Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Input-output LCA
Jannick H SchmidtBarcelona 8th November 2012
http://people.plan.aau.dk/~jannick/
CEO, 2.-0 LCA consultants Associate Professor, PhD, Aalborg University, Denmark
www.lca-net.com
2
Terminology of life cycle inventoryThe very basic of LCAProcess LCA and IO-LCAUses of IO-LCADerivation of supply-use tables and IO-tableTrade-linkingSupply use data and Mass flow analysisFuture challenges
Now
Content of the lecture
From product flow diagram to matrix- Product system
3
B C
A
D
2 kg 5 kg
6 kg
3 kg
3 kg CO2
1 kg CO2
2 kg CO2
4 kg CO2
System boundary between technosphere and nature
Functional unit/reference flow
Output: product (reference flow)________________ Output: co-products Input: products from other processes Output: waste sent to treatment/recycling________________ Emissions Resources
From product flow diagram to matrix- What is an LCA process?
4
Other processes canlink to this flow
Inputs/outputs from other processes
Exchanges with the environment
LCA activity = LCA-process = activity with inputs and outputs
From product flow diagram to matrix- no co-products
5
B C
A
2 kg 5 kg
6 kg
3 kg CO2
1 kg CO2
2 kg CO2
D
3 kg
4 kg CO2
Functional unit/reference flow
System boundary between technosphere and nature
Process AOutputProcess AOutput 6
InputsABCD
InputsAB 2C 5D
EmissionsCO2
EmissionsCO2 1
B C D2 5 3
3
2 3 4
NormalisedProcess A B C DOutput 1 1 1 1
InputsAB 0.33C 0.83D 1.50EmissionsCO2 0.17 1.00 0.60 1.33
Z~Direct requirement coefficient matrix
2 3 4EmissionsCO2 1
InputsAB 2C 5D
From product flow diagram to matrix- with co-products
6
3
Direct requirement coefficient matrix depends on allocation/system expansion
Process AOutputsABCD
Process AOutputsA 6BCD
B C DB C D
251 3
7
Terminology of life cycle inventoryThe very basic of LCAProcess LCA and IO-LCAUses of IO-LCADerivation of supply-use tables and IO-tableTrade-linkingSupply use data and Mass flow analysisFuture challenges
Now
Content of the lecture
8
The very basics of IO-LCA
The inventory problem: Sector A) 1 USD A, uses 0.6 USD B Sector B) 1 USD B, uses 0.39 USD A I want to analyse 1 USD B – how much of
sector A and B is needed? Solution: Use an LCA software
9
LCA software: SimaPro
1 USD B: Result in SimaProSector A: A Sector B: B
10
What is the underlying calculation?
Convention: Output = positive values, and input = negative values Our inventory problem: two equations with two unknowns:
Sector A: Sector B: Demand
B USD1A USD0
B USD1A USD39.0
B USD0.6A USD1
2
2
1
1
ss
ss
Scaling factors Solve equation:
1.3s and 51.0 21 s
11
Let's formalise the notion...
B USD1A USD0
B USD1A USD39.0
B USD0.6A USD1
2
2
1
1
ss
ss
B USD1B USD1 0.6-A USD39.0A USD1
A
Technology matrix (A) Final demand vector (f)
B USD1A USD0
f
2
1
2
2
22
12
1
1
21
11
ff
ss
aa
ss
aa
fAs
fAs -1
3.151.0
10
3.178.051.03.1
B USD1A USD0
B USD1B USD0.6-A USD39.0A USD1
s
s
s
fAs-1
-1
12
EmissionsEmissions matrix (B)
ion arsenic, kg 0ion arsenic, kg 11E0.4SO kg 0.0012SO kg 0
CO kg 0.85CO kg 0
22
22
B
SectorA Sector B
Resulting emissions (g)
fABBsg -1
Formalised formula
ion arsenic, kg 11-2.0ESO kg 0.0016
CO kg 1.1
ion arsenic, kg 0SO kg 0.0012
CO kg 0.85
ion arsenic, kg 11-4.0ESO kg 0CO kg 0
2
2
3
2
1
3
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
ggg
ggg
sss
sss
13
Terminology of life cycle inventoryThe very basic of LCAProcess LCA and IO-LCAUses of IO-LCADerivation of supply-use tables and IO-tableTrade-linkingSupply use data and Mass flow analysisFuture challenges
Now
Content of the lecture
14
Process LCA and Input-Output LCA In process LCA we have the technology matrix (A)
In Input-Output LCA we have an IO-table also called coefficient transaction matrix ( )
specifies the input per unit of output
If A has only ones on the diagonal (normalised), then:
For IO-LCA we now have:
elec.kWh 1elec.kWh 0.6-coal kg 39.0coal kg 1
A
Z~
Z~
elec.elec./kWh kWh 0coal elec./kgkWh 0.6elec.coal/kWh kg 39.0coal coal/kg kg 0~Z
AIZ ~
fZ-Is
fAs-1
-1
~
fZIBg
fABBsg-1
-1
~
Format in process LCA
Format in IO LCA
15
Input-Output LCA: Units of the IO-table Units of the coefficient transaction matrix ( )
Typically monetary units, e.g.
