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UN
ESCO
Insti
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for S
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Education related MDG indicators: methodology and issues
Ioulia SementchoukUNESCO Institute for Statistics
November 21, 2012
UN
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Insti
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for S
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OutlineOutline
Millennium Development Goals
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower
women
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Education is vital to meet all Education is vital to meet all of the development goalsof the development goals
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Goal 2Goal 2
Achieve universal primary education
Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere,
boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of
primary schooling
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Monitoring indicators: Monitoring indicators: Target 2.A Target 2.A
Youth literacyrate
Progress OutcomeParticipation
Net enrolment rate Survival rate to the last grade
Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling
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ParticipationParticipation
Indicator 2.1: Net enrolment rate in primary education
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Net enrolment rate (NER)Net enrolment rate (NER) Definition: Percentage of children of the official
primary school age group who are enrolled in primary education.
Calculation: Divide the number of pupils of the official primary age group who are enrolled in primary education by the population for the same age group and multiply the result by 100.
UN
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Net enrolment rate (NER)Net enrolment rate (NER)
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Age PopulationEnrolment in primary
education
5 37,472 19
6 37,484 5,088
7 36,206 32,111
8 36,373 33,983
9 37,196 33,084
10 38,122 30,692
11 39,200 3,027
12 40,777 296
13 43,147 68
14 46,737 47
15 49,511 21
Total 138,436
Republic of Moldova (2011)Republic of Moldova (2011)
897,147107 SAP
Entry age: 7 year old Duration: 4 years
Official age group: 7-10
Age PopulationEnrolment in primary
education
5 37,472 19
6 37,484 5,088
7 36,206 32,111
8 36,373 33,983
9 37,196 33,084
10 38,122 30,692
11 39,200 3,027
12 40,777 296
13 43,147 68
14 46,737 47
15 49,511 21
Total 138,436
Age PopulationEnrolment in primary
education
5 37,472 19
6 37,484 5,088
7 36,206 32,111
8 36,373 33,983
9 37,196 33,084
10 38,122 30,692
11 39,200 3,027
12 40,777 296
13 43,147 68
14 46,737 47
15 49,511 21
Total 138,436
?NER %8.87100*897,147
870,129NER
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Recent updateRecent update Concept of out-of-school children is redefined:
Children of primary school age are counted as being in school when they are either in primary or secondary education.
Adjusted NER (NERA) is more appropriate to monitor MDGs NERA: including primary school age in secondary education
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Adjusted net enrolment rate (NERA)Adjusted net enrolment rate (NERA) Definition: Percentage of children of the official primary
school age group who are enrolled in primary or secondary education.
Calculation: Divide the total number of pupils in the official primary school age range who are enrolled in primary or secondary education in a given school year by the population of the same age group and multiply the result by 100.
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Adjusted net enrolment rate (NERA)Adjusted net enrolment rate (NERA)
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100P
Et
ap
t
apst
pNERA *,
,
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?NERA
Age PopulationEnrolment in primary education
7 36,206 32,111
8 36,373 33,983
9 37,196 33,084
10 38,122 30,692
Total 147,897 129,870
Republic of Moldova (2011)Republic of Moldova (2011)
%6.90100*147,897
133,962NERA
Age PopulationEnrolment in primary education
Enrolment in secondary education
Total enrolment
7 36,206 32,111 n 32,111
8 36,373 33,983 n 33,983
9 37,196 33,084 38 33,122
10 38,122 30,692 4,054 34,746
Total 147,897 129,870 4,092 133,962
Official age group: 7-10
%8.87NER
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NER vs NERANER vs NERA
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Adjusted net enrolment rateAdjusted net enrolment rate Interpretation: Increasing NERA might reflect improving participation
of children in the official primary school age, the decrease of the target population or both. A value of 100% might indicate that the country has accomplished the UPE goal. However, this condition is not sufficient for UPE due to, for example, a high repetition rate, which might lead pupils to dropout after primary school age without completing primary education.
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Adjusted net enrolment rateAdjusted net enrolment rate Limitations: The theoretical maximum of NERA is 100 per cent.
However, the NERA may exceed this maximum due to inconsistencies between population and enrolment data derived from different data sources. School enrolments may be over or under-reported for various reasons.
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ProgressProgress
Indicator 2.2: Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach the last grade of primary
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Survival rate to the last grade of primary Survival rate to the last grade of primary educationeducation Definition: Percentage of a cohort of pupils enrolled in the first
grade who are expected to reach the last grade of primary education, regardless the repetition.
