Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Understanding the Global Picture for Renewables and Opportunities for Mine Partnerships
November 2016
2
Global Transition to Renewables
All efforts in the same direction…
Source: REN 21, IEEFA; IRENA; BNEF; Enerdata; GlobalData; TSOs 3
COP 21 Paris agreement: 111 Parties have ratified. Entered into force on 4 November 2016 Governments
Policy Makers
Private Sector
End Users
Renewable Sector Manufacturers, IPPs, Developers
Investors
100 countries accounting for 58% of global emissions are planning a carbon price or equivalent
Green bonds at record levels (65 billion 2016 vs 42 billion 2015)
Global investors shifting capital away from riskier carbon intense to clean: (The Dutch civil service pension fund ABP,
UK pension trust, California State Teachers Retirement System, Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund..)
Global oil & gas capital spending at lowest levels since 2007
Global new investment in renewable at record levels (2015 +5% vs 2014)
Increasing stranded asset risk for incumbents (Oil & Gas, Coal..)
In 2015, renewables accounted for more than 60% of net additions to global power generating capacity
The world now adds more renewable power capacity annually than it adds (net) capacity from all fossil fuels combined
Sustained investment cost and LCOE reductions for all RES technologies mainly wind and solar PV (impressive one)
Record (low) levels in last regulated auctions awarded prices (Dubai, Chile, Mexico)
83 of the most influential world companies committed to 100% renewable power (RE100)
Increasing interest for corporate green PPAs
Nearly two-thirds of Fortune 100 and nearly half of Fortune 500 companies have made renewable energy commitments
The real driver of the global transition to renewables is the reduction of costs (in its broadest sense)
Installed Capacity by Technology, 2004 – 2015
Achieved
Hydro Wind PV Biomass Total
850 GW
1.200 GW
433 GW
92 GW
226 GW 950 GW
1.970 GW
45GW 3 GW 50GW
2004
2015
Source: REN 21, The first decade: 2004 – 2014; IRENA; BNEF; Enerdata; GlobalData; TSOs
2015 Key facts
2015 record year in additional Wind capacity
(~ 63GW)
Record year in terms of PV additional
capacity (~50GW)
Hydro cumulative capacity represents ~60%
of total global RES capacity
Increasing n. of Countries with RES installed
capacity higher >100MW
The evolution of renewable energy over the
past decade has surpassed all expectations
Global installed capacity and production from
all renewable technologies have increased
substantially, and supporting policies have
continued to spread to more countries in all
regions of the world
4
+41%
+766%
+104%
+7433%
+107%
Electricity Demand Growth till 2040 Renewables 2040
The RES market is expected to grow steadily worldwide
Developing countries will contribute over 60% to global growth in electricity production until 2040
It is estimated that RES will account for around 60% of new capacity additions
Expected
5
Sources: National TSOs, Enerdata, IEA, EER, GWEC, EWEA, IRENA, Global Data, EPIA-SPE (2000-2013 figures). EGP estimates based on national
plans, Government targets, WEO, IEA “Medium Term renewable energy report”, GWEC, EWEA, SPE-EPIA, BNEF (2020-2030 figures).
