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Arturo BaroncelliPast President IFREngelberger Prize
Universität Bern, 19th September 2018
INDUSTRIAL AND SERVICE ROBOTICS:STATE OF THE ART AND FUTURE TRENDS
1
International Federation of RoboticsRepresenting the global robotics industry
• Robotics turnover 2017: about $50billion
• More than 50 members:• National robot associations• R&D institutes• Robot suppliers• Integrators
• Sponsor of the annualInternational Symposiumon Robotics (ISR)
• Co-sponsor of the IERAAward
• Primary resource forworld-wide data on useof robotics – IFRStatistical Department
Source data August 2018 2
Structure of Presentation
• Industrial Robots
• Service Robots
3
Preview on WorldRobotics 2018
• Industrial Robots 2017• Global installations• Regions• Main Markets• Main Customers• Challenges of the Robotics Industry
Some figures of the presentation were taken fromprevious edition of World Robotics
4
The Birth of Real Industrial Robotics
• First robot installed
• 1961 in GM plant, Trenton NJ
• Handled various hot pieces of diecast metaland stacked them
• Weight 2 tons
• Hydraulically driven
• Controlled by a program on magnetic drums
• Developed by George Devol and JoeEngelberger, 2 pioneers of Robotics
5
ISO definition 8373 of a robot:• An automatically controlled, reprogrammable, multipurpose manipulator programmable in three or more axes,
which may be either fixed in place or mobile for use in industrial automation applications.
• Reprogrammable: whose programmed motions or auxiliary functions may be changed without physical alterations;
• Multipurpose: capable of being adapted to a different application with physical alterations;
• Physical alterations: alteration of the mechanical structure or control system except for changes of programmingcassettes, ROMs, etc. o Axis: direction used to specify the robot motion in a linear or rotary mode
Technical definition of industrial Robot
6
2017: record growth of industrial robots
111 114 113
60
121
166 159178
221254
294
381
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
'000
of u
nits
Estimated worldwide annual shipments ofindustrial robots
Source: IFR Statistical Department
+30%
Source data August 20187
Arturo Baroncelli
N.1 1961
2020: 3 million industrial robots in operation
1.035 1.021 1.059 1.153 1.235 1.3321.472
1.6321.828
2.0552.323
2.644
3.053
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
'000
of u
nits
Estimated worldwide operational stock ofindustrial robots 2015-2016 and forecast for 2017*-2020*
Source:IFR World Robotics 2017
+12%+12%
+14% on averageper year
*forecast
N.1 1961
8
2017: electronics, automotive and metalindustry are main drivers
Arturo Baroncelli
20
15
7
20
29
65
98
25
19
8
20
29
91
103
41
23
10
21
45
121
126
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Unspecified
Others
Food and beverages
Plastic and chemical products
Metal
Electrical/electronics
Automotive
'000 of units
Estimated annual supply of industrial robots at year-endby industries worldwide 2015-2017
2017 2016 2015
Source: IFR Statistical Department
+21%
+33%
+55%
+9%
+19%
Source data August 20189
2017: considerable increase in all regions
Arturo Baroncelli
5
38
50
161
6
41
56
191
7
46
66
262
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
all others
America
Europe
Asia/Australia
'000 of units
Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robotsat year-end by regions 2015 - 2017
2017 2016 2015 Source: IFR Statistical Department
+37%
+18%
+12%
+11%
Source data August 201810
Top 5 countries represent 73% of total sales in 2017
Arturo Baroncelli
20
28
38
35
69
20
31
41
39
87
22
33
40
46
138
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Germany
United States
Rep. of Korea
Japan
China
'000 of units
Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robotsat year-end main markets 2015 – 2017*
2017 2016 2015 Source: IFR Statistical Department
+58%
-4%
+6%
+8%
+18%
*preliminary results of 2017
Source data August 201811
China: Main driver of growth in 2017
Arturo Baroncelli
7 8 6 1523 23
37
5769
87
138
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
'000
of u
nits
Annual shipments of industrial robotsin China 2007 - 2017
Source: IFR Statistical Department
+27%
+58%
Source data August 201812
Vietnam now 7th largest destination
Arturo Baroncelli
3
5
7
1
7
4
6
6
2
8
5
6
8
8
11
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
FRANCE
MEXICO
ITALY
VIETNAM
TAIWAN
'000 units
Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robotsat year-end main markets 2015 - 2017