If different units: Hybrid unit IO-model Example where coal is in physical units:
are related via prices, e.g. USD/kg coal
Z~
$/$ 0$/$ 0.5$/$ 1.0$/$ 0~Z
elec. elec./$ $ 0coal elec./kg $ 0.5elec. coal/$ kg 1.0coal coal/kg kg 0~Z
PZZ physicalmonetary *.~~
elec.$/kWh .0700elec.$/kWh 0.070coal $/kg 0.081coal $/kg 0.081
P
physicalmonetary ZZ ~ and ~
16
Process LCA versus IO-LCA
Z~
Z~
Z~
So far: IO-LCA = process-LCA What is the difference?
IO-LCA: Process-LCA: A
How do we derive A in process LCA? Follow physical flows in process-diagram Buttom-up approach
How do we derive in IO-LCA? Using information provided by statistical agencies: National accounts (supply
and use tables) Top-down approach
Difference = the way A and are derived
17
Process LCA versus IO-LCA – Data sources Process data (bottom-up)
Enterprise green accounts / direct data collection Emission inventories Technical handbooks and risk assessment estimates Industry LCA databases Commercial LCA databases
Input-Output data (top-down) Statistical agencies (based on industry data) National projects to complete the emissions data
18
Process LCA versus IO-LCA
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRawCapital
EnergyCapitalRaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
CapitalRawEnergy
Capital
RawRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
CapitalEnergy
Raw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
CapitalRawEnergy
Capital
RawRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRawRawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRawEnergy
EnergyCapital
EnergyCapital
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
CapitalRawEnergy
Capital
RawRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
CapitalRawEnergy
Capital
RawRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRawRawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRawRawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
Energy
CapitalRaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
Energy
CapitalRawEnergy
Capital
Raw
EnergyCapital
Raw
EnergyCapital
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
CapitalRawEnergy
Capital
RawRaw
EnergyRaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
Raw
Capital
Raw
Energy
Capital
aw
EnergyCapitalRaw
EnergyCapital
Raw
Energy
awEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
EnergyRaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
RawEnergyCapital
RawEnergy
CapitalRaw
Raw
Capital
Raw
nergy
Capitalaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
Energy
Raw
Capital
Energy
CapitalRaw
Energ
Capital
EnergCapital
Capital
Raw
Energy
Capit
Raw
CapitalEnergy
Capital
Raw
Raw
Capital
EnergCapital
CaRaw
Energy
Capit
Raw
CapitalEnergy
Capital
Raw
Capital
Raw
EnergCapital
Capital
Raw
Energy
Raw
CapitalEnergy
CapitalRaw Raw
CapitalEnergy
RawRaw
Capital
Energy
RawRaw
CapitalEnergy
Capital
RawCapital
Capital
Capital
EnergypitalRaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
EnergyCapitalRaw
Raw
Energy
Capital
CapitalEnergyRaw
Raw
Raw
Raw
Energy
Capital
EnergyCapital
Raw
Capital
Raw
CapitalEnergy
pital
aw
EnergyCapital
CapitalRaw
Capital
Raw
CapitalEnergy
pital
Capital
aw
EnergyCapital
Raw
Capital
Capital
Capital
Capital
Capital
Capital
Capital
Raw
RawRawRaw
Raw
Raw
Energy
Raw
EnergyRawCapital
Energy
Raw
Capital
Raw
Raw
Raw
Capital
Energy
Raw
Use
Raw A
Manuf.