New accelerations
6
•Li-Ion currently leading technology due to flexibility, performance
and synergies with consumer electronics and emerging EV
industries
•Battery price decreasing @ 10-15% YoY rate
Lithium-ion battery pack price (Forecast)
(Source Rocky Mountain Institute)
•World wide: expected CAGR 70% over next 10 years
•Residential storage + PV to lead the massive deployment of
storage systems
New Installed Energy Storage for Renewable Integration
Energy Capacity by Application
(Source : Navigant)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
(MW
h)
Utility-Scale Wind Integration
Utility-Scale Solar Integration
Residential ESRI
Commercial ESRI
7
Enel Green Power leading Enel Group transition to renewables
Enel Green Power
8
A Global Leader in renewable energy
Data as of June 30, 2016 (1H 2016 Financial Results) (does not include large hydro)
2.5 GW in operation
North America
0.3 GW in operation
Rest of World
5.6 GW in operation
Europe
1.6 GW in operation
Latin America
Countries of presence Advanced development Countries of interest
1.1 GW in operation
Central America
3%
23%
24%
50%
11.1 GW
Europe Central &Latin
America
North
America
Rest of
World
33.6 TWh
Wind
Small Hydro Solar
Geo
1. Includes 202 GWh of biomass
Total installed capacity by area
Net production by technology1
Capacity under construction and under development not shown
9
Fixed incentive schemes (GC, Tariffs) Competitive mechanisms (tender/PPA)
Across all geographies and market schemes
16 countries of which 6 with competitive
mechanisms/PPA
50 countries of which 30 with competitive
mechanisms/PPA
2010 – EGP countries of presence 2016 – EGP countries of presence and interest
Country switched to auction or tender since 2010
Source: BNEF; internal analysis
EGP is focused on Mature Technologies… …and testing Innovative Solutions for the market
Technology Focus: Proven Renewables
Wind Onshore
We expand on our main portfolio driver
Solar Photovoltaic
We intend to play a key role in solar market
Geothermal Energy
We take advantage of our leadership in the sector
Hydroeletric
We concentrate on hydro to give a significant contribution to
the electricity demand
Biomass
We focus on converting conventional plants
Innovation: the key to compete
Storage
We work to make Renewable Energies fully dispatchable
Offgrid systems
We bring electricity even in remote areas
Hydrid Solutions
We work to optimize the reliability of the supply and to
reduce the cost of the RES electricity
Solar Home System
We want to offer full services to our customers
Enel Green Power Technologies
Enel Green Power RE Supply through C&I PPAs Long term PPAs with final commercial and industrial customers
USA: more than 2000 MW long term PPA signed with utilities and C&I customers and ~600 MW under negotiation with other industrial customers (Wind)
North America
Mexico & Panama: Over 900 MW long
term PPAs signed with industrial
companies (Wind & Hydro) and ~400
MW under negotiation (Wind & PV)
Chile, Colombia: 600 MW long term
PPAs under negotiations (all tech)
Peru/Argentina scouting ongoing
Latin America
Italy: ~ 50 MW PV and Wind PPA under negotiation
Sweden: Wind, negotiating ~150 MW PPAs
Germany/Turkey scouting ongoing
Europe
Morocco, South Africa, India &
Australia: ~500 MW Wind & PV long
term PPAs under negotiation with C&I
clients
Rest of the region: ongoing scouting
Africa & Asia
Worldwide approach to long term private off-takers 11
Competitive scenarios in the innovation field
EGP Microgrid, Storage and Hybrid solutions
Plants/Initiatives in Pipeline
California - USA
2MW / 8MWh
North Europe , Frequency regulation
> 20MW, > 30MWh
Italy, island
250kW RES + 3MWh ESS
Chile, Island
700kW PV + 2 MWh ESS
Lat-Am Isolated Systems
(0.25-30 MW)
07/05/2016
IPP and integrated
solutions O n/Off - grid
IPP On - grid
Storage
Plants/Initiatives in Operation Plants/Initiatives Under Construction
Ollagüe –
Chile
200kW PV, 30kW Wind, Diesel
250kW/752kWh (Fiamm)
Catania, 10 MW PV
1MW/2MWh (GE)
Potenza Pietragalla 18
MW Wind , HV connection 2MW/2MWh (Samsung)
Fenner, NY – USA 28MW
Wind, HV 4MW/1MWh (Toshiba)
Marcona - Peru
100kW/100kWh + 100kW Wind + 70kW PV+Diesel
Powerhive - Kenya
1MW/3MWh – 90,000 inhab . Cerro Pabellòn - Chile
150kW/150kWh Li - Ion
50kW/450kWh H2
+200kW PV
South Africa PV (up to 15kW)
BESS (up to 14kWh)
Inverter (up to 6kWh) 07/05/2016
Retail Distributed
Generation On/ Off - Grid
California – USA
200kW PV
200kW/800kWh
Storage is more than batteries…
EGP focused on exhaustive research of advanced scada and software tools to optimize
hybrid plants and microgrids reliability, performance and costs
Ollague Micro Grid
Advanced technology, fully monitored and managed remotely
with local community for O&M support
Ollague Micro Grid
Ongoing Upgrades of the Energy management system:
Advanced weather forecast and nowcast technologies
Real time monitoring of the loads (for Load forecast)
Modeling improvements of the genset management strategy
Rightsizing equipment modular additions according to demand increase
Integrate meters and provide innovative billing system: Enhance the system
performance and services by installing a metering system in order to monitor the
customer electricity usage and provide a prepaid service based on consumption
Metering infrastructure provided by Enel Infrastructure
and Networks (EI&N) Third Party’s prepayment and
Billing system integrated with
“La Silla” new technologies
• Installed capacity 1.5 MW
• COD 03/2016
• Subfield for tests three 500 kW
inverter
La Silla PV Plant
Subfield 1 Subfield 2 Subfield 3
Smart Jinko-Maxim modules
Technology
Smart optimized modules with solar
cell optimizers replacing by-pass
diodes
Expected benefit 4-8%
Megacell bifacial modules
Technology High Efficiency Bi-facial Monocrystalline
N-type Photovoltaic Module
Expected benefit 10-20%
It’s time for PV efficiency R&D
17
Approach to partnerships Structuring & Pricing a tailored PPA
Potential RE supply solutions
Interests & needs
• Increase RES capacity
• Secure future revenues
• Geographical and technological
diversification
• Promote and develop new innovative
solutions
• Creating shared values (CSV)
Local contexts
• Regulation
• Power and energy markets
• Local resources
• Commodities
Interest & needs
• Predictable energy pricing
• Cost savings
• Carbon footprint reduction
• Secured supply
• Limited or No upfront capital
• No operating risks
• Corporate image improvement
Conventional supply or
Existing renewable And/or
Certificates (RECS, GoO,…)
Short & medium term solutions Long term solutions
Mature RES technologies Innovative value solutions
No upfront capital
Off site plant – financial or physical PPA
Designing together tailor-made solutions according to respective interests 18
Equity Partnerships
On site plant - physical PPA
Mines
Structuring and pricing
On-Grid Mine Off-Grid Mine
PPAs structures must take into account both parties risk aversion.
Common goal: Proper risk allocation always assuring project bankability
Mines On-Site--Off-Grid RE plant On-Site--Off-Grid RE plant Off-Site--On-Grid RE plant
19
Deal Drivers
Structuring Challenges
Savings: avoided Diesel, carbon tax
Other Benefits: CSV, sustainability targets
Risk management: reliable supply, hedge
vs fuel volatility
Savings: vs regulated tariff/market price, carbon tax, network tolls
Other Benefits: CSV, sustainability targets,
Risk Management: reliable supply, hedge vs tariff/market price volatility
Bankability: PPA term vs mine life, curtailments, take or pay, termination, insolvency, guarantees
PPA structure: volume, fix vs variable price, price indexation, currency, green certs
Risk allocation: Construction, operative, credit & counterparty, FX, volume&price, out of the money PPA vs stranded asset protection,
Operative: O&M and dispatching rules, intermittency management
Equity partnerships?
Bankable minimum term?
Storage? Optimal size/tech?
Deployable-portable plant approach?
Storage? Optimal size/tech?
Net metering? Behind the meter?
Wheeling rules in place?
Land lease term vs PPA term?
Cost of Off-Grid -> On Grid?
Physical or Financial PPA?
Fix or variable price?
Indexation to commodity/spot/tariff?
FX hedge?
Volume tracking account?
Best approach to deal optimization
How to introduce this iterative process
RFP
Info Sharing
Q&A
NBO
Beauty
contest/Short
List
Term Sheet
definition
Binding offer
Governance
Bodies
approval
PPA
negotiation
Dead end PPA
signature
Into this linear one
Project Dev.
PPA Price PPA
Comm. Terms
Project Financing
It is key to understand interlinkages between commercial terms, price and financing cost.
A flexible and dedicated team IPP-Offtaker focused on best PPA price-risk structure should be
in place at some point of the competitive processes
Final Remarks
21
Mining sector, as one of the main energy consumers, has a key role in the unstoppable low-carbon transition of global economy
Renewable energy competitiveness, driven by the cost reductions and innovation, provides a perfect fit between operating cost
optimization and sustainability targets achievement
Renewable IPPs and mines must work together defining tailored energy supply solutions. For this purpose it is key for the IPP:
To understand Mine RE sourcing strategy: Potential acceptable schemes, main current issues (product, price, flexibilities),
market evolution view (alternative tariff/market price), risk aversion…
To understand Mining business: energy consumption assessment, FX risk allocation, possibility of commodity indexed PPA
structures, mine life forecast, residual load after mine closing...
To assess the technical feasibility of the solution: interconnection infrastructure for onsite plants, load characteristics,
dispatching/control features…
And it is key for the mining company:
To understand plant bankability cornerstones and lenders concerns
To understand the generation profile: Seasonality, daily profile, intermittency, stochasticity….
To assess the operational capabilities of the RE plant: production forecast, remote-control, active/reactive power regulation..
Optimum rather than maximum risk transfer together with project bankability are common objectives
22
Thank you