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8/2/2019 Unit 3 Contested Planet Energy Security
1/23
6GEO3 Unit 3 Contested Planet
Energy Security
8/2/2019 Unit 3 Contested Planet Energy Security
2/23
What is this topic about?
Energy is fundamental to ourlives, and we often take it forgranted
This topic explores our energy
supply, and asks challengingquestions about it
Can we continue to rely onfossil fuels, or do we need aradical switch in energysources?
Energy is very closely linked toclimate change as fossil fuels(our main energy source) arethe main source of greenhousegas emissions.
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1. Energy supply, demand and
security
2. The impacts of energy insecurity
3. Energy security and the future
CONTENTS
Click on the information icon to jump to that section.
Click on the home button to return to this contents page
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1. Energy supply, demandand security
There are a wide range of energy resources, with different security ofsupply and environmental issues:
Non-renewable Renewable Recyclable
A finite stock of resources,which will run out
A flow of resources, whichis infinite in human terms
Can be used repeatedly, ifmanaged carefully
Coal, oil, gas (plus oil shale,tar sands, lignite etc.)
Wind, solar, hydroelectric,wave, tidal, geothermal
Biomass, nuclear (withreprocessing of fuel)
Significant environmental
impacts during extraction(oil wells, opencast mines)Greenhouse gas emissions
during use, and acidicemissions
May require large areas
(solar arrays, wind farms)for operation.NIMBY issues.
Limited / no greenhouseemissions.
Large land area needed
for biomass.Largely unresolvedissues of storing high
level radioactive waste.
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Life cycle analysis
Comparing the environmental impact of
different energy sources is a challenge Life cycle greenhouse emissions is one
approach
Even this does not account for NIMBY issues(e.g. windfarms), or the loss of ecosystemsand biodiversity linked to extraction offossil fuels
Some sources, such as nuclear and biomassare highly controversial and there isintense debate over their green
credentials.
Life cycle analysis accounts for
C02 emissions at all stages
of the energy supply chain, notsimply during use
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Access to energy
Direct access to fossil fuelreserves is a coincidence of
geological history andinternational boundaries.
Some countries find themselveswith more fossil fuel sourcesthan their needs
Others have none Reserves run down over time, as
is the gas with the UKs once
abundant North Sea oil and gas
Remaining oil and gas willincreasingly concentrate in the
Middle East over the next 30years.
Top 15 countries by oil, gas and coalreserves in 2008
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Access to renewables
Most renewable energy is constrained byphysical geography, and especially climate
This means its availability is place specific
The UK has significant renewable potential,especially wind, although it is a smallcountry with limited land area; most HEPsites are already used.
Many renewables are intermittent energysources, so energy must be stored (verycostly and technically difficult) or backedup by another source
Source Physical limitations
Wind Requires wind speeds of 8-25 mph
Solar PV Works best in areas of over 6 kwhper sq. metre per day
Biomass Requires large land area forfeedstock
HEP Suitable valleys i.e. long, deep andrelatively narrow, and predictable
water supply
UK renewable potential
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Access to energy
Which energy sources are used is not simply a matter of whichfossil fuels or renewable forms are available in a country
Other factors influence choice of energy sources
Cost is critical, as people are sensitive to energy sources
Nuclear power station construction ground to a standstill afterthe 1986 Chernobyl accident.
Technology
Technology is required to drill, mine, process etc, and is notavailable everywhere e.g. LDCs.
Attitudes
Public attitudes may be anti-nuclear, or NIMBYISM may block windturbines or dams.
Cost
While desirable, technologies like wave and hydrogen may be tooexpensive due to technical challenges.
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Energy poverty
Lack of access to energy resources is common in the developing world
Reliance of fuel wood, farm waste and dung is high and fossil fuel
consumption low Up to 40% of the worlds population rely on these sources as their
primary cooking and heating fuel
Close to 2 billion people have no access to electricity
Access to cheap, reliable energy is strongly related to development as
so much of modern life and industry depends on it.
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Demand
Global demand for energyhas risen dramatically,especially since the 1960s
Demand doubled between1960 and 1980
Growth in demand has beenslower since 1980, but isprojected to rise by up to
60% between 2002 and 2030and continue upward.
The BRIC countries, as wellas other large developingnations (Mexico, Indonesia)have contributed to much to
recent increases in demandand are likely to do so in thefuture.
Further industrialisationinevitably brings demands forcars and consumer goods, allof which need power.
