

gsep

ur 2

4,24

1 2

6,10

3 3

,642

6

,644

-

56,

774

4,6

87

7,4

32

811

2

2,91

9 1

7,72

3 5

,359

7

,769

1

84,1

04

6. R

oCJY

246

,728

2

94,9

44

44,

755

73,

640

97,

799

- 2

1,10

6 3

8,43

8 3

,050

13

4,11

9 1

03,3

03

16,

977

29,

857

1,1

04,7

16

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

19,

364

21,

973

4,5

23

6,4

31

4,2

06

15,

553

- 8

9,44

0 1

,077

1

4,76

6 2

9,39

8 1

1,31

8 2

5,64

9 2

43,6

98

8. R

oEJ

38,

901

51,

110

8,4

60

12,

812

7,6

33

44,

751

214

,860

-

1,1

24

64,

144

106

,847

1

8,83

8 9

4,03

5 6

63,5

15

9. M

ebid

angr

o 1

4,73

1 2

0,85

5 6

,293

5

,755

1

,062

4

,725

1

,195

2

,049

-

199

,302

5

,753

1

,811

2

,779

2

66,3

10

10. R

oS 6

8,96

0 1

01,4

53

25,

366

37,

899

8,0

52

56,

706

4,8

09

22,

804

119

,379

-

21,

071

9,8

77

13,

273

489

,649

11. K

alim

anta

n 1

2,77

3 1

2,01

7 4

,094

4

,808

3

,949

2

3,44

6 5

,742

2

2,00

9 9

07

14,

550

- 3

1,12

7 9

,345

1

44,7

67

12. S

ulaw

esi

11,

004

9,4

80

3,8

96

2,7

22

1,7

03

8,0

05

3,8

59

6,2

14

528

1

3,60

8 8

4,44

6 -

90,

547

236

,012

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia 1

2,03

1 1

2,85

3 4

,620

3

,894

4

,349

2

2,71

2 1

0,41

1 2

5,26

3 1

,044

1

7,61

5 2

6,91

5 5

7,17

3 -

198

,880

Tot

al 7

46,4

05 1

,534

,650

26

7,35

1 3

73,3

32 1

54,8

22 4

28,8

91 2

86,2

33 2

60,1

50

143,

149

739

,364

450

,561

188

,868

31

7,74

7 5

,891

,523

APP

EN

DIX

2.6

. Num

ber

of in

terr

egio

nal m

igra

nts

by o

rigi

n an

d de

stin

atio

n, P

opul

atio

n C

ensu

s 20

10

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2042017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 204 31-8-2017 10:03:4131-8-2017 10:03:41

Page 26: University of Groningen Interregional migration in ... · 198 Appendix 2.1. List of variables for migrant status-origin-time model Variable Category Remark Dependent Variable Migrant

205

App

endi

ces

APP

EN

DIX

2.7

. Per

cent

ages

of i

nter

-reg

iona

l mig

rant

s by

are

a of

des

tina

tion

, Pop

ulat

ion

Cen

sus

2000

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

nT

otal

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

67.

92

2.4

1 7

.24

1.5

1 8

.09

0.7

2 0

.99

0.8

7 5

.98

1.5

7 1

.08

1.6

0 1

00.0

0

2. B

odet

abek

30.

26

- 6

.55

37.

45

1.1

4 9

.83

0.4

9 1

.17

0.5

6 7

.57

1.7

2 0

.70

2.5

5 1

00.0

0

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

10.

98

20.

49

- 3

9.68

1

.38

8.1

0 1

.02

1.6

2 1

.07

8.7

8 3

.01

1.5

3 2

.35

100

.00

4. R

oWJB

18.

19

39.

91

19.

90

- 1

.41

7.6

8 0

.46

1.1

7 0

.14

5.9

8 2

.66

0.5

8 1

.92

100

.00

5. K

edun

gsep

ur 1

3.26

9

.97

2.9

7 4

.70

- 4

4.90

3

.80

4.4

1 0

.31

6.3

1 5

.92

1.3

2 2

.14

100

.00

6. R

oCJY

22.

87

21.

85

4.8

1 1

1.01

1

1.58

-

2.2

9 6

.23

0.2

7 9

.58

5.9

8 1

.17

2.3

6 1

00.0

0

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

10.

83

8.2

5 2

.07

3.6

2 3

.41

7.9

8 -

34.

05

0.4

7 4

.44

12.

51

4.1

5 8

.22

100

.00

8. R

oEJ

7.5

2 7

.90

1.8

7 3

.67

1.4

9 8

.09

35.

53

- 0

.15

7.9

6 1

3.74

2

.36

9.7

3 1

00.0

0

9. M

ebid

angr

o 2

.65

2.7

4 0

.85

0.9

1 0

.15

0.7

4 0

.11

0.0

9 -

90.

98

0.4

3 0

.15

0.1

8 1

00.0

0

10. R

oS 1

5.40

1

8.26

5

.73

8.3

8 1

.68

12.

65

0.6

4 2

.36

25.

01

- 4

.06

3.4

9 2

.35

100

.00

11. K

alim

anta

n 1

2.57

8

.53

3.4

8 5

.42

3.4

9 2

1.21

5

.14

7.9

4 1

.05

8.4

4 -

12.

13

10.

59

100.

00

12. S

ulaw

esi

9.6

8 3

.92

2.1

1 3

.18

2.9

4 1

3.38

1

.59

2.1

0 0

.46

8.3

5 3

3.20

-

19.

07

100.

00

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia 5

.52

5.2

1 2

.67

4.6

6 1

.57

11.

81

2.4

3 3

.80

0.3

6 4

.61

11.

85

45.

50

- 1

00.0

0

Tot

al 1

2.09

2

3.56

5

.20

7.9

7 3

.21

7.8

3 4

.78

3.2

5 2

.33

17.

66

5.5

9 3

.19

3.3

3 1

00.0

0

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2052017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 205 31-8-2017 10:03:4131-8-2017 10:03:41

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206

APP

EN

DIX

2.8

. Per

cent

ages

of i

nter

-reg

iona

l mig

rant

s by

are

a of

des

tina

tion

, Int

erce

nsal

Sur

vey

2005

Ori

gin

Des

tinat

ion

Tota

l1

23

45

67

89

1011

1213

1. Ja

kart

a -

57.

88

1.7

1 7

.76

1.2

6 1

2.97

0

.65

4.0

7 0

.92

9.2

3 0

.90

1.2

3 1

.41

100

.00

2. B

odet

abek

30.

72

- 6

.07

20.

56

1.2

4 2

0.66

2

.10

3.9

0 0

.37

10.

55

1.2

3 0

.80

1.7

8 1

00.0

0

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

8.1

0 1

4.81

-

41.

49

2.0

4 1

1.51

1

.81

2.6

6 0

.38

8.5

2 2

.84

3.4

7 2

.37

100

.00

4. R

oWJB

29.

95

30.

77

18.

80

- 0

.54

6.4

6 0

.99

1.1

8 0

.08

8.1

2 1

.31

0.9

4 0

.86

100

.00

5. K

edun

gsep

ur 1

4.41

1

1.58

1

.56

3.0

2 -

42.

05

2.7

8 3

.81

- 1

0.69

5

.51

2.3

2 2

.27

100

.00

6. R

oCJY

31.

60

20.

65

3.5

8 5

.33

9.1

6 -

3.0

0 3

.98

0.7

1 1

2.92

4

.54

1.7

1 2

.83

100

.00

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

9.2

4 3

.44

0.5

0 2

.52

1.5

6 8

.70

- 5

2.25

0

.10

5.1

3 7

.87

3.4

5 5

.23

100

.00

8. R

oEJ

7.9

8 4

.66

0.5

7 2

.70

0.7

4 7

.93

41.

51

- 0

.17

10.

05

11.

33

2.2

0 1

0.16

1

00.0

0

9. M

ebid

angr

o 5

.40

4.2

6 2

.02

1.1

4 -

3.4

3 0

.09

0.4

3 -

79.

21

1.8

9 0

.79

1.3

5 1

00.0

0

10. R

oS 1

4.02

1

7.95

2

.77

5.9

0 2

.23

13.

85

0.9

6 6

.50

30.

55

- 2

.04

1.2

6 1

.97

100

.00

11. K

alim

anta

n 6

.61

5.1

9 0

.77

8.5

1 1

.52

26.

30

5.4

8 1

5.82

-

8.7

7 -

14.

41

6.6

3 1

00.0

0

12. S

ulaw

esi

6.7

9 3

.38

0.4

6 0

.87

0.6

7 5

.94

1.2

8 4

.14

1.5

1 7

.55

40.

17

- 2

7.23

1

00.0

0

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia 2

.63

4.8

6 0

.03

1.7

0 0

.78

11.

99

11.

19

18.

03

0.2

8 8

.69

8.9

4 3

0.87

-

100

.00

Tot

al 1

4.64

2

1.77

3

.83

6.8

7 2

.48

10.

44

6.4

9 6

.33

3.5

3 1

1.48

5

.20

2.9

7 3

.97

100

.00

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207

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

nT

otal

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

65.

25

2.0

8 6

.29

1.1

2 7

.42

0.8

4 1

.81

0.8

1 9

.03

1.7

0 1

.76

1.8

9 1

00.0

0

2. B

odet

abek

34.

21

- 4

.82

20.

18

1.5

9 1

3.95

0

.93

3.0

9 0

.79

15.

03

2.0

0 1

.44

1.9

7 1

00.0

0

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

10.

25

17.

81

- 3

4.04

1

.02

8.5

7 1

.20

2.3

0 1

.02

15.

38

3.5

3 1

.93

2.9

5 1

00.0

0

4. R

oWJB

21.

34

35.

45

17.

29

- 0

.86

6.7

1 0

.64

1.5

3 0

.21

10.

29

3.0

6 1

.14

1.4

8 1

00.0

0

5. K

edun

gsep

ur 1

3.17

1

4.18

1

.98

3.6

1 -

30.

84

2.5

5 4

.04

0.4

4 1

2.45

9

.63

2.9

1 4

.22

100

.00

6. R

oCJY

22.

33

26.

70

4.0

5 6

.67

8.8

5 -

1.9

1 3

.48

0.2

8 1

2.14

9

.35

1.5

4 2

.70

100

.00

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

7.9

5 9

.02

1.8

6 2

.64

1.7

3 6

.38

- 3

6.70

0

.44

6.0

6 1

2.06

4

.64

10.

52

100.

00

8. R

oEJ

5.8

6 7

.70

1.2

8 1

.93

1.1

5 6

.74

32.

38

- 0

.17

9.6

7 1

6.10

2

.84

14.

17

100.

00

9. M

ebid

angr

o 5

.53

7.8

3 2

.36

2.1

6 0

.40

1.7

7 0

.45

0.7

7 -

74.

84

2.1

6 0

.68

1.0

4 1

00.0

0

10. R

oS 1

4.08

2

0.72

5

.18

7.7

4 1

.64

11.

58

0.9

8 4

.66

24.

38

- 4

.30

2.0

2 2

.71

100

.00

11. K

alim

anta

n 8

.82

8.3

0 2

.83

3.3

2 2

.73

16.

20

3.9

7 1

5.20

0

.63

10.

05

- 2

1.50

6

.46

100

.00

12. S

ulaw

esi

4.6

6 4

.02

1.6

5 1

.15

0.7

2 3

.39

1.6

4 2

.63

0.2

2 5

.77

35.

78

- 3

8.37

10

0.00

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia 6

.05

6.4

6 2

.32

1.9

6 2

.19

11.

42

5.2

3 1

2.70

0

.52

8.8

6 1

3.53

2

8.75

-

100

.00

Tot

al 1

2.67

2

6.05

4

.54

6.3

4 2

.63

7.2

8 4

.86

4.4

2 2

.43

12.

55

7.6

5 3

.21

5.3

9 1

00.0

0

APP

EN

DIX

2.9

. Per

cent

ages

of i

nter

-reg

iona

l mig

rant

s by

are

a of

des

tina

tion

, Pop

ulat

ion

Cen

sus

2010

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2072017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 207 31-8-2017 10:03:4131-8-2017 10:03:41

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208

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

nT

otal

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

43.