Raw B
Disp.
RawEnergy
Capital
Capital
CapitalEnergy
Raw
Do you think we remember it all inprocess-LCA?
Process LCA versus IO-LCA
IO-LCA: No cut-off Automatical inclusion of 'hard to quantify' processes
Accounting, marketing, use of post services Business travelling Office machinery, printing paper, pencils, furniture etc. Capital goods (buildings, machinery)
19
Process LCA versus IO-LCA – Results
20
Process-data:Ecoinvent and LCAfood
IO-data:Swedish IO-table(FORWAST project)
21
Terminology of life cycle inventoryThe very basic of LCAProcess LCA and IO-LCAUses of IO-LCADerivation of supply-use tables and IO-tableTrade-linkingSupply use data and Mass flow analysisFuture challenges
Now
Content of the lecture
22
Uses of IO-LCA What can IO-LCA be used for?
Complete green accounts Short-cut to screening LCAs Provide inputs to process LCA => increase completeness (hybrid LCA) LCA of nations/regions/municipalities: production and consumption LCA of international trade
23
Terminology of life cycle inventoryThe very basic of LCAProcess LCA and IO-LCAUses of IO-LCADerivation of supply-use tables and IO-tableTrade-linkingSupply use data and Mass flow analysisFuture challenges
Now
Content of the lecture
24
Derivation of the IO-table
How is derived? Supply (V') and use (U) tables
Z~
Products (c)
Monetary supply table Total
Total
V'o
g'
qNc
ImportActivities (a) Monetary use table
Products (c)
Activities (a) Total
Uo
Final uses
Cap
ital f
orm
atio
n
Ec q
Primary inputs
Labour
Taxes
Profit
Use of fixed capital
Total g'
y0
Emissions B
GDP
Final demand
Export
Investments
25
Derivation of the IO-table
Supply (V') and use (U) tables are balanced
Balanced MSUT
Products (c)
Total
U
Needsfulfilment
y Ec q
Primary inputs
Labour
Taxes
Profit
Total g'
Products (c) V'
Activities (a) Import
qNc
Total g'
Export
26
From purchaser’s prices to basic prices What is purchaser’s price? What is basic price? Why have table in basic prices?
q is in purchaser’s price U => purchaser’s price V’ + valuation => purchaser’s
price
Methodology and procedure:Schmidt J H, Weidema B P, and Suh S (2010), Documentation of the final model used for the scenario analyses. Deliverable 6-4 of the EU FP6-project FORWAST. http://forwast.brgm.fr/
27
Derivation of the IO-table (simple case) Simplified case: No co-products
Z~
1-gUZ ˆ~ U normalised by total supply from activities (g)
28
Derivation of the IO-table (normal case) How to deal with co-products?
