Understanding Teacher Retention and Mobility in Washington ... · Teacher retention and mobility are part of a larger state and national conversation about trends in the teacher workforce

Understanding Teacher Retention and Mobility inWashington State

Final Report

Prepared for the Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction

Ana M Elfers Margaret L Plecki

Anna Van Windekens

University of Washington College of Education

Center for the Study of Teaching and Policy

January 2017

Understanding Teacher Retention and Mobility in Washington State

Table of Contents

ExecutiveSummaryhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipiv

IBackgroundontheTeacherRetentionandMobilityhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip1A StudyContexthelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip1B RelevantLiteraturehelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip1

IIResearchApproachandMethodshelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip4A ResearchQuestionshelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip4B MethodologyDataSourcesProgrammingandAnalyseshelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip4C DefinitionofTermsand MethodologicalNoteshelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip5D StudyLimitationshelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip6E ReportOrganizationhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip6

IIIFindingshelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip6A TrendsinStatewide TeacherCharacteristicshelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip61) DemographicCharacteristicsofTeachers helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip62) Variationin Teacher Placementby RegionalDistribution andSchoolContexthelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip13

3) TeachersNewtotheProfessionhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip15B TrendsinStatewideRetentionandMobilityofTeachershelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip161) StatewideRetentionandMobilityTrendsAcrossFive‐YearTimePeriodshelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip17

2) Year‐by‐YearRetentionandMobilityTrendshelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip19C FactorsInfluencingTeacherRetentionandMobilityhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip231) TeacherExperiencehelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip232) ExitersinRelation toAgehelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip243) StatisticalModelsofRetentionandMobilityforAllTeachersStatewidehelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip25

D Statistical ModelsofRetentionandMobilityforBeginning Teachershellip321) SchoolCharacteristicsofBeginning Teachershelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip332) Statistical ModelsofBeginningTeacherRetentionandMobilityhelliphellip34

IVConclusionsandDiscussionhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip41

Referenceshelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip44

Appendiceshelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip48

List of Tables and Charts

Tables

Table1CharacteristicsofWashingtonTeacherWorkforceTrend Data Table2PercentChange in TeacherPopulationbyRaceEthnicitySelect

Washington Districts withStudentEnrollmentsof10000orMoreTable3RegionalDistributionand CharacteristicsofWashington Teachers(2015‐

16)Table4TrendData for Firstand SecondYear TeachersTable5CharacteristicsofAll BeginningTeachersStatewide2010‐11to2015‐16Table6StatewideTeacherRetentionandMobilityFive YearTrendDataTable7TeacherRetentionandMobilityinSelectWashingtonDistrictswithStudent

Enrollment of10000orMore AfterFiveYears (2011‐12to2015‐16) Table8StatewideBeginning TeacherRetentionFive‐YearTrendData Table9Beginning TeacherRetentionbyESD(FiveYear TrendData2010‐11to

2014‐15)Table10StatewideYear‐by‐Year TeacherRetentionand Mobility TrendDataTable11StatewideBeginning TeacherYear‐by‐YearRetention and MobilityTrend

DataTable12Statewide TrendData SummaryofTeacherExitersbyExperience inFirst

10YearsTable13Statewide TrendData TeacherExitersAge55 orOlder andAge60or

OlderTable14StatewideRetentionand MobilityOutcomesfor TwoFive‐YearTime

PeriodsTable15Significant Predictorsof Teacher ExitOutcomeRelative RiskRatiosTable16SchoolGradeLevelDefinitions and Proportions ofTeachersbySchool

LevelsTable17Significant Predictorsof Teacher MobilityOutofDistrict Outcome

RelativeRiskRatiosTable18Significant Predictorsof TeacherMobilityWithinDistrictOutcome

RelativeRiskRatiosTable19SchoolCharacteristics ofBeginningTeachersStatewide in 2010‐11Table20StatewideRetentionand MobilityOutcomesfor Beginning Teachersfor

TwoFive‐YearTimePeriodsTable21Significant Predictorsof Beginning TeacherExitOutcomeRelativeRisk

RatiosTable22 ProportionofBeginning TeachersbySchoolGradeLevelAssignmentTable23Significant Predictorsof Beginning TeacherMobility OutofDistrict

OutcomeRelativeRisk RatiosTable24Significant Predictorsof Beginning TeacherMobility WithinDistrict

OutcomeRelativeRisk Ratios

Charts

Chart1PercentStudentRaceEthnicity inWashingtonStatein 2015‐16Chart2 PercentTeacherRaceEthnicityinWashingtonState in 2015‐16 Chart3 Washington TeacherWorkforceAgeDistribution over20 Years Chart4 Washington TeacherWorkforceExperience Distributionover20Years Chart5 Statewide TeacherRetentionbyExperienceAfterFive Years (2011‐12to

2015‐16)Chart6TeacherExitersbyAgein2014‐15

Appendices

AppendixADemographicCharacteristicsof WashingtonTeacher Workforce200506to 201415

AppendixBCharacteristicsofAll Beginning TeachersStatewide from2010‐11 to 2015‐16

AppendixCStatewideTrendData TeacherExitersbyExperience inFirst10YearsAppendixDMultinomiallogistic regressionSTATAoutputfortheFive‐Year Period

2010‐11to 2014‐15AppendixEMultinomiallogistic regressionSTATAoutputfortheFive‐Year Period

2011‐12to 2015‐16AppendixFBeginningteachersrsquo multinomiallogisticregression STATAoutputfor

theFive‐YearPeriod2010‐11to2014‐15AppendixGBeginningteachersrsquo multinomiallogisticregression STATAoutputfor

theFive‐YearPeriod2011‐12to2015‐16

Executive Summary

Introduction and Focus of the Study

Teacher retention and mobility are part of a larger state and national conversation about trends in the teacher workforce This study aims to provide insight into the demographics of Washington teachers and their retention and mobility patterns and to offer educators and policymakers in Washington state information to inform and enhance decision-making regarding teacher quality policies and practices

Methodology and Data Sources

The primary data source for this study is the personnel data from the statersquos S-275 dataset This dataset contains demographic and assignment information about all educators in Washington state We linked the S-275 data to other state databases including school demographic data across multiple years enabling us to conduct longitudinal analyses that are comparable over time Using state administrative datasets we examined demographic information about teachers over the last 20 years from 1995-96 to 2015-16 focusing specifically on the last ten years In examining retention and mobility trends over time we look at nine five-year time periods since 1998 We also examined year-by-year changes in demographic characteristics and retention and mobility for each year for the period 2005-2015 We use four categories to analyze teacher retention and mobility stayers in the same school movers within district movers out of district and exiters from the Washington education system

To help explain teacher retention and mobility patterns we constructed multinomial logistic regression models using STATA 14 software as this approach enables us to investigate the relationship between our dependent outcome variables of interest (retention and mobility status) and a number of continuous and categorical independent variables (eg district school and individual characteristics) The focal question for this work is ldquoWhat variables consistently explain teachersrsquo retention and mobility patterns in Washington staterdquo The two main populations investigated include all teachers statewide (across all years of experience) and beginning teachers (those with less than one year of experience)

Selected Findings

Demographic characteristics

While the number of teachers in Washington state has increased by approximately 11000 in the last twenty years the racial and ethnic diversity of the teacher workforce made only minimal gains In 1995-96 there were approximately 49000 teachers 94 of whom were White In 2015-16 90 of the statersquos 60000 teachers were White The increase in diversity of the workforce was concentrated among Hispanics with the percent of Hispanic teachers increasing from 17 to 39 and the percent of AsianPacific IslanderNative Hawaiian teachers rising from 20 to 28 The proportion of BlackAfrican American teachers has declined from 16 in 1995-96 to

12 in 2015-16 The proportion of Native American teachers also declined slightly from 08 to 07 in the last twenty years

The proportion of teachers over the age of 50 continued to rise from 20 in 1995 until it peaked at 36 in 2011 Since then the proportion of older teachers has gradually declined to 32 in 2015

The number of teachers in their first and second year of experience has more than doubled in the last six years (2010-11 to 2015-16)

Statewide trends in retention and mobility across five-year time periods

Nearly 60 of Washington teachers are located in the same school after five years and this retention rate has changed little in nearly 15 years Of the remaining teachers 14 move to other schools within their district and 7 relocate to another district within the state Approximately 20 of teachers exit the workforce after five years and many of these teachers are of retirement age

While the statewide portrait reveals considerable stability the rates of teacher retention and mobility for individual districts often vary considerably In a sample of 10 districts with student enrollment above 10000 the percent of teachers who stayed in their same schools after five years ranged from 45 to 62

Across 4 five-year time periods examined the retention rate of beginning teachers (those with less than one year of experience) in the same school ranged between 42 and 47 A higher proportion of beginning teachers move within and out of their districts as compared to all teachers statewide However the rate of beginning teachers exiting the Washington workforce has declined in the most recent fiveshyyear period to a low of 21 similar to all teachers statewide

During the five-year period from 2010shy11 to 2014shy15 ESDs 112 and 123 had the highest rates of beginning teachers who stayed in their schools while ESDs 171 105 and 114 had the highest rates of beginning teachers who exited from the Washington education system

Novice teachers (0shy4 years of experience) and veteran teachers (25 or more years of experience) stay in their schools at lower rates (47 and 48 respectively) than midshyexperience teachers (5shy14 years 60 and 15shy14 years 64) Veteran teachers have the highest rates of exiting (44) compared with 20 of novices and 13 and 19 of midshyexperience teachers

Year-by-year retention and mobility trends (10 years 2005-06 to 2015-16)

From one year to the next on average 84 of all teachers statewide are retained in their same school 7 move to another school within the district and 2 change districts

Trend data over the last ten years shows that less than 7 of the workforce leaves in any given year though there is some variation

The majority of beginning teachers (on average 71) stay in their school from one year to the next 11 move within the district and 7 move out of district On average 12 exit the workforce in the following year

During the economic recession (2008shy09 to 2011shy12) proportionately fewer teachers moved out of district and in the first two years fewer exited the workforce Additionally a higher proportion of beginning teachers moved within their district and exited the workforce during this period

Over the last ten years the percent of exiters age 55 or older has increased from 35 in 2005shy06 to a high of 52 in 2012shy13 By 2014-15 the percent of exiters age 55 or older dropped to 48

Statistical models of retention and mobility

Using multinomial logistic regression models we identified statistically significant variables associated with teacher retention and mobility

For all teachers statewidehellip o Full-time teachers are more likely to stay in the same school less likely to move within district or out of district and less likely to exit than part-time teachers

o High school teachers are more likely to exit or move out of district than elementary teachers

o Teachers outside ESD 121 are less likely to exit and to move out of district and more likely to move in district than those in ESD 121

For beginning teachershellip o Fullshytime beginning teachers are half as likely to exit as part-time beginning teachers

o High school beginning teachers are more likely to move out of district and twice as likely to exit as elementary beginning teachers

o Beginning teachers in larger districts are slightly more likely to move within district and less likely to move out of district as beginning teachers in smaller districts

o As the percent of White students enrolled in the school increases there is a slight decrease in the likelihood that a beginning teacher will move out of district

The poverty level of the school was not a consistent statistical predictor of teacher turnover or attrition for all teachers or for beginning teachers a finding that differs from some other research in other locations

Conclusions and discussion

The longitudinal analysis suggests that any perceived statewide shortage of teachers in

recent years is not due to recent changes in the statewide retention or attrition of teachers

There is no evidence to support the ldquomythrdquo that ldquohalf of all beginning teachers leave the profession within five yearsrdquo in Washington state In Washington state on average over the past 20 years one quarter of beginning teachers exit the state system either permanently or temporarily after five years In fact the rate of beginning teachers exiting the Washington workforce has declined in the most recent five-year period to a point where it is similar to all teachers statewide

Very little progress has been made in the past 20 years in improving the diversity of the teacher workforce Of particular concern is the decrease in the proportion of BlackAfrican-American teachers statewide State policies aimed at improving teacher diversity certainly seem indicated

Given the substantial increase in the proportion of new teachers in recent years the need for efficient and effective teacher mentoring and support programs is more pronounced than it has been in the past

Further investigation is needed to understand why full-time teachers and high school teachers have statistically significant differences in retention and mobility rates as compared to all teachers and all beginning teachers

State strategies need to be differentiated and targeted in ways that recognize the variation that exists in teacher retention and mobility rates

Study Limitations and Unaddressed Questions

While this study provides a comprehensive and longitudinal analysis of teacher retention and mobility including factors that may impact turnover rates we do not examine some other related issues First we do not address the reasons why teachers choose to move to other schools or districts or why they decide to leave the profession either temporarily or permanently Issues such as increased workload quality of school and district leadership support from parents and community and personal and family factors are all known to influence teacherrsquos views about their careers We also do not distinguish between teachers who have been involuntarily transferred Additionally we make no claims about the quality of the performance of teachers who stay in their schools move to another school or district or leave the profession

This report also does not examine the extent to which the current supply of teachers is adequate to meet future staffing needs Inquiry about the adequacy of the teacher ldquopipelinerdquo including the number endorsements and quality of prospective teachers is another important aspect of understanding workforce dynamics Based on the findings in this study inquiry into these questions is likely to yield further insight into policies that may enhance the retention and support of teachers

I Background on Teacher Retention and Mobility

Thepurposeofthisreportisto provideeducatorsandpolicymakersinWashingtonstatewithaccurateinformation aboutstatewideteacherretention andmobilityandtoinformandenhancedecisionmaking regardingteacherquality policiesand practicesThisanalysisoffers asystematiclongitudinalapproachforexaminingtrendsin teacherretentionmobilityand attritionInthis reportwe examinethecharacteristicsofteachersand lookatfactorsassociatedwith theirretention andmobilityincludingteachersrsquobackgroundcharacteristicsdistrictand studentdemographicsandregionallocationWepay particularattentiontotheretentionandmobilityofteachersnewtotheprofession

A Study Context

Teacher retentionmobilityandattrition are partoflarger state and nationalconversationsaboutperceivedchangesinthe teacherworkforce Concernshavebeenraised aboutapotentialshortageofteachersduetoapossibledecrease inthesupplyofnewteachersenteringtheprofessionchangesineducationpolicythatrequireadditionalstaffandrumorsofmoreteachersleavingtheprofessionamongotherfactorsWhiletherehave beenperennial shortages ofteachers inschoolsservingdisadvantagedstudents andareassuchasspecialeducation mathsciencebilingualandEnglishlanguageeducationtheextent towhichnewfluctuationsintheteacher workforce arelocalregionalornationalremainsunclear There are alsoconcernsaboutthepotentialimpactofteachermobilityonthe equitabledistributionofteachersacross schoolsThisstudyisan attempttoaddresssomeaspectsofthesequestionssurroundingthenatureoftheWashington teacherworkforce

B Relevant Literature

Nationalstudiesoftheteacherworkforcehaveconcludedthatwhilethenumberofteachershasgrownwithincreasesinthestudentpopulationoverallteacherretentionandmobility rateshave remainedrelativelystableovertime(GoldringTaieampRiddles2014 Luekens Lyter ampFox2004Marvelet al2006NCES2005)The earliestSchoolsandStaffingSurvey(SASS)wasadministeredbytheNationalCenterforEducationStatistics in1987‐88and themostrecentTeacherFollow‐upSurvey(TFS)in2012‐13Ofpublicschoolteacherswhowereteachinginthe2011‐12schoolyear84remained inthesameschool8movedtoadifferentschooland8left the profession duringthe followingyear(GoldringTaieampRiddles2014)

Fewstudiespointtowidespread nationalteachershortagesHoweverstudieshavefoundissuesofparticularconcern relatedtostaffing inschoolsFor exampletherateofattritionfromtheteaching profession variesbyteacherrsquosage withyoungest

andoldest teachersleaving athigherrates Themainreasons citedbypublicschoolteachersforleavingtheworkforce includedretirement andpregnancychildrearing(Whitener etal1997)AnotherNCESstudy Americarsquos Teachers Profile of the Professionreportthat thevastmajority ofthe nationrsquosteachersareexperiencedteacherswhocontinuetoteachfromyeartoyear(Henkeetal 1997)However ithasbeenmoredifficultforschoolstofindfullyqualifiedteachersinsomefieldsthaninotherssuchasmathematicsscienceandspecialeducation(CowanGoldhaberHayesamp Theobald2016Henkeetal1997 PodgurskyEhlert LindsayampWan2016)Researchershavealsonoteddifficultyinfindingfully qualified teachers inschoolsservinglarger proportionsofstudentsinpoverty (EngelJacobampCurran2014Henkeetal1997)TheLearningPolicy Instituterecentlyreleasedareport inwhichtheysuggest thattoomany teachersareleaving theworkforceandthis couldresult inafuture shortage(SutcherDarling‐Hammondamp Carver‐Thomas 2016)

UsingSASSandTFSdataIngersollhasexaminedteacherturnoveras a functionof theorganization andmanagement ofschoolsandconcludesthatmanyteachersleave forreasonsother thanretirementHedoesnotconclude thatteachershortages arearesultofalackofqualified teachersbutratherthe resultofteachersmovingfromoneschooltoanother(72percent)orexitingthe professiontopursueotherjobs(6percent)thereby creatingasituationwhichhecallsaldquorevolvingdoorrdquo (2001ap24)Evidence suggests thatwhenteachersmovetheyoftentransfertootherschoolswithintheirdistrict Betweentheschoolyears 2011‐2012an analysisofTFSdata foundthat ofamong thosewhotransferred59movedtoanotherschoolwithintheirdistrictand38movedtoaschoolinanother district (Goldring TaieampRiddles2014) Thisintra‐districtmovement indicates thatcertainschoolcharacteristics(suchasworking conditionsofschoolsthe socio‐economicstatusandethnicityofstudents)maymotivate teacherstomove orleaveinadditiontothecommonly‐perceivedreasonsof retirement and child‐rearing(Ingersoll2001b LuekensLyter amp Fox2004)

Inparticularthecompositionofaschoolrsquosstudentbodywith regard toraceethnicityandpovertyhasbeenshowntoinfluenceteacherattritionandmobility(Guin2004HanushekKain amp Rivkin2001Ingersoll2001b Kelly2004LankfordLoebampWyckoff2002 NCES2005Podgursky Ehlert LindsayampWan2016Shen 1997)Whilethese factorsmayposeparticularchallengesotherstudieshavefoundthattheinfluenceofstudentdemographicsonreportedturnoverandhiring problemsmaybereducedwhenfactoringin certainpositive working conditions(LoebampDarling‐Hammond2005) Othershave noted a decline inthe proportionofminorityteachers in somecases suggesting that minorityteachersrsquocareershavebeenless stablethan thoseofWhiteteachers (AlbertShankerInstitute2015IngersollampMay2011)

Teacher turnovercannegatively affectthecohesivenessandeffectivenessofschoolcommunitiesbydisruptingeducationalprogramsandprofessional relationshipsintendedto improvestudentlearning(BormanampDowling2008BrykLeeampSmith

1990Ingersoll2001bRonfeldtLoebampWyckoff2013)Most agreethatsomeattritionis normaland thathealthy turnover canpromoteinnovationinschools(Macdonald1999)HarrisandAdams(2007)howeverfoundthatteachersleavetheprofessionataboutthesameratesassimilarprofessionssuchassocialworkandnursingandthatteachersactuallyhadalowerturnoverratethantheaveragecollegegraduate

Oftenteachersleavefor personalreasonsmdashthedesire for career changeorfamilypressuresmdashbutmanyorganizationalconditionsarepotentiallypart of the storyAccordingtoaseriesofnationalstudieslackofcollegialandadministrativesupportstudentmisbehavior and disinterest insufficientsalarylack ofteacherautonomyunreasonableteaching assignment lackofprofessionaldevelopmentopportunitiesand inadequateallocationoftimeallcontributetothe departureofteachers(Boydetal2011Burkhauser2016Ingersoll2003JohnsonKraftampPapay2012Kelly2004LuekensLyterampFox2004NCES2003)

Teacher attrition ishigherintheearlyyearsof teaching when comparedwithmid‐careerteachers(GoldringTaie amp Riddles2014MurnaneSingeramp Willet1988Lortie1975Shen1997)Inexamining the TFAdatafrom2011‐12Goldring TaieandRiddles (2014)foundthat7 ofteachers withoneto three years ofexperienceleftthefollowingyearInthe 1993BaccalaureateandBeyond LongitudinalStudyHenke ZahnampCarroll(2001)foundthat82 percentofnoviceteacherswerestillteachingthreeyearslaterandnotethatnone oftheother occupationalcategoriesexaminedprovedmorestablethan teachersInastudyofnoviceteacherturnover infourMidweststates Theobald andLaine(2003)found thatthepercentage ofthosewholeft teaching duringthe first fiveyearsvaried from 20to32percentdependingonthestate

Novicesalsoareconsiderablymorelikely tomovethan otherteachers(GoldringTaieampRiddles2014 NCES2005)Inalongitudinalstudyof new teachersinMassachusettsJohnsonandBirkeland(2003)foundthatexperiencesattheschoolsitewerecentralininfluencing newteachersrsquo decisionsto stayintheirschoolsandinteaching Theyarguethatnoviceteachersrsquo professional successandsatisfaction istied tothe particularschoolsiteandthatworkingconditions foundtosupporttheir teachingincludecollegialinteractionopportunities forgrowthappropriateassignmentsadequate resources andschool‐widestructurestosupportstudentlearning Theseissues maybeparticularlyacutefor new teachersinlow‐incomeschools(Johnsonetal 2004)Othershave foundthattheparticipation in a combinationofmentoringandgroupinductionprogramsmayreducebeginningteacher turnover(IngersollampStrong2011SmithampIngersoll 2004)thoughthequalitative distinctions amongtheseprogramsandtheir relativecost‐effectivenessarenotalwaysclear(Ingersollamp Kralik2004)

II Research Approach and Methods

A Research Questions

Theresearch questionsaddressed inthisstudyofWashingtonrsquos teacherworkforceincludethe following

1 Whatarethe demographiccharacteristicsofteachersin WashingtonstateTowhatextenthavethesedemographicschangedin recentyears withrespectto raceethnicitygenderandeducationlevelTowhatextentdodifferences existbetweenbeginningteachers andmoreexperienced teachers

2 Whatarethe overallretentionand mobilityratesfor teachers overthepastfiveyearsHavetheserateschangedincomparison tostateaveragesin prior yearsIfsoinwhatspecificways Inwhatwaysifatall dothesechangescoincidewithmajorstatewideinitiatives

3 Whatdifferences ifanyexistintheretention andmobilityratesofbeginningteacherscomparedtoteacherswith moreexperience

4 Inwhatwaysdodifferences inteacherretentionandmobilityratesexistby(a)demographiccharacteristics ofteachers(b)regionof thestateand(c)districtandschooldemographics (egsizepovertystudent diversity)

B Methodology Data Sources Programming and Analyses

Weuseseveraldatasourcestoconductastatewideanalysisof theretentionandmobilitypatternsofteachersTheprimarydatasourceisthe personneldatafromthestatersquosS‐275datasetThis datasetcontains demographicandassignmentinformation aboutalleducatorsin WashingtonstateWelinktheS‐275datatootherstate databasesincluding schoolanddistrictdemographicdatatoformaportraitofteacherretention andmobilityWehaveaccessto multipleyearsofdataenablingustoconductlongitudinal analysesthatarecomparableover timeUsingstateadministrative datasetsweexamineddemographicinformation aboutteachersoverthelast 20yearsfrom 1995‐96 to2015‐16 focusingspecificallyon thelastten yearsIn examiningretentionand mobilitytrends over timewelookatninefive‐yeartimeperiodssince1998Wealso examined year‐by‐yearchanges indemographiccharacteristicsand retentionandmobilityforeach yearfortheperiod2005‐2015 Boththefive‐yearand year‐by‐yearanalyses arecohort‐basedThat isweidentify teachers in agivenyearandthen examinetheirassignment intheworkforce inthesubsequentyear

Tohelpexplainteacher retentionandmobility patternsweconstructed multinomiallogisticregression modelsusing STATA 14software asthisapproachenablesustoinvestigatetherelationshipbetweenourdependentoutcomevariablesofinterest(retentionandmobility status)and anumberofcontinuousandcategoricalindependentvariables(egdistrict schoolandindividual

characteristics)ThefocalquestionforthisworkisldquoWhatvariables consistentlyexplain teachersrsquoretentionandmobilitypatternsinWashington staterdquoThetwomainpopulations investigated includeallteachersstatewide(across allyearsof experience)andbeginning teachers(thosewithlessthan oneyearof experience)

C Definition of Terms and Methodological Notes

Aspartof thisstudyweprovide analysesofbothfive‐year andyear‐by‐year retentionandmobility rates forall teachersstatewideandfor beginning teachersForthepurposesofthisstudyteacherretentionandmobility includesboththeextent towhichteachersmoveto otherschoolsandotherdistrictsaswellasleavethestateeducationsystemWedescribethecriteria forthe teachersincludedin theseanalysesasfollows

Teachers weredefinedasthosepublicschoolteacherswhoseassignment istheinstructionofpupilsinaclassroomsituationandwho have adesignationasan elementary teachersecondaryteacher otherclassroomteacherorelementary specialist teacher1 Otherteachersservingin specialistroles(eg readingresourcespecialistlibrary mediaspecialist)werenot includedin the statewideanalyses

Beginning Teachers weredefinedasthosepublicschoolteacherswithlessthan1year ofexperienceasreportedin theS‐275

Inorder to examineretentionand mobilitypatternsteachersareplacedinoneoffourcategories ldquoStayersrdquondash teachers assignedto the sameschool(s)intheinitialschoolyear andalsointhesubsequentyear

ldquoMoversinrdquo ndashteachers whomoved tootherschoolsinthesamedistrictorchangedassignment(otherthan a classroomteacher)withinthe samedistrict

ldquoMoversoutrdquondashteacherswhomovedtootherdistrictseitheras aclassroomteacheror insomeotherrole

ldquoExitersrdquondashteacherswho exited theWashington education systemeither temporarilyorpermanently2

1 Asreported bytheOfficeoftheSuperintendentofPublicInstructionclassroomteachersare certificated instructionalstaffwith a duty root designationof 313233or34Teacherswhosefull‐time equivalent(FTE)designationwaszerowereexcludedtheanalysis 2 Exiters mayhaveretiredre‐enteredthesysteminsubsequent years leftWashingtonto teachin anotherstateorcompletelyleft theprofessionItisnot possible to distinguishvoluntary and involuntary departures Itisnot possibleto determinewhetherteacherswholeft the state continued to beemployed asteacherselsewhere

D Study Limitations

Whilethisstudyprovidesacomprehensiveandlongitudinalanalysis ofteacherretentionandmobility includingfactorsthat mayimpactturnover rateswedo notexaminesomeotherrelatedissuesFirstwedonotaddressthereasonswhyteacherschoosetomovetoother schoolsordistrictsor whytheydecidetoleavetheprofessioneithertemporarilyorpermanentlyIssuessuch asincreasedworkloadqualityofschoolanddistrictleadershipsupportfromparentsandcommunityandpersonalandfamilyfactorsareallknowntoinfluence teacherrsquosviews abouttheircareersWealso donotdistinguishbetween teacherswhochoose tomakeachangeintheirassignmentorlocationandthosewho havebeeninvoluntarilytransferredAdditionallywemakenoclaimsaboutthequalityoftheperformanceofteacherswhostay intheirschoolsmovetoanotherschoolor districtorleave theprofession

Thisreportalsodoesnotexamine theextent towhichthecurrentsupplyofteachersisadequate tomeetfuturestaffingneedsInquiryabouttheadequacy oftheteacherldquopipelinerdquo includingthenumberendorsementsandqualityof prospectiveteachersisanotherimportantaspectofunderstandingworkforce dynamicsBasedonthe findings inthisstudyinquiryintothesequestionsislikely toyield furtherinsightintopoliciesthatmay enhance theretentionandsupportofteachers

E Report Organization

Webeginbyproviding aportraitofthedemographiccharacteristicsofWashington teachersovertimeWe analyze teachersrsquofive‐year andyear‐by‐year retentionandmobilityratesovermultipletimeperiodsand discussfactors thatmayinfluencetheserates Nextweusestatistical modelstoexplorepossiblefactors relatedtoteacher retentionand mobility andconductseparateanalysesforallteachersstatewideandforallbeginning teachersThereportconcludes with a discussion ofthefindings andpossible policyimplications

III Findings

A Trends in Statewide Teacher Characteristics

1) Demographic Characteristics of Teachers

Asstudent enrollments haveincreasedstatewideinrecentyearssohavethenumberofteachersintheworkforceApproximately60000teachers3 wereworking inWashingtonduringthe2015‐16 schoolyearupfromapproximately 49000 in

3 Certificatedinstructionalstaff with FTE designation gt0 in a duty root of 3132 33or34intheS‐275

1995The full‐timeequivalent(FTE)countofteachersemployedinthestatehasfluctuatedsomewhatoverthis time periodwithaslightdropreportedin the 2011‐12and 2012‐13schoolyears4 The majorityof teachers in WashingtonareWhite(90)astatisticthathaschangedbyonlyafewpercentagepoints duringthelasttwentyyearsTheexperiencelevelsofWashingtonteachershaveremainedfairlyconstantapproximatelytwo‐thirdsofteachershavebetween5and24yearsofexperience andfewerthanaquarterhavelessthanfiveyears of experience(seeTable1andAppendixA)

Trendsoverthelasttwenty years doshowgradualchangesintheworkforce Overthetwenty‐yearperiodthereisan agingof the teacherworkforceAhigherproportionoftheworkforceisovertheageof 50(32compared with20in1995)Aslightlyhigherproportionofteachersarewomenin2015‐16thantwentyyears ago(73comparedwith68)andasubstantiallyhigherproportionhave amasterrsquosdegree(66 comparedwith46) Tofurther understand thesedescriptive statisticswe discusssomeofthemsuchasteacherraceethnicityandageandexperience in greaterdetail

4 For moreinformationsee OSPIrsquos annual ldquoSchoolDistrict Personnel Summary Reportsrdquo and AppendixAofthisreport

Table 1 Characteristics of Washington Teacher Workforce Trend Data Statewide

199596 200001 200506 201011 201516

Student Enrollment 951795 1004843 1013189 1041892 1084359

Teachers (Headcount) 48997 53216 56403 56222 59809 FTE Teachers

Teacher Gender

46882 50744 53615 53591 57628

Female 680 698 711 718 733 Male

Education Level

320 302 289 282 267

Bachelors 526 464 382 326 326 Masters 463 522 600 657 657 Doctorate 05 06 06 06 06 Other

Teacher Age (jn given year)

06 08 12 11 11

21‐30 142 163 154 128 150 31‐40 237 226 242 259 261 41‐50 416 323 262 255 268 51‐60 188 268 299 277 237 61+

Teacher RaceEthnicity

16 21 43 81 84

AsianPacific Islander 20 23 25 25 28 BlackAfrican American 16 16 15 13 12 Hispanic 17 20 24 32 39 Native American 08 08 08 08 07 White (non‐Hispanic) 939 934 928 909 899 More than one race

Teacher Experience

NA NA NA 14 14

0‐4 years 201 234 218 172 235 5‐14 years 354 352 374 408 359 15‐24 years 306 257 245 253 254 25 yrs or more 139 157 164 167 151

Preliminary S275 duty root 31 32 33 or 34 with FTE designation greater than 0 in given year

Teacher raceethnicity

Whileapproximately9 outof10 teachersare Whitetheteacher workforcehasbecomeslightlymorediverse since1995The proportion ofteachers whoareWhitedroppedfrom939in1995‐96to899in 2015‐16 Thegreatest increasehasbeenamong Hispanicteachersgrowingfrom17oftheworkforce in1995‐96 to

39in 2015‐16Teacherswhoidentify asAsianNativeHawaiianorPacificIslanderhavealsoincreasedslightlyfrom20to28overthis twenty‐yearperiodTheproportionofteachers whoidentifyasNative American or BlackAfricanAmerican hasdeclinedslightly Theproportionof teachers identifying asmorethan oneracecomprised14oftheworkforce in 2015‐16and hasremainedunchangedsince thecategory wasadded in 2010

Whileitis importantto understandstatewidecharacteristics astatewideanalysismaymaskimportantdifferencesintheteacher workforce Inorder toexaminedifferences inteachercharacteristicsacrosslargerdistricts tensampledistrictswereselectedThedistricts reflectwide variationinsocio‐economicregionallocationandstudentcharacteristicsfactorswhichmightinfluencethecompositionoftheteacherworkforceDistricts withastudent enrollment of 10000ormorewereselectedsothatdescriptivestatisticswouldnotbeundulyinfluencedbysmallnumbersofteacherswithinthecategoricalbreakoutsThesetendistrictsareusedinseveralplacesinthe reportto illustratedifferencessometimesmaskedbystatewideaggregationsTable2showsdifferencesin the percentage changeintheteacherpopulationbyraceand ethnicityfrom 1995to2015in these tendistrictsThetablepresentsthe twotimeperiodsseparately(1995 to2009and2010to2015)inordertomoreaccurately reflectchangesfollowingnew federalrequirementsforreporting teacherethnicityandrace

Whiletheoverallteacherworkforcehasslowlygrownmoreraciallyandethnicallydiverseinthelasttwentyyearssimilartolargeurbandistrictsnationally(AlbertShankerInstitute 2015)SeattleandtoalesserextentTacomahavebothlostasubstantial proportion oftheirBlackAfrican AmericanteachersAscanbeseeninTable2in Seattle the proportion ofBlackAfrican Americanteachersdroppedby28percentagepointsfrom1995to2009and 16percentagepointsfrom2010to 2015Tacomasawdecreasesof05 percentagepoints and1percentagepointintheproportionofBlackAfricanAmericanteachersforthesametime periodsSince2010the teacherworkforceinSeattleSpokaneandHighlineproportionatelyhavebecomemoreWhiteIncontrast bothYakimaandKennewickhave shownsubstantial increases theproportionofHispanicteachersand Bellevuehasseenanincrease amongAsianNativeHawaiianor PacificIslanderteachers acrossbothtimeperiodsTable2providesdetailsforeachofthetenselected districts

Table 2 Percent Change in Teacher Population by RaceEthnicity From 1995 to 2009 and from 2010 to 2015 Select Washington Districts with Student Enrollment of 10000 or More

From 1995‐96 to 2009‐10 (fifteen year period) 2010‐11 to 2015‐16 (five year period)

Black African American Hispanic

Asian Pacific Islander

Native American

White (non‐

Hispanic)

Native American

Two or More Races

Statewide ‐16 ‐02 11 07 no change ‐10 ‐01 07 03 ‐01 no change Seattle Spokane Tacoma Vancouver Bellevue Highline Kennewick Yakima Bellingham Central Kitsap

31 ‐28 NC NC ‐03 ‐13 04 06 NC 03 ‐26 ‐05 12 18 01 ‐28 03 22 04 ‐01 ‐06 ‐13 ‐01 23 ‐03 ‐35 06 12 19 ‐03 ‐40 03 30 05 02 ‐49 ‐10 61 ‐01 ‐02 ‐17 ‐01 03 09 07 ‐01 NC ‐03 06 ‐02

16 08 ‐14 ‐07 ‐37 13 ‐12 ‐19 ‐18 ‐03

‐16 05 NC ‐02 01 ‐06 ‐03 ‐01 ‐10 16 02 ‐01 ‐04 ‐01 06 ‐01 NC 19 23 ‐05 ‐01 05 01 01 02 16 NC NC ‐06 26 ‐02 ‐01 ‐02 11 NC 01 ‐01 09 02 ‐05

‐03 NC 07 08 NC ‐18 ‐05 02 08 ‐03

The two time periods are presented separately to more accurately reflect the addition of the two or more races category in 2010‐11 NC stands for No change

Thefollowingchartsshowtheraceethnicity disparitybetween Washingtonstudents and teachers In2015‐16whiletheproportionof studentsofcolor(non‐White)enrolledinpublicschoolswasapproximately44teachers ofcolorrepresentedonly10 oftheoverallteaching workforce(seeCharts 1and2)

Chart 1 Percent Student RaceEthnicity in Washington State in 2015‐16

American IndianAlaskan Native

AsianPacific Islander

BlackAfrican American

Hispanic

Two or More Races

07 28 12

Chart 2 Percent Teacher RaceEthnicity in Washington State in 2015‐16

Hispanic

Two or More Races

Teacher age and experience

Thedistributionofteachersby ageinWashingtonstatehasfollowed asimilarpatternoverthelasttwenty years withafew peaksinage and alargerproportionofolderteachersremaining inthe workforceinrecentyears Classroomteachersrsquoagerevealshowthedemographicgroupbornduringthe post‐World WarIIbabyboomhasmovedthroughtheWashingtonstateworkforceInWashingtontheproportion ofteachers overtheageof50continuedtorisefrom20 in1995untilitpeakedat36in 2011Since thentheproportionofolder teachershasgraduallydeclined to32in 2015Only32ofcurrentWashingtonteachers werebornbefore1965Chart3examinesfourtimeperiodsoverthe last twenty years Additionaltrenddataon teacher ageislocatedinAppendixA

Number

of Teachers

Thedistributionofteachersbyexperienceis afactor frequentlyexamined particularly withregard tothosewhoarenovices(0to 4years ofexperience)andthosewhoaremostveteran (25or moreyearsofexperience)and perhapsnearingretirement Chart4displayshowteacherexperiencerangeshaveremained fairlyconstant overthe five timeperiods Theactual numbersareshowninTable1 Noviceteachersstatewidecomprise lessthan 25ofthe workforceinanytime periodand themostveteran teacherscomprise lessthan 20

Teacher Age

Chart 3 Washington Teacher Workforce Age Distribution over 20 Years

Teachers in 1995

Teachers in 2000

Teachers in 2005

Teachers in 2015

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Chart 4 Washington Teacher Workforce Experience Distribution over 20 Years

0‐4 years 5‐14 years 15‐24 years 25 yrs or more

Anotherwaytoconsidertheproportionofthe teacherworkforce thatleaves each yeardue toretirement istoexaminethedistributionofexitingteachersbyage ina givenyear Wetakeup issuesofexitingageandexperiencein a later section of the report

2) Variation in Teacher Placement by Regional Distribution and School Context

Thecontext andconditionsforschoolinglooksomewhatdifferentdependingon theregion ofthestateInaneffortto examineregionaldifferencesTable 3 representsthecharacteristicsofallteachers within threelarge geographicalareasofthestategroupedbyEducational ServiceDistrict(ESD)SchooldistrictsservedbythePugetSoundEducationalServiceDistrict (ESD121)arerepresentedas the CentralPugetSoundregionThedistrictsin WesternWashingtonoutsidethe CentralPugetSoundarerepresented asagroup(ESDs112113114and 189)Eastern WashingtonisrepresentedbythefourESDswhichroughlycorrespondtotheeasternsideofthestate(ESDs101105123and171)

In2015‐16theCentralPugetSoundrepresented39of Washington teacherswhiletheWesternWashingtonregionoutside theCentralPugetSoundandEasternWashington had35 and26of thestatersquosteachersrespectively Overallteacher characteristicsbyregionaresimilarwitha few variations Eastern Washingtonhasahigherproportionof maleteachers(291)comparedtoteachers working inWesternWashington andtheCentralPugetSoundThereareslightvariationsbylevelofexperience and ageTeachersinEasternWashingtonandWesternWashington outsidethe CentralPugetSoundtend tobeslightly olderandmore experienced

Asmightbeexpectedthereareregionaldifferencesbyteacher raceethnicity with ahigherproportionof teachers identifying as AsianPacificIslander BlackAfrican American orofmorethanone race working in theCentralPuget SoundregionEasternWashingtonhasthehighest proportionofHispanicteachersEastern Washington andWesternWashingtonoutsidetheCentralPugetSoundhaveproportionatelyslightly moreNativeAmericanteachersthanthe CentralPugetSound(seeTable3)

Table 3 Regional Distribution and Characteristics of Washington Teachers (2015-16)

Statewide

2015‐16

Central Puget Sound

(ESD 121)

Western WA (outside ESD 121) Eastern WA

Student Enrollment 1081657 420273 385942 275442

Teachers (Headcount) 59809 23096 21150 15563 Teacher FTE

Teacher Gender

57593 22192 20285 15116

Female 733 751 733 709 Male

Education Level

267 249 267 291

Bachelors 326 318 311 337 Masters 657 658 666 642 Doctorate 06 08 05 04 Other

11 16 19 12

20‐30 150 184 103 145 31‐40 261 271 250 261 41‐50 268 253 282 270 51‐60 237 214 256 245 61+

Teacher Ethnicity

84 77 94 79

AsianPacific Islander 28 50 18 10 African American 12 24 06 05 Hispanic 39 31 22 73 Native American 07 06 08 08 White (non‐Hispanic) 899 869 935 895 More than one race

Teacher Experience

14 20 11 09

0‐4 years 235 273 206 219 5‐14 years 359 367 358 350 15‐24 years 254 232 268 269 25 yrs or more 151 128 168 162

Based on preliminary S‐275 data and downloadable 2015‐16 School Report Card demographic information by district S275 duty roots 31 32 33 or 34 with FTE designation greater than 0 in given year

Region as defined by Washingtons 9 Educational Service Districts Central Puget Sound (ESD 121) Western WA outside Central Puget Sound (ESDs 112 113 114and 189) and Eastern WA (ESDs 101 105 123 and 171)

3) Teachers New to the Profession

NationallyandinWashingtonstatenewteacherscomprisea largersegmentoftheteacherworkforce than inpreviousyearsNationally12ofallpublicschoolteacherswere intheir first orsecondyearofteaching in 2014‐15(USDepartmentofEducation2016)InWashington statein2014‐15first and secondyear teacherscomprised107oftheworkforcebutthepercentageroseto116in2015‐16Inthelastsix years thenumberoffirstandsecondyearteachersmorethandoubledfrom3387 in2010‐11 to6918 in 2015‐16(seeTable4)

Table 4 Trend Data for First and Second Year Teachers

Total Number Teachers

Number 1st and 2nd year Teachers Statewide

Percent Teachers Statewide

2010-11 School Year

2011-12 School Year

2012-13 School Year

2013-14 School Year

2014-15 School Year

2015-16 School Year

Teachers with less than 20 years of experience

Whilestillnotalargeproportionoftheoverallworkforce theinfluxofnewteachersmaydifferentially impactdistricts andcanbe a substantiveissuewhenschoolsordistrictsexperiencehighlevelsofstaffturnoverItalsoraisesquestionsregardingadistrictrsquosabilitytoprovideadequatesupporttoincreasingnumbersofnew teachersWithoutadequatesupportnewteacherscanbecomepartoftheturnovercycle

Characteristics of beginning teachers

Since2010‐11thenumberofbeginning teachers(lessthan one year of experience)hasincreasedsteadily fromcloseto2000toover3500in2015‐16Asonemightexpectthemajorityenteringtheprofessionare betweentheagesof20and30(onaverage63)andon average 16wereovertheageof40During thistimeperiodthe statewidepercentage ofstudentsofcolorhasincreasedfrom387to 439whilethepercentage ofbeginning teachersofcolorincreasedfrom118to146ProportionatelybeginningHispanicteachershave experiencedthegreatestincreasesince2010 representing 63ofall beginning teachersin 2015‐16 TheproportionofWhiteteachersdeclinedslightlyasmostotherraceethnicgroupsincreasedor fluctuated slightlyoverthistime period(see Table5)AppendixBprovidesadditionalinformationaboutbeginningteachers during theseyears

Table 5 Characteristics of All Beginning Teachers Statewide from 2010-11 to 2015-16

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Number Teachers

RaceEthnicity AsianPacific

1960 1883 2412 2914 3372 3675

IslanderNative Hawaiian 38 40 42 38 40 36 BlackAfrican American 07 16 15 15 17 16 Hispanic American IndianAlaskan

50 59 51 41 57 63

Native 05 08 08 08 05 07 White (non-Hispanic) 882 853 862 879 861 854 More than one race

Age in given year

19 22 22 19 20 25

20-30 656 604 631 618 635 627 31-40 189 215 206 221 212 216 41+ 155 181 163 161 153 156

Numbers for 2015-16 are based on preliminary S275 data

Beginning teachers statewide (duty root 31 32 33 or 34) with FTE designation greater than 0 and based on an unduplicated count of teachers

B Trends in Statewide Retention and Mobility of Teachers

Theanalysesinthissectionincludefive‐year andalsoyear‐by‐yearretention andmobilitytrenddataAnnualteacherretention rates inWashingtonstatearesimilartoratesseennationallyabout 84ofteachersremainteaching intheirschoolfromoneyeartothenextThisisthe sameasthenationalaverage of84(GoldringTaieampRiddles2014 Marveletal2006)Howevertheseone‐year retentionstatisticshidechanges goingonoverthecourse ofseveral yearsndash namelythefluiditywithwhichteachersmovefromschooltoschoolandenter and leavethe workforce overtimeStatewide five‐yearretentionand mobilitystatisticsportrayarelativelystableworkforceinwhich59ofteachersareretained in thesameschoolaftera five‐yearperiodwith 20 exitingthe statersquosworkforceeithertemporarilyorpermanently(includingretirement)Amongtheremainingteachersproportionatelytwiceasmanymovebetween schoolsinthesame districtthantoanother district

Theanalysespresented invite furtherquestionsaboutdistrict andschoolconditionsthatmaybeimportant to consider whenexaminingdifferences in teacherretentionOtherfactorssuchasdeclining studentenrollmentschoolclimateschoolleadership parentalengagementandteacher assignment andtransferpoliciesmayallimpactteacherretention inaspecificschool

1) Statewide Retention and Mobility Trends Across Five‐Year Time Periods

Nearly60 ofWashingtonteachersarelocatedinthesameschoolafterfiveyears andthisretentionrate haschangedlittleinnearly15years Table6showsstatewideteacherretention and mobilitytrendsacross ninetimeperiodssince1998Approximately20ofteachersexit the workforce afterfive yearsandmanyoftheseteachersareof retirement ageOfthe remaining teachers14move tootherschoolswithintheirdistrict and7relocatetoanother districtwithin thestateConsequentlythislongitudinalanalysissuggeststhat anyperceivedstatewideshortageof teachersinrecent years isnotdueto recentchanges inthe statewideretentionmovementor attritionof teachers

Table 6 Statewide Teacher Retention and MobilityFive-Year Trend Data

Five Year Period Stayers in

School Movers in District

Movers out District

Exiters from WA system

199899 to 200203

199900 to 200304

200001 to 200405

200102 to 200506

200203 to 200607

200304 to 200708

200506 to 200910

201011 to 201415

2011-12 to 2015-16

Differences by district

Whilethestatewideportraitrevealsconsiderablestability theratesof teacherretentionandmobility forindividualdistrictsoften vary considerablyUsingthemostrecent five‐year trenddatawe lookedat thetenpreviouslymentionedsampledistrictswithstudentenrollments of10000ormoreThreeof the tendistrictsretainedteachersin thesameschoolatarate higherthan the state average(57) andsevenof thedistrictsretainedteacherseitherinthesame schoolorintheirdistrict(stayersandmoverswithindistrict)atrateshigherthan the stateaverage(71)overthefive‐yearperiodfrom2011‐12to2015‐16(seeTable7)

Table 7 Teacher Retention and Mobility in Select Washington Districts with Student Enrollment of 100000 or More

After Five Years (2011-12 to 2015-16)

Stayers in School

Movers in District

Movers out District

Statewide 57 14 8 21

Seattle

Spokane

Tacoma

Vancouver

Bellevue

Highline

Kennewick

Yakima

Bellingham

Central Kitsap

Retention and mobility of beginning teachers

Whileitis widelyknownthatbeginningteachersaremorelikely toleave theirpositionthanteachers withmore experience thetrenddataoverfour timeperiods verifiesthattherateofbeginnersrsquo retentionandmobility is relativelystablewith between42and47 retainedin thesameschoolcomparedto59 ofallteachersaftera five‐yearperiod (seeTable8)Ahigherproportion of beginningteachersmovebothwithindistrict(16‐18)ortoanotherdistrict(13‐19)comparedwithallteachers statewide (14and 7respectively)However therateofbeginning teachersexitingtheWashington workforcehasdeclined inthemost recent five‐year periodtoalowof21 similartoall teachersstatewide

Table 8 Statewide Beginning Teacher Retention - Five-Year Trend Data

Beginning Beginning Beginning Beginning Exiters

5 Year Period

Total Teachers Statewide

Total Beginning Teachers

Percent Beginning Teachers

Stayers in School

Movers in District

Movers out district

from WA System

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

200304 - 200708 55560 2344 42 991 423 399 170 347 148 607 259

200506 - 200910 56403 2849 51 1331 467 463 163 361 127 694 244

201011 - 201415 56222 1960 35 809 413 350 179 371 189 430 219

201112 - 201516 55277 1882 34 822 437 316 168 352 187 392 208

Washington state experienced a drop in the total number of teachers employed in 2011-12 school year

Regional variation in the retention and mobility of beginning teachers

WhileouranalysesofbeginningWashington teachersindicate thatmostare retainedintheirsame schoolor district after a five‐year periodthereis considerablevariation byregionInordertoexaminethismorecloselyweusedtheEducational ServiceDistrict(ESD)asaproxy forregion The nineESDsinthestatevary considerably in size andnumberofdistrictsandteachers andstudentsservedTable9revealsregionalvariation inbeginningteacher retentionandmobilityduringthe 2010‐11to 2014‐15periodDuringthistime period ESDs112and123hadthehighestratesof beginningstayersinschoolwhile ESDs171105and114 hadthehighestratesof exiters fromtheWashington education system

Table 9 Beginning Teacher Retention by ESD (Five-Year Trend Data 2010-11 to 2014-15)

ESD Total Teachers

Percent Beginning Teachers Number Percent

Beginning Stayers in School

Number Percent

Beginning Movers in District

Number Percent

Beginning Movers out District

Number Percent

Beginning Exiters from WA System

101 5236 145 28 55 379 34 234 29 200 27 186

105 3305 135 41 57 422 12 89 32 237 34 252

112 5267 174 33 80 460 34 195 22 126 38 218

113 4004 134 33 55 410 19 142 32 239 28 209

114 2646 72 27 26 361 5 69 23 319 18 250

121 21273 865 41 355 410 169 195 146 169 193 223

123 3582 154 43 69 448 27 175 24 156 34 221

171 2350 58 25 24 414 5 86 13 224 16 276

189 8557 223 26 86 386 45 202 50 224 42 188

Duty root 31 32 33 or 34 with FTE designation gt0 Beginning teachers is based on an unduplicated count of teachers with less than one year of experience

2) Year‐by‐Year Retention and Mobility Trends (10 years 2005‐06 to 2015‐16)

Statewide year‐by‐year trends

Inthissectionweexamine teacher retentionandmobility using one‐year intervals overthelastten years(2005‐06to 2014‐15) Thislevelof detailexplainssome teachermovement and whythereisoftenconfusionregardinghow retentionandmobilitystatisticsarereportedByexaminingtheteacherworkforceinone‐yearintervalsweseesimilarbutmorepronouncedpatterns ofmovementthan inthefive‐year timeperiod Forexamplefromone year tothe next onaverage84ofteachers are retained intheir sameschool7movetoanother schoolwithinthe

districtand2changedistricts(thoughthis numberhasincreased inrecentyears)Thepercentageofteacherswholeavetheworkforcefromoneyearto thenextisapproximately7(seeTable10)

Itshouldbe notedthatwhilewe provideaveragestatisticsfor the10‐yearperiodtheyear‐by‐yeardataisnotcumulativeandattemptstosumit wouldleadtoincorrectinterpretationsForexampletheone‐year interval dataindicatesthat7 ofteachers leavetheworkforce from oneyeartothenext Adding the 7annuallyoverfive yearswouldleadone to believe that 35ofthe workforce exitedafter five years The two‐pointintimedata indicates thatonly20 oftheworkforcehas actuallyexitedoverthe five‐year period

Whatthese statistics enableus tounderstandisthatsometeachersmaychangeassignmentsorleavetheworkforceforayearortwobutreturntothesameschoolordistrict within a givenfive‐year periodIn theshort‐termschoolsmaydealwithagreateramountofstaffmovementbutlongtermtheworkforcemaybemorestablethanone‐yearintervalswouldsuggest

Theyear‐by‐yeardescriptive statisticsalsoallowustoseehowtheteacher workforce mayhavebeen impactedbytherecenteconomicdownturnAswasthecaseinmanystatesinthespringof2009thousandsofteachersreceivedlayoffnotices in WashingtonInfacta portionofthefederalstimulusdollarsallocatedinthesummerof2009wasspecificallytargeted atreducing theneedfor teacherlayoffsWhileanumberofindividualswhoreceivedReduction