November 8, 2012

Understanding Today’s Clean Air Act Challenges

2

The New NAAQS

New Short-term NAAQS

- Sulfur Dioxide (2010) 1 Hour Average (3,24 and Annual)

- Nitrogen Dioxide (2010) 1 Hour Average (Annual only)

Other New NAAQS

Ozone (2008) Reduced 8 Hour Average

Lead (2008) Reduced Quarterly Average (1/10)

PM2.5 (2006) Reduced 24 Hour Average (1/2)

Carbon Monoxide No change

These combined make existing and new sources subject to tremendous pressure on emissions.

3

NO2 NAAQS

New NAAQS is 188 µg/m3(or 100ppb) but for a 1 hour average. Depending upon the meteorology of the site this results in a 6.6 times lower threshold to meet. It therefore will be substantially harder to meet. Annual standard remains.

Compliance is determined by the 98% of the days over 3 years, i. e. each day with a concentration over 188 µg/m3 counts as an exceedance day. The eighth exceedance day is a violation for that year. The 24th exceedance day in 3 years is non-attainment.

4

NO2 NAAQS Schedule

Primary emphasis of 1 Hour NAAQS is roadways (50-500 meters) which are currently unmonitored

Requires State monitoring plans by July 1, 2011

Requires deployment of new monitors by July 1, 2013

Includes requirement for met data.

Non attainment designations by January 2012 based on 2008-2010 data and then another round when the roadway monitoring is in.

State Implementation Plans due 18 months after designation (July 2013) and attainment required in 5 years (January 2017)

5

NO2 NAAQS the Real Trouble

States have virtually no control over automotive emissions, thus point sources near roadways could be in for control. No implementation guidance yet issued.

The real danger, not even discussed in the Final rule or the Regulatory Impact Analysis is the application of the 1 Hour NAAQS to point sources.

This will have a tremendous effect on all types of industrial sources, new and existing. The effect on distributed generation and emergency generators in urban areas could be huge and the effect on the oil and gas industry could be monumental.

6

NO2 NAAQS hints for compliance

Have on hand testing that demonstrates the NO2/NOx ratio of your stack emissions. NAAQS is for NO2 only.

Perform “preliminary modeling” to determine potential for compliance with the NAAQS, whether isolated source or in industrial area.

Based on results of modeling, determine whether ambient monitoring is necessary to demonstrate actual background concentrations or that the model is over predicting actual concentrations.

EPA’s own modeling showed that 90% of sources will not meet NAAQS

7

SO2 NAAQS

New primary NAAQS of 196 µg/m3 (75 ppb) as a 1 Hour average results in a 7.7 times more restrictive standard. New standard is 99% over three years.

This NAAQS is the 99% of the days with at least 1 hour above the level of the NAAQS, i.e. 4th highest value over three years.

8

SO2 NAAQS Schedule

Focus of attainment demonstrations was to be on modeling, which was said to be a continuation of past policy use.

Any new monitors by December 2012, with 3 years of data by 2015.

State attainment decisions by June 2011, EPA attainment decisions by June 2012. This is delayed!!

Attainment by June 2017.

2011 2017

9

SO2 NAAQS hints for compliance

Perform “preliminary modeling” to determine potential for compliance with the NAAQS, whether isolated source or in industrial area.

Based on results of modeling, determine whether ambient monitoring is necessary to demonstrate actual background concentrations or that the model is over predicting actual concentrations.

EPA’s own modeling showed that 90% of sources will not meet NAAQS

10

PM2.5 NAAQS

Old NAAQS was 65 µg/m3 on a 24 hour basis (98%) and 15 µg/m3 on an annual average basis.

New NAAQS is 35 µg/m3 on a 24 hour basis. The annual was retained at 15 µg/m3 but the EPA has proposed to lower to 11-13 µg/m3.

Modeling assumes that the SOx and NOx emissions are converted to particles through combining with ammonia in the atmosphere thereby becoming sulfates and nitrates.

11

PM2.5 NAAQS (cont)

EPA recently promulgated PSD increments for PM2.5

– Class II areas

Annual average 4 ug/m3 (1/4th)

24 Hour average 9 ug/m3 (1/4th)

– Class I areas (National Parks , etc)

Annual average 1 ug.m3

24 Hour average 2 ug/m3

– Significance limits (Class II and Class I)

Annual Average 0.3 and 0.06 ug/m3

24 Hour Average 1.2 and 0.07 ug/m3

12

PM2.5 NAAQS hints for compliance

Have stack teats to understand exact nature of particulate emissions (filterable, condensable, etc)

Perform “preliminary modeling” to determine potential for compliance with the NAAQS, whether isolated source or in industrial area.

Based on results of modeling, determine whether ambient monitoring is necessary to demonstrate actual background concentrations or that the model is over predicting actual concentrations.

13

Future (election delayed) NAAQS Changes

On June 14, 2012 EPA proposed to lower the annual average PM2.5 NAAQS again to 11-13 µg/m3

Proposed to set a Secondary NAAQS to improve visibility in urban areas

Gave Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to revise Ozone NAAQS to 50-60 ppb

Lead NAAQS proposal by February 2014

NO2 NAAQS proposal by August 2015

SO2 NAAQS proposal by February 2016

CO NAAQS proposal by July 2016.

14

The CSAPR/CAIR Delemma

EPA wants to impose a regional approach to ozone and PM2.5 compliance in the eastern US.

Court has stymied approaches of two administrations.

Trading under State plans can still go forward but foundation for those plans is subject to change.

No resolution is expected in the near future.

ozone

15

BART

There are many legal challenges to EPA BART determinations (SCR for all!).

EPA’s reliance on CSPAR for BART in the east is now moot and may force modeling analysis for eastern sources.

EPA’s reliance on insignificant changes in Deciviews as determined by models was also struck down by the court and a basis for challenges.

Understand your BART modeling analysis.

16

MATS

EPA (due to political pressure) is reconsidering new source limits.

EPA is not reconsidering existing source limits.

Compliance by April 2015

States are handing out 1 year extensions.

Utilities must act now to build case for additional “reliability extensions” which EPA expects to be rare.

No FERC policy yet.

17

RICE MACT

Insure that diesel engines meet the MACT requirement of less than 23 ppm CO.

Compliance deadline May 2013. Are you ready?

One year extensions.

Oxidation catalyst manufacturers will run out of capacity soon and many installation require more engineering than the manufacturers provide.

18

NSPS for Electric Utilities

EPA proposed 1000 tons CO2e/MW which means combined cycle with HRSG’s or sequestration.

Expect finalization after election.

Current applicants, of course, must comply with the proposal.

19

Summary

Know your emissions of SO2, NO2, PM2.5, and HAPs

Do preliminary modeling, so that you know the situation for compliance.

Decide whether ambient monitoring will help determine the accuracy of compliance.

Follow the implementation schedules and regulations in your State. The NAAQS will not change but the implementation may change.

Gale F. Hoffnagle, CCM, QEP P: xxx.xxx.xxxx | E: GHoffnagle@trcsolutions.com www.trcsolutions.com