51

7.0

0 1

3.71

7

.10

15.

60

2.2

9 4

.61

5.6

0 5

.11

4.2

5 5

.13

7.2

8 1

5.09

2. B

odet

abek

12.

26

- 6

.16

23.

01

1.7

3 6

.15

0.5

0 1

.77

1.1

8 2

.10

1.5

1 1

.07

3.7

6 4

.90

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

2.8

6 2

.73

- 1

5.66

1

.35

3.2

5 0

.67

1.5

6 1

.44

1.5

6 1

.69

1.5

1 2

.23

3.1

5

4. R

oWJB

18.

91

21.

29

48.

09

- 5

.51

12.

32

1.2

1 4

.50

0.7

4 4

.26

5.9

9 2

.29

7.2

7 1

2.57

5. K

edun

gsep

ur 3

.89

1.5

0 2

.02

2.0

9 -

20.

32

2.8

2 4

.80

0.4

8 1

.27

3.7

5 1

.46

2.2

8 3

.54

6. R

oCJY

34.

40

16.

86

16.

80

25.

12

65.

52

- 8

.70

34.

79

2.1

3 9

.86

19.

48

6.6

7 1

2.91

1

8.18

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

2.7

5 1

.07

1.2

2 1

.39

3.2

5 3

.12

- 3

2.05

0

.61

0.7

7 6

.86

3.9

9 7

.57

3.0

6

8. R

oEJ

6.5

3 3

.52

3.7

7 4

.83

4.8

8 1

0.85

7

8.07

-

0.6

8 4

.73

25.

82

7.7

6 3

0.71

1

0.50

9. M

ebid

angr

o 2

.87

1.5

2 2

.14

1.5

0 0

.62

1.2

4 0

.29

0.3

8 -

67.

40

1.0

2 0

.62

0.7

2 1

3.08

10. R

oS 1

0.15

6

.18

8.7

7 8

.38

4.1

6 1

2.88

1

.06

5.7

8 8

5.38

-

5.8

0 8

.74

5.6

2 7

.97

11. K

alim

anta

n 1

.51

0.5

2 0

.97

0.9

9 1

.58

3.9

3 1

.56

3.5

4 0

.65

0.6

9 -

5.5

2 4

.62

1.4

5

12. S

ulaw

esi

2.1

0 0

.44

1.0

7 1

.05

2.4

0 4

.49

0.8

8 1

.70

0.5

1 1

.24

15.

61

- 1

5.05

2

.63

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia 1

.77

0.8

6 1

.99

2.2

6 1

.89

5.8

4 1

.97

4.5

2 0

.60

1.0

1 8

.21

55.

25

- 3

.87

Tot

al 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0

APP

EN

DIX

2.1

0. P

erce

ntag

es o

f int

er-r

egio

nal m

igra

nts

by a

rea

of o

rigi

n, P

opul

atio

n C

ensu

s 20

00

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209

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

nT

otal

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

49.

54

8.2

9 2

1.04

9

.48

23.

13

1.8

8 1

1.99

4

.87

14.

98

3.2

1 7

.72

6.6

3 1

8.63

2. B

odet

abek

11.

79

- 8

.89

16.

82

2.8

2 1

1.11

1

.82

3.4

6 0

.60

5.1

6 1

.33

1.5

1 2

.52

5.6

2

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

2.4

9 3

.06

- 2

7.15

3

.70

4.9

5 1

.25

1.8

9 0

.49

3.3

4 2

.45

5.2

5 2

.69

4.4

9

4. R

oWJB

22.

08

15.

26

52.

94

- 2

.37

6.6

7 1

.65

2.0

1 0

.26

7.6

3 2

.72

3.4

2 2

.34

10.

79

5. K

edun

gsep

ur 3

.30

1.7

8 1

.36

1.4

7 -

13.

48

1.4

3 2

.02

- 3

.12

3.5

5 2

.62

1.9

1 3

.35

6. R

oCJY

36.

36

15.

98

15.

73

13.

07

62.

28

- 7

.79

10.

58

3.3

8 1

8.95

1

4.69

9

.70

12.

00

16.

84

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

2.8

8 0

.72

0.6

0 1

.68

2.8

8 3

.81

- 3

7.72

0

.13

2.0

4 6

.92

5.3

0 6

.02

4.5

7

8. R

oEJ

6.2

6 2

.46

1.7

1 4

.51

3.4

5 8

.71

73.

39

- 0

.54

10.

06

25.

02

8.5

1 2

9.36

1

1.48

9. M

ebid

angr

o 1

.47

0.7

8 2

.09

0.6

6 -

1.3

0 0

.06

0.2

7 -

27.

42

1.4

4 1

.05

1.3

5 3

.97

10. R

oS 9

.74

8.3

8 7

.34

8.7

3 9

.15

13.

48

1.5

1 1

0.44

8

7.88

-

3.9

8 4

.31

5.0

5 1

0.16

11. K

alim

anta

n 1

.29

0.6

8 0

.57

3.5

4 1

.75

7.1

9 2

.41

7.1

4 -

2.1

8 -

13.

85

4.7

6 2

.85

12. S

ulaw

esi

1.7

2 0

.57

0.4

5 0

.47

1.0

0 2

.10

0.7

3 2

.42

1.5

8 2

.43

28.

60

- 2

5.37

3

.70

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia 0

.64

0.7

9 0

.03

0.8

8 1

.12

4.0

6 6

.09

10.

07

0.2

8 2

.68

6.0

8 3

6.75

-

3.5

4

Tot

al 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0

APP

EN

DIX

2.1

1. P

erce

ntag

es o

f int

er-r

egio

nal m

igra

nts

by a

rea

of o

rigi

n, I

nter

cens

al S

urve

y 20

05

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210

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

nT

otal

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

45.

05

8.2

6 1

7.86

7

.66

18.

34

3.1

1 7

.37

5.9

8 1

2.94

3

.99

9.8

8 6

.31

17.

99

2. B

odet

abek

16.

44

- 6

.47

19.

39

3.6

9 1

1.67

1

.16

4.2

7 1

.97

7.2

9 1

.59

2.7

3 2

.23

6.0

9

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

3.2

2 2

.72

- 2

1.34

1

.54

4.6

8 0

.98

2.0

7 1

.66

4.8

7 1

.84

2.3

9 2

.17

3.9

7

4. R

oWJB

20.

22

16.

34

45.

75

- 3

.95

11.

06

1.5

8 4

.17

1.0

2 9

.85

4.8

1 4

.27

3.3

0 1

2.01

5. K

edun

gsep

ur 3

.25

1.7

0 1

.36

1.7

8 -

13.

24

1.6

4 2

.86

0.5

7 3

.10

3.9

3 2

.84

2.4

5 3

.12

6. R

oCJY

33.

06

19.

22

16.

74

19.

73

63.

17

- 7

.37

14.

78

2.1

3 1

8.14

2

2.93

8

.99

9.4

0 1

8.75

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

2.5

9 1

.43

1.6

9 1

.72

2.7

2 3

.63

- 3

4.38

0

.75

2.0

0 6

.52

5.9

9 8

.07

4.1

4

8. R

oEJ

5.2

1 3

.33

3.1

6 3

.43

4.9

3 1

0.43

7

5.06

-

0.7

9 8

.68

23.

71

9.9

7 2

9.59

1

1.26

9. M

ebid

angr

o 1

.97

1.3

6 2

.35

1.5

4 0

.69

1.1

0 0

.42

0.7

9 -

26.

96

1.2

8 0

.96

0.8

7 4

.52

10. R

oS 9

.24

6.6

1 9

.49

10.

15

5.2

0 1

3.22

1

.68

8.7

7 8

3.39

-

4.6

8 5

.23

4.1

8 8

.31

11. K

alim

anta

n 1

.71

0.7

8 1

.53

1.2

9 2

.55

5.4

7 2

.01

8.4

6 0

.63

1.9

7 -

16.

48

2.9

4 2

.46

12. S

ulaw

esi

1.4

7 0

.62

1.4

6 0

.73

1.1

0 1

.87

1.3

5 2

.39

0.3

7 1

.84

18.

74

- 2

8.50

4

.01

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia 1

.61

0.8

4 1

.73

1.0

4 2

.81

5.3

0 3

.64

9.7

1 0

.73

2.3

8 5

.97

30.

27

- 3

.38

Tot

al 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0 1

00.0

0

APP

EN

DIX

2.1

2 Pe

rcen

tage

s of

inte

r-re

gion

al m

igra

nts

by a

rea

of o

rigi

n, P

opul

atio

n C

ensu

s 20

10

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211

App

endi

ces

Origin1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010

In-migration

Out-Migration

In-migration

Out-Migration

In-migration

Out-Migration

1. Jakarta 0.530 0.657 0.587 0.625 0.552 0.639

2. Bodetabek 0.671 0.731 0.686 0.661 0.663 0.661

3. Bandung Raya 0.627 0.603 0.695 0.569 0.608 0.562

4. RoWJB 0.538 0.652 0.557 0.650 0.525 0.627

5. Kedungsepur 0.680 0.563 0.692 0.578 0.657 0.487

6. RoCJY 0.376 0.465 0.381 0.515 0.347 0.501

7. Gerbangkertosusila 0.795 0.462 0.758 0.613 0.755 0.496

8. RoEJ 0.583 0.497 0.526 0.563 0.484 0.528

9. Mebidangro 0.830 0.873 0.867 0.802 0.818 0.776

10. RoS 0.726 0.480 0.475 0.529 0.462 0.474

11. Kalimantan 0.469 0.334 0.523 0.452 0.480 0.406

12. Sulawesi 0.626 0.543 0.491 0.637 0.458 0.659

13. Rest of Indonesia 0.454 0.561 0.511 0.540 0.532 0.454

APPENDIX 2.13. In- and out-migration fl ows: Gini index values for 1995-2000, 2000-2005 and 2005-2010, inter-regional migration in Indonesia

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212

Ori

gin

Out

-mig

rati

onIn

-mig

rati

onIn

war

d/O

utw

ard

Red

istr

ibut

or

2000

2005

2010

2000

2005

2010

2000

2005

2010

1. J

akar

ta0.

680

0.38

00.

818

-0.6

25-0

.076

-0.1

06I

II

2. B

odet

abek

1.26

40.

821

1.04

20.

507

0.72

10.

813

II

I

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

0.25

3-0

.321

0.03

20.

149

0.79

40.

355

IO

O

4. R

oWJB

0.64

10.

690

0.69

1-0

.563

-0.3

14-0

.327

II

I

5. K

edun

gsep

ur-0

.059

-0.2

06-0

.739

0.58

20.

769

0.76

0O

OO

6. R

oCJY

-0.8

37-1

.006

-0.5

94-1

.867

-1.7

24-1

.794

II

I

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

-0.8

590.

230

-0.6

511.

505

1.29

91.

568

OO

O

8. R

oEJ

-0.5

83-0

.397

-0.3

21-0

.200

-0.5

60-0

.666

OI

I

9. M

ebid

angr

o2.

376

2.58

92.

220

1.78

32.

172

2.08

7I

II

10. R

oS-0

.713

-0.8

22-0

.873

0.94

7-0

.971

-0.8

44O

IO

11. K

alim

anta

n-1

.864

-1.7

91-1

.567

-1.1

21-0

.586

-0.6

97O

OO

12. S

ulaw

esi

-0.2

220.

524

1.01

90.