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Security
Energy security depends ona number of factors (see
table) Countries with a diverse
energy mix are less at risk
than those relying on 1 or 2sources
Renewable potential couldbe used to offset decliningfossil fuel reserves orsupply interruptions
Reliance on long distanceinternational trade in fossil
fuels may be risky Demand and dependency
are important too, as it isdifficult to replace a largeamount of oil with anotherenergy source for instance
Domestic fossil
fuel reserves
Countries like Italy andJapan have few of their
own resources
Domestic renewable
potential
Small, crowded nations likeSingapore and South Korea
lack renewable potential
Domestic energy
mix
France relies heavily onnuclear power, and the
UK on gas.
Import pathway
risk
The UK imports gas fromRussia and Qatar, both long
distance pathways.
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2. The impacts of energy insecurity
Fossil fuel supply regions are
poorly matched with areas oflargest demand
This is especially true for oiland gas
Energy must flow along
internationalpathways fromproducer to consumer
These are either pipelines(oil and gas), bulk carriers(coal, uranium), LNG tankers(gas) or oil tankers.
Electricity is also exported /imported.
Pathways could bedisrupted, increasing energyinsecurity.
Pathwaydisruption
Price andpaymentdisputes Piracy e.g.
off theSomalicoast
Terrorism
or conflictclosingchokepoints
Politicaldiscord
betweensupplier
andconsumer
Diversion
of supply,perhaps
for ahigherprice
Technicalinterruptio
n toproduction
Producerssupplysimply
runs out
Naturaldisasters
e.g.hurricaneKatrina
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Risks of disruption
Gas pipeline disruption has already occurred, as disputes between Russiaand Ukraine disrupted European gas supplies in 2006 and 2009
Russia holds 25% of world gas reserves, the Middle East 40% (and 56% ofoil)
Disruption to narrow ocean choke points (see map) could seriously affectthe flow of oil
Countries close to some choke points are unstable (Iran, Somalia, Yemen)
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Risks of disruption
There are real risks if oil and gassupplies are disrupted.
Any potential disruption is headlinenews
So dependent are we on cheap,uninterrupted energy supplies thatdisruption could lead to:
1. Soaring energy costs and risingenergy poverty
2. Pressure on politicians to act;
possibly rationing energy
3. Civil disruption
4. Rising costs for industry, job lossesand recession
5. Unsound decisions (economically
and environmentally) to rapidly
develop alternative sources
6. Diplomatic conflict
UK energy disruption
Oct1973 Oil crisis; petrolrationing
Sept
2000
UK wide fuel protestsover price and tax
Aug
2005
Further UK protests;
Hurricane Katrinapushes oil prices higher
Aug
2008
Oil at $147 a barrel
Jan
2010
National Grid gas
balancing alerts areheadline news ; gassupply from Norwaydrops on technicalproblems
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Supply: new sources
As oil prices remain high, and fears of peak oil and gas increase the
search is on for new sources:
Example Source Technical challenge Environmentalimpacts
Canadian(Athabasca)tar sands
Bitumen combinedwith sand / rockunder boreal forests;close to surface
MODERATE
Strip mining or extraction bysteam; gas is used to heatthe sands and extract oil.
HIGH
Energy intensive extractionand destruction ofecosystems
Arctic oil Conventional oil infragile wildernessregion, both on andoffshore
LOWConventional drilling andextraction; Arctic oil hasbeen taken from PrudhoeBay for decades.
MODERATEFragile environment butproduction has relativelysmall footprint
West ofShetland,
Foinaven field
Conventional oil indeep ocean water
HIGH
Production began in 1997,
but using floating rigs
LOW
Low risk of spills and
limited impact on sea bed
USA (GreenRiver) oilshale
Bitumen encased insolid rock
MODERATE
Opencast mining, then canbe directly burnt or heatedto drive off oil.
HIGH
Large areas mined, scarringlandscape and energyintensive production
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Viable alternatives? The chart below shows the estimates oil price required for each
energy resource to be competitive with oil and gas without any form
of State support or subsidyEconomic viability of energy sources
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Conventional Oil Middle East
Conventional Oil other
Deep water oil
Oil Shale
Coal to liquids
Tar sands
Sugar cane ethanol
USA Corn ethanol
European biodiesel
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Oil price US$
Source: the FT 2009
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Players
The diagram below summarises the role of some key players in the energysupply
EnergyPlayers
Governments
National energy mix;renewable policy;
subsidies and grants
Generators andDistributors
Vital infrastructure(National Grid) and power
stations
Environmentalists
Pressure to adoptrenewables and reduce
carbon intensity; campaigns
OPEC
Key role in the global oil price,by managing production
Scientists, R&D
Research into alterative fuelsand applications ; efficiency
gains
Energy TNCs
Exploration for reserves,exploitation and refining;
distribution of oil
Consumers
Often highly pricesensitive; can exert
pressure on politicians.