2017 2016 2015
Source: IFR Statistical Department
+44%
+410%
+19%
+7%
+16%
Source data August 201813
Considerable increase in Switzerland
Arturo Baroncelli
532 488
347447
673584 593
650734
805
1.118
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
units
Estimated annual supply of industrial robotsin Switzerland
Source data August 201814
Rep. of Korea: considerable increase since 2010
128
24 26
19 2125
3841 44 42 44
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
'000
of u
nits
Estimated annual supply of industrial robotsin the Rep. of Korea 2008-2016 and 2017*-2020*
Source: IFR World Robotics 2017
+8%
+5% to +10% onaverage per year
+5%
15
Japan: significant recovery and continued growth
33
13
22
28 2925
29
3539
42 44 4548
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
'000
of u
nits
Estimated annual supply of industrial robotsin Japan 2008-2016 and 2017*-2020*
Source: IFR World Robotics 2017
+10%
+5% onaverage per year
9%
16
USA: considerable increase since 2010
13
7
14
21 22 2426 28
3136 38
45
55
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
'000
of u
nits
Estimated annual supply of industrial robotsin the USA 2008-2016 and 2017*-2020*
Source: IFR World Robotics 2017
+14%
+15% onaverage per year
15%
17
Germany: moderate increase at record levels
15
9
14
2018 18
20 20 20 21 2224
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
'000
of u
nits
Estimated annual supply of industrial robotsin Germany 2008-2016 and 2017*-2020*
Source: IFR World Robotics 2017
0%
+5% onaverage per year
+5%
18
2020: 1.9 million operating in Asian factories
8871.025
1.1861.380
1.618
1.912
433 460 493 527 563 612
274 300 326 359 397 453
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
'000
of u
nits
Estimated worldwide operational stock ofindustrial robots 2015-2016 and forecast for 2017*- 2020*
Asia/Australia Europe America Source: IFR World Robotics 2017*forecast
19
2020: 950,000 robots operating in China
256340
451
585
748
950
287 287 285 292 301 316
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
'000
of u
nits
Estimated operational stock of industrial robotsin China and in Japan 2015-2016 and forecast for 2017*-2020*
China Japan Source: IFR World Robotics 2017*forecast
20
Density of Robots = Robots / 10.000 Manufacturing EmployeesWorld average = 74Republic of Korea at the top = 631China = 49 . Enormous potential to further growth.
Density of Robots
21
Density of Robots = Robots / 10.000 Manufacturing EmployeesWorld average = 74Republic of Korea at the top = 631China = 49 . Enormous potential to further growth.
22
Density of Robots
Today’s trends, tomorrow’s robots!
23
• Shift from high volume/low mix to low volume/high mix ishaving a profound impact on manufacturing.
• Many industries facing acute shortages of skilled labor.
• Quicker automation ROIs and rising wages bringing an end tolabour arbitrage.
• Increasing focus on workplace safety.
The Changing Nature of Manufacturing & Work
Today’s Digital Generation doesn’t do “4D” Jobs!
24
Addressing these Realities : a Huge Opportunity
Low volume high mix
Shorter cycles, faster launches
Increased need for automation andscalability in SMEs
Rising cost of downtime
Automation complexity andunpredictability
Shop floor disruptions andhigh engineering costs
Lack of robot integrationand programming expertise
Higher lifetime TCO due toincrease in planned downtime
The Trends The Challenges
Increased and sporadichuman intervention
Lost productivity tomaintain safety
Collaborative automation forgreater flexibility
Better software forengineering efficiency
Easier to use robots with moreintuitive programming
Advanced analytics and servicesfor greater reliability
The Enablers
Collaborative automation tomaintain safety and productivity
The Answers to these challenges lie inSimplification, Digitalisation and Collaboration
25
• Robots which are easier to install, program and operate willunlock entry barriers to the large, untapped market of smalland medium enterprises (SMEs).
• Trend towards having production closer to the end consumerdriving the importance of standardisation & consistency acrossglobal brands.
Simplification
Simplification critical to SMEs, but alsoimportant for large Global Manufacturers
26
• Industry 4.0, linking the real-life factory with a virtual one, willplay an increasingly important role in global manufacturing.
• Vision and sensing devices, coupled with analytics platforms,will pave the way for new industry business models.
• Machine Learning will drive many robotics developments overthe coming years.