140

-0.8

44-0

.876

OI

I

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia-0

.078

-0.6

92-1

.076

-1.2

37-0

.681

-0.2

72I

OO

Rem

arks

I: I

nwar

d re

dist

ribu

tor

O: O

utw

ard

redi

stri

buto

r

APP

EN

DIX

2.1

4 Z-

scor

e va

lues

of I

n- a

nd o

ut-m

igra

tion

fl ow

s fo

r 19

95-2

000,

200

0-20

05 a

nd 2

005-

2010

, in

ter-

regi

onal

mig

rati

on in

Ind

ones

ia

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213

App

endi

ces

Appendix 4.1. Percentage of Jakarta inhabitants by type of migration (N= 98,830)

Variables

Percentage migrating to:

Percentage in sample

Another metro within commuting distance

Other metro areas

Non-metro areas

Age category15 – 22 3.8 0.6 3.0 19.523 – 29 5.9 0.6 4.4 21.730 – 54 5.9 0.4 3.2 48.555 – 69 2.9 0.2 1.7 8.470+ 3.6 0.3 1.4 2.0

Period of measurement2000 7.2 0.7 3.0 32.42005 1.9 0.3 3.7 30.32010 6.2 0.5 3.2 37.3

SexMale 5.2 0.5 3.6 50.5Female 5.2 0.4 3.0 49.5

Educational attainmentDid not fi nish compulsory education 3.1 0.5 3.0 5.2

Finished compulsory education 3.4 0.3 3.1 40.3

Finished senior education 6.2 0.6 3.3 40.6

Finished Diploma/University 8.3 0.7 3.9 13.9

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214

Variables

Percentage migrating to:

Percentage in sample

Another metro within commuting distance

Other metro areas

Non-metro areas

Labour market participation statusWorking in the formal sector 6.1 0.5 2.8 37.1

Not in the labour market or unemployed 4.6 0.5 2.8 44.1

Informal agriculture 2.7 1.3 32.0 0.8Informal non-agriculture 4.9 0.4 4.0 17.9

Marital statusNever married 3.4 0.6 3.0 31.0Divorced 5.0 0.6 4.5 1.6Widowed 3.0 0.3 1.4 4.1Married 6.2 0.5 3.5 63.3The presence of under-fi ve in the HHNo under-fi ve 5.3 0.5 3.0 90.4Under-fi ve present 4.7 0.4 5.6 9.6

Total 5.2 0.5 3.3 100.0

Appendix 4.1. Percentage of Jakarta inhabitants by type of migration (N= 98,830)(continued)

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215

App

endi

ces

Appendix 4.2. Percentage of inhabitants of other metro areas by type of migration (N= 349,190)

Variables

Percentage migrating to:

Percentage in sample

Jakarta Other metro areas

Non-metro areas

Age category15 – 22 0.9 0.6 3.8 21.423 – 29 1.1 0.7 4.8 19.030 – 54 0.4 0.3 2.7 46.755 – 69 0.2 0.2 1.4 9.670+ 0.1 0.2 1.8 3.3

Period of measurement2000 0.6 0.6 4.0 35.92005 0.8 0.3 4.1 18.52010 0.5 0.4 2.1 45.6SexMale 0.6 0.5 3.4 50.0Female 0.6 0.4 3.0 50.0

Educational attainmentDid not fi nish compulsory education 0.2 0.2 1.9 12.6

Finished compulsory education 0.5 0.3 2.7 51.3

Finished senior education 0.8 0.7 4.0 28.4

Finished Diploma/University 1.4 1.0 5.3 7.7

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216

Variables

Percentage migrating to:

Percentage in sample

Jakarta Other metro areas

Non-metro areas

Labour market participation statusWorking in the formal sector 1.1 0.7 3.6 28.2

Not in the labour market or unemployed 0.5 0.4 2.9 41.2

Informal agriculture 0.0 0.0 3.5 11.2Informal non-agriculture 0.5 0.5 3.0 19.3

Marital statusNever married 1.0 0.6 4.0 26.6Divorced 0.5 0.4 3.0 1.7Widowed 0.2 0.2 1.7 5.1Married 0.5 0.4 2.9 66.6

The presence of under-fi ve in the HHNo under-fi ve 0.6 0.4 2.9 92.8Under-fi ve present 1.2 0.6 6.1 7.2

Total 0.6 0.4 3.2 100.0

Appendix 4.2. Percentage of inhabitants of other metro areas by type of migration (N= 349,190) (continued)

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217

App

endi

ces

Appendix 4.3. Percentage of inhabitants of non-metro areas by type of migration (N= 1,839,197)

VariablesPercentage migrating to:

Percentage in sampleJakarta Other metro

areasNon-metro areas

Age category15 – 22 0.7 1.4 1.2 21.623 – 29 0.7 1.2 1.6 17.230 – 54 0.2 0.5 0.7 45.855 – 69 0.1 0.2 0.3 11.270+ 0.0 0.2 0.3 4.2

Period of measurement2000 0.5 1.2 1.0 29.02005 0.3 0.3 0.8 36.02010 0.4 0.9 0.9 35.0

SexMale 0.3 0.8 1.0 49.8Female 0.4 0.8 0.8 50.2

Educational attainmentDid not fi nish compulsory education 0.1 0.2 0.4 22.4

Finished compulsory education 0.4 0.6 0.8 54.8

Finished senior education 0.6 1.8 1.6 18.6

Finished Diploma/University 0.6 1.5 1.9 4.2

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218

VariablesPercentage migrating to:

Percentage in sampleJakarta Other metro

areasNon-metro areas

Labour market participation statusWorking in the formal sector 1.2 2.2 1.8 16.7

Not in the labour market or unemployed 0.2 0.7 0.8 36.5

Informal agriculture 0.0 0.1 0.4 30.3Informal non-agriculture 0.3 0.7 1.0 16.6

Marital statusNever married 0.7 1.4 1.3 25.8Divorced 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.8Widowed 0.1 0.2 0.3 6.0Married 0.2 0.6 0.8 66.5

The presence of under-fi ve in the HHNo under-fi ve 0.3 0.8 0.9 86.7Under-fi ve present 0.4 0.7 1.2 13.3

Total 0.4 0.8 0.9 100.0

Appendix 4.3. Percentage of inhabitants of non-metro areas by type of migration (N= 1,839,197)(continued)

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2182017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 218 31-8-2017 10:03:4231-8-2017 10:03:42

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219

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

13.

164

1.3

65

2.9

90

0.8

74

4.1

38

1.5

57

1.8

80

1.0

06

3.6

41

1.6

87

0.9

62

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 0

.835

2

.413

0

.456

2

.176

0

.931

1

.167

0

.690

1

.833

1

.306

0

.664

0

.616

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

1.3

10

- 2

.832

0

.602

1

.882

0

.938

1

.519

0

.678

2

.583

1

.180

1

.012

1

.009

4. R

oWJB

*

1.2

06

0.1

19

- 0

.044

0

.318

0

.116

0

.058

0

.083

0

.232

0

.149

0

.038

0

.036

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

0

.580

0

.192

0

.287

-

2.0

48

0.2

55

0.3

05

0.1

11

0.6

91

0.5

96

0.1

94

0.1

70

6. R

oCJY

*

0.2

23

0.1

72

0.3

79

0.4

76

- 0

.196

0

.251

0

.127

0

.592

0

.418

0

.138

0

.133

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

0.5

66

0.4

17

0.6

43

0.3

40

0.7

40

- 2

.427

0

.466

0

.983

0

.675

0

.493

0

.500

8. R

oEJ

*

0.9

22

0.4

52

0.4

99

0.4

47

1.1

96

4.5

29

- 0

.348

0

.760

2

.210

0

.226

0

.414

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

0

.565

0

.292

0

.194

0

.096

0

.151

0

.250

0

.125

-

4.1

86

0.2

77

0.1

41

0.1

28

10. R

oS *

1

.675

0

.886

1

.158

0

.684

0

.908

0

.878

1

.964

0

.730

-

1.3

66

1.1

36

0.6

40

11. K

alim

anta

n *

0

.914

0

.398

0

.416

0

.341

1

.771

0

.534

1

.695

0

.219

1

.133

-

1.0

29

0.7

56

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

0.1

88

0.1

60

0.2

28

0.1

07

0.2

23

0.4

11

0.2

26

0.1

25

0.4

65

0.3

16

- 1

.416

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.909

0

.450

0

.445

0

.311

1

.403

0

.817

1

.607

0

.307

1

.084

1

.681

0

.794

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

1. R

egre

ssio

n co

effi c

ient

of s

atur

ated

mul

tino

mia

l log

it o

f Ori

gin

and

Des

tina

tion

([O

][D

]), 2

025-

2030

fo

r B

asel

ine

Scen

ario

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220

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

13.

779

1.5

23

3.3

29

0.8

95

4.7

48

1.8

82

1.9

49

1.1

38

3.9

76

1.9

09

1.1

26

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 0

.662

2

.294

0

.392

1

.929

0

.864

0

.939

0

.630

1

.506

1

.068

0

.499

0

.404

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

1.4

55

- 2

.851

0

.664

2

.085

1

.002

1

.551

0

.744

2

.908

1

.259

1

.059

1

.018

4. R

oWJB

*

1.2

06

0.1

29

- 0

.043

0

.322

0

.117

0

.054

0

.082

0

.232

0

.154

0

.037

0

.042

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

0

.546

0

.179

0

.288

-

1.9

32

0.3

02

0.2

39

0.1

11

0.6

27

0.5

75

0.1

70

0.1

54

6. R

oCJY

*

0.2

21

0.1

72

0.3

84

0.4

77

- 0

.196

0

.250

0

.121

0

.583

0

.428

0

.138

0

.130

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

0.7

76

0.5

16

0.9

19

0.4

41

1.0

00

- 2

.889

0

.578

1

.332

0

.838

0

.635

0

.689

8. R

oEJ

*

0.8

60

0.4

77

0.4

55

0.4

65

1.1

91

4.4

72

- 0

.370

0

.776

2

.215

0

.228

0

.343

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

0

.565

0

.276

0

.190

0

.121

0

.168

0

.240

0

.138

-

4.1

75

0.2

98

0.1

31

0.1

25

10. R

oS *

1

.743

0

.927

0

.973

0

.668

0

.771

0

.899

1

.940

0

.738

-

1.4

37

1.0

12

0.4

82

11. K

alim

anta

n *

0

.923

0

.423

0

.473

0

.332

1

.842

0

.584

1

.768

0

.265

1

.195

-

0.9

93

0.7

32

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

0.2

16

0.1

73

0.2

77

0.1

28

0.2

64

0.3

82

0.2

56

0.1

63

0.5

18

0.3

02

- 1

.422

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.890

0

.463

0

.463

0

.299

1

.351

0

.815

1

.611

0

.307

1

.096

1

.655

0

.800

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

2. R

egre

ssio

n co

effi c

ient

of s

atur

ated

mul

tino

mia

l log

it o

f Ori

gin

and

Des

tina

tion

([O

][D

]), 2

025-

2030

fo

r Sc

enar

io 1

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2202017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 220 31-8-2017 10:03:4231-8-2017 10:03:42

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221

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

12.