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Big oil: TNCs and OPEC
Supermajor andother oil and gasTNCs control mostoil and gasextraction,refining anddistribution.
State owned oilcompanies own /control access to95% of world oiland gas reserves
OPEC is
effectively a pricecontrol cartel,with considerablepower.
Supermajor TNCs State owned oil giants
Total Fr Saudi Aramco Saudi ArabiaBP UK Gazprom Russia
Shell UK/Nl CNPC China
Chevron USA Petrobras Brazil
ExxonMobil USA NOIC Iran
ConocoPhilips USA PDVSA Venezuela
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There are several keyuncertainties relating to
energy futures: Future demand is uncertain
it partly depends on future
population andeconomicgrowth
The lifespan of fossil fuel
reserves, especially oil, isunknown
The extent to which we
exploit unconventional oil
(see image)
The extent and timing ofswitching from fossil fuel to
renewables is uncertain.
Peak oil and gas areimportant; after peakproduction prices can only
rise.
3. Energy security and the future
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The nuclear option?
Opinion is divided over whethernuclear power is the answer
It provides about 15% of theworlds electricity, but only 2% of
all energy needs
There are over 400 reactors in 30countries, but few currently
being built
Advantages Disadvantages
Fuel sources (seemap)Low life cyclecarbon emissions.Constant poweroutputTakes up little
space .Large power outputper plant
Public distrust.High initial cost.Long build times.High level wastedisposal.Fears of terrorism.Nuclear
proliferation.Technicallychallenging
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Biofuels?
Biofuels have the advantage ofbeing flexible liquids
As such they can replace diesel(biodiesel) and petrol (bio-ethanol)
However, they require foodcrops as feedstocks (sugar cane,
maize etc) This means land that could be
used for food.
In 2007-08 explosive growth ofbiofuel crop area was blamed forpushing up global food prices
Biofuels are not carbon neutral,because of the energy used infarming, transport and refining.
Future biofuels might not use
food crops:1st generation food crops
2nd generation crop wastes3rd generation algae
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Geopolitics
There are a number of sources of tension, both present and future,related to energy security and the threat of insecurity:
Scenario Explanation Consequences
Oil hits $100 Sustained oil price of over $100 perbarrel, for several years.
Prolonged economic recessionand rising fuel poverty in OECDcountries
Middle Eastmeltdown
Tensions in the Gulf escalate into warbetween Muslim factions; possibly
involving Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Turkeyand others.
Interruption of oil and gas flows;rising prices; tension between
China and USA to secure oil supply
The nuclearoption
Wholesale shifting towards nuclear toreplace fossil fuels, leads to global spreadof nuclear power and technology
Power stations become soft
targets for terrorism; enriched
uranium and depleted plutoniumget into the wrong hands.
Energysuperpowers
The Gulf States hold 60%+ of oil reservesand Russia/Qatar/ Iran 60%+ of gas; theworld has not shifted to renewables.
Energy superpowers begin toname their price and take care
of their friends; majorgeopolitical shifts
Arctic attack Canada, Russia, USA and EU begin toexploit the Arctic for oil and gas, butwithout clear delineation of territorialareas.
A war or words over who has theright to exploit what, quicklybecomes a new cold war possiblya hot one
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Future challenges
What are our energychallenges in 2010?
There are some thatare obvious:
Reduce dependency
on fossil fuels to
increase energy
security
Increase renewable
energy use as fossil
fuels become more
expensive / peak
Reduce greenhouse
gas emissions
Increase access to
energy in developing
nations
Mix it up
Wind, solar and others can be
used to diversify energysources.
This would increase security,but could also reducegreenhouse emissions.
Technology for allAid could be used to help
developing nations grow theirrenewable sectors
Intermediate technology iskey to this.
They need energy, butwithout greenhouse emissions.
Tax it downGreen taxes i.e. taxing fossilfuel use, could encourageefficiency
Greenhouse emissions would
fall as efficiency rises
The dirtiest fuels could betaxed the most.
Self generationHomes can generaterenewable energy using groundsource heat pumps, micro-windand solar PV / thermal
This would diversify theenergy mix, reduce emissionsand increase self-reliance.