UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin. September 30 – October 1, 2004, Dublin, Ireland Jiří Spitz ENVIROS, s. r. o. Czech Republic UNFCCC Workshop,

UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin

September 30 – October 1, 2004, Dublin, Ireland

Jiří SpitzENVIROS, s. r. o.Czech Republic


GHG Emission Projections in the Czech Republic – Methodological Approach

Workshop on the Preparation of the Fourth National Communication


Presentation structure

• importance of GHG emission projections

• projections with measures, with additional measures and without measures

• why to have even more scenarios

• methodology

– tools

– accounting of mitigation measures

– scenario without measures

• results comparison

• sensitivity analysis


Importance of GHG emissions projections

Inventory of GHG Emissions

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Gg

CO

2ekv inventory

Kyoto target


Importance of GHG emissions projections – contd.

• From the foregoing graph might seem GHG emissions are not an issue for the Czech Republic. But:

– EU is likely to be more progressive in climate protection than Kyoto

– ~14 kg CO2ekv per capita in the CR vs. ~11 kg average in the EU

– the emission decrease was substantially influenced by drop of economy

– trading with emission permits (national allocation plan)

– feeling of general responsibility for the climate

• GHG emission projections are important and not only in NC4 context.


Scenario with measures (2003 projections)

• measures realised between1995 – 2000 (accounted in projections)

– clean air legislation

– state programmes

• Czech Energy Agency (support of energy efficiency & RES)

• State Environmental Fund (air protection)

• GEF efficient lighting

• transport

• support of forestation

• alternative motor fuels


Scenario with measures (2003 projections) – contd.

• measures realised after 2000 (with exception of wastes not yet accounted in projections)

– new Clean Air Act

– act on IPPC

• effective from 2003 for new installations

• effective from 2012 for existing ones

– act on wastes

– act on packaging


Scenario with additional measures (2003 projections)

• additional measures

– National Energy Efficiency & RES Programme

• the programme sets indicative targets in emission reduction

– environmental tax on energy

• politically controversial issue

– increased support of RES


Scenario without measures (2003 projections)

• scenario as if none of the listed measures would have been realised


Why to have even more scenarios?

Comparison of different GHG emision projections

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

% o

f 19

90

inventory

Kyoto target

national target (2001)

1994 (1NC)

1996 (2NC)

1997

2000

2001 (3NC)

2003


Why to have even more scenarios? – contd.

• sensitivity analysis to the most unreliable inputs

– prediction of the GDP is more difficult due to two „economical shocks“

• transition from planned to market economy

• accession to the EU

– (rather) political issues

• future of the nuclear energy

• utilisation of domestic lignite


Proposed scenarios

• three GDP scenarios– reference – average annual growth 3.6 %

– low – average annual growth 2.9 %

– high – average annual growth 4.3 %

• two nuclear + lignite scenarios– no new nuclear power plants + extension of lignite mines

– new nuclear plants possible after 2015 + no further extension of lignite mines


Methodology - tools

• energy sector

– energy demand

• MEDEE-like spreadsheets

• CGE model

– technology mix

• EFOM/ENV model

– model type

• linear optimising

• technology oriented

• bottom-up

– all combustion processes in all sectors & ferrous metallurgy

– CO2, NOX, SO2, CO, particulates, fugitive CH4 from coal & natural gas


Methodology – tools – contd.

• agriculture & forestry – specialised models

• CO2 from lime desulphurisation – calculated „manually“

• CO2 in industry – spreadsheet model (important only cement + glass)

• waste management – spreadsheet model

• N2O – spreadsheet model on the sector level

• HFCs, PFCs, SF6 – spreadsheet model on the national level


Methodology – accounting of measures

• measures incorporated into the energy demand forecast

– technological standards

• thermal insulation of buildings

• minimal efficiencies of energy technologies

• measures built-in in the technology model

– technology development

– fuel switching

– demand-side saving measures (above requirements of standards)

– taxes and subsidies on energy

– national emission ceilings


Methodology – accounting of measures – contd.

• measures accounted outside models

– quantified

• realised and planned JI projects

• investments realised within state energy efficiency & RES programmes

– estimated

• non-technology part of state energy efficiency & RES programmes

– omitted due to lack of data

• some political and declarative measures, where the benefit can be hardly quantified

• what should be added for NC4

– trading with emission permits


Methodology – scenario without measures

• the most complicated scenario

• small simplification – all mitigation programmes began after 1992

• calculation started form scenario with measures

– increase of energy demand - removing insulation and efficiency standards

– removing taxes and subsidies on energy applied after 1995

– addition of saved emissions from state energy efficiency & RES programmes

– addition of emissions from JI projects

– removing of impact of clean air legislation (fuel switch lignite natural gas) – a spreadsheet task


Result comparison

GHG emission - Reference Scenario

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

19

90

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

[ G

g ]

inventory

with measures

without measures

with additional measures


Result comparison – contd.

• main drivers

– scenario with measures

• clean air legislation (mainly SO2 problem) – 3716 Gg CO2ekv in 2000

– large installations equipped with cleaning technologies

– small installations switched from coal to natural gas

– support to gasification in households

• state energy efficiency & RES programmes – 3442 Gg CO2ekv in 2000

– scenario with additional measures

• introduction of very strong ecological tax on energy + supported feed-in tariffs for electricity from RES – 16518 Gg CO2ekv in 2020

• new National Energy Efficiency & RES Programme – 6614 Gg CO2ekv in 2020


Sensitivity analysis

Comparison of Scenarios with Measures

110 000

120 000

130 000

140 000

150 000

160 000

170 000

180 000

190 000

19

90

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

[ G

g ]

inventory

high

reference

low

high - nuclear

reference - nuclear

low - nuclear


Sensitivity analysis – contd.

• influence of GDP growth

– change of 0.7 % in average GDP growth 5000 Gg CO2ekv in 2010

• influence of new nuclear power plants

– new NPP could be finished around the year 2020

• saving of another 5000 Gg CO2ekv in 2020


Conclusion

• it is possible and useful to develop all three scenarios

• additional scenarios were calculated as a kind of sensitivity analysis

• there remain issues to be solved

– trading with emission permits

– assessment of impact of political, organisational, voluntary and declarative measures


Thank for your attention!

Contacts:ENVIROS, s. r. o.

Prague, Czech Republic

Phone: +420 284 007 499

Fax: +420 284 861 245

E-mail: [email protected]

www.enviros.cz

Documents

UNFCCC Workshop, 9/30 - 10/1 2004, Dublin. September 30 – October 1, 2004, Dublin, Ireland Jiří Spitz ENVIROS, s. r. o. Czech Republic UNFCCC Workshop,