Rationale: This indicator measures an education system’s success in retaining students from one grade to the next as well as its internal efficiency. Various factors account for poor performance on this indicator, including low quality of schooling, discouragement over poor achievement and the direct and indirect costs of schooling. Students’ progress to higher grades may also be limited by the availability of teachers, classrooms and educational materials.
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Survival rate to the last grade of primary Survival rate to the last grade of primary educationeducationCalculation: The survival rate is calculated on the basis of the reconstructed cohort method, which uses data on enrolment and repeaters for two consecutive years.
This method makes three assumptions: drop-outs never return to school; promotion, repetition and drop-out rates remain constant over
the entire period in which the cohort is enrolled in school; the same rates apply to all pupils enrolled in a given grade,
regardless of whether they previously repeated a grade.
UN
ESCO
Insti
tute
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tatis
tics Primary education Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5
2010 Enrolment 42,673 39,500 46,966 47,569 48,073
2011 Enrolment 39,932 41,989 39,272 46,801 47,666
2011 Repeaters 572 298 245 245 521
Primary education Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5
2010 Enrolment 42,673 39,500 46,966 47,569 48,073
2011 Enrolment 39,932 41,989 39,272 46,801 47,666
2011 Repeaters 572 298 245 245 521
Albania (2010)Albania (2010)
20
t4G
t4Gt
4Gt
5G pRRePR
SR100
*SR
100*t
4G
1t
5G
1t
5Gt
4G EREPR
100*E
RpRRe
t
4G
1t
4Gt
4G
%1.99100*569,47
521666,47t4GPR
%5.0100*569,47
245pRRet
4G
%9.975.0100
1.99*2.98SR
t
5G
Primary education Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5
2010 Enrolment 42,673 39,500 46,966 47,569 48,073
2011 Enrolment 39,932 41,989 39,272 46,801 47,666
2011 Repeaters 572 298 245 245 521
Primary education Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5
2010 Enrolment 42,673 39,500 46,966 47,569 48,073
2011 Enrolment 39,932 41,989 39,272 46,801 47,666
2011 Repeaters 572 298 245 245 521
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Survival rate to the last grade of primary Survival rate to the last grade of primary education, 1999 and 2010education, 1999 and 2010
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Survival rate to the last grade of primary Survival rate to the last grade of primary educationeducation Interpretation: Indicator values range from 0% (none of the pupils
starting grade 1 reach the last grade) to 100% (all of the pupils reach the last grade). Survival Rates approaching 100 per cent indicate a high level of retention and a low incidence of dropout. It is important to note that it does not imply that all children of school age complete primary education.
The Survival Rate is a percentage of a cohort of pupils (that is, children who have already entered school) and not a percentage of children of school age.
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Survival rate to the last grade of primary Survival rate to the last grade of primary educationeducation Limitations: Since the calculation of the proportion of pupils
starting grade 1 who reach last grade of primary is based on pupil-flow rates, the reliability of the survival rate depends on the consistency of data coverage on enrolment and repeaters over time and across grades.
Given that this indicator is usually estimated using cohort analysis models that are based on a number of assumptions, care should be taken in using the results in comparisons.
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Gross intake ratio to the last grade – Gross intake ratio to the last grade – Proxy measure of primary completionProxy measure of primary completion Definition: Total number of new entrants in the last grade of
primary education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the population at the theoretical entrance age to the last grade of primary.
Calculation: Divide the number of new entrants in last grade of primary, regardless of age, by the population of theoretical entrance age to the last grade of primary, and multiply the result by 100.
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Gross intake ratio to the last grade of Gross intake ratio to the last grade of primary educationprimary education
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Gross intake ratio to the last grade of Gross intake ratio to the last grade of primary educationprimary education Limitations: The calculation includes all new entrants to the
last grade (regardless of age). Therefore, the ratio can exceed 100%, due to over-aged and under-aged children who enter primary school late/early and/or repeat grades in previous years. However, in the long run the Gross intake ratio to the last grade should approach 100%.
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Gross intake rate to the last grade of primary Gross intake rate to the last grade of primary education, 1999 and 2011education, 1999 and 2011
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OutcomeOutcome
Indicator 2.3: Literacy rate of 15- to 24-year-old women
and men
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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years) Definition: Percentage of people aged 15 to 24 years who
can both read and write with understanding a short, simple statement on their everyday life.
Calculation: Divide the number of people aged 15 to 24 years who are literate by the total population in the same age group and multiply the result by 100.
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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)
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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years) Interpretation: The indicator ranges from 0% (all youth are illiterate)
to 100% (all youth are literate). Literacy rates below 100 per cent indicate the need to increase school participation and education quality.
