© OECD/IEA 2010

Demand and supply of renewable energy in future transport scenarios: range of options

Lew FultonInternational Energy Agency

2010 ITF-KOTI Joint Seminar

on Green Growth in Transportation

www.iea.org

© OECD/IEA 2010

IEA, transport and liquid fuelsRelevant publications

Medium term Oil Market ReportHorizon 2015, focus on oilScenarios currently based on two different GDP growth assumptions

World Energy Outlook (WEO)Horizon 2030, all energy sourcesScenarios depicting different developments on the basis of policy actionsOne underlying assumption for GDP and population growthIncludes a thorough analysis on the oil supply availability

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP)Horizon 2050, all energy sourcesScenarios that pay particular attention to the role of technology, especially on the demand sideOne underlying assumption for GDP and population growth

Transport, energy and CO2 (Transport book)Moving towards sustainability(Transport book)Horizon 2050, all energy sourcesBuilds and expands the work done on ETP

© OECD/IEA 2010

Let’s not forget oil security! World oil production in the WEO 2009 Reference

Scenario

64 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – six times the current capacity of Saudi

Arabia – to meet demand growth & offset decline

© OECD/IEA 2010

World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by region

In the BLUE Map scenario, transport accounts for 23%of reductions. Additional savings accrue in“transformation”, since less high-CO2 fuels (such ascoal-to-liquids) are produced for transport use.

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Buildings 14%

Transport 23%

Industry 16%

Power sector 32%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis

© OECD/IEA 2010

Passenger LDV sales by technology type and scenario: BLUE Map will be VERY challenging

In the ETP Baseline, sales are mainly conventional vehicles through 2050; hybrids reach about 20% of sales

In BLUE Map, strong penetration of hybrids by 2015, PHEVs and EVs by 2020, FCVs after 2025. By 2050, plug-in vehicles account for more than two-thirds of all sales.

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© OECD/IEA 2010

BLUE Map EV/PHEV global sales trajectory to 2050

How can we achieve this?

Annual sales targets:

2020: 7 million: e.g. 70 models selling 100,000 each

2030: 30 million: e.g. 150 models selling 200,000 each

2050: 100 million: e.g. 400 models selling 250,000 each

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© OECD/IEA 2010

Projected electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales through 2020, based on national targets

EV / PHEV sales could reach seven million by 2020

Figure based on announced national sales and stock targets, with assumed 20% annual sales growthafter target is met, if target is before 2020 (e.g. China’s target is for end of 2011).

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© OECD/IEA 2010

Roadmap: some technical findings

EV incremental costs could be high unless all of these targets are met: Battery costs drop to $300/kWh (target for 2015)

Vehicle range on batteries is limited (e.g. 150 km)

Batteries last nearly the life of vehicles (e.g. 15 years) and are amortized over this time frame

Electricity demand does not look like a significant issue on a regional scale before 2030 200 tWh in 2025 v. 13,000 OECD-wide

But… Could become an issue in specific areas

Availability of low-CO2 generation will be key

Load management; grid integration issues emerge

EV/PHEV share of world generation could reach 10% by 2050

© OECD/IEA 2010

Some cost estimatesHybrids, PHEVs and EVs v. gasoline vehicle over time

Notes: PHEV-20= 20 km range, etc; fuel savings estimated over 160k kms of driving; base gasoline vehicle efficiency improves over time; oil prices $80/bbl near term, $120/bbl long term; battery costs decline over time from $750 to about $300/kWh

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Incremental vehicle cost

Fuel savings

© OECD/IEA 2010

How do EV’s compare?Life-cycle CO2 emissions from EU light-duty vehicles

Based on EU average size, new LDVs for 2009 (except EU 2020 target); EV’s assumed efficiency of about 0.2 kWh/km. Note that very efficient or small EVs would achieve lower CO2 than shown here.

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EVs generally cut CO2 emissions today, though not in all comparisons; but in a BLUE Map future they will approach zero CO2.

© OECD/IEA 2010

GHG intensity of electricity production

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By 2050, electricity generation radically decarbonised in BLUE Map – but not in Baseline

© OECD/IEA 2010

Global Vehicle and Fuel Costs, 2010-2050 by ETP Scenario

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PLDV=passenger light-duty vehicle; costs are in real $2008, 0 discount rate.

Fuel cost savings mostly or fully offset the costs of advanced technology vehicles in BLUE Map

© OECD/IEA 2010

Thank You

www.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp