Unit II

American Political Culture: Liberty • Personal Liberty -We see it as freedom to• Bill of Rights, 14th Amendment, Civil Rights, liberties

American Political Culture: Equality• Political Equality -All are equal under the law

• Evolved and still evolving•Women, minorities, etc.

Equal Opportunity v. Equal Results• Equality of Opportunity• A view that it is wrong

to use race or sex either to discriminate against or give preferential treatment to minorities or women

• Equality of Results• A view that government

should do everything in its power to guarantee all a standard quality of life

AMERICA’S DEMOGRAPHICS:WHO ARE WE?

• Three major demographic changes in U.S.•Minority Majority•Regional Shifts•Graying of America

•Demographics = science of population changes•Gender•Occupation•Race•Religion• social class

By 2030, more than half the youth in the U.S. will be of a racial and/or ethnic minority.

What will the growth of the Minority Majority mean for politics in the U.S.?

“Minority-Majority” emerging

America’s Demographics: Who are we?• REGIONAL SHIFTS- Demographics have changed with ourmobility- From the Rust Belt…PA, OH, MI to the Sun Belt… South and West – FLORIDA- Dramatic changes in FL & TX from “Frost Belt”- Cause political changes every 10 years after the census- REAPPORTIONMENT of the 435 seats in the House- FL now has 27 House seats, 29 electoral votes!

GRAY POWER• “Organized influence exerted by seniors.” • For 1st time in U.S. history, the “senior” segment of the population has become largest segment of the population• Baby boomers now represent 26% of the population and 40% of the economy• They will collect approximately $5 trillion in Social Security benefits!• AARP is the largest special interest group today & possesses the most political clout

The Socialization of politics =

• The development of traditions, values and ideologies of the American political animal.• HOW is political socialization acquired?• More through formal or informal learning?

• Agents of political socialization? families mass media tradition + customs schools

• Which is the primary source?

How do we know how America is changing?

• POLLING!

• Public Opinion:• An aggregate of

the individual views, attitudes, and beliefs about a particular topic, expressed by a significant proportion of a community Public Opinion Polls are

conducted by news organizations, politicians, candidates, interest groups

• Early 1950’s George Gallup “polled” a microcosm of American political thought –

a Sample

the more “random” the better. .o everyone should have a chance of being

selected. . 1,000 to 1,500 usually enough What is “Stratified Sampling?” Samples are not perfect – there is a sampling

error of about 3-4% in a typical poll

Types of Polls• Exit Polls• Questioned right

after voting• Indicates who

people voted for

• Census Tracks/Tracking Polls• Questioning

specific groups within the population• Indicates the

public’s tendencies across a specific period of time

More Types of Polls• Push-“Push polls” AAPOR defines a "push

poll" as a form of negative campaigning that is disguised as a political poll. “Push polls” are actually political telemarketing – telephone calls disguised as research that aim to persuade large numbers of voters and affect election outcomes, rather than measure opinions.

• Perhaps the most famous use of push polls is in 2000 Republican Primaries, when it was alleged that George W. Bush’s campaign used push polling to torpedo the campaign of Senator John McCain. Voters in SC reportedly were asked "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?" This hypothetical question seemed like a suggestion, although without substance. It was heard by thousands of primary voters. McCain and his wife had in fact adopted a Bengali girl

• Straw-an unofficial vote taken to obtain an indication of the general trend of opinion on a particular issue • Example (RNC 2016

candidates)• Make your own

Generator

• Supporters of polls feel that polls assist politicians in “detecting” public preferences. . .Are there shifts in thinking . . . Should they create possible “shifts” in policy making?• Those who think polls are detractors point out

that it has become the issue of selling policy instead of possibly doing what’s right! - avoiding compromises to appease radical shifts. Politicians love polls when they agree with them, they hate them when they disagree.

• Bandwagon effects. . .people jump on

board. . .instead of being prudent and doing their own research• Elections too often tied to them. . .takes over

issue development.• Exit poll can control elections.

• For ex., the Florida debacle in the 2000 election. Gore won Florida, and then lost Florida. . .and then it was too close to call.…..

• The questions are the key. . .and a major problem is that too often they are misleading!

Determining Poll Legitimacy• Who conducted/sponsored the poll?

• Neutral polling organizations would produce the most accurate results

• Political parties or other biased organizations would not

• How many persons were interviewed?• Minimum 1,000 people• Reduces the margin of error

• Who was interviewed?• Many people choose not to participate in

polls; this can skew the results• How were the questions worded?

• Pollsters must be careful how to ask the question

• When was the poll conducted?• Temporary passions can also skew the results

• How was the poll conducted?• Phone, Internet, On the street

Gallup Poll• About Gallup• Gallup delivers forward-thinking

research, analytics, and advice to help leaders solve their most pressing problems. Combining more than 75 years of experience with its global reach, Gallup knows more about the attitudes and behaviors of the world's constituents, employees, and customers than any other organization.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voter-polls-will-usually-overrate-democrats/

Group Factors that Affect Public Opinion, Political Socialization & Political Ideology:

• Race/Ethnicity: Affiliations are based on freedom-equality issues and socioeconomic conditions

• White-Favor Republican• Black-Overwhelmingly favor Democrats• Hispanic

• Overwhelmingly favor Democrats• Except Cubans

• Asian-relatively neutral

Progression of Race and Voting• 15th Amendment (1870)

• The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.

• 24th Amendment (1964)• Prohibits a poll tax as

qualification to vote• Voting Rights Act (1965)

• Prevents states from denying citizens the right to vote based on race.

• Helps enforce the 15th Amendment.

Group Factors that Affect Public Opinion & Political Ideology:

• The Gender Gap• Differences in political views

and voting behavior of men and women

• Men tend to favor• Republicans• Conservatives

• Women tend to favor• Democrats• Liberals

Differences between Men and Women• Role of Government: Doing too

much?• Yes: women (50%); men (66%)

• Social Programs: Favor cuts?• Favor: women (47%) men (60%)

• Should more be done to expand good, affordable child care, or should it be left to families and individuals?• Do more: women (63%); men

(41%)

• Should fed government guarantee medical care?• Yes: women (69%) men (58%)

• Poverty and homelessness important:• One of most impt probs:

wom(63%); men 44%• Should affirmative action be

continued or abolished? Abolished: wom 36%, men 52%

• Do you think women have equal job opps• No: women 69% men 59%

Group Factors that Affect Public Opinion & Political Ideology:FAMILY INCOME LEVELThe higher one’s income,the more likely they are to…

• Register to vote• Vote• Vote Republican

Effect of Education: The more education one has the more likely they will:

• Register to vote• Vote• Vote Democrat• (at least in the

beginning)• Participate in

various methods

• Jewish persons & Black Protestants are generally the most liberal of all religious groups• Catholics• Liberal EXCEPT on social

issues• Protestants• Conservative,

particularly in South / Bible Belt

• Jews• Liberal Democrats

Group Factors …..Religion

Urban v. Suburbanv. Rural America

• Population Density• The more people living in

your area, the more democratic your area tends to be• Higher populated cities tend

to benefit more from federal spending• More government services

are needed in densely populated areas

Regional Factors that Affect Public Opinion & Political Ideology:

Region• South

• Traditionally votes heavily Republican• Many Christian conservatives

• East Coast (Northeast)• Large ethnic mix, heavily unionized, large urban areas• Most liberal region of the country, Democrats

• Midwest tends to be a mixture of the two ideologies• Has heavy union activity….Democrats (MI, IL,)• Also has large amount of rural areas/farmers …

conservative Republicans (IA, MO…) • West Coast

• Traditionally liberal; environmental concerns• Some large urban areas• Getting a bit more of a mixture due to migration patterns

Region• Summary of Voting trends by

region• Northeast

• Democrat• Midwest

• Republican• South

• Republican• West

• Democrat• Swing States

• Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania

Democratic Party - a net loss of six electoral votes in safe states, for a national total of 242Republican Party - a net gain of seven electoral votes in safe states, for a national total of 181Swing states a net loss of one, for a national total of 115.

2012 ELECTORAL VOTES

• Added slides 37 to 47 to fit in Voting Behavior

Which of the following individuals is most likely to vote for the Democratic party?A. a high income individualB. a highly educated individualC. a ProtestantD. an African AmericanE. a man

Which of the following individuals is most likely to vote for the Democratic party?A. a high income individualB. a highly educated individualC. a ProtestantD. an African AmericanE. a man

How has the racial and ethnic composition of voters changed?

ODDS AND ENDS• 1. Education (more equals higher turnout)• 2. Income (higher usually related to turnout)• 3. 26th Amendment (1971- age now 18)• 4. African-Americans tend to vote less than

whites.• 5. Puerto Ricans can only vote on Mainland• 6. McCain-Feingold and the attempt at

Campaign financing reform

Which of the following individuals is most likely to vote?

A. A white person with an annual income of $35,000 or higher

B. A Hispanic person with an annual income of $35,000 or less

C. A 21 year old who did not finish high schoolD. An felon serving a prison sentenceE. An African American with an annual income

of $65,000 or higher

Which of the following individuals is most likely to vote?

A. A white person with an annual income of $35,000 or higher

B. A Hispanic person with an annual income of $35,000 or less

C. A 21 year old who did not finish high schoolD. An felon serving a prison sentenceE. An African American with an annual income of $65,000 or higher

WHY IS VOTER TURNOUT SO LOW

• Registration Difficulty• Extend Voting in Presidential Elections to 2

or 3 days?• Reduce Voting Age to 16? (see page 492)• Reduce restrictions on convicted felons?• Ease absentee voting restrictions?• Belief that vote “just doesn’t matter because

nothing ever changes”

What is the number one reason people in the United States don’t vote?

A.They are too busy.B.They are satisfied with their lives.C.They encounter bad weather while

trying to vote.D.They forget.E.They don’t have transportation to the

polling station.

What is the number one reason people in the United States don’t vote?

A.They are too busy.B.They are satisfied with their lives.C.They encounter bad weather while

trying to vote.D.They forget.E.They don’t have transportation to the

polling station.

Analyzing Visuals: Why people Don’t Vote