United Bank of India 4Q FY 2013

7/30/2019 United Bank of India 4Q FY 2013

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United Bank of India | 4QFY2013 Result Update

May 20, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance (Standalone)Particulars (` cr) 4QFY13 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Interest earned 2,336 2,341 (0.2) 2,132 9.6 9,251 7,961 16.2- on Advances / Bills 1,719 1,699 1.2 1,606 7.0 6,899 6,034 14.3- on investments 581 611 (5.0) 491 18.4 2,259 1,878 20.3

- on balance with RBI & others 14 31 (53.7) 7 105.2 63 16 308.6

- on others 23 0 20,427.3 29 (21.8) 29 34 (12.3)

Interest Expended 1,772 1,707 3.8 1,513 17.1 6,764 5,482 23.4Net Interest Income 564 634 (11.1) 619 (8.9) 2,487 2,479 0.3Other income 351 258 35.9 238 47.6 1,067 733 45.5Other income excl. treasury 177 145 22.5 180 (1.2) 599 515 16.3

- Fee Income 48 47 1.1 48 (0.9) 195 183 6.6

- Treasury Income 174 114 53.0 58 198.3 467 218 114.8

- Income from Exchange transactions 25 26 (6.8) - - 107 28 14.3

- Others (incl. recoveries) 105 71 47.4 131 (20.0) 297 304 (2.4)

Operating income 915 892 2.5 857 6.8 3,554 3,212 10.6Operating expenses 404 377 7.3 379 6.6 1,504 1,383 8.7- Employee expenses 243 239 1.4 234 3.8 933 891 4.6

- Other Opex 162 137 17.6 146 11.0 571 492 16.1

Pre-provision Profit 511 516 (1.0) 478 6.9 2,050 1,829 12.1Provisions & Contingencies 759 450 68.6 307 147.4 1,759 983 78.9- Provisions for NPAs 339 314 7.9 342 (0.8) 1,011 690 46.5

- Other provisions 420 136 208.8 1 29,479.6 748 294 155.0

PBT (248) 66 - 171 - 291 845 (65.6)Provision for Tax (279) 24 - 22 - (101) 213 -PAT 31 42 (26.1) 149 (79.1) 392 633 (38.0)Effective Tax Rate (%) 112.6 35.8 7674bp 12.8 9978bp (34.9) 25.2 (6007)bp

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:4QFY2013 Actual vs. Angel estimatesParticulars (` cr) Actual Estimates % chgNet interest income 564 661 (14.7)

Non-interest income 351 232 51.3

Operating income 915 893 2.4Operating expenses 404 419 (3.6)

Pre-prov. profit 511 474 7.8Provisions & cont. 759 309 145.7

PBT (248) 165 (250.2)Prov. for taxes (279) 50 (653.5)

PAT 31 115 (72.8)Source: Company, Angel Research


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May 20, 2013 3

Exhibit 3:4QFY2013 performance (Standalone)Particulars 4QFY13 3QFY13 %chg (qoq) 4QFY12 %chg (yoy)Balance sheet

Advances (` cr) 68,909 64,427 7.0 63,043 9.3Deposits (` cr) 100,652 92,086 9.3 89,116 12.9

Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 68.5 70.0 (150)bp 70.7 (228)bp

Current deposits (` cr) 9,533 7,822 21.9 9,741 (2.1)

Saving deposits (` cr) 30,372 28,997 4.7 26,589 14.2

CASA deposits (` cr) 39,905 36,819 8.4 36,330 9.8

CASA ratio (%) 39.6 40.0 (34)bp 40.8 (112)bp

CAR (%) 11.7 11.9 (22)bp 12.7 (103)bp

Tier I CAR (%) 8.4 8.5 (9)bp 8.8 (39)bp

Profitability Ratios (%)Cost of deposits 7.1 7.0 10bp 6.7 40bp

Yield on advances 11.3 11.3 5bp 11.2 16bp

Calculated NIM 2.7 2.7 (1)bp 3.1 (44)bp

Cost-to-income ratio 44.2 42.2 196bp 44.2 (7)bp

Asset qualityGross NPAs (` cr) 2,964 2,902 2.1 2,176 36.2

Gross NPAs (%) 4.3 4.4 (17)bp 3.4 84bp

Net NPAs (` cr) 1,970 1,416 39.1 1,076 83.2

Net NPAs (%) 2.9 2.2 65bp 1.7 115bp

Provision Coverage Ratio (%) 62.5 67.3 (475)bp 69.2 (665)bp

Slippage ratio (%) 6.7 4.3 239bp 4.4 230bp

NPA to avg. assets (%) 1.2 1.2 4bp 1.4 (16)bp


Advance growth remains moderate; NIMs stable qoq

During 4QFY2013, the bank witnessed moderate growth in its business, as its

advances and deposits grew by 9.3% and 12.9% yoy respectively. Loan growth

was largely aided by higher Retail lending (22.9% yoy), MSME advances (21.5%

yoy) and priority sector & agri credit (15% & 17.5% each). On the liabilities front,

