Unemployment

AS economics presentation on the measurement and causes of unemployment

Measuring Unemployment

• A Working Definition of Unemployment

– People able, available and willing to find work and actively seeking work – but not employed

• The Claimant Count Measure

– The number of people claiming the Jobseekers’ Allowance

• The Labour Force Survey

– Must have actively sought work in the previous four weeks and be available to start work immediately

• Labour Market Slack

– Includes all those who want to work, those on government training schemes, and part-timers who could not get a full-time job

Recent UK unemployment statistics

Labour Force Survey

Claimant Count

Long Term

Long Term

Unemployment (seasonally adjusted)

Unemployment (seasonally adjusted)

Youth

Level Annual Change

Rate Level Annual Change

Rate

000s 000s % 000s 000s % 000s 000s

1997 2,036 -302 7.2 1,585 -503 5.4 358.6 153.8

1998 1,772 -264 6.2 1,348 -237 4.6 233.1 106.8

1999 1,754 -18 6.1 1,248 -100 4.2 204.3 62.1

2000 1,633 -121 5.7 1,088 -160 3.6 163.9 46.3

2001 1,428 -205 4.9 970 -118 3.2 124.5 37.8

2002 1,524 96 5.2 947 -23 3.1 89.8 39.2

Long term unemployment trends

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 041

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Source: DATASTREAM

Labour force survey

Claimant count

Claimant Count and Labour Force Survey

DIFFERENT MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE UK

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Perc

enta

ge o

f th

e L

abourf

orc

e

Claimant Count 5.5 7.6 9.2 9.7 8.8 7.6 7 5.4 4.6 4.2 3.6 3.2 3.1

Labour Force Survey 6.9 8.4 9.8 10.5 9.8 8.8 8.3 7.2 6.2 6.1 5.7 4.9 5.2

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

International Unemployment Statistics

Per cent Euro Zone UK USA Japan Germany France

1996 10.8 8.3 5.4 3.3 8.7 11.9

1997 10.8 7.2 4.9 3.4 9.7 11.8

1998 10.2 6.2 4.5 4.1 9.1 11.4

1999 9.4 6.1 4.2 4.7 8.4 10.7

2000 8.4 5.7 4.0 4.7 7.7 9.2

2001 8.0 4.9 4.8 5.1 7.9 8.5

2002 8.4 5.0 5.8 5.4 8.6 8.8

Types of Unemployment

• Seasonal – Regular seasonal changes in employment / labour demand– Affects certain industries more than others

• Catering and leisure• Construction• Retailing• Tourism • Agriculture

• Frictional – An irreducible minimum unemployment in a dynamic economy– Includes people experiencing short spells of unemployment– Includes new and returning entrants into the labour market– Imperfect information about available job opportunities can lengthen the period of job

search– Frictional unemployment also affected by incentives / disincentives to search and accept

paid work

Causes of Unemployment (continued)

• Structural– Arises from the mismatch of skills and job opportunities as the pattern

of labour demand in the economy changes over time– Occupational immobility of labour is a major cause of structural

unemployment – labour market failure– Often involves long-term unemployment– Prevalent in regions where industries go into long-term decline

• Cyclical (Keynesian)– There is a clear cyclical relationship between demand, output,

employment and unemployment– Caused by a fall in aggregate demand relative to potential GDP leading

to a loss of real national output and employment• Real Wage Unemployment

– Created when real wages are maintained above their market clearing level leading to an excess supply of labour at the prevailing wage rate

Illustrating cyclical unemployment using AD-AS analysis

General Price Level

Real National Income

AD1SRAS

P1

Y1

LRAS

Yfc

AD2

Y2

P2

Real Wage Level

LD2

W1

E2 YFC2E1

Demand for Labour

W2

Employment of Labour

Supply of Labour

Unemployment and Economic Growth in the UK

Unemployment and Economic Growth in the UK

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Per

Cent

Real GDP Claimant Count

Real GDP 4.5 5.2 2.2 0.8 -1.4 0.2 2.5 4.7 2.9 2.6 3.4 2.9 2.4 3.1 2.1 1.9

Claimant Count 9.4 7.6 5.9 5.5 7.6 9.2 9.7 8.8 7.6 7 5.4 4.6 4.2 3.6 3.2 3.1

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Economic and Social Costs of Unemployment

• Private Costs for the Involuntary Unemployed

– Loss of income – but many households have major spending commitments (mortgage, credit agreements etc.)

– Fall in real living standards

– Increased Health risks (particularly for long term unemployed)

• Stress

• Reduction in quality of diet

• Increased risk of marital break-up

• Social exclusion because of loss of work and income

– Loss of marketable skills (human capital) and motivation

• The longer the duration of unemployment, the lower the chances of finding fresh employment - the unemployed become less attractive to potential employers (“outsiders in the labour market”)

Consequences of Unemployment (2)

• Economic Consequences for Businesses

– Negative consequences

• Fall in demand for goods and services

• Fall in demand for businesses further down the supply chain

• Consider the negative multiplier effects from the closure of a major employer in a town or city

– Some positive consequences

• Bigger pool of surplus labour is available – but still a problem if there is plenty of structural unemployment

• Less pressure to pay higher wages

• Less risk of industrial / strike action – fear of job losses – leading to reduced trade union power

Consequences of Unemployment (3)

• Consequences for the Government (Fiscal Policy)

– Increased spending on unemployment benefits and other income –related state welfare payments

– Fall in revenue from income tax and taxes on consumer spending

– Fall in profits – reduction in revenue from corporation tax

– May lead to rise in government borrowing (i.e. a budget deficit)

• Consequences for the Economy as a whole

– Lost output (real GDP) from people being out of work – the economy will be operating well within its production frontier

– Unemployment seen as an inefficient way of allocating resources – labour market failure?

– Some of the long-term unemployed may leave the labour force permanently – fall in potential GDP

– Increase in the inequality – rise in relative poverty

Policies to Reduce Unemployment

• Measures to boost labour demand (reduce cyclical unemployment)

– Lower interest rates (monetary stimulus)

– Lower direct taxes (fiscal stimulus)

– Government spending on major projects (e.g. improving the transport infrastructure)

– Employment subsidies (including the New Deal programme)

– Incentives to encourage flows of foreign investment in the UK

• Measures to improve labour supply (reduce frictional and structural unemployment)

– Increased spending on education & training including an emphasis on “lifetime-learning”)

– Improved flows of information on job vacancies

– Changes to income tax and benefits to improve incentives to find work

Consequences of falling unemployment

• The circular flow and the multiplier:– Incomes flowing into households will grow– Falling unemployment adds to demand and creates a positive

multiplier effect on incomes, demand and output.• The balance of payments:

– When incomes and spending are growing, there is an increase in the demand for imports. Unless this is matched by a rise in export sales, the trade balance in goods and services will worsen

• Government finances:– With more people in work paying income tax, national insurance and

value added tax, the government can expect a large rise in tax revenues and a reduction in social security benefits

• Inflationary effects– Falling unemployment can also create a rise in inflationary pressure –

particularly when the economy moves close to operating at full capacity