University of California, Davis - Dynamics of Engineering Labor Markets: Do Employers ... · 2011. 7. 28. · Hal Salzman Rutgers University E.J. Bloustein School of Planning & Public

Dynamics of Engineering Labor Markets:Do Employers Need Government

Intervention?Hal Salzman

Rutgers UniversityE.J. Bloustein School of Planning & Public PolicyJ.J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development

Leonard LynnCase Western ReserveCase Western Reserve

Presented at:“D i f th S&E L b M k t“Dynamics of the S&E Labor Market:

Projections, Regulations, and Employment Patterns”Institute for the Study of International Migration

Georgetown Universityg yMortara Center for International Studies

Washington, DC 20057July 11, 2011

DRAFT--Please do not circulate or cite.

Engineers Wanted:Is there a market failure?

The S&E Problem: Not enough—for what? Not enough—for what?

The jobs available? For supply-induced innovation?o supp y duced o at o For diffusion of engineering skills? “The Future”? Here and There (US and China)

Why? Lack of student interest? Lack of student ability?

The Solution: A “New Sputnik Moment” …..or Markets?

_____________________________DRAFT--Please do not circulate or cite.

U.S. trends in student mathematics performanceNational Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP 2008)National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP 2008)

Changes since 1973

Age Group White Black Hispanic

Age 9 ∆ 25 points ∆ 34 points ∆ 32 points

Age 13 ∆ 16 points ∆ 34 points ∆ 29 points

Source: NCES The Nation's Report Card: Trends in Academic Progress in Reading and Mathematics 2008http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/pubs/main2008/2009479.aspAge 17 ∆ 4 points ∆ 17 points ∆ 16 points


U.S. share of all OECD high-performing students:

Science, math and reading

Science Math Reading

U.S.33.7%Korea

6 9%

Canada5.0%

France5.0%

Turkey5.0%U.S.

14.1%Germany

Canada5.1%

France5.1%

U.K.5.1%U.S.33.0%U.K.

11 0%

Germany9.0%

Canada5.0%

Other OECD Japan

Germany7.9%

6.9%

Other OECD Japan15.2%

y11.1%

Other OECD t i

Japan17 0%

11.0%

countries24.8%

Japan11.9%countries

28.3%Korea16.2%

15.2%countries25.0%

17.0%

Source: These figures are reproduced from: Salzman and Lowell, 2008; “Making the Grade” Nature 453, 28-30].


Intersection of highest degree in science & engineering and S&E occupation:

20062006


The Global Engineering Race?g gGrowth of infrastructure between

1997 to 2007United

Length, Miles States1 China2

Interstate/Expressway 608 30,519N i bl Ch l (680) 8 510Navigable Channels (680) 8,510Rail (4,030) 7,436(From: Lynn and Salzman 2010) Sources:(From: Lynn and Salzman, 2010) Sources:

1. National Transport Statistics, 2009. Bureau of Transport Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation.

2 China Statistical Yearbook 2008 National Bureau of Statistics of China2. China Statistical Yearbook, 2008. National Bureau of Statistics of China.


The Global Engineering Race?g g


Do Labor Markets Work (I)?( )


Do Labor Markets Work (II)?( )Engineers in the Petroleum Industry:

A Case of a Responsive Market?A Case of a Responsive Market?


Why the increase in demand?Why the increase in demand?

E l ti Exploration New pipelines/Natural GasDemographics – aging workforceRetirements and company policiesRetirements and company policiesRecruitment barriers in U.S./AK


Petroleum Engineering Starting Salaries

$86 220

$90,000

$86,220

$60 000

$70,000

$80,000

$43 674$50,400

$55,987$61,516

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$43,674

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$0

$10,000

1997 1999 2003 2005 2010

Source: IPEDS; Tabulations: Kuehn & Salzman, 2010Salary data from BLS & NACESource: IPEDS; Tabulations: Kuehn & Salzman, 2010Salary data from BLS & NACE

1997 1999 2003 2005 2010


Petroleum engineering graduatesTotal graduates

800

700

500

600

300

400

Total BS

100

200

Source: IPEDS; Tabulations: Kuehn & Salzman, 2010Salary data from BLS & NACE


Petroleum engineering graduatesTotal and U.S. [citizen & perm. resident] grads

800

700

500

600

300

400

Total BS US BS

100

200

Total BS US BS

Source: IPEDS; Tabulations: Kuehn & Salzman, 2010Salary data from BLS & NACE


Immigration yield for Top 10 H-1B employers FY07-09FY07 09

H-1B H-1BsGreencardApps ImmigrationH-1B

Rank CompanyH-1Bs FY07-09

Apps FY07-09

Immigration Yield

5 Tata 2,368 0 0%3 Satyam 3,557 37 1%2 Wipro 7,216 125 2%

10 Accenture 1 396 28 2%10 Accenture 1,396 28 2%1 Infosys 9,625 476 5%9 Intel 1,454 163 11%8 IBM 1,550 382 25%6 Deloitte 1,896 588 31%7 Cognizant 1 669 702 42%7 Cognizant 1,669 702 42%4 Microsoft 3,318 2,214 67%

Source: DHS USCIS: Initial H-1B I-129 Petitions FY07-09 & PERM Data FY07-09/ Ron Hira RIT, 2011.DRAFT--Please do not circulate or cite.

Solving the S&E “Shortage”:Are Markets “the Problem”?Are Markets the Problem ?

$90,000

$50 400$55,987

$61,516

$86,220

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$43,674$50,400

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$01997 1999 2003 2005 2010

I t k t i t ti th tIs government market intervention the response to the price of a free-market solution?

Source: IPEDS; Tabulations: Kuehn & Salzman, 2010Salary data from BLS & NACESource: IPEDS; Tabulations: Kuehn & Salzman, 2010Salary data from BLS & NACE


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University of California, Davis - Dynamics of Engineering Labor Markets: Do Employers ... · 2011. 7. 28. · Hal Salzman Rutgers University E.J. Bloustein School of Planning & Public