the current deposits de-grew by 2.1% yoy, while growth in savings deposits came

in moderate at 14.2% yoy. Overall, CASA deposits grew by 9.8% yoy, however,

CASA ratio dipped 112bp yoy to 39.6% (lower 34bp sequentially).

Reported NIMs for the bank remained stable sequentially at 2.7%, aided by a 5bp

sequential increase in the yield on advances at 11.3%, which offset a 10bp

sequential increase in cost of deposits to 7.1%.


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May 20, 2013 4

Exhibit 4:Business grew at a moderate pace


Exhibit 5:CASA ratio remains healthy at 40% levels


Exhibit 6:CoD increased by 10bp sequentially


Exhibit 7:NIMs stable sequentially


Strong growth in non-interest income aided by treasury gains

During the quarter the non-interest income (excluding treasury) de-grew by 1.2%

yoy to `177cr. However, treasury gains almost tripled yoy to `174cr, thereby

aiding a strong growth of 47.6% yoy in the overall non-interest income.

Asset quality pressures prevails, as slippages elevate to 6.7%

On the asset quality front, slippages came in much higher sequentially at `1,057cr

(annualized slippage ratio at 6.7%) compared to `680cr in 3QFY2013 (annualized

slippage ratio at 4.3%). Recoveries during the quarter remained stable sequentially

at `130cr. Gross and net NPA levels, on an absolute basis, were higher

sequentially by 2.1% and 39.1%, respectively. Gross NPA ratio decreased by 17bp

sequentially to 4.3%, while the net NPA ratio increased by 65bp to 2.9%. The

banks PCR dipped sequentially by 475bp to 62.5% (lower by 665bp yoy).

Additionally, the fresh restructuring during the quarter was `888cr, higher than

`629cr done in 3QFY2013. As of 4QFY2013, the banks outstanding restructured

book stood at `4,555cr (6.6% of advances).

17.8

19.4

13.1

10.1

9.3

14.5

16.3

18.7

11.2

12.9

70.770.1

66.1

70.068.5

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

Adv. yoy chg (%) Dep. yoy chg (%) CDR (%, RHS)

40.8

40.5

40.2

40.0

39.6

14.416.9 19.7

11.89.8

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

40.0

50.0


CASA ratio CASA yoy growth (%, RHS)

6.68

6.95

7.12

6.98

7.08

6.30

6.60

6.90

7.20


Cost of deposits(%)

3.113.05

2.602.68 2.67

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50


(%)


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May 20, 2013 5

Exhibit 8:NPA ratios remain on the higher side


Exhibit 9:Slippages elevate to 6.7%


Exhibit 10:Cost-to-income ratio trends


Exhibit 11:Fee income (excl. treasury) growth trends


3.4

3.5

3.9

4.4

4.3

1.7

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.9

69.2

69.3 69.2 67.3

62.5

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0


Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (%) PCR (%, RHS)

4.4

1.9

2.9

4.3

6.7

1.4

0.5

0.9

1.2 1.2

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.21.4

1.6

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.07.0

8.0


Slippages (%) Credit cost (%, RHS)

44.2

39.2

43.7

42.2

44.2

1.5

1.41.4 1.4

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0


Cost-to-income ratio (%) Opex to average assets (%, RHS)

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

39.1

30.224.5 22.9

(1.2)

(10.0)

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8


Fee income to avg assets (%) Fee income yoy chg (%, RHS)