682

1.1

34

2.6

01

0.8

41

3.5

60

1.3

20

1.6

54

0.9

31

3.1

69

1.5

80

0.9

47

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 0

.975

2

.676

0

.607

2

.476

1

.049

1

.527

0

.786

2

.469

1

.531

0

.849

0

.753

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

1.0

74

- 2

.398

0

.530

1

.467

0

.748

1

.211

0

.564

2

.074

0

.935

0

.894

0

.883

4. R

oWJB

*

1.2

10

0.1

29

- 0

.047

0

.318

0

.114

0

.062

0

.086

0

.240

0

.141

0

.038

0

.038

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

0

.583

0

.194

0

.280

-

2.0

46

0.2

67

0.2

87

0.1

07

0.6

83

0.6

56

0.1

98

0.1

62

6. R

oCJY

*

0.2

31

0.1

89

0.3

83

0.4

77

- 0

.195

0

.249

0

.123

0

.599

0

.417

0

.139

0

.144

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

0.4

83

0.3

37

0.5

10

0.3

40

0.5

91

- 2

.098

0

.433

0

.787

0

.589

0

.371

0

.411

8. R

oEJ

*

0.8

84

0.4

41

0.4

90

0.4

45

1.1

77

4.4

61

- 0

.331

0

.819

2

.141

0

.254

0

.398

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

0

.536

0

.279

0

.198

0

.106

0

.143

0

.215

0

.124

-

4.0

68

0.3

11

0.1

22

0.1

30

10. R

oS *

1

.594

0

.865

1

.501

0

.681

1

.212

0

.860

1

.912

0

.754

-

1.3

29

1.2

86

0.8

39

11. K

alim

anta

n *

0

.957

0

.417

0

.472

0

.400

1

.855

0

.540

1

.749

0

.162

1

.191

-

1.2

77

0.7

19

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

0.1

61

0.1

16

0.2

00

0.0

77

0.1

98

0.3

15

0.1

78

0.1

16

0.3

98

0.2

56

- 1

.284

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.888

0

.458

0

.420

0

.327

1

.358

0

.785

1

.592

0

.290

1

.072

1

.621

0

.896

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

3. R

egre

ssio

n co

effi c

ient

of s

atur

ated

mul

tino

mia

l log

it o

f Ori

gin

and

Des

tina

tion

([O

][D

]), 2

025-

2030

fo

r Sc

enar

io 2

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2212017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 221 31-8-2017 10:03:4231-8-2017 10:03:42

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222

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

0.8

63

0.9

29

0.9

47

0.9

00

0.9

55

0.9

45

0.8

86

0.8

54

0.8

67

0.8

68

0.9

90

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 1

.861

1

.300

1

.828

1

.542

1

.746

1

.822

1

.777

1

.922

1

.744

1

.903

1

.919

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

1.5

93

- 1

.213

1

.333

1

.170

1

.638

1

.568

1

.659

1

.321

1

.400

1

.505

1

.651

4. R

oWJB

*

0.9

58

1.0

95

- 0

.979

0

.959

0

.960

0

.866

1

.057

0

.774

0

.940

0

.927

1

.053

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

1

.019

1

.342

0

.951

-

0.9

71

0.9

69

0.9

42

2.1

97

0.9

00

0.9

77

0.8

31

0.8

41

6. R

oCJY

*

1.0

68

1.0

59

1.0

15

1.0

11

- 1

.039

1

.015

1

.091

1

.011

1

.006

0

.976

0

.908

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

1.2

67

1.5

79

1.3

43

1.2

21

1.1

80

- 1

.225

1

.396

1

.295

1

.073

1

.333

1

.257

8. R

oEJ

*

1.2

33

1.2

05

1.0

16

1.0

74

1.0

37

1.0

33

- 1

.165

0

.816

1

.021

1

.344

0

.922

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

1

.116

1

.063

0

.951

1

.830

0

.943

1

.571

2

.271

-

1.1

11

1.0

01

1.8

68

1.1

28

10. R

oS *

1

.625

1

.672

1

.722

1

.631

1

.636

1

.347

1

.588

1

.029

-

1.1

86

1.7

10

1.7

73

11. K

alim

anta

n *

1

.499

1

6.01

3 2

.826

7

.536

1

.247

2

.108

1

.113

0

.942

1

.570

-

1.2

18

1.6

21

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

0.7

52

0.7

43

1.8

64

1.2

30

1.7

29

1.7

27

1.3

25

1.4

75

0.9

94

0.8

89

- 1

.232

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

1

.099

1

.094

1

.039

1

.026

1

.088

1

.083

1

.061

1

.881

1

.081

1

.034

0

.752

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

4. R

egre

ssio

n co

effi c

ient

of s

atur

ated

mul

tino

mia

l log

it O

rigi

n, D

esti

nati

on a

nd T

ime

([O

][D

][T=

3]),

201

0-20

15

for

Bas

elin

e Sc

enar

io

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2222017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 222 31-8-2017 10:03:4231-8-2017 10:03:42

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223

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

0.9

21

1.0

47

1.0

68

0.9

64

1.1

20

1.1

50

0.9

39

0.9

72

1.0

24

0.9

91

1.0

67

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 3

.736

2

.207

3

.576

2

.759

3

.085

3

.466

3

.319

3

.907

3

.532

3

.474

3

.438

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

2.4

38

- 1

.332

1

.713

1

.429

2

.015

2

.220

1

.957

1

.913

2

.108

2

.357

2

.404

4. R

oWJB

*

0.8

97

1.0

25

- 0

.775

0

.938

0

.970

0

.845

1

.026

0

.689

0

.876

0

.832

0

.971

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

1

.052

1

.584

0

.871

-

0.9

80

1.1

16

0.8

80

2.7

11

0.8

97

1.0

06

0.9

14

0.7

43

6. R

oCJY

*

1.1

99

1.1

39

1.0

18

1.0

20

- 1

.059

1

.012

1

.063

1

.015

0

.980

0

.954

0

.823

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

1.4

82

1.8

94

1.5

71

1.5

04

1.2

20

- 1

.254

1

.578

1

.443

1

.167

1

.619

1

.474

8. R

oEJ

*

1.3

12

1.2

24

1.0

12

1.0

96

1.0

45

1.0

40

- 1

.111

0

.999

1

.016

1

.239

0

.733

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

1

.101

0

.988

0

.919

2

.598

0

.939

1

.596

2

.025

-

1.0

69

0.9

56

1.8

84

1.1

87

10. R

oS *

2

.590

2

.486

2

.766

2

.558

2

.470

1

.687

2

.488

0

.988

-

1.7

69

2.6

94

2.8

30

11. K

alim

anta

n *

2

.096

44

.788

7

.166

19

.408

1

.687

4

.029

1

.442

0

.829

2

.269

-

1.5

44

2.5

00

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

1.5

38

1.8

91

3.3

30

1.2

33

2.7

22

1.7

37

1.8

17

1.7

85

1.0

45

0.8

55

- 1

.259

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

1

.029

1

.076

1

.031

0

.927

1

.015

1

.048

1

.006

1

.706

0

.995

0

.979

0

.570

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

5. R

egre

ssio

n co

effi c

ient

of s

atur

ated

mul

tino

mia

l log

it O

rigi

n, D

esti

nati

on a

nd T

ime

([O

][D

][T=

4]),

201

5-20

20

for

Bas

elin

e Sc

enar

io

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2232017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 223 31-8-2017 10:03:4231-8-2017 10:03:42

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224

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

0.9

08

1.0

77

1.1

25

0.9

99

1.1

49

1.1

28

0.8

92

0.9

38

1.0

02

0.9

48

1.0

05

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 5

.497

3

.088

4

.696

4

.023

4

.371

4

.503

4

.769

5

.538

5

.257

3

.869

3

.472

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

3.6

95

- 1

.612

2

.880

2

.030

3

.042

3

.599

2

.953

3

.065

3

.051

3

.734

3

.763

4. R

oWJB

*

0.8

57

0.9

71

- 0

.882

0

.905

0

.953

0

.742

0

.976

0

.590

0

.861

0

.871

0

.817

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

1

.003

1

.570

1

.022

-

0.9

68

1.0

96

0.9

65

4.1

75

0.8

77

0.9

93

0.8

07

0.8

01

6. R

oCJY

*

1.2

01

1.3

12

1.0

50

1.0

40

- 1

.118

1

.032

1

.147

1

.019

0

.968

0

.949

0

.809

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

2.0

94

2.2

29

2.2

86

1.9

69

1.5

99

- 1

.696

2

.224

1

.977

1

.395

2

.153

2

.030

8. R

oEJ

*

1.4

17

1.3

88

0.9

73

1.2

17

1.1

04

1.1

02

- 1

.183

1

.095

1

.068

1

.627

0

.698

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

1

.044

1

.038

0

.839

2

.602

0

.869

1

.275

1

.766

-

1.0

31

1.0

08

1.5

34

0.8

98

10. R

oS *

4

.028

4

.013

4

.079

3

.873

3

.429

2

.400

3

.843

0

.967

-

2.7

14

4.1

96

4.0

34

11. K

alim

anta

n *

2

.359

6

2.65

5 7

.924

29

.485

1

.771

4

.344

1

.532

1

.382

2

.543

-

1.2

97

2.7

00

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

1.9

62

2.7

16

4.4

14

1.3

38

3.4

07

2.0

26

1.8

92

1.5

49

1.0

12

0.8

59

- 1

.167

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

1

.034

1

.047

1

.096

0

.879

0

.975

1

.039

0

.991

1

.628

0

.965

0

.943

0

.477

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

6. R

egre

ssio

n co

effi c

ient

of s

atur

ated

mul

tino

mia

l log

it O

rigi

n, D

esti

nati

on a

nd T

ime

([O

][D

][T=

5]),

202

0-20

25

for

Bas

elin

e Sc

enar

io

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2242017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 224 31-8-2017 10:03:4231-8-2017 10:03:42

Page 46: University of Groningen Interregional migration in ... · 198 Appendix 2.1. List of variables for migrant status-origin-time model Variable Category Remark Dependent Variable Migrant

225

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

0.9

84

1.2

43

1.2

52

0.9

82

1.3

72

1.3

09

0.9

79

1.0

23

1.1

63

1.1

18

1.1

49

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 6

.004

3

.670

4

.464

4

.612

4

.892

4

.051

5

.445

4

.991

6

.143

3

.749

2

.864

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

5.0

52

- 1

.728

3

.669

2

.513

3

.920

4

.541

4

.016

4

.261

4

.162

4

.494

4

.549

4. R

oWJB

*

0.8

04

0.8

73

- 0

.740

0

.873

0

.929

0

.686

1

.007

0

.526

0

.773

0

.977

0

.839

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

0

.971

1

.729

0

.917

-

0.9

96

1.1

34

0.9

40

6.1

45

0.8

51

1.0

10

0.8

45

0.7

77

6. R

oCJY

*

1.2

48

1.4

14

1.0

64

1.0

57

- 1

.111

1

.057

1

.150

1

.011

0

.986

0

.967

0

.740

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

2.7

24

3.1

30

2.8

49

2.4

20

2.0

26

- 1

.854

2

.469

2

.527

1

.811

2

.937

2

.638

8. R

oEJ

*

1.5

81

1.5

16

1.0

05

1.1

56

1.1

55

1.1

37

- 1

.269

1

.078

1

.094

1

.733

0

.725

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

0

.822

0

.951

0

.810

1

.599

0

.680

1

.168

1

.462

-

0.9

14

0.7

75

1.5

89

0.7

41

10. R

oS *

4

.939

4

.735

4

.006

4

.405

2

.779

2

.649

4

.511

0

.876

-

3.2

96

4.5

08

3.3

51

11. K

alim

anta

n *

2

.823

8

6.77

5 9

.500

38

.364

2

.182

4

.915

1

.851

2

.284

3

.179

-

1.5

96

3.3

35

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

2.0

75

3.0

92

4.8

01

2.3

36

3.5

73

2.1

28

2.1

09

1.7

00

0.9

40

0.7

86

- 1

.119

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

1

.037

1

.054

1

.092

0

.774

0

.956

1

.026

0

.983

1

.734

0

.938

0

.935

0

.435

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

7. R

egre

ssio

n co

effi c

ient

of s

atur

ated

mul

tino

mia

l log

it O

rigi

n, D

esti

nati

on a

nd T

ime

([O

][D

][T=

6]),

202

5-20

30

for

Bas

elin

e Sc

enar

io

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2252017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 225 31-8-2017 10:03:4231-8-2017 10:03:42

