Understanding The Telangana IssueWhich is the new state being born: Telangana or Seemandhra?

The case of the upcoming 29th state, Telangana, is very different from Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh or Uttarakhand. Its birth would eclipse the parent state itself, reducing it to nothing but a small block (Rayalaseema) and a coastal strip (Coastal Andhra) on the map of the country. In a way, it's Seemandhra that will be born. Andhra Pradesh would just acquire the name Telangana, as was the case before 1956.

Why was Telangana merged with Andhra Pradesh in 1956?

The States Reorganisation Commission, appointed in December 1953 to recommend the reorganisation of state boundaries, was not in favour of an immediate merger of Telangana with Andhra state, despite their common language. With the intervention of the then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Telangana and Andhra states were merged on November 1, 1956. Nehru termed the merger a "matrimonial alliance having provisions for divorce".

The State Reorganisation Report of 1955, which brought the merger into effect, said that the existing Andhra State had faced financial problems of some magnitude ever since it was created. Besides, in comparison with Telangana, the existing Andhra State had a lower per capita revenue. Telangana, on the other hand, was much less likely to face financial embarrassment, the report noted. The report also strongly notes the dissent of the people of the Telangana region and their unwillingness to form the larger Andhra Pradesh.

Why are odds still stacked against Seemandhra?

Seemandhra (Coastal Andhra and Rayalseema) is a poor cousin of Telangana, which is rich in industry and, more primarily from a southern perspective, water. Of the three regions of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana has the largest area (114,800 square kilometres). The Deccan Plateau has two major rivers - the Godavari and Krishna. Of this, Telangana alone has some 69 per cent of the Krishna river and 79 per cent of the Godavari catchment area. Besides, Telangana is also drained by minor rivers such as Manair, Bhima, Dindi, Kinnerasani, Manjeera, Munneru, Moosi, Penganga, Praanahita, Peddavagu and Taliperu. And if we did not have enough water disputes south of Vindhyas, expect more than ever once the two warring cousins (Telangana and Seemandhra) are born. Besides, 20 per cent of India's coal deposits, 45 per cent of Andhra's forest area and 41.6 per cent of AP's population are in Telangana.

So, what's happening now?

In a way, things have come a full circle. After 57 years of merger, Telangana is all set to go its own way. However, the loss of Telangana which is rich in natural resources and has filled the combined state's treasury thus far is still

too big for Seemandhra. In a way, after nearly six decades of spoonfeeding, the new state being born is actually Seemandhra, not Telangana.

AP split: what are the political gambits?

For the Congress, Telangana was their trump card. Telangana has 17 Lok Sabha seats and 119 Assembly seats (AP has a total of 294 Assembly seats). If there is a Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS)-Congress coalition/merger, it can aspire to the magic figure of 60 Assembly seats and 12-14 LS seats here.

However, all depends on the TRS support. The TRS leadership has been approached by BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who is also in touch with the TDP.

In Seemandhra, which has 25 LS seats and 175 Assembly seats, the simple majority is 80. The Congress currently holds 97 seats here but a Jaganmohan Reddy sweep has been forecast here long. In the emerging scenario, the Congress seems to have lost the plot here.