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May 20, 2013 6

Investment arguments

Structurally stronger CASA than peers

UTDBK has historically had a strong CASA ratio. The banks average CASA ratioduring FY200513 has been 41.2%. Even during 4QFY2013, the bank had

maintained a strong CASA ratio of 39.6%, which is the highest among its peers,

which consists of banks like UCO Bank, Allahabad Bank, Dena Bank and

Syndicate Bank. Of the total CASA deposits, saving deposits, which are less

volatile, accounted for 30.2% of the total deposits, while current deposits

accounted for 9.5%. This high proportion of CASA deposits is mainly because of a

large retail customer base spread across the eastern and northeastern regions. Of

the total branch network of ~1,730 branches, 80% is concentrated in the eastern

and northeastern regions. Moreover, 58% of UTDBKs branches are located in

rural and semi-urban areas, giving the bank an access to low-cost deposits.

leading to stable NIMsIn 4QFY2010, UTDBK reported an NIM of 2.48%. However, measures taken by

the Management in the form of shedding high-cost bulk deposits (11.7% in

4QFY2013 as against nearly 30% two years ago), improvement in CASA ratio by

~155bp from 38.1% in 4QFY2010 to 39.6% in 4QFY2013 and a substantial

increase in CD ratio (~10 percentage points increase over the last two years) have

resulted in stabilizing the NIMs at 2.7% in 4QFY2013, despite facing asset quality

pressures. Further, we believe with a strong CASA ratio, the bank is better placed

than its peers to improve its NIMs, going forward.

Investment concerns

Lower other income compared to peers

Over FY2011-13, the bank other income excluding treasury grew at a CAGR of

16.9% yoy, at a higher pace than its loan book CAGR of 13.5% over the same

period. On account of the decent growth witnessed, other income (excluding

treasury) as a percentage of average assets, grew from 0.5% as of FY2011 to

0.6% as of FY2013, however, it still remain on the lower side compared to peers.

Outlook and valuation

The bank has witnessed higher asset quality pressures over the last few quarters,

as slippages and incremental restructuring came in at elevated levels. Going

ahead, we remain watchful of the banks performance on the asset quality front,

particularly incremental slippages/restructuring and recoveries/upgrades. The bank

is currently trading at an inexpensive valuation of 0.4x FY2015E ABV (one of the

lowest in the industry). Most of the banks peers are trading at 0.6x -0.7x FY2015E

ABV, in spite of having similar and in some cases much lower CASA ratios. Hence,we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `65.


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May 20, 2013 7

Exhibit 12:Key assumptionsParticulars (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimatesFY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015ECredit growth 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0Deposit growth 10.0 11.0 9.0 9.0

CASA ratio 43.4 44.1 40.0 41.4

NIMs 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.6

Other income growth (24.6) 4.5 (32.8) 6.2

Growth in staff expenses 15.0 10.0 15.0 10.0

Growth in other expenses 12.5 10.0 10.0 10.0

Slippages 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.0

Provision Coverage 72.5 75.0 66.0 70.0

Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 13:Change in estimatesParticulars (` cr) FY2014E FY2015EEarlierestimates Revisedestimates Var. (%) Earlierestimates Revisedestimates Var. (%)NII 2,883 2,727 (5.4) 3,262 3,237 (0.7)

Non-interest income 714 717 0.3 746 761 2.0

Operating income 3,597 3,443 (4.3) 4,008 3,998 (0.2)Operating expenses 1,733 1,701 (1.8) 1,906 1,871 (1.8)

Pre-prov. profit 1,864 1,742 (6.5) 2,102 2,127 1.2Provisions & cont. 839 861 2.7 799 847 6.0

PBT 1,026 881 (14.1) 1,303 1,280 (1.7)

Prov. for taxes 349 238 (31.7) 443 435 (1.7)

PAT 677 643 (5.0) 860 845 (1.7)Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 14:P/ABV band


40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mar-10

May-1

0

Jul-10

Sep-1

0

Nov-1

0

Jan-1

1

Mar-11

May-1

1

Jul-11

Sep-1

1

Nov-1

1

Jan-1

2

Mar-12

May-1

2

Jul-12

Sep-1

2

Nov-1

2

Jan-1

3

Mar-13

May-1

3

Jul-13

Sep-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan-1

4

Mar-14

Price (`) 0.5x 0.65x 0.8x 0.95x 1.1x


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May 20, 2013 8

Exhibit 15:Recommendation summaryCompany Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%) FY2015EP/ABV (x) FY2015ETgt. P/ABV (x) FY2015EP/E (x) FY2013-15EEPS CAGR (%) FY2015ERoA (%) FY2015ERoE (%)