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226

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

0.9

11

1.2

75

1.1

98

0.9

85

1.3

48

1.2

17

0.9

65

0.9

78

1.0

91

1.0

89

1.1

08

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 5

.388

3

.521

3

.344

4

.140

4

.479

3

.234

4

.922

3

.733

5

.597

2

.895

2

.575

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

7.0

12

- 2

.165

4

.648

3

.531

5

.252

6

.136

5

.512

5

.946

6

.049

5

.823

5

.598

4. R

oWJB

*

0.7

68

0.8

17

- 0

.807

0

.844

0

.943

0

.634

0

.919

0

.499

0

.728

0

.894

0

.649

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

0

.912

1

.540

0

.893

-

0.9

51

0.9

95

0.9

59

5.6

48

0.8

36

0.8

78

0.8

10

0.7

50

6. R

oCJY

*

1.2

62

1.4

10

1.0

55

1.0

67

- 1

.152

1

.069

1

.230

1

.032

1

.012

0

.962

0

.701

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

3.0

96

3.6

69

3.1

85

2.5

55

1.9

91

- 2

.095

2

.769

2

.949

1

.871

3

.170

2

.889

8. R

oEJ

*

1.7

32

1.5

63

1.0

68

1.2

17

1.1

69

1.1

57

- 1

.283

1

.035

1

.094

1

.720

0

.737

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

0

.807

0

.879

0

.707

1

.688

0

.640

1

.321

1

.296

-

0.8

72

0.7

32

1.6

49

0.8

32

10. R

oS *

5

.183

4

.813

2

.948

4

.351

2

.068

2

.629

4

.473

0

.860

-

3.4

58

4.1

60

2.3

13

11. K

alim

anta

n *

2

.922

83

.946

8

.773

3

5.92

3 2

.237

5

.366

1

.913

7

.689

3

.186

-

1.2

47

3.7

11

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

2.5

93

4.5

81

6.0

76

3.6

29

4.3

74

2.5

10

2.4

12

2.4

45

0.9

85

0.9

42

- 1

.220

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

1

.063

1

.093

1

.144

0

.848

0

.972

1

.094

1

.015

1

.939

0

.958

0

.988

0

.422

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

8. R

egre

ssio

n co

effi c

ient

of s

atur

ated

mul

tino

mia

l log

it O

rigi

n, D

esti

nati

on a

nd T

ime

([O

][D

][T=

7]),

203

0-20

35

for

Bas

elin

e Sc

enar

io

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2262017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 226 31-8-2017 10:03:4231-8-2017 10:03:42

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227

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

1.0

94

1.2

16

1.2

15

1.0

45

1.2

40

1.2

10

1.1

73

1.2

45

1.1

72

1.1

89

1.2

24

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 1

.964

1

.425

1

.875

1

.664

1

.801

1

.946

1

.979

2

.019

1

.926

1

.892

1

.886

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

1.5

81

- 1

.044

1

.208

1

.143

1

.312

1

.395

1

.206

1

.279

1

.363

1

.409

1

.498

4. R

oWJB

*

0.9

59

1.0

04

- 0

.953

0

.984

1

.090

1

.014

0

.988

0

.785

0

.980

1

.157

1

.128

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

1

.001

1

.075

0

.944

-

0.9

76

1.0

95

0.8

67

2.6

27

0.8

79

0.9

55

1.0

15

0.9

32

6. R

oCJY

*

1.0

64

1.2

22

1.0

37

1.0

19

- 1

.045

1

.035

1

.056

1

.018

0

.959

1

.059

1

.006

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

1.2

91

1.3

80

1.3

54

1.3

88

1.1

14

- 1

.266

1

.807

1

.289

1

.223

1

.360

1

.318

8. R

oEJ

*

1.1

79

1.1

71

1.0

10

1.0

86

1.0

20

1.0

32

- 1

.050

0

.957

1

.013

1

.490

0

.867

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

1

.063

1

.057

1

.025

1

.653

1

.103

1

.314

1

.311

-

1.0

66

0.9

65

1.4

66

1.3

92

10. R

oS *

1

.498

1

.535

1

.560

1

.549

1

.537

1

.371

1

.546

0

.998

-

1.1

70

1.6

09

1.5

90

11. K

alim

anta

n *

1

.198

1

.786

1

.731

1

.786

1

.041

1

.858

1

.000

1

.116

1

.088

-

1.1

35

1.1

71

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

0.7

95

1.1

73

1.2

49

1.0

95

1.3

89

1.2

97

0.9

95

1.1

56

0.9

24

0.9

00

- 1

.002

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

1

.003

1

.014

0

.985

0

.982

0

.982

1

.008

0

.975

1

.163

0

.978

0

.986

0

.770

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

9. R

egre

ssio

n co

effi c

ient

of s

atur

ated

mul

tino

mia

l log

it O

rigi

n, D

esti

nati

on a

nd T

ime

([O

][D

][T=

3]),

201

0-20

15

for

Scen

ario

1

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2272017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 227 31-8-2017 10:03:4231-8-2017 10:03:42

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228

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

1.0

17

1.1

74

1.1

80

0.9

82

1.2

15

1.1

92

1.1

22

1.1

44

1.1

66

1.1

21

1.1

96

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 3

.512

2

.294

3

.196

2

.949

2

.946

3

.226

3

.521

3

.783

3

.591

2

.844

2

.584

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

2.2

24

- 1

.161

1

.633

1

.344

1

.813

1

.914

1

.663

1

.824

1

.916

2

.115

2

.156

4. R

oWJB

*

0.9

19

0.9

15

- 0

.852

0

.947

1

.029

0

.911

1

.042

0

.682

0

.911

1

.116

1

.163

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

1

.026

0

.984

0

.915

-

0.9

75

1.0

61

0.8

30

3.3

10

0.9

36

0.9

24

0.8

47

0.8

42

6. R

oCJY

*

1.1

66

1.2

53

1.0

44

1.0

26

- 1

.052

1

.030

1

.085

1

.014

0

.999

0

.948

0

.871

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

1.6

23

1.5

93

1.6

92

1.4

95

1.1

97

- 1

.333

1

.585

1

.558

1

.225

1

.663

1

.678

8. R

oEJ

*

1.3

17

1.2

88

1.0

26

1.1

06

1.0

51

1.0

50

- 1

.108

0

.999

1

.022

1

.426

0

.709

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

0

.945

0

.961

0

.895

1

.541

0

.988

1

.393

1

.718

-

1.0

51

0.9

85

1.3

54

0.9

68

10. R

oS *

2

.907

2

.903

2

.950

2

.818

2

.671

2

.095

2

.855

1

.006

-

2.1

06

3.0

11

2.9

95

11. K

alim

anta

n *

1

.630

5

.622

3

.858

5

.795

1

.401

3

.104

1

.268

0

.661

1

.624

-

1.2

15

1.6

77

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

1.6

50

2.1

69

2.2

93

2.3

09

2.3

36

1.5

29

1.2

76

1.4

80

1.0

34

0.8

05

- 1

.126

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.973

1

.053

1

.056

0

.919

0

.934

1

.008

0

.947

1

.038

0

.930

0

.932

0

.588

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

10.

Reg

ress

ion

coeffi

cie

nt o

f sat

urat

ed m

ulti

nom

ial l

ogit

Ori

gin,

Des

tina

tion

and

Tim

e ([

O][

D][

T=4]

), 2

015-

2020

fo

r Sc

enar

io 1

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2282017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 228 31-8-2017 10:03:4231-8-2017 10:03:42

Page 50: University of Groningen Interregional migration in ... · 198 Appendix 2.1. List of variables for migrant status-origin-time model Variable Category Remark Dependent Variable Migrant

229

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

0.9

20

1.0

52

1.0

48

0.8

91

1.1

83

1.1

00

1.0

21

1.0

77

1.0

21

1.0

57

0.9

42

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 4

.474

3

.002

3

.264

3

.763

3

.710

3

.342

4

.361

4

.002

4

.680

2

.701

2

.109

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

3.6

90

- 1

.321

2

.634

2

.070

2

.600

3

.074

2

.607

3

.084

3

.028

3

.268

3

.532

4. R

oWJB

*

0.8

67

0.9

47

- 0

.913

0

.920

1

.063

0

.797

0

.917

0

.600

0

.825

1

.084

0

.999

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

0

.915

0

.989

0

.949

-

0.9

76

1.2

94

0.9

47

5.5

31

0.8

05

0.9

42

0.8

48

0.9

44

6. R

oCJY

*

1.1

82

1.4

29

1.0

55

1.0

44

- 1

.073

1

.055

1

.075

1

.029

0

.998

0

.990

0

.812

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

2.3

44

1.9

98

2.1

84

1.8

76

1.4

25

- 1

.618

1

.994

2

.143

1

.706

2

.290

2

.113

8. R

oEJ

*

1.4

21

1.4

35

1.0

54

1.1

57

1.1

05

1.0

89

- 1

.190

1

.043

1

.030

1

.679

0

.693

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

0

.927

0

.945

0

.757

1

.308

0

.898

1

.154

1

.185

-

0.9

67

0.9

10

1.2

22

0.9

94

10. R

oS *

3

.781

3

.771

3

.264

3

.520

2

.498

2

.485

3

.677

0

.889

-

2.7

53

3.7

23

3.0

78

11. K

alim

anta

n *

2

.191

8

.970

5

.774

1

0.12

3 1

.832

3

.803

1

.629

4

.485

2

.123

-

1.1

67

2.2

94

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

2.1

01

2.7

36

3.1

31

3.0

65

2.7

70

1.5

99

1.5

47

1.5

32

1.0

12

0.7

72

- 1

.134

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.998

1

.079

1

.062

0

.916

0

.917

1

.011

0

.952

1

.056

0

.925

0

.938

0

.519

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

11.

Reg

ress

ion

coeffi

cie

nt o

f sat

urat

ed m

ulti

nom

ial l

ogit

Ori

gin,

Des

tina

tion

and

Tim

e ([

O][

D][

T=5]

), 2

020-

2025

fo

r Sc

enar

io 1

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230

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

0.9

55

1.1

33

1.2

29

0.9

25

1.3

15

1.1

75

1.0

37

1.1

17

1.1

09

1.1

64

1.0

36

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 4

.175

3

.041

2

.656

3

.614

3

.596

2

.453

4

.186

3

.040

4

.373

2

.013

1

.679

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

5.1

08

- 1

.621

3

.416

2

.714

3

.472

3

.969

3

.603

4

.222

4

.240

4

.092

4

.197

4. R

oWJB

*

0.8

12

0.8

94

- 0

.745

0

.894

0

.981

0

.958

0

.899

0

.573

0

.792

0

.955

0

.848

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

0

.874

1

.053

0

.858

-

0.9

52

1.2

79

0.8

74

5.6

05

0.8

24

0.9

54

0.8

05

0.8

25

6. R

oCJY

*

1.1

42

1.6

11

1.0

67

1.0

60

- 1

.123

1

.084

1

.127

1

.033

0

.980

1

.007

0

.777

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

2.6

81

2.4

15

2.8

57

2.3

77

1.7

45

- 1

.906

2

.246

2

.606

1

.889

2

.875

2

.642

8. R

oEJ

*

1.4

53

1.4

91

1.0

16

1.1

75

1.1

52

1.1

22

- 1

.237

1

.158

1

.069

1

.736

0

.694

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

0

.829

0

.855

0

.627

1

.384

0

.780

1

.097

1

.264

-

0.8

71

0.7

68

1.1

40

0.7

74

10. R

oS *

4

.143

3

.972

2

.575

3

.620

1

.917

2

.524

3

.795

0

.843

-

3.0

24

3.5

35

2.0

81

11. K

alim

anta

n *

2

.280

1

0.04

1 5

.800

1

0.36

1 1

.897

4

.211

1

.699

9

.553

2

.309

-

1.0

90

2.4

16

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

2.4

65

3.9

80

3.8

51

4.3

65

3.4

07

1.8

52

1.7

99

1.9

31

1.0

02

0.8

41

- 1

.198

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.955

1

.167

1

.112

0

.832

0

.905

1

.032

0

.947

1

.197

0

.909

0

.938

0

.461

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

12.

