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UNIDO Productivity Databases

Amadou BOLY, UNIDO

First Al-Khawarezmi conference Doha, Qatar

6-8 December 2010

UNIDO Industrial Statistics Database

• UNIDO collects, maintains and disseminates international industrial statistics (manufacturing)

• Data for 181 countries and territories from 1963 ... but with gaps

• Data on major industrial statistics, by ISIC rev 3 and rev 2:Number of units, employment, wages and salaries, output, value added, capital formation and production indices

• Dissemination media:International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics CD products (INDSTAT 2 and INDSTAT 4)Online access to country briefs

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Productivity Projects

• World Productivity Database (WPD) https://www.unido.org/data1/wpd/Index.cfm

• World Manufacturing Productivity

Database (in progress)• Productivity and Structural Change

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Why productivity?

• Why are some countries richer than others?

• Why are some firms more competitive than others?

• Why do you earn more than …?• Productivity welfare, prosperity• A few graphs to illustrate

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TFP and Poverty gap (1$)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

TFP relative to the US

Po

ver

ty g

ap

1$

Source: World Productivity Database and World Development Indicators 2006.

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TFP and Poverty headcount

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

TFP relative to the US

Po

ver

ty H

ead

cou

nt

1$

Source: World Productivity Database and World Development Indicators 2006.

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TFP and Life expectancy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

TFP relative to the US

Lif

e E

xp

ecta

ncy

Source: World Productivity Database and World Development Indicators 2006.

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TFP and Mortality rate under 5

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

TFP relative to the US

Mo

rta

lity

ra

te <

5

Source: World Productivity Database and World Development Indicators 2006.

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Output per worker

Source: Isaksson, 2010.

1 Luxembourg 181.05 11 Puerto Rico 87.48 171 Togo 2.512 Qatar 108.49 30 Trinidad &Tobago 70.31 172 Malawi 2.453 Macao 107.13 42 Bahamas 50.97 173 Madagascar 2.224 UAE 101.21 46 Antigua 44.61 174 Somalia 2.155 United States 100.00 51 Netherlands Antilles 41.59 175 Afghanistan 2.156 Norway 94.07 53 Barbados 40.48 176 Cambodia 2.037 Ireland 93.41 60 Dominica 33.55 177 Burundi 1.908 Belgium 93.28 77 St.Vincent & Gren. 25.73 178 Guinea-Bissau 1.829 Austria 89.06 79 Dominican Rep. 24.53 179 Congo, Dem. Rep. 1.53

10 Singapore 88.22 83 St. Lucia 22.60 180 Eritrea 1.5291 Grenada 19.66 181 Liberia 1.3592 Cuba 19.40

114 Jamaica 13.17

143 Haiti 5.62

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Theory and Concepts #1• Solow’s model• Y=A f(K,L) Hicks-neutral• A = TFP = technology … at least in

theory• TFP growth = technical progress

(theory)• A = Y / KαLβ , often α+β=1

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Theory and Concepts #2

• Objective is to increase output/worker• Factor accumulation vs Technical

progress– Factor accumulation comes to a halt– Technical progress the only source of

growth

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Capital accumulation vs. Technical progress

OUTPUT/LABOR (y)

CAPITAL/LABOR (k)

y00

kk

y70

00

ab

c y = A f(k)00

y = A f(k)70

d

70

y'00

P

e

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Productivity analysis• Define policy areas

– Factor accumulation versus technical change

– Which sectors contribute?– Which sectors are a drag?

• Resources are scarce, trade offs

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Determinants: TFP Level

• TFPt = F(past)

• Acemoglu, Rodrik on Institutions• International integration• Glaeser et al on Human capital• Health• Culture and social institutions?

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Determinants: TFP growth

• R&D and the like• Schooling and Health• Infrastructure• …• And much more growth

econometrics

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Measurement issues

• Measurement of Y, K, L (and other inputs)

• Functional form and specification• Measurement of α and β, returns to

scale?• Quality of inputs and utilization rates• Disembodied/embodied technical

change

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Conclusions• Productivity is key to our welfare• Important to gauge productivity… but

difficult• Missing and shaky data• Are we sure about the determinants? • How can poor countries catch up?• UN, NSO and academe need to cooperate