Two options: Substitution Co-product allocation
29
Derivation of the IO-table (normal case) System expansion (by-product technology assumption)
1-gUZ ˆ~
U normalised by total supply from activities (g)
Derivation of the IO-table (normal case) Substitution (by-product technology assumption)
30
1ˆ~~ VV-UZ
31
Derivation of the IO-table (normal case) Economic allocation (industry-technology assumption)
q
g'
11 ˆˆ~ qV'gUZ
V’ normalised by total supply of products (q)=> average market supply, similar to attributional modelling
U Normalised by total supply from activities (g)=> Economic allocation similar to attributional modelling
32
Allocation problems in the SUT framework Years of discussions on difficulties in substitution is now solved by
using a simple matrix operation Allocation versus substitution: Two different matrix formulas
Suh S, Weidema B, Schmidt J H and Reinout H (2010), Generalized Make and Use Framework for Allocation in Life Cycle Assessment. Journal of Industrial Ecology 14(2): 335-353 < DOI: 10.1111/j.1530-9290.2010.00235.x>
33
Terminology of life cycle inventoryThe very basic of LCAProcess LCA and IO-LCAUses of IO-LCADerivation of supply-use tables and IO-tableTrade-linkingSupply use data and Mass flow analysisFuture challenges
Now
Content of the lecture
34
Tradelinking Example of tradelinked DK, EU27 (ex DK) and RoW IO-table
IO-table:DK
Import to DK from EU27
Import to DK from RoW
IO-table:EU27 (ex DK)
IO-table:RoW
DK NAMEA:GHG-emissions
EU27 NAMEA:GHG-emissions
RoW NAMEA:GHG-emissions
Import to EU27 (ex DK)
from RoW
Import to EU27 (ex DK)
from DK
Import to RoW from
EU27 (ex DK)
Import to RoW from
EU27 (ex DK)
35
Terminology of life cycle inventoryThe very basic of LCAProcess LCA and IO-LCAUses of IO-LCADerivation of supply-use tables and IO-tableTrade-linkingSupply use data and Mass flow analysisFuture challenges
Now
Content of the lecture
36
FORWAST: Project under the 6th European Union Framework Programme Purpose: Overall mapping of physical flows and stocks of resources to
forecast waste quantities in Europe and identify life-cycle environmental stakes of waste prevention and recycling
Technical lead: 2.-0 LCA consultants Partners: 6 partners throughout the EU Duration: March 2007 to December 2009 Project homepage: http://forwast.brgm.fr/
37
CREEA: Project under the 7th European Union Framework Programme Purpose: Compiling and Refining Economic and Environmental Accounts MFA / waste lead: 2.-0 LCA consultants Partners: 12 partners throughout the EU Duration: April 2011 to April 2014 Project homepage: http://creea.eu
38
CREEA WP4: Waste and MFA accounts
UP
D0*UP
Gc
diag(f0*rT)
Feedstock present in supply of products
rT
gR
S+WV
Emissions
Use of products
Ressource inputs
Emissions
wUUse of waste
diag(re0*wU)
gW
Emissions
How to calculate waste generation
39
Physical supply and use table (dry matter mass)- preliminary draft of use table (UP)- waste rows = 0 Product material
composition (water content)
a) D
omes
tic p
rodu
ctio
n
b) Im
port
Dom
estic
use
= a
+b-c
c) E
xpor
t
Physical supply PhysicaluseIm
port
Fina
l use
Expo
rt
Physical data (dry mass)
Inve
stm
ents
Statistical data
Fina
l use
Inve
stm
ents
PSUTMSUT
CREEA WP4: Waste and MFA accounts
40
Auxiliary data: Feedstock specification (D1)
Resource efficiency (f0) Unused extraction rate
Recycling efficiency (e0)
D1
1
0.8
1
1
1
1
1
Activities
Prod
ucts
CREEA WP4: Waste and MFA accounts
41
Calculation of waste generation: feedstock efficiency (D0): From D1 to D0
waste+stock addition (WV+S)
split waste from stock addition
e.g. use investment info in use table or general data from FORWAST
=> supply of waste table WV
WRUU0UT0TP0TV ggGw*rewr*frU*DUWΔS ˆˆˆˆ diagdiag
Pij,1
P0,1ij,1U0T0Pij0,
ij1ij0,
ij0,
ij,1
ij,1
ij,1
ij
U*Di'
./UDi'w*rei'r*fi'V'i'iDDD
D
DDD
D
1
*
0
11,0
0
Was
te(p
rodu
ct c
lass
ifica
tion)
CREEA WP4: Waste and MFA accounts
42
Waste (material for treatment) in the supply-use tabels
CREEA WP4: Waste and MFA accounts
43
Input-output LCA – future challenges Disaggregation
The most detailed IO-table: 480 products, but 100 is normal Ecoinvent (process LCA): >4000 processes
Waste treatment is normally not correctly modelled Virgin production and recycling are mixed Trade with e.g. steel scrap is classified as trade with steel
It takes time to create IO-tables EU27 IO-table for 2003 is available in SimaPro USA table for 2002 Exiopol table for 2000
Tradelinked IO-tables are rare
If you want to know more…Choose among our courses atwww.ilca.es
44