Reg

ress

ion

coeffi

cie

nt o

f sat

urat

ed m

ulti

nom

ial l

ogit

Ori

gin,

Des

tina

tion

and

Tim

e ([

O][

D][

T=6]

),

2025

-203

0 fo

r Sc

enar

io 1

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2302017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 230 31-8-2017 10:03:4231-8-2017 10:03:42

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231

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

1.0

24

1.3

42

1.3

16

0.9

92

1.5

04

1.3

80

1.1

00

1.2

18

1.1

95

1.2

81

1.3

51

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 3

.281

2

.952

2

.167

3

.121

3

.290

1

.981

3

.861

2

.330

3

.671

1

.623

1

.247

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

6.1

83

- 1

.742

3

.749

3

.346

4

.134

4

.450

4

.332

5

.151

5

.043

4

.570

4

.294

4. R

oWJB

*

0.7

76

0.8

84

- 0

.845

0

.867

1

.001

0

.698

0

.833

0

.513

0

.760

0

.975

0

.948

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

0

.908

1

.015

0

.904

-

0.8

89

1.2

22

0.7

25

4.4

84

0.7

44

0.8

06

0.7

97

0.8

03

6. R

oCJY

*

1.3

05

1.5

44

1.0

76

1.0

70

- 1

.129

1

.068

1

.133

1

.018

1

.048

0

.968

0

.710

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

3.5

07

3.3

48

3.7

82

2.9

77

2.2

53

- 2

.339

3

.229

3

.579

2

.318

3

.546

3

.568

8. R

oEJ

*

1.5

72

1.6

48

0.9

67

1.2

29

1.1

58

1.1

36

- 1

.322

1

.173

1

.073

1

.771

0

.620

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

0

.760

0

.754

0

.646

1

.264

0

.734

1

.112

1

.121

-

0.8

35

0.7

32

1.1

24

0.6

63

10. R

oS *

4

.308

4

.120

1

.939

3

.408

1

.409

2

.522

3

.602

0

.837

-

3.1

83

2.9

97

1.3

44

11. K

alim

anta

n *

2

.441

1

1.04

6 6

.181

9

.919

2

.059

4

.881

1

.839

1

3.85

2 2

.472

-

1.0

59

2.5

06

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

2.7

17

4.8

13

4.7

04

5.5

43

3.9

62

1.8

40

1.9

19

2.3

51

1.0

99

0.8

73

- 1

.141

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.991

1

.198

1

.173

0

.887

0

.886

1

.067

0

.969

1

.218

0

.917

0

.958

0

.472

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

13.

Reg

ress

ion

coeffi

cie

nt o

f sat

urat

ed m

ulti

nom

ial l

ogit

Ori

gin,

Des

tina

tion

and

Tim

e ([

O][

D][

T=7]

),

2030

-203

5 fo

r Sc

enar

io 1

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232

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

0.9

60

1.0

60

1.1

13

0.9

78

1.0

87

1.0

63

0.9

88

1.0

53

1.0

73

1.0

37

1.0

20

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 1

.679

1

.219

1

.740

1

.374

1

.590

1

.677

1

.775

1

.717

1

.527

1

.762

1

.754

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

1.2

64

- 0

.920

1

.505

1

.036

1

.433

1

.235

1

.405

1

.194

1

.204

1

.305

1

.412

4. R

oWJB

*

0.9

49

1.0

14

- 0

.867

0

.964

1

.030

0

.825

1

.235

0

.785

0

.875

1

.015

0

.771

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

1

.034

1

.198

1

.113

-

0.9

63

1.1

56

1.1

26

0.2

30

0.9

05

0.9

72

1.0

70

0.8

79

6. R

oCJY

*

0.9

46

1.1

12

1.0

11

1.0

24

- 1

.012

1

.031

1

.174

1

.004

1

.014

1

.000

0

.906

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

1.3

53

2.0

19

1.4

48

1.2

71

1.1

44

- 1

.287

1

.544

1

.305

1

.230

1

.596

1

.439

8. R

oEJ

*

1.1

35

1.1

22

1.0

21

1.0

49

1.0

23

1.0

11

- 1

.155

0

.827

1

.016

1

.235

0

.847

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

1

.251

1

.096

1

.357

1

.270

1

.039

1

.023

1

.559

-

1.3

59

0.8

80

3.4

15

2.2

98

10. R

oS *

1

.426

1

.591

1

.576

1

.464

1

.538

1

.149

1

.532

1

.174

-

1.2

66

1.4

99

1.5

99

11. K

alim

anta

n *

1

.332

2

.115

1

.598

1

.410

1

.073

1

.622

0

.945

0

.423

1

.393

-

1.2

47

1.6

66

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

1.3

76

1.0

38

1.5

22

0.8

61

4.3

58

1.7

43

0.9

02

2.0

44

0.8

82

1.1

36

- 1

.054

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.930

0

.772

0

.970

0

.884

0

.933

0

.980

0

.918

1

.639

0

.918

0

.925

0

.730

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

14.

Reg

ress

ion

coeffi

cie

nt o

f sat

urat

ed m

ulti

nom

ial l

ogit

Ori

gin,

Des

tina

tion

and

Tim

e ([

O][

D][

T=3]

),

2010

-201

5 fo

r Sc

enar

io 2

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233

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

0.9

38

1.0

20

1.0

86

0.9

96

1.1

08

1.0

87

0.8

81

1.0

26

1.0

34

1.0

53

1.0

20

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 2

.972

1

.747

2

.937

2

.149

2

.423

2

.970

2

.879

3

.154

2

.738

2

.992

2

.932

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

1.9

64

- 1

.074

1

.857

1

.256

1

.659

1

.788

1

.720

1

.740

1

.630

1

.864

2

.098

4. R

oWJB

*

0.9

08

0.9

13

- 0

.916

0

.926

1

.029

0

.638

1

.114

0

.691

0

.856

0

.956

0

.736

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

1

.023

1

.469

0

.947

-

0.9

48

1.3

11

1.1

35

1.1

02

0.8

98

1.0

03

0.9

30

0.7

15

6. R

oCJY

*

1.0

76

1.1

56

1.0

35

1.0

35

- 1

.056

1

.046

1

.188

1

.023

1

.016

0

.996

0

.851

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

1.6

84

2.4

93

1.7

34

1.5

48

1.1

98

- 1

.443

1

.619

1

.669

1

.450

2

.188

1

.813

8. R

oEJ

*

1.2

22

1.1

51

1.0

02

1.0

30

1.0

31

1.0

16

- 1

.278

0

.865

0

.995

1

.268

0

.755

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

1

.249

1

.110

1

.279

1

.874

0

.962

1

.274

2

.623

-

1.4

47

0.9

94

6.9

74

2.4

29

10. R

oS *

2

.221

2

.275

2

.521

2

.275

2

.324

1

.472

2

.343

1

.279

-

1.7

65

2.4

14

2.5

59

11. K

alim

anta

n *

2

.032

1

0.70

3 4

.459

5

.946

1

.422

2

.490

1

.206

1

.189

2

.031

-

1.4

71

2.6

20

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

1.6

24

1.4

89

3.8

13

1.2

97

6.2

56

1.6

82

1.0

05

1.8

54

0.9

09

1.0

81

- 1

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13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.920

0

.766

0

.937

0

.844

0

.881

0

.949

0

.889

1

.904

0

.886

0

.874

0

.539

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

15.

Reg

ress

ion

coeffi

cie

nt o

f sat

urat

ed m

ulti

nom

ial l

ogit

Ori

gin,

Des

tina

tion

and

Tim

e ([

O][

D][

T=4]

),

2015

-202

0 fo

r Sc

enar

io 2

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2332017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 233 31-8-2017 10:03:4331-8-2017 10:03:43

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234

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

1.0

35

1.2

93

1.2

71

0.9

82

1.3

32

1.2

39

0.9

66

1.1

21

1.1

80

1.2

11

1.0

26

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 5

.593

2

.904

5

.184

3

.953

4

.323

5

.351

5

.407

6

.031

5

.289

5

.263

4

.520

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

2.6

57

- 1

.096

2

.269

1

.429

2

.447

2

.438

2

.216

2

.341

2

.136

2

.625

2

.979

4. R

oWJB

*

0.8

56

0.9

01

- 0

.812

0

.906

1

.034

0

.639

1

.084

0

.628

0

.851

1

.017

0

.671

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

0

.998

1

.612

0

.966

-

0.9

43

1.2

47

1.0

53

1.6

24

0.8

73

1.0

06

0.9

41

0.6

44

6. R

oCJY

*

1.0

55

1.2

55

1.0

49

1.0

52

- 1

.089

1

.065

1

.201

1

.023

1

.021

1

.069

0

.776

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

2.0

70

3.4

25

2.2

89

2.0

91

1.5

10

- 1

.804

2

.036

2

.107

1

.628

2

.658

2

.295

8. R

oEJ

*

1.2

92

1.4

19

1.0

39

1.1

54

1.1

07

1.0

78

- 1

.349

1

.003

1

.034

1

.302

0

.694

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

1

.171

0

.980

1

.035

2

.328

0

.876

1

.283

2

.356

-

1.3

16

0.9

77

6.1

88

2.2

80

10. R

oS *

3

.571

3

.865

4

.035

3

.497

3

.696

1

.995

3

.704

1

.202

-

2.7

37

3.8

03

3.9

84

11. K

alim

anta

n *

2

.520

2

6.27

5 8

.445

1

6.89

1 1

.858

3

.441

1

.484

0

.938

2

.700

-

1.5

96

3.3

43

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

2.0

70

2.1

48

6.6

09

1.0

28

8.3

53

1.7

86

1.2

97

2.0

13

0.9

36

1.0

23

- 1

.149

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.983

0

.897

1

.101

0

.889

0

.931

1

.024

0

.929

1

.946

0

.921

0

.923

0

.492

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

16.

Reg

ress

ion

coeffi

cie

nt o

f sat

urat

ed m

ulti

nom

ial l

ogit

Ori

gin,

Des

tina

tion

and

Tim

e ([

O][

D][

T=5]

),

2020

-202

5 fo

r Sc

enar

io 2

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2342017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 234 31-8-2017 10:03:4331-8-2017 10:03:43

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235

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

0.9

35

1.1

45

1.1

94

0.9

75

1.2

72

1.1

29

0.8

78

1.0

86

1.0

95

1.1

91

1.0

55

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 7

.056

3

.587

5

.722

4

.914

5

.196

5

.877

6

.693

6

.773

6

.797

5

.097

4

.115

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

3.9

21

- 1

.361

3

.552

2

.051

3

.107

3

.553

3

.043

3

.572

3

.094

3

.737

4

.101

4. R

oWJB

*

0.8

15

0.7

81

- 0

.799

0

.868

1

.034

0

.600

1

.090

0

.526

0

.794

0

.946

0

.626

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

0

.886

1

.746

1

.104

-

0.9

22

1.3

73

1.0

39

2.4

65

0.8

74

0.9

70

0.9

72

0.7

53

6. R

oCJY

*

1.1

51

1.3

57

1.0

63

1.0

63

- 1

.109

1

.071

1

.232

1

.023

1

.006

1

.067

0

.718

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

2.6

21

4.4

21

2.6

99

2.3

25

1.6

51

- 1

.970

2

.523

2

.639

1

.827

3

.026

2

.867

8. R

oEJ

*

1.5

15

1.4

20

1.0

35

1.2

17

1.1

59

1.1

30

- 1

.418

1

.025

1

.076

1

.538

0

.725

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

1

.069

0

.969

1

.093

2

.280

0

.948

1

.116

2

.079

-

1.3

27

0.9

47

7.2

87

2.0

67

10. R

oS *

4

.934

4

.960

5

.037

4

.634

4

.027

2

.395

4

.922

1

.040

-

3.6

47

5.1

60

4.5

83

11. K

alim

anta

n *

3

.145

34

.968

9

.587

23

.009

2

.155

3

.898

1

.766

1

.968

3

.270

-

1.5

57

4.1

16

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

2.8

99

2.1

27

8.8

27

1.2

41

10.2

98

1.9

48

1.3

37

1.7

37

0.9

35

1.0

03

- 1

.229

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.935

0

.839

1

.070

0

.694

0

.845

0

.985

0

.871

1

.714

0

.876

0

.866

0

.415

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

17.