AxisBk Buy 1,530 1,853 21.1 1.7 2.0 10.0 17.3 1.6 17.6

FedBk Neutral 470 - - 1.0 - 7.6 12.4 1.2 14.2

HDFCBk Neutral 715 - - 3.4 - 16.8 22.8 1.8 21.8

ICICIBk* Buy 1,209 1,444 19.5 1.7 2.1 12.6 15.5 1.5 15.6

SIB Neutral 25 - - 0.9 - 5.6 9.5 1.0 17.0

YesBk Neutral 530 - - 2.2 - 11.1 14.9 1.3 22.1

AllBk Accumulate 130 149 14.3 0.5 0.6 3.6 12.6 0.8 14.2

AndhBk Neutral 92 - - 0.6 - 4.0 (0.3) 0.7 13.0

BOB Buy 737 851 15.4 0.8 0.9 5.2 15.9 0.9 15.7

BOI Accumulate 322 361 12.3 0.7 0.8 4.7 21.6 0.7 15.0

BOM Accumulate 58 64 9.4 0.6 0.7 4.3 13.4 0.7 16.0

CanBk Accumulate 446 481 7.9 0.7 0.8 5.2 15.1 0.8 14.2CentBk Accumulate 70 75 7.0 0.6 0.7 3.9 48.4 0.6 13.8

CorpBk Buy 420 495 18.1 0.5 0.7 3.9 7.1 0.7 14.5

DenaBk Neutral 95 - - 0.5 - 3.7 5.0 0.7 15.1

IDBI# Accumulate 91 98 7.8 0.5 0.6 4.0 26.5 0.8 13.4

IndBk Buy 159 185 16.1 0.6 0.7 3.8 8.8 1.0 15.1

IOB Accumulate 64 70 8.3 0.4 0.5 3.1 83.4 0.7 13.4

J&KBk Neutral 1,316 - - 1.0 - 6.5 (3.8) 1.1 16.1

OBC Neutral 273 - - 0.6 - 4.3 18.4 0.8 13.3

PNB Buy 834 993 19.2 0.8 0.9 4.7 14.8 1.1 16.5

SBI* Accumulate 2,413 2,669 10.6 1.3 1.5 8.6 16.4 1.0 17.0

SynBk Accumulate 133 142 6.7 0.7 0.7 4.4 (4.4) 0.7 15.9

UcoBk Neutral 81 - - 0.8 - 5.6 36.9 0.6 12.6

UnionBk Accumulate 241 260 7.6 0.7 0.8 5.0 15.7 0.7 15.4

UtdBk Accumulate 58 65 12.4 0.4 0.5 2.8 56.5 0.6 14.8VijBk Neutral 55 - - 0.6 - 4.8 9.6 0.4 12.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries) # without adjusting for SASF

Company Background

United Bank of India is a mid-sized public sector bank, with operations mostly

concentrated in the eastern and northeastern states of India (80%). These states

have contributed to the bank's high CASA deposits, though low credit demand

especially in the northeast has prompted the bank to so far rely more on large

corporate loans, including in consortium.


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May 20, 2013 9

Income statement (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15ENII 1,162 1,391 2,169 2,479 2,487 2,727 3,237- YoY Growth (%) 28.4 19.8 55.9 14.3 0.3 9.6 18.7Other Income 491 559 637 733 1,067 717 761- YoY Growth (%) 5.5 13.8 14.0 15.0 45.5 (32.8) 6.2

Operating Income 1,652 1,950 2,806 3,212 3,554 3,443 3,998- YoY Growth (%) 20.6 18.0 43.9 14.5 10.6 (3.1) 16.1

Operating Expenses 1,045 1,074 1,299 1,383 1,504 1,701 1,871- YoY Growth (%) 15.7 2.8 21.0 6.5 8.7 13.1 10.0

Pre - Provision Profit 607 876 1,507 1,829 2,050 1,742 2,127- YoY Growth (%) 30.0 44.2 72.1 21.4 12.1 (15.0) 22.1

Prov. & Cont. 431 465 838 980 1,759 861 847- YoY Growth (%) 49.7 8.0 80.1 17.0 79.5 (51.1) (1.6)

Profit Before Tax 176 411 669 849 291 881 1,280- YoY Growth (%) (1.6) 132.6 63.0 26.8 (65.8) 203.3 45.3

Prov. for Taxation 62 88 145 216 (101) 238 435- as a % of PBT 35.0 21.5 21.7 25.5 (34.9) 27.0 34.0

PAT 115 322 524 633 392 643 845- YoY Growth (%) (20.9) 181.0 62.5 20.7 (38.0) 64.1 31.4