Rationale: The youth literacy rate reflects the outcomes of the primary education system over the previous 10 years, and is often seen as a proxy measure of social progress and economic achievement. The literacy rate is the complement of the illiteracy rate. It is not a measure of the adequacy of the literacy levels needed for individuals to function and participate in a society (functional literacy).
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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)
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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)
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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years) Limitations: Some countries apply definitions and criteria for
literacy which are different from the international standard defined above, or equate persons with no schooling to illiterates, or change definitions between censuses.
Practices for identifying literates and illiterates during actual census enumeration may also vary. Errors in literacy self-declaration can affect the reliability of the statistics.
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Gender parity index (GPI)Gender parity index (GPI) Definition: Ratio of female to male values of a given
indicator. Purpose: The GPI measures progress towards gender parity
in education participation and/or learning opportunities available for girls in relation to those available to boys.
Calculation: Divide the female value of an indicator by the male value of the same indicator.
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Gender parity index (GPI)Gender parity index (GPI)
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Male
FemaleGER GER
GERGPI
Where:
GPIGER Gender parity index for Gross enrolment ratio
GERFemale Gross enrolment ratio for female
GERMale Gross enrolment ratio for male
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Gross enrolment ratio (GER)Gross enrolment ratio (GER) Definition: Total enrolment in a specific level of education,
regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the official school-age population corresponding to the same level of education.
Calculation: Divide the number of pupils enrolled in a given level of education regardless of age by the population of the age group which officially corresponds to the given level of education, and multiply the result by 100.
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Gross enrolment ratio (GER)Gross enrolment ratio (GER)
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?Female GER
%96.90
100*340,91
087,83
Female
Female
GER
GER
?GER GPI
?Male
GER%97.89
100*536,97
755,87
Male
Male
GER
GER
School-age population
Enrolment in primary
educationAge Female Male Female Male
6 16,690 17,833 14,477 15,2137 17,398 18,586 16,484 17,3518 18,198 19,435 16,273 17,3579 19,042 20,331 17,352 18,151
10 20,012 21,351 16,716 17,50311 1,639 1,96912 72 10413 28 3814 14 2215 32 47
Total 91,340 97,536 83,087 87,755
Bosnia and Herzegovina (2011)Bosnia and Herzegovina (2011)
01.1%97.89
%96.90GER GPI
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Measuring gender parity Measuring gender parity GER for Primary education, 2011GER for Primary education, 2011
Tajikistan Albania Georgia
Girls GER 98.4 85.4 108.1
Boys GER 102.4 86.4 105.0
GPI 0.96 0.99 1.03
1.00
Perfect parity
Higher rate among boys
Higher rate among girls
Gender parity index – an index of 1.00 is perfect parity, and 0.97 – 1.03 is considered a zone of gender parity
↓↓ ↓
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Gender parity index by level of education, 1999 Gender parity index by level of education, 1999 and 2011and 2011
The horizontal green bar represents the zone of gender parity
Primary education Secondary education Tertiary educationPrimary education Secondary education Tertiary education
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Gender parity index (GPI)Gender parity index (GPI) Limitations: The index does not show whether improvement
or regression is due to the performance of one of the gender groups (boys or girls). Interpretation of the GPI requires trend analysis of the underlying GER values.
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Additional indicators for analysis Are there enough places for all children?
Gross enrolment ratio Do children start school at the right age?
Gross intake rateNet intake rateAdjusted net intake rate
Do all children go to school?Numbers of children out-of-school
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Additional indicators for analysis How do children progress through the system?
Promotion rateRepetition rate
Do children complete primary education?Primary completion rate
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Azerbaijan (2011) Most children are in school but NERA is low - why?
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Entry age: 6 year old Duration: 4 years
Official age group: 6-9
Age Population
Enrolment in primary
education
Enrolment in secondary education
5 120,999 8,986 n
6 121,286 96,895 n
7 132,395 113,448 n
8 127,083 115,544 n
9 124,368 111,621 3,311
10 129,599 31,393 77,913
Total 505,132 437,508 3,311
100*505,132
440,819NERA
%3.87NERA
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Azerbaijan (2011)
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NERA vs GER in primary education
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Azerbaijan (2011) Percentage of 6- and 7-year-olds in primary grade 1
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Azerbaijan (2011) Reason for low NERA: late entry into primary school
Entry age: 6 year old Age Population
Enrolment in Grade 1 of primary education
5 120,999 68
6 121,286 92,578
7 132,395 25,678
8 127,083 1,627
9 124,368 13
10 129,599 16
11 134,296 15
12 138,566 3
Total 119,998
100*121,286
92,578NIR
%3.76NIR
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Contact informationIoulia SementchoukEducation Indicators and Data AnalysisUNESCO Institute for [email protected]
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