Reg

ress

ion

coeffi

cie

nt o

f sat

urat

ed m

ulti

nom

ial l

ogit

Ori

gin,

Des

tina

tion

and

Tim

e ([

O][

D][

T=6]

),

2025

-203

0 fo

r Sc

enar

io 2

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236

Ori

gin

Des

tin

atio

n

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

1. J

akar

ta -

0.9

80

1.2

27

1.3

02

1.1

00

1.4

20

1.2

27

0.9

86

1.1

29

1.1

73

1.2

51

1.0

64

*

2. B

odet

abek

*

- 7

.405

4

.158

5

.353

5

.416

5

.659

5

.229

7

.119

6

.020

7

.515

4

.557

3

.748

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

*

5.8

36

- 1

.545

4

.991

2

.886

4

.024

4

.873

4

.718

5

.180

4

.438

5

.237

5

.476

4. R

oWJB

*

0.7

73

0.7

72

- 0

.864

0

.848

1

.019

0

.626

1

.065

0

.523

0

.679

0

.878

0

.642

5. K

edun

gsep

ur *

0

.837

1

.743

0

.982

-

0.9

28

1.3

08

1.0

76

3.6

13

0.8

24

0.9

68

0.9

55

0.6

72

6. R

oCJY

*

1.1

75

1.4

46

1.0

78

1.0

84

- 1

.144

1

.080

1

.316

1

.052

1

.025

1

.035

0

.775

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

*

2.7

23

4.3

93

2.9

57

2.9

28

1.6

26

- 1

.863

2

.699

2

.938

1

.806

3

.196

3

.132

8. R

oEJ

*

1.4

69

1.4

61

1.0

66

1.1

84

1.1

51

1.1

21

- 1

.409

1

.045

1

.040

1

.614

0

.689

9. M

ebid

angr

o *

0

.930

0

.960

1

.060

1

.865

0

.751

1

.098

1

.777

-

1.1

68

0.8

41

5.5

20

2.1

55

10. R

oS *

5

.761

5

.766

4

.741

5

.183

3

.516

2

.649

5

.604

0

.993

-

4.2

94

5.6

82

3.7

10

11. K

alim

anta

n *

3

.511

4

1.28

5 1

0.39

1 2

6.40

0 2

.401

4

.459

1

.935

5

.336

3

.629

-

1.6

41

4.4

50

12. S

ulaw

esi

*

3.1

04

3.0

47

10.4

86

3.1

37

12.

129

1.9

24

1.4

83

2.3

70

0.8

70

0.9

60

- 1

.096

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia *

0

.954

0

.937

1

.066

0

.854

0

.862

1

.018

0

.910

1

.948

0

.865

0

.883

0

.401

-

*: r

efer

ence

cat

egor

y

App

endi

x 5.

18.

Reg

ress

ion

coeffi

cie

nt o

f sat

urat

ed m

ulti

nom

ial l

ogit

Ori

gin,

Des

tina

tion

and

Tim

e ([

O][

D][

T=7]

),

2030

-203

5 fo

r Sc

enar

io 2

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2362017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 236 31-8-2017 10:03:4331-8-2017 10:03:43

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237

App

endi

ces

Year

Com

pone

nts

Row

sC

olum

nsE

xcha

nges

Oth

er fl

ows

Ove

ral

(Out

-mig

rati

on)

In-m

igra

tion

tota

l fl o

ws

2010

- ob

serv

ed0.

044

0.04

30.

003

0.57

60.

666

(6.5

6%)

(6.4

9%)

(0.4

2%)

(86.

52%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2010

0.03

40.

038

0.00

20.

495

0.56

9

(6.0

6%)

(6.5

9%)

(0.4

1%)

(86.

93%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2015

0.03

20.

036

0.00

20.

470

0.54

0

(5.9

6%)

(6.6

3%)

(0.4

3%)

(86.

98%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2020

0.03

10.

035

0.00

20.

459

0.52

8

(5.9

2%)

(6.6

0%)

(0.4

5%)

(87.

03%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2025

0.03

10.

034

0.00

20.

454

0.52

1

(5.9

3%)

(6.5

8%)

(0.4

6%)

(87.

03%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2030

0.03

10.

034

0.00

20.

451

0.51

8

(5.9

3%)

(6.5

8%)

(0.4

7%)

(87.

02%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2035

0.03

10.

034

0.00

20.

449

0.51

6

(5.9

4%)

(6.6

1%)

(0.4

7%)

(86.

98%

)(1

00.0

0%)

App

endi

x 5.

19. T

otal

Flo

ws

Gin

i Ind

ex V

alue

s be

twee

n 20

10 a

nd 2

035

for

Inte

r-re

gion

al M

igra

tion

in I

ndon

esia

(B

asel

ine

Scen

ario

)

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2372017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 237 31-8-2017 10:03:4331-8-2017 10:03:43

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238

Year

Com

pone

nts

Row

sC

olum

nsE

xcha

nges

Oth

er fl

ows

Ove

ral

(Out

-mig

rati

on)

In-m

igra

tion

tota

l fl o

ws

2010

- ob

serv

ed0.

044

0.04

30.

003

0.57

60.

666

(6.5

6%)

(6.4

9%)

(0.4

2%)

(86.

52%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2010

0.03

40.

037

0.00

20.

485

0.55

8

(6.0

2%)

(6.6

3%)

(0.4

1%)

(86.

94%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2015

0.03

20.

036

0.00

20.

467

0.53

6

(5.8

9%)

(6.6

5%)

(0.4

4%)

(87.

02%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2020

0.03

10.

035

0.00

20.

456

0.52

4

(5.9

2%)

(6.5

9%)

(0.4

6%)

(87.

03%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2025

0.03

10.

034

0.00

20.

451

0.51

8

(5.9

2%)

(6.5

9%)

(0.4

7%)

(87.

02%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2030

0.03

10.

034

0.00

20.

450

0.51

7

(5.9

3%)

(6.6

1%)

(0.4

7%)

(87.

00%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2035

0.03

10.

034

0.00

20.

448

0.51

5

(5.9

7%)

(6.6

1%)

(0.4

6%)

(86.

95%

)(1

00.0

0%)

App

endi

x 5.

20. T

otal

Flo

ws

Gin

i Ind

ex V

alue

s be

twee

n 20

10 a

nd 2

035

for

Inte

r-re

gion

al M

igra

tion

in I

ndon

esia

(S

cena

rio

1)

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2382017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 238 31-8-2017 10:03:4331-8-2017 10:03:43

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239

App

endi

ces

Year

Com

pone

nts

Row

sC

olum

nsE

xcha

nges

Oth

er fl

ows

Ove

ral

(Out

-mig

rati

on)

In-m

igra

tion

tota

l fl o

ws

2010

- ob

serv

ed0.

044

0.04

30.

003

0.57

60.

666

(6.5

6%)

(6.4

9%)

(0.4

2%)

(86.

52%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2010

0.03

50.

038

0.00

20.

498

0.57

4

(6.1

5%)

(6.5

7%)

(0.4

0%)

(86.

88%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2015

0.03

30.

036

0.00

20.

478

0.55

0

(6.0

4%)

(6.6

3%)

(0.4

2%)

(86.

91%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2020

0.03

20.

035

0.00

20.

464

0.53

4

(5.9

8%)

(6.6

1%)

(0.4

4%)

(86.

97%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2025

0.03

10.

035

0.00

20.

457

0.52

5

(5.9

3%)

(6.6

0%)

(0.4

6%)

(87.

01%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2030

0.03

10.

034

0.00

20.

453

0.52

1

(5.9

2%)

(6.5

8%)

(0.4

7%)

(87.

02%

)(1

00.0

0%)

2035

0.03

00.

034

0.00

20.

448

0.51

5

(5.9

2%)

(6.6

0%)

(0.4

7%)

(87.

01%

)(1

00.0

0%)

App

endi

x 5.

21. T

otal

Flo

ws

Gin

i Ind

ex V

alue

s be

twee

n 20

10 a

nd 2

035

for

Inte

r-re

gion

al M

igra

tion

in I

ndon

esia

(S

cena

rio

2)

2017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 2392017_N_Wajdi_Dissertation.indb 239 31-8-2017 10:03:4331-8-2017 10:03:43

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240

Ori

gin

Out

-Mig

rati

onIn

-Mig

rati

on

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

1. J

akar

ta0.

441

0.42

90.

425

0.42

60.

425

0.41

70.

411

0.42

00.

433

0.44

20.

457

0.47

6

2. B

odet

abek

0.39

90.

302

0.28

10.

301

0.31

30.

323

0.69

70.

669

0.64

80.

639

0.63

20.

624

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

0.44

20.

377

0.32

60.

278

0.25

60.

262

0.41

80.

384

0.36

10.

359

0.35

00.

353

4. R

oWJB

0.59

20.

590

0.59

40.

596

0.59

60.

601

0.50

80.

494

0.47

10.

459

0.46

70.

481

5. K

edun

gsep

ur0.

477

0.47

30.

466

0.45

60.

451

0.45

70.

611

0.57

20.

548

0.52

20.

520

0.50

9

6. R

oCJY

0.37

90.

374

0.37

40.

365

0.36

40.

364

0.36

40.

346

0.34

40.

348

0.36

40.

373

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

0.42

60.

393

0.35

70.

343

0.30

50.

303

0.62

00.

573

0.54

50.

528

0.50

20.

474

8. R

oEJ

0.49

00.

479

0.48

30.

479

0.47

60.

474

0.41

70.

384

0.35

80.

355

0.35

20.

354

9. M

ebid

angr

o0.

665

0.63

30.

623

0.63

70.

648

0.64

30.

552

0.47

10.

428

0.38

10.

360

0.35

0

10. R

oS0.

288

0.20

40.

163

0.17

10.

178

0.19

30.

427

0.42

00.

415

0.41

10.

414

0.41

7

11. K

alim

anta

n0.

530

0.44

00.

378

0.34

40.

338

0.31

90.

414

0.40

70.

384

0.36

80.

354

0.34

6

12. S

ulaw

esi

0.61

80.

607

0.55

30.

516

0.48

80.

442

0.37

60.

334

0.33

30.

337

0.32

60.

332

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia0.

327

0.29

40.

290

0.28

80.

290

0.28

80.

389

0.36

30.

360

0.36

00.

335

0.32

1

App

endi

x 5.

22. I

n- a

nd o

ut-m

igra

tion

fl ow

s: G

ini i

ndex

val

ues

betw

een

2010

and

203

5,

inte

r-re

gion

al m

igra

tion

in I

ndon

esia

, Bas

elin

e Sc

enar

io

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241

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Out

-Mig

rati

onIn

-Mig

rati

on

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

1. J

akar

ta0.

692

0.62

40.

558

0.50

80.

446

0.40

80.

791

0.73

60.

681

0.61

40.

542

0.48

5

2. B

odet

abek

0.84

70.

669

0.56

00.

462

0.40

10.

351

1.22

11.

056

0.90

10.

784

0.69

40.

617

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

0.62

60.

503

0.41

90.

345

0.30

60.

263

0.94

80.

732

0.59

60.

482

0.40

30.

356

4. R

oWJB

1.45

81.

148

0.95

00.

801

0.68

80.

599

0.96

30.

834

0.70

70.

622

0.54

10.

488

5. K

edun

gsep

ur0.

712

0.64

00.

574

0.52

40.

473

0.46

00.

972

0.82

70.

704

0.60

60.

542

0.49

7

6. R

oCJY

0.58

50.

523

0.47

10.

419

0.38

10.

366

0.81

40.

677

0.56

40.

482

0.42

10.

379

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

0.40

40.

382

0.33

70.

319

0.30

60.

286

0.91

60.

775

0.67

50.

589

0.52

20.

472

8. R

oEJ

0.66

60.

610

0.55

70.

513

0.48

40.

477

0.76

40.

624

0.51

70.

444

0.39

30.

360

9. M

ebid

angr

o1.

520

1.25

11.

043

0.85

60.

724

0.63

60.

652

0.56

10.

527

0.46

60.

398

0.34

6

10. R

oS0.

498

0.41

20.

334

0.28

40.

244

0.21

30.

815

0.69

70.

579

0.50

50.

448

0.41

1

11. K

alim

anta

n0.

902

0.72

90.

548

0.44

60.

372

0.31

40.

684

0.60

20.

515

0.44

30.

387

0.34

8

12. S

ulaw

esi

0.86

60.

704

0.60

00.

550

0.47

10.

411

0.64

10.

508

0.44

30.

396

0.36

10.

328

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia0.

688

0.56

10.

451

0.38

20.

329

0.28

50.

482

0.40

10.

353

0.32

40.