Preference Dividend - 17 67 87 79 79 79PAT for Eqty.SH 115 305 457 546 313 564 766- YoY Growth (%) (20.9) 166.1 49.7 19.4 (42.7) 80.4 35.8

Balance sheet (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15EShare Capital 1,782 866 1,144 1,161 1,175 1,175 1,175

Equity 1,532 316 344 361 375 375 375

Preference 250 550 800 800 800 800 800

Reserves & Surplus 1,295 3,037 3,877 4,419 4,709 5,143 5,734

Deposits 54,536 68,180 77,845 89,116 100,652 109,710 119,584

- Growth (%) 16.1 25.0 14.2 14.5 12.9 9.0 9.0

Borrowings 457 915 2,887 3,195 3,261 3,547 3,857

Tier 2 Capital 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,725 1,682 1,640 1,599

Other Liab & Prov. 2,436 2,481 2,763 2,394 3,137 3,456 3,633Total Liabilities 62,031 77,005 90,041 102,010 114,615 124,671 135,583Cash balances 4,532 4,707 5,943 5,092 3,847 4,937 5,381

Bank balances 1,878 1,671 1,385 2,185 5,142 2,493 2,712

Investments 17,924 26,068 26,259 29,059 33,463 34,483 32,568

Advances 35,394 42,330 53,502 63,043 68,909 79,245 91,132

- Growth (%) 27.0 19.6 26.4 17.8 9.3 15.0 15.0

Fixed Assets 624 651 819 805 857 904 954

Other Assets 1,679 1,578 2,133 1,826 2,397 2,608 2,836

Total Assets 62,031 77,005 90,041 102,010 114,615 124,671 135,583- Growth (%) 14.2 24.1 16.9 13.3 12.4 8.8 8.8


10/11


May 20, 2013 10

Ratio analysis (Standalone)Y/E March FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15EProfitability ratios (%)NIMs 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.6Cost to Income Ratio 63.3 55.1 46.3 43.1 42.3 49.4 46.8

RoA 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6

RoE 5.1 11.6 14.1 14.2 7.3 12.1 14.8

B/S ratios (%)CASA Ratio 37.8 38.1 40.8 40.8 39.6 40.0 41.4

Credit/Deposit Ratio 64.9 62.1 68.7 70.7 68.5 72.2 76.2

CAR 13.3 12.8 13.1 12.7 11.7 11.4 11.3

- Tier I 7.6 8.2 8.9 8.8 8.3 8.3 8.4

Asset Quality (%)Gross NPAs 2.8 3.2 2.5 3.4 4.2 4.5 4.6

Net NPAs 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.7 2.9 2.5 2.1

Slippages 2.9 2.7 2.3 3.6 3.9 2.3 2.0

Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.5

Provision Coverage 48.5 68.0 72.1 69.2 62.5 66.0 70.0

Per Share Data (`)EPS 0.7 9.6 13.3 15.1 8.3 15.1 20.4

ABVPS (75% cover.) 13.6 86.3 101.2 109.0 101.0 116.2 137.5

DPS 0.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.1 3.0 4.0

Valuation RatiosPER (x) 77.6 6.0 4.4 3.8 7.0 3.9 2.8

P/ABVPS (x) 4.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4

Dividend Yield - 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.6 5.2 6.9

DuPont AnalysisNII 2.0 2.0 2.60 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.5

(-) Prov. Exp. 0.7 0.7 1.00 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.7

Adj. NII 1.3 1.3 1.59 1.6 0.7 1.6 1.8

Treasury 0.4 0.3 0.24 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0

Int. Sens. Inc. 1.6 1.6 1.83 1.8 1.1 1.6 1.9

Other Inc. 0.5 0.5 0.53 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5

Op. Inc. 2.1 2.1 2.36 2.3 1.7 2.2 2.4

Opex 1.8 1.5 1.56 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4PBT 0.3 0.6 0.80 0.9 0.3 0.7 1.0

Taxes 0.1 0.1 0.17 0.2 (0.1) 0.2 0.3

RoA 0.2 0.5 0.63 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6Preference Dividend - 0.0 0.08 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

ROA after Pref Div 0.2 0.4 0.55 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6Leverage 25.7 26.4 25.84 24.9 25.2 25.7 25.2

RoE 5.1 11.6 14.14 14.2 7.3 12.1 14.8


11/11


May 20 2013 11

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement United Bank of India

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below`

1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Documents

United Bank of India 4Q FY 2013