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Key issues of industrial surveys in South Asia
Shyam Upadhyaya
International workshop on industrial statistics 8 – 10 July, Beijing
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Outline
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How manufacturing matters to South Asia?Relevance of industrial statistics
Overview of current situation of industrial statistics (evidences from UNIDO Databases)
Kew issues in terms of the quality dimensions of industrial statistics
unido.org/statisticsWhy manufacturing matters for South Asia?
3
• Manufacturing plays a bigger role in South Asia at its
early stage of industrialization
• Absorbs the surplus labour force coming from rising population
• Brings new technology, promotes innovation, thereby increases productivity in other sectors of economy
• Produces essential goods for domestic and external market
• Industrial statistics plays an indispensable role in informing the society about the possibilities created by manufacturing activities
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Size of manufacturing in South Asia
4
Share of MVA in GDP is rising in South Asia
India is among top 10 manufacturers of the world
Bangladesh alone produces more than the rest of LDCs
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World and regional MVA growth in 1990 – 2012
1990 = 100
MVA growth of SAARC region has been consistently higher than the country group averages , it belongs to.
unido.org/statisticsGlobal and regional MVA growth trends
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MVA growth was relatively less vulnerable in the years of the world economic recession thanks to growing domestic demand
unido.org/statisticsShare of China and SAARC region
7
unido.org/statisticsOverview of industrial surveys in South
Asia
Periodicity Latest year data available
Cut-off size ISIC Revision
Afghanistan Annual 2008 Registered establishments
Rev 3
Bangladesh 5 years 2006 10 persons engaged Rev 3Bhutan Not regular 2006 All registered units Rev 3Cambodia Not regular 2003 10 persons engaged Rev 3Maldives Not regular Not
available Not available Rev 3
Myanmar Not regular 2010 State-owned and 10 persons engaged
Rev 3
Nepal 5-years 2006 10 persons engaged Rev 3India Annual 2010 10 persons, if no
power, 20 persons engaged
Rev 4
Lao PDR Not regular 1999 10 persons engaged Rev 3Pakistan 5 years 2006 10 employees Rev 3Sri Lanka Annual 2010 25 persons engaged Rev 3
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Major issues of industrial surveys• Limited use of admin data; especially for maintaining business
register
• Extensive field operation which makes data collection time consuming, expensive and complex; limited use of sampling method mainly due to the frame problem
• Inadequate coverage of data items for compiling policy relevant statistical indicators
• Dialogue between the statistical office and users at large on survey operation and its results
unido.org/statisticsSurvey of small scale
establishments
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What is small? – anything that is not big...
• Inconsistency between the statistical and administrative definition of the small scale industry
• No reliable frame - large rate of mobility in business demography
Out of all registered units 30% in India and 42% in Nepal are not in operation or not identifiable
• Small scale establishments make significant contribution to employment and self-employment and reduce poverty.
• The task of industrial statistics is to provide complete measure of all industrial activities of the country
unido.org/statisticsShort-term indicators of industrial
statistics
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• STI are constructed to show the current growth trends of the volume of industrial production
• Early warning on turning points economy and its major sectors
• Some relevant issues for South Asia:– production indices by industrial sectors(some countries produce quarterly GDP by sector)
– seasonal adjustment of production indices
– delay in data reporting (quarterly data get quickly outdated)
- problem for international data users measurement units/reference year
unido.org/statisticsIdentified problems against quality
dimensions
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Quality dimension
Activities required
Relevance • Statistics are well-presented to general public, media and users at large
• Analytical indicators are compiled to suit the interest of policymakers.
• Dialogue with the data users in private sector
Completeness • Scope of the industrial surveys is extended to smaller activity units
• Survey results include estimates for non-response and non-coverage
Timeliness • Industrial surveys are conducted regularly to support time-series analysis
• Time-lag between survey period and data dissemination point is reduced
Comparability • Data are comparable over time and across-countries (international comparability) • Implementation of international recommendations and statistical standards
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• No demand from users
• Lack of realization for the evidence based policy making in the government and private sector
• Limited resources or survey capacity in NSOs
• Statistics is not in the government priority
• Data needs are met from administrative or other sources
Why some countries do not conduct the industrial survey regularly?