313

0.31

3

App

endi

x 5.

23. I

n- a

nd o

ut-m

igra

tion

fl ow

s: G

ini i

ndex

val

ues

betw

een

2010

and

203

5,

inte

r-re

gion

al m

igra

tion

in I

ndon

esia

, Sce

nari

o 1

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242

Ori

gin

Out

-Mig

rati

onIn

-Mig

rati

on

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

1. J

akar

ta0.

715

0.64

70.

590

0.52

10.

465

0.42

30.

680

0.62

60.

581

0.55

20.

506

0.46

1

2. B

odet

abek

0.75

00.

605

0.49

10.

411

0.36

00.

312

1.20

81.

060

0.91

00.

798

0.69

90.

633

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

0.60

10.

471

0.39

10.

334

0.28

60.

250

0.93

10.

727

0.60

50.

474

0.41

40.

356

4. R

oWJB

1.39

31.

121

0.93

20.

790

0.67

70.

597

0.93

10.

797

0.68

50.

597

0.52

20.

470

5. K

edun

gsep

ur0.

713

0.66

40.

582

0.52

90.

500

0.45

81.

030

0.86

00.

721

0.62

70.

555

0.49

2

6. R

oCJY

0.58

00.

512

0.44

90.

412

0.38

00.

359

0.79

50.

664

0.56

30.

469

0.41

20.

365

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

0.43

60.

388

0.35

30.

340

0.30

80.

310

0.90

10.

758

0.66

70.

576

0.52

80.

481

8. R

oEJ

0.66

50.

592

0.54

80.

494

0.48

00.

470

0.75

90.

623

0.52

20.

442

0.38

70.

350

9. M

ebid

angr

o1.

552

1.28

81.

028

0.88

60.

736

0.64

20.

649

0.51

00.

464

0.44

20.

405

0.35

3

10. R

oS0.

408

0.33

60.

281

0.23

70.

204

0.17

80.

873

0.73

70.

610

0.52

40.

460

0.41

8

11. K

alim

anta

n0.

936

0.69

40.

552

0.45

90.

387

0.32

60.

657

0.56

90.

489

0.42

30.

375

0.34

0

12. S

ulaw

esi

0.95

20.

849

0.70

50.

609

0.55

70.

469

0.72

40.

579

0.48

60.

421

0.37

20.

341

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia0.

653

0.53

50.

442

0.37

00.

319

0.28

30.

618

0.52

20.

436

0.39

10.

357

0.34

1

App

endi

x 5.

24. I

n- a

nd o

ut-m

igra

tion

fl ow

s: G

ini i

ndex

val

ues

betw

een

2010

and

203

5,

inte

r-re

gion

al m

igra

tion

in I

ndon

esia

, Sce

nari

o 2

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243

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Out

-Mig

rati

onIn

-Mig

rati

on

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

1. J

akar

ta-0

.250

-0.0

090.

130

0.20

70.

246

0.20

9-0

.661

-0.3

070.

000

0.21

90.

454

0.71

1

2. B

odet

abek

-0.6

61-1

.084

-1.0

38-0

.799

-0.6

49-0

.561

2.18

02.

335

2.42

22.

553

2.51

22.

485

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

-0.2

44-0

.449

-0.6

69-0

.984

-1.1

05-1

.066

-0.5

84-0

.693

-0.8

07-0

.774

-0.7

94-0

.753

4. R

oWJB

1.21

01.

351

1.50

71.

583

1.60

71.

726

0.30

70.

476

0.42

60.

422

0.57

50.

779

5. K

edun

gsep

ur0.

093

0.35

60.

468

0.45

20.

449

0.54

51.

329

1.30

11.

300

1.16

01.

196

1.10

9

6. R

oCJY

-0.8

59-0

.475

-0.2

84-0

.279

-0.2

45-0

.227

-1.1

25-1

.091

-1.0

06-0

.898

-0.6

34-0

.515

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

-0.3

95-0

.321

-0.4

16-0

.457

-0.7

15-0

.723

1.42

01.

314

1.26

21.

229

0.98

70.

690

8. R

oEJ

0.22

00.

405

0.60

00.

634

0.65

00.

683

-0.5

96-0

.692

-0.8

45-0

.810

-0.7

71-0

.743

9. M

ebid

angr

o1.

914

1.71

41.

738

1.91

22.

022

2.06

90.

741

0.23

4-0

.053

-0.5

03-0

.679

-0.7

89

10. R

oS-1

.737

-1.9

16-1

.995

-1.8

47-1

.727

-1.6

30-0

.502

-0.3

05-0

.198

-0.1

57-0

.051

0.00

7

11. K

alim

anta

n0.

607

0.08

4-0

.250

-0.4

53-0

.448

-0.5

96-0

.627

-0.4

41-0

.555

-0.6

61-0

.747

-0.8

38

12. S

ulaw

esi

1.46

01.

496

1.17

00.

933

0.74

60.

420

-1.0

09-1

.220

-1.1

24-1

.024

-1.0

77-1

.008

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia-1

.358

-1.1

52-0

.961

-0.9

01-0

.831

-0.8

48-0

.872

-0.9

11-0

.824

-0.7

57-0

.971

-1.1

33

App

endi

x 5.

25. Z

-sco

re v

alue

s of

In-

and

out

-mig

rati

on fl

ows

betw

een

2010

and

203

5,

inte

r-re

gion

al m

igra

tion

in I

ndon

esia

, Bas

elin

e Sc

enar

io

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244

Ori

gin

Out

-Mig

rati

onIn

-Mig

rati

on

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

1. J

akar

ta-0

.366

-0.2

10-0

.060

0.09

50.

099

0.15

1-0

.167

0.26

80.

653

0.85

00.

867

0.84

5

2. B

odet

abek

0.13

7-0

.019

-0.0

48-0

.197

-0.2

41-0

.325

2.29

52.

355

2.36

12.

376

2.45

22.

432

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

-0.5

79-0

.719

-0.7

76-0

.937

-0.9

66-1

.077

0.73

00.

241

-0.0

06-0

.342

-0.5

84-0

.716

4. R

oWJB

2.10

91.

999

1.96

21.

951

1.94

31.

772

0.81

70.

907

0.85

60.

925

0.86

30.

881

5. K

edun

gsep

ur-0

.299

-0.1

410.

021

0.19

50.

305

0.59

40.

870

0.86

10.

829

0.77

60.

866

0.98

3

6. R

oCJY

-0.7

11-0

.633

-0.5

06-0

.469

-0.3

93-0

.203

-0.0

38-0

.114

-0.2

56-0

.338

-0.4

00-0

.443

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

-1.2

94-1

.228

-1.1

98-1

.104

-0.9

63-0

.884

0.55

10.

527

0.60

20.

623

0.65

80.

684

8. R

oEJ

-0.4

47-0

.267

-0.0

630.

124

0.39

40.

736

-0.3

20-0

.462

-0.6

20-0

.680

-0.6

86-0

.665

9. M

ebid

angr

o2.

309

2.43

42.

443

2.30

32.

216

2.08

8-0

.965

-0.8

68-0

.543

-0.4

83-0

.634

-0.8

37

10. R

oS-0

.993

-1.1

05-1

.213

-1.3

25-1

.437

-1.5

02-0

.031

0.01

5-0

.143

-0.1

32-0

.112

-0.0

58

11. K

alim

anta

n0.

314

0.23

4-0

.108

-0.2

96-0

.462

-0.6

39-0

.778

-0.6

02-0

.636

-0.6

94-0

.750

-0.8

14

12. S

ulaw

esi

0.19

80.

129

0.15

70.

364

0.29

30.

182

-1.0

27-1

.214

-1.1

96-1

.116

-1.0

18-1

.052

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia-0

.377

-0.4

75-0

.610

-0.7

05-0

.789

-0.8

93-1

.936

-1.9

15-1

.901

-1.7

64-1

.524

-1.2

39

App

endi

x 5.

26. Z

-sco

re v

alue

s of

In-

and

out

-mig

rati

on fl

ows

betw

een

2010

and

203

5,

inte

r-re

gion

al m

igra

tion

in I

ndon

esia

, Sce

nari

o 1

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245

App

endi

ces

Ori

gin

Out

-Mig

rati

onIn

-Mig

rati

on

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

1. J

akar

ta-0

.258

-0.0

900.

126

0.17

50.

206

0.25

6-0

.923

-0.4

87-0

.119

0.32

30.

497

0.56

0

2. B

odet

abek

-0.1

47-0

.255

-0.3

68-0

.476

-0.5

27-0

.630

2.38

32.

573

2.62

72.

685

2.62

62.

658

3. B

andu

ng R

aya

-0.6

20-0

.782

-0.8

72-0

.930

-1.0

44-1

.122

0.64

60.

229

0.08

0-0

.420

-0.5

18-0

.725

4. R

oWJB

1.89

31.

779

1.83

51.

758

1.68

51.

653

0.64

60.

722

0.75

20.

762

0.67

60.

672

5. K

edun

gsep

ur-0

.264

-0.0

190.

086

0.22

20.

450

0.54

31.

268

1.16

21.

053

1.05

11.

035

0.93

3

6. R

oCJY

-0.6

86-0

.618

-0.5

79-0

.472

-0.3

84-0

.256

-0.2

05-0

.215

-0.2

72-0

.473

-0.5

38-0

.619

7. G

erba

ngke

rtos

usila

-1.1

43-1

.109

-1.0

58-0

.896

-0.8

89-0

.642

0.46

10.

448

0.59

50.

559

0.74

00.

801

8. R

oEJ

-0.4

19-0

.306

-0.0

840.

011

0.31

50.

639

-0.4

30-0

.507

-0.6

15-0

.733

-0.8

13-0

.802

9. M

ebid

angr

o2.

399

2.43

62.

315

2.32

82.

100

2.01

3-1

.115

-1.3

02-1

.097

-0.7

35-0

.620

-0.7

61

10. R

oS-1

.233

-1.3

12-1

.422

-1.5

05-1

.616

-1.7

030.

288

0.29

60.

123

0.05

4-0

.006

0.03

4

11. K

alim

anta

n0.

442

0.09

5-0

.067

-0.1

91-0

.334

-0.5

18-1

.063

-0.8

86-0

.889

-0.9

15-0

.951

-0.9

27

12. S

ulaw

esi

0.49

30.

708

0.70

00.

692

0.85

00.

631

-0.6

45-0

.815

-0.9

10-0

.934

-0.9

84-0

.913

13. R

est o

f Ind

ones

ia-0

.457

-0.5

27-0

.614

-0.7

17-0

.812

-0.8

65-1

.310

-1.2

17-1

.327

-1.2

25-1

.142

-0.9

13

App

endi

x 5.

27. Z

-sco

re v

alue

s of

In-

and

out

-mig

rati

on fl

ows

betw

een

2010

and

203

5,

inte

r-re

gion

al m

igra

tion

in I

ndon

esia

, Sce

nari

o 2

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Appendix 5.28.1. Migration Field Gini Index Values for Jakarta: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

Appendix 5.28.2. Migration Field Gini Index Values for Bodetabek: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

Appendix 5.28.3. Migration Field Gini Index Values for Bandung Raya: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

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Appendix 5.28.4. Migration Field Gini Index Values for RoWJB: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

Appendix 5.28.5. Migration Field Gini Index Values for Kedungsepur: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

Appendix 5.28.6. Migration Field Gini Index Values for RoCJY: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

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Appendix 5.28.7. Migration Field Gini Index Values for Gerbangkertosusila: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

Appendix 5.28.8. Migration Field Gini Index Values for RoEJ: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

Appendix 5.28.9. Migration Field Gini Index Values for Mebidangro: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

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Appendix 5.28.10. Migration Field Gini Index Values for RoS: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

Appendix 5.28.11. Migration Field Gini Index Values for Kalimantan: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

Appendix 5.28.12. Migration Field Gini Index Values for Sulawesi: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

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Appendix 5.28.13. Migration Field Gini Index Values for Rest of Indonesia: Baseline (left), Scenario 1 (middle), Scenario 2 (right), 2010 – 2035

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