Digitalisation
Big Data allowing People to make betterDecisions about Factory Operations
27
• Collaborative robots are shifting the traditional limits of “whatcan be automated?”
• Collaborative robots increase manufacturing flexibility as ‘lowvolume high mix’ becomes the new normal
• Collaboration is also about productivity with increasedhuman/robot interaction
Collaboration
Collaboration means different Things to DifferentPeople, but is changing the Face of Manufacturing
28
Self-programming Robots
Robotics : the Connected Future
Self-optimising Production
Robots doing the same task connect acrossall global locations so performance can becompared and improved at the click of a button.
Robots automatically download what theyneed to get started from a cloud library andthen start to optimise through “self-learning”.
Connected & Collaborative Robots enable SMARTManufacturing for both SMEs & Global Enterprises
29
Structure Of Presentation
• Industrial Robots
• Service Robots
30
Definitions of Service Robots
31
A service robot is a robot that performs useful tasks for humans or equipmentexcluding industrial automation application.Note: The classification of a robot into industrial robot or service robot is doneaccording to its intended application.
• A personal service robot or a service robot for personal use is a service robotused for a non-commercial task, usually by lay persons.Examples are domestic servant robot, automated wheelchair, personal mobilityassist robot, and pet exercising robot.
• A professional service robot or a service robot for professional use is a servicerobot used for a commercial task, usually operated by a properly trained operator.Examples are cleaning robot for public places, delivery robot in offices or hospitals,fire-fighting robot, rehabilitation robot and surgery robot in hospitals. In this contextan operator is a person designated to start, monitor and stop the intendedoperation of a robot or a robot system.
What is a service robot?
Industrial Robots Service Robots
Professional Use Personal/domestic
Industrial environments Non-industrial environments
Picture source: Goldbeck, ;KUKA AG, Bosch Bonirob, Hetwin, SMP Robotics, Omron,International Submarine Engineering , Robert Bosch Hausgeräte , Wonder Workshop
32
Professional Service Robots
Image creditLely
Image creditCobham
Image creditSchilling Robotics
Image creditAeroVironment
Source: IFR World RoboticsSource: BA Systemes
Source: Rewalk
Source: Intuitive Surgical
33
Professional service robots: significant growth
2016: almost 60,000 units, +24%
Forecast 2017: +17% -almost 79,000 units
Forecast 2018 -2020: about 400,000 units20% to 25% on average per year
34
Professional service robots: increasing turnover
2016: 4.7 US$bn, +2%
Forecast 2017: +12% - 5.2 US$bn
Forecast 2018 -2020: 26.8 US$bn20% to 25% on average per year
35
Main drivers: logistic systems
189,7
46,7
27,837,0
11,67,125,4
11,16,019,0 11,2
6,60
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Logistic Defence Field
'000
of u
nits
Service robots for professional use. Main applicationsUnits sales 2015 and 2016, forecast 2017*, 2018*-2020*
2018*-2020* 2017* 2016 2015 Source: World Robotics 2017*forecast
36
Public relation robots andexoskeletons on the rise
66,1
41,0
10,7 3,210,3 8,1 2,0 0,87,5 6,0 1,6 0,73,2
5,0 1,3 0,60
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Public relation Exoskeletons Medical Construction
'000
of u
nits
Service robots for professional use. All other applications - 1 -Units sales 2015 and 2016, forecast 2017* and 2018*-2020*
2018*-2020* 2017* 2016 2015 Source: World Robotics 2017*forecast
37
Good prospects for cleaning robots
6,1
1,2
2,3
0,5 0,1
1,5
0,7 0,4 0,5 0,1 0,0 0,20,50,3 0,3 0,1 0,0 0,10,5 0,3 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,1
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
Cleaning Inspection Mobile platforms Underwater Rescue /security All others
'000
of u
nits
Service robots for professional use. All other applications - 2 -Units sales 2015 and 2016, forecast 2017* and 2018*-2020*
2018*-2020* 2017* 2016 2015 Source: World Robotics 2017*forecast
38
Medical robots: most valuable
7.749
5.845
4.2313.566
1.8331.133 1.104 758
1.612992 985 775
1.463780 1.108 1.038
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
Medical Logistic Field Defence
US$
mill
ion
Service robots for professional use in main applications. Estimated values 2015and 2016, forecast 2017*, 2018*-2020*
2018*-2020* 2017* 2016 2015 Source: World Robotics 2017*forecast
39
Public relation robots:significant increase of turnover
4.492
283506147 59 135119 41 11253 23 131
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
Public relation Exoskeletons All others
US$
mill
ion
Service robots for professional use. All othersEstimated value 2015 and 2016, forecast 2017*, 2018*-2020*
2018*-2020* 2017* 2016 2015 Source: World Robotics 2017*forecast
40
Professional service robots:more than 50% from the Americas
32,5
15,9
11,3
25,9
15,6
6,6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Americas Europe Asia/Australia
'000
of u
nits
Service robots for professional useUnit sales 2015 and 2016 by region of origin
2016 2015 Source: World Robotics 2017
41
Main categories:Vacuum and floor cleaningLawn-mowing robotsEntertainment and leisure robotsRobots for elderly and handicapassistance
Source: Kärcher (Vacuum cleaning)
Source: EzrobotSource: Aisoy Robotics S.L
Personal Service Robots
Image creditBlueBotics
Image credit Kawada
Image credit MetraLabs
Copyrights GEStream©Technology Inc.
