United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb

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Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental

risks“

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IOM – UNFPA Expert Workshop: International Dialogue on Migration - Bangkok, 2007

Impact of Gradual Environmental Change on Migration: a Global

perspective of Trends and Solutions

Prof. Dr. Ing. Janos J. Bogardi

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Starting Statements

• Climate has never been stable but we did not really notice.

• Land degradation started with agriculture, irrigation several thousand years ago.

• Urbanisation was seen as a sign of development.

• Migration is a steady component of human history.

…but things are spiraling out of control

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IPCC - Contribution of Working Group 1 to 4th Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis - February 2007

Source: IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Formally approved at the 10th Session of Working Group I of the IPCC, Paris, February 2007, p.6

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Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

• 15 of 24 ecosystem services are degraded or utilised in an unsustainable way, mainly by humans for the supply of specific services.

• This could accelerate the degradation of ecosystems - scientific evidence still required.

• The poor and especially rural poor are suffering most by the decline in ecosystem services.

• 2 billion people living in dry regions are extremely vulnerable to the loss of ecosystem services.

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 Some Conclusions on Drylands

• 10 to 20 percent of drylands are already degraded.

• Pressure is increasing on dryland ecosystems for providing services such as food, and water for humans & livestock, irrigation, and sanitation.

• Climate change is likely to increase water scarcity in regions that are already under water stress.

• Droughts are becoming more frequent and their continuous reoccurrence can overcome the coping mechanisms of communities.

Source: MA. 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Desertification Synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.

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Global Desertification Vulnerability

Source: USDA-NRCS. http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert.html

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The Unstoppable Trend of Urbanisation

• The accelerating spiral

Average size of the world’s 100 largest cities

Year Population Rate of Increase

1800 200,000 3.5%

1900 700,000~9.0%

2000 6,200,000 ?

In 2000 16 cities had more than 10 million inhabitants: 4% of the world population

• How many people must remain in the rural environment?

• Good Estimate: % of people needed to produce our food (could go down to 5%??)

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Income in small cities - Russia

107 117

159

188

50

100

150

200

250

300

in %

Balakhna Bor Kstovo Pavlovo

Cities

Average income per capita in relation to minimum subsistence level 2003

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Income in major cities - Russia

300

251 256

50

100

150

200

250

300

in %

Kazan NizhnyNovgorod

Samara

Cities

Average income per capita in relation to minimum subsistence level 2003

RF 2001: average income 2877,3 rMSL: 1500 r

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Human Security is at Stake

Economic

Political

Community

Personal

Environmental

Health

Food

Sustainable Human Development

Freedom from Want Freedom from Fear

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Freedom from Hazard Impacts

Societal activities

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Gap in Per Capita Income

YearRichest

CountriesPoorest

Countries

1960 30 : 1

1990 60 : 1

2000 80 : 1

The Widening Gaps: Pull and Push

Life Expectancy Differences

YearRichest

CountriesPoorest

Countries

1998 78 45

2002 81 (Japan) 40 (Malawi)

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Migration!

• Coping with global inequalities

• Voluntary or forced?

• How far environmentally driven?

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Tracing the Tracks:

• Where are the migrants coming from?

• Where will the migrants be coming from?

• Where are they going?

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Source:

SASI Group (University of Sheffield), Newman (University of Michigan) 2006, Net Emigration, http://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map18_ver5.pdf, accessed 15 February 2007

Territory size shows the relative quantity of net emigration in all territories (emigration less immigration).

Net Emigration

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Source:

SASI Group (University of Sheffield), Newman (University of Michigan) 2006,Net Immigration http://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map17_ver5.pdf, accessed 15 Feb 2007

Territory size shows the relative quantity of net immigration in all territories (immigration less emigration).

Net Immigration

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World Wealth Levels per Capita

Source: WIDER 2006 Wider Angle, No. 2, p4, World Institute for Development Economics Research, UNU, Finland

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World Wealth Levels per Capita

Source: WIDER 2006 Wider Angle, No. 2, p6, World Institute for Development Economics Research, UNU, Finland

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World Population Density and Potential Sea Level Rise up to 1 metre

Africa: Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

Asia: Russia, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia

Australia & West Pacific: Papua New Guinea, Australia, Fiji and Sth Pacific Islands

Europe & Middle East: Netherlands, Greenland, Ukraine and UK coastline

South America: Venezuela, Guyan, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil and Chile

North America: USA, Canada and Cuba

Source of sea-level rise date:http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise_old.htm#images

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Target zones of internal displacements and international migration

The “guiding lights”

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Migrations due to Mixture of “Push” and “Pull” Factors

• Some root causes include (Boswell and Crisp, 2004;

Hatton and Williamson, 2003; Schwartz and Notoni, 1994):– Economic factors (poverty, unemployment, wage

disparities)– Social factors (poor welfare or education;

demography)– Environmental factors (degradation of

ecosystems)– Degraded security conditions (disrespect for

human rights)– Existence of migrant networks

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• Droughts and loss of land productivity can become important factors triggering the movement of people from drylands to other areas (MA, 2005), particularly once coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies are impaired by the loss of ecosystem services.

