UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA

ALI REZA AFSHARI

FK 2012 30

DEVELOPMENT OF A FUZZY INTEGRAL GROUP MODEL BASED ON LINGUISTIC REASONING FOR PROJECT MANAGER SELECTION

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DEVELOPMENT OF A FUZZY INTEGRAL GROUP MODEL BASED ON

LINGUISTIC REASONING FOR PROJECT MANAGER SELECTION

By

ALI REZA AFSHARI

Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia,

in Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

September 2012

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Abstract of thesis to be presented to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

ABSTRACT

DEVELOPMENT OF A FUZZY INTEGRAL GROUP MODEL BASED ON

LINGUISTIC REASONING FOR PROJECT MANAGER SELECTION

By

ALI REZA AFSHARI

June 2012

Chairman: Professor Rosnah bt. Mohd. Yusuff, PhD

Faculty: Engineering

An important phase of human resource management is project manager selection,

which is concerned with identifying an individual from a pool of candidates suitable

for a vacant position. As in many decision problems, project manager selection

problem is very complex in real life. Some of the techniques in decision making are

multi criteria decision making (MCDM) can be used for project manager selection

process. Although many studies have investigated this problem, there are three

missing links in existing studies: Firstly, based on literature review, there is no

systematic and valid method for specifying the jobs requirements criteria have been

presented. Secondly, group decision making (GDM) is a very important factor for

solving the problem comprehensively. However, it has not been considered in the

majority of the reviewed studies. Thirdly, possible dependencies between the

criteria in the project manager selection model have not been considered in the

existing studies.

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The main objective of this research is to develop an analytical hybrid methodology

for project manager selection problem in order to identify criteria for project

manager selection by an extension of Delphi method, to evaluate a candidate by a

new group multi criteria decision making (GMCDM) model based on fuzzy set

theory, and develop a model based on linguistic extension of fuzzy measures and

fuzzy integrals for ranking candidates. The methodology of this research includes

four stages. The objective of the first stage is to eliciting criteria hierarchy for project

manager selection. In this stage, after reviewing pertinent literature, the Delphi based

method was used to seek the criteria from managers and experts. The objective of the

second stage is project manager evaluation based on new group fuzzy linguistic

modeling for determining criteria importance and candidate ratings. The objective of

the third stage is fuzzy aggregating and the objective of fourth stage is ranking the

candidates based on new linguistic fuzzy measure and fuzzy integral model.

The models were validated using three case studies of project manager selection in

three project based companies for a project manager position. The effectiveness of

the three new methods was demonstrated in these three case studies. The results

showed that the proposed models are appropriate for selecting project manager

considering dependency between criteria. Firstly, this study developed a structured

method for criteria selection. The use of a structured criteria selection method

encourages experts to focus on explicit and functional criteria, rather than to use

inappropriate criteria. As a contribution to the knowledge, this study extended the

classical Delphi technique through using the results of relevant literature review and

discussion with experts to identify the selection criteria. Secondly, this study

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developed a linguistic extension for evaluation. Decision makers cannot express

judgment in accurate numerical terms and use of linguistic labels makes decision

judgment more reliable and informative for decision making. Thirdly, this study

developed non additive method for aggregating stage in project manager selection. In

the real world, in dealing with the multiple criteria decision making problems, the

criteria are not independent. So they cannot be evaluated by conventional additive

measures and there must be better methods to distinguish the preferences by applying

a new nonlinear and non additive model, in which it is not necessary to assume

independence.

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Abstrk tesis dikemukakan kepada Senat Universiti Putra Malaysia sebagai memenuhi keperluan untuk ijazah Doktor Falsafah

PEMBANGUNAN MODEL KUMPULAN KAMIRAN SAMAR

BERDASARKAN PERTIMBANGAN LINGUISTIK UNTUK PEMILIHAN

PENGURUS PROJEK

Oleh

ALI REZA AFSHARI

Jun 2012

Pengerusi: Rosnah bt. Mohd. Yusuff, PhD

Fakulti: Kejuruteraan

fasa penting dalam pengurusan sumber manusia adalah pemilihan pengurus projek,

yang melibatakan mengenal pasti individu daripada kumpulan calon yang sesual

untuk pengisian jawatan kosong. Seperti dalam banyak masalah keputusan,

pemilihan pengurus projek adalah masalah yang sangat kompleks dalam kehidupan

sebenar. Beberapa teknik dalam membuat keputusan adalah keputusan pelbagai

kriteria membuat boleh digunakan untuk proses pemilihan pengurus

projek.Walaupun banyak kajian telah dijalankan untuk masalah ini, terdapat tiga

hubungan yang hilang dalam kajian yang sedia ada: Pertama, tidak ada kaedah yang

sistematik dan sah untuk menentukan kriteria keperluan pekerjaan yang telah

dibentangkan. Kedua, kumpulan membuat keputusan merupakan faktor yang sangat

penting untuk menyelesaikan masalah secara menyeluruh. Walau bagaimanapun, ia

tidak dipertimbangkan dalam majoriti kajian semula. Ketiga, mungkin

kebergantungan antara kriteria dalam pemilihan model pengurus projek tidak

dipertimbangkan dalam kajian yang sedia ada.

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Objektif utama kajian ini adalah untuk membangunkan satu kaedah analitikal hibrid

untuk masalah pemilihan pengurus projek bagi mengenal pasti kriteria pemilihan

pengurus projek melalui lanjutan kaedah Delphi, untuk menilai calon dari kumpulan

baru kriteria membuat keputusan berbilang model berdasarkan kabur set teori, dan

membangunkan model berdasarkan lanjutan linguistik langkah kabur dan kabur

kamiran untuk kedudukan calon. terdapat empat peringkat untuk metodologi dalam

kajianini. Objektif peringkat pertama adalah untuk memperlihatkan hierarki kriteria

pemilihan pengurus projek. Pada peringkat ini, selepas mengkaji kesusasteraan

penting, kaedah Delphi telah digunakan untuk mendapatkan kriteria daripada

pengurus dan pakar. Objektif peringkat kedua adalah penilaian pengurus projek

berdasarkan kumpulan baru kabur bahasa pemodelan untuk menentukan kepentingan

kriteria dan penilaian calon. Objektif peringkat ketiga adalah kabur mengagregat dan

objektif peringkat keempat ialah kedudukan calon-calon berdasarkan kepada langkah

baru linguistik kabur dan model penting kabur.

Model ini disahkan menggunakan kajian kes pemilihan pengurus projek dalam

syarikat berasaskan projek untuk jawatan pengurus projek. Keberkesanan tiga kaedah

baru telah ditunjukkan dalam kajian kes. Hash l kajian menunjukkan bahawa model

yang dicadangkan. adalah sesuai bagi memilih anggota berdasarkan pergantungan

antara kriteria. Pertama, penggunaan model kriteria pemilihan sistematik

menggalakkan pakar-pakar untuk memberi tumpuan kepada kriteria yang jelas dan

berfungsi, dan bukannya sebaliknya. Sebagai sumbangan kepada pengetahuan, kajian

ini meneruskan teknik Delphi klasik melalui penggunan hasil kajian literatur yang

berkaitan dan perbincangan dengan pakar-pakar untuk mengenal pasti kriteria

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pemilihan. Kedua, pembuat keputusan tidak dapat meluahkan penghakiman dari segi

ketepatan berangka dan penggunaan label linguistik membuat keputusan

penghakiman lebih dipercayai dan bermaklumat untuk membuat keputusan. Ketiga,

dalam dunia sebenar, dalam berurusan dengan pelbagai kriteria keputusan membuat

masalah, kriteria tidak terbatas. Jadi nnereka tidak boleh dinilai dengan langkah-

langkah tambahan konvensional dan harus mempunyai kaedah harus mempunyai

untuk nnembezakan keutamaan dengan menggunakan bahan tambahan baru linear

dan bukan model, di mana ia tidak perlu semestinya dianggap kebebasan.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to express my deepest gratitude and respect to my research supervisor

and the chairman of my supervisory committee, Professor Dr. Rosnah Mohd Yusuff,

for all his guidance, help and encouragement throughout my research studies. I am

also thankful to the members of the supervisory committee Associate Professor Dr.

Tang Sai Hong and Professor Dr. Yusuff Ismail for their support in this research

work and entire preparation of this doctoral dissertation. Without their guide in these

five years, I could not accomplish the thesis.

I am also deeply grateful to my wife, Vahideh, my son, Morteza, and my family for

their tremendous support to my study and life.

Finally, for those people who are not listed above but have given me a hand or

advice, I would also like to say a word of thanks for their support.

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I certify that a Thesis Examination Committee has met on 11 June 2012 to conduct

the final examination of Ali Reza Afshari on his thesis entitled “Development of a

Fuzzy Integral group model based on Linguistic reasoning for project manager

selection” in accordance with the Universities and University Colleges 1971 and the

Constitution of the Universiti Putra Malaysia [P.U.(A) 106] 15 March 1998. The

Committee recommends that the student be awarded the Doctor of Philosophy.

Members of the Examination Committee are as follows: Datin Dr Napsiah Ismail, PhD

Professor Faculty of Engineering

University Putra Malaysia (Chairman)

Dr Norzima Zulkifli, PhD

Faculty of Engineering

University Putra Malaysia (Internal Examiner)

Dr Mohd Khairol Anuar Mohd Ariffin, PhD

Associate Professor Faculty of Engineering

University Putra Malaysia (Internal Examiner)

Dr Abid Haleem, PhD

Professor

Faculty of Engineering and Technology University Jamia Millia Islamia

India (External Examiner)

______________________________ SEOW HENG FONG, PhD Professor and Deputy Dean

School of Graduate Studies Universiti Putra Malaysia

Date:

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This thesis was submitted to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia and has been

accepted as fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.

The members of the Supervisory Committee were as follows:

Rosnah bt. Mohd. Yusuff, PhD

Professor Faculty of Engineering University Putra Malaysia

(Chairman)

Tang Sai Hong, PhD

Associate Professor Faculty of Engineering

University Putra Malaysia (Member)

Md. Yusof Ismail, PhD

Professor

Faculty of Manufacturing Engineering University Malaysia Pahang (Member)

______________________________ BUJANG BIN KIM HUAT, PhD

Professor and Dean

School of Graduate Studies Universiti Putra Malaysia

Date:

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DECLARATION

I declare that the thesis is original work except for quotations and citations which

have been duly acknowledged. I also declare that it has not been previously, and is

not concurrently, submitted for any other degree at Universiti Putra Malaysia or at

any other institutions.

______________________________

ALI REZA AFSHARI

Date:

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT II

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VIII APROVAL ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. DECLARATION XI

LIST OF TABLES XV LIST OF FIGURES XVII

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS XVIII LIST OF APPENDICES XIX

CHAPTER

1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background of the study 1

1.2 Problem statement 5 1.3 Research objectives 7

1.4 Scope of research 7 1.5 Research contribution 8 1.6 Organization of the thesis 9

1.7 Summary 11

2. LITERATURE REVIEW 12

2.1 Introduction 12 2.2 Decision making theory 12

2.2.1 Multiple criteria decision making problem 14 2.2.1.1 Characteristics of criteria 15 2.2.1.2 Components of the MCDM model 15

2.2.2 Two brand categories of MCDM problems 17 2.2.2.1 Multiple objective decision making

(MODM) 18 2.2.2.2 Multiple attribute decision making (MADM)

20

2.2.3 Group decision making 21 2.2.3.1 The Delphi technique 21

2.2.3.2 Nominal group technique 22 2.3 Fuzzy decision making 24

2.3.1 Fuzzy set theory 24

2.3.2 Membership function 27 2.3.3 Linguistic variables 28

2.3.4 Triangular fuzzy number 30 2.4 Dependency between criteria in MCDM 35

2.4.1 Analytical network process (ANP) 36

2.4.2 Fuzzy synthetic utilities for ranking 36 2.4.2.1 Fuzzy measure 36

2.4.2.2 Fuzzy integral 38 2.5 Recent review of project manager selection problem 40

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2.5.1 Project manager selection as a decision making process 42

2.5.2 Classic MCDM approaches 44

2.5.2.1 AHP 45 2.5.2.2 ANP 47

2.5.2.3 TOPSIS 48 2.5.2.4 Expert systems 50 2.5.2.5 Grey relational method 52

2.5.2.6 Ordered weighted averaging (OWA) 53 2.5.2.7 Integrated approaches 53

2.5.3 Fuzzy environment decision making 54 2.5.3.1 Fuzzy linguistic modeling 54 2.5.3.2 Fuzzy expert systems 57

2.5.3.3 Fuzzy TOPSIS 58 2.5.3.4 Fuzzy multiple objective programming 60

2.5.3.5 Fuzzy AHP 62 2.5.3.6 Fuzzy ANP 63 2.5.3.7 Fuzzy OWA 63

2.5.3.8 Other fuzzy integrated methods 64 2.5.4 Observations and recommendations 65

2.5.4.1 Application areas 65 2.5.4.2 Most common method applied 67 2.5.4.3 Personnel selection criteria 68

2.5.4.4 Limitations of approaches 69 2.6 Summary 70

3. METHODOLOGY 71 3.1 Introduction 71

3.2 Justification for the research methodology 74 3.3 Developing systematic model for elicit selection criteria 75 3.4 Developing new fuzzy linguistic evaluation model 80

3.5 Developing a novel fuzzy synthetic utilities for ranking 87 3.6 Verification 88

3.7 Summary 89

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 91

4.1 Introduction 91 4.2 The model development 92

4.2.1 Developing systematic model for elicit selection criteria 92

4.2.2 Developing linguistic extension of fuzzy integral 92

4.3 The validation by case study 94 4.4 Project manager selection in MAPNA 95

4.4.1 Results and discussion for the elicit selection criteria 95 4.4.1.1 Designate the group of experts 96 4.4.1.2 Results of investigate previous studies 96

4.4.1.3 Results of the generate ideas 102 4.4.1.4 Results of the feedback to experts 102

4.4.1.5 Results of the final criteria and developing hierarchy 103

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4.4.1.6 Discussion on the using systematic criteria selection method 106

4.4.2 Results and discussion for the linguistic evaluation 108

4.4.2.1 Formation of the decision making group 108 4.4.2.2 Results of the determining criteria

importance 109 4.4.2.3 Results of the evaluating candidates 110 4.4.2.4 Discussion on group linguistic evaluation 114

4.4.3 Result and discussion for the fuzzy aggregation 115 4.4.3.1 Transfer linguistic variables to triangular

fuzzy numbers 116 4.4.3.2 Results of combining the fuzzy evaluation

values of decision makers 120

4.4.4 Results and discussion of the fuzzy synthetic utilities 123

4.4.4.1 Results of fuzzy measure and fuzzy integral 123

4.4.4.2 Algorithm for identifying λ 124

4.4.4.3 Discussion on criteria dependency overcoming 129

4.5 Project manager selection in SSP 131 4.5.1 Using Delphi for the elicit selection criteria 132 4.5.2 Identification of evaluation criteria weights 134

4.5.3 Candidate rating by fuzzy group decision making 135 4.5.4 Project manager selection by fuzzy aggregation 136

4.6 Project manager selection in Eberhard Shargh 138

4.6.1 Identification of evaluation criteria weights 139 4.6.2 Candidate rating by fuzzy group decision making 140

4.6.3 Project manager selection by fuzzy aggregation 141 4.7 Feedback from the case studies 142 4.8 Comparison of additive and non additive methods 143

4.8.1 Numerical example description 144 4.8.2 Solving numerical example by proposed method 147

4.8.3 Solving numerical example by fuzzy SAW 150 4.8.4 Comparative results and discussion 151

4.9 Summary 154

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 157

5.1 Introduction 157 5.2 Conclusions for research objectives 158 5.3 Recommendations for future research 160

REFERENCES 162

APPENDICES 170 BIODATA OF STUDENT 186

DEVELOPMENT OF A FUZZY INTEGRAL GROUP MODEL BASED ONLINGUISTIC REASONING FOR PROJECT MANAGER SELECTIONABSTRACTTABLE OF CONTENTSCHAPTERSREFERENCES