Image credit VgoCommunications Source: Vorwerk (Vacuum cleaning)
42
Personal/domestic robots on the rise
2.9792.766
991
2.4022.213
816
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
Americas Asia/Australia Europe
'000
uni
ts
Service robots for personal/domestic use. Unit sales 2015 and 2016 by region oforigin.
2016 2015 Source: World Robotics 2017
43
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
Household robots Entertainment and leisure robots
'000
of u
nits
Figure 2.4 Service robots for personal/domestic use.Units sales 2014 and 2015, and forecast 2016-2019
2016-2019 2015 2014 Source: IFR World Robotics 2016
Total value of forecast :Household robots: about US$ 13 billionEntertainment robots: about US$ 9 billion
2016 - 2019: 42 million new service robots for personal and domestic use
44
• Dynamics of the service robotics industry• Technological enablers
45
Number of service robot manufacturers of alltypes by region of origin (N=699)
EU; 243
CH, IL, NO; 50North America; 242
Asia; 134
Others; 30
Number of service robot manufacturers of all types(professional and personal/domestic use) by region of origin
Source: World Robotics 201746
Europe fares well in service robotstart-up creation
80
72
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
num
ber
of c
ompa
nies
Number of service robot manufacturers(professional and personal/domestic use) by country of origin
Established
Start Ups
Criteria for Start-Up:• Product/prototype on the market• Business max 5 years of age29% share of start-ups
80
72
Source: World Robotics 2017 47
75% of European service robotsuppliers are SMEs
020406080
100120140160180200
num
ber
of c
ompa
nies
number of employees
Business sizes of service robots of all types in numbers of employees(by region of origin)
EuropeNorth AmericaAsia
small and mediumsized businesses
Source: World Robotics 2017
48
Start-up examples (I):Service robotics in agriculture
Fresh fruit picking robot
Naïo Technologies (France)
Robotic weeder for vegetable farms
WALL-YE (France)
Platform for vineyard maintenance
FF Robotics (Israel)Source: FF Robotics, WALL-YE, Naio Technologies
49
Start-up examples (II):Service robots in public-relations
Bots and us (UK)Unity Robotics (D) Promobot (RU)
Source: Unity Robotics, Bots and us, Promobot
50
Start-up examples (III):Service robots in logistics
Fetch Robotics (USA)Mobile Industrial Robots MiR (DK) Robotnik (ES)
Source: MiR, Fetch Robotics, Robotnik
51
Creating a EuropeanEco-System in robotics
• Robotic key-technologies: perception, human-machine-interaction, mechatronics, safety, …
• Software: Major cost-/performance factor in service robotics,30+% cost share
• Supply industry for robotics key-components, software (computervision, motion control, mobile navigation etc.) emerges
• Open Source Software systems hugely popular; e.g. >2/3 of allservice robot suppliers use Robot Operating System ROS (andother OSS)
• With €700M in funding from EU 2014 – 2020, SPARC is thelargest civilian-funded robotics innovation initiative in the world.
52
Conclusions
53
N.1 1961
• Both Industrial and Service Robotics are expected to grow in the forthcoming years at double digit rate.
• Industrial Robots shows an impressive growth in particular in Asian markets. Simplification, digitalizationand collaboration are the key developments.
• Service robots are expected to grow in all segments both professional and personal. Most robotproducers represented by SME and start ups.
Thanks!
Arturo Baroncelli
54