• Sea level rise and environmental calamities may trigger migration.

• Disasters of “natural” origin may prompt people to leave.

Migration: Some Potential Environmental Drivers

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Debate over the Concept of Environmental Migrants / Refugees

• Critics (not exhaustive list):– Multiple “push” & “pull” factors so why highlight the

environmental component?– Poor definition of what is an Environmental

Migrant/Refugee– Risk of watering-down 1951 Convention relating to

the Status of Refugees– Use the argument put forward by others that

desertification, land degradation, climate change and sea level rise are not as serious problems as characterised by certain “lobbies”

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Adopting a Precautionary Principle

• “…estimates and projections of environmental refugees are based almost entirely on anecdotal evidence (…) [but] it is important not to trivialize the role environmental change and resource depletion may play in population movement.” (Lonergan and Swain 1999:2)

• Actions above all are needed to tackle the issue:– Actions related to the reduction of desertification rates and

climate change (considering all the dimensions) and when possible implement restoration and adaptation strategies

– Policies and actions that deal with the immediate and/or forthcoming issue of environmental migration / refugees

– The two need to be further developed in parallel

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Suggestion: Establish an Intergovernmental Panel on Land Degradation

• Concept along the lines of the IPCC:– Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic

information to understand:• risks linked to human-induced land degradation• potential impacts• options for adaptation and mitigation

– Scientific approach, not advocacy

– Regular assessments of state of knowledge on our lands and their soils including the social implications

Source: Vlek. 2005: Nothing begets nothing. The creeping disaster of land degradation. InterSecTions 1, UNU-EHS

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Proposed Categories of Environmental Migrants

Environmentally motivated migrants “pre-empting the worst”

– Individuals “may” leave a deteriorating environment which could still be rehabilitated

– Both temporary and permanent displacement / migration

– Examples: depopulation of old industrial and mining areas, most rural exoduses

– Case: rural exodus from Northeast Brazil to Sao Paolo due to long dry spells

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Proposed Categories of Environmental MigrantsCont’d…

Environmentally forced migrants “avoiding the worst”

– Individuals “have to” leave due to loss of livelihood – Mainly permanent displacement / migration– Examples: displacement or migration due to sea-level

rise or loss of topsoil– Case: out migration from the Sahel zone of Africa due

to desertification

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Proposed Categories of Environmental MigrantsCont’d…

Environmental refugees “fleeing the worst”

– Individuals “flee” rather than “leave”– Includes disaster refugees– Both temporary and permanent displacement /

migration– Resource base (ecosystem) may be severely affected – Examples: displacement or migration due to floods,

extensive drought– Case: exodus due to Hurricane Katrina in New

Orleans 2005

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Five Pronged Approach

• Science: – Establish and implement programs to allow a better

understanding between the cause-effects mechanisms between degradation of ecosystems and social systems

– Develop proper definitions of environmental migrations, environmental migrant/refugee.

– Provide long-term, sustained funding for research.

• Awareness: – Raise knowledge-based public and political awareness

and its social, economic, environmental dimensions

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Five Pronged Approach (cont‘d)

• Legislation : – Establish and implement a framework of

recognition of environmental migrants such as in a specific Convention or in parts of Intergovernmental Environmental Treaties

• Humanitarian aid: – Empower the United Nations system and other

major assistance organisations to provide aid to environmental migrants / refugees

• Institutional: – Devise concepts and establish institutions that are

able to assist the flux of environmental migrants

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Migration: a new look at an old problem within the UN system

• 1994: Re-thinking of migrations originated at the International Conference on Population and Development.

• 2003: High-Level Dialogue on international migrations and development.

• 2003: Launch of Global Commission on International Migration.

• 2005: Establishment of a high-level inter-institutional group to ensure effective institutional response to international migration.

UN, 2006

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Migration: a new look at an old problem within the UN system – cont’d

• 2006: Appointment of Special Representative on International Migration and Development.

• 2006: Outcome of the High-Level Dialogue - proposal by the Secretary-General to establish a consultative Forum to offer Governments a venue to discuss issues related to international migration and development.

• 2007: IOM – UNFPA Expert Workshop: International Dialogue on Migration – Bangkok, 22-23 February.

• 2007: UNU, UNHCR, GEF-UNDP information event on “Environmental Refugees: the Forgotten Migrants” in New York, UN Headquarters, 16 May.

UN, 2006

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Enhance the ongoing international debate on migration with the environmental component!

Appeal

Thank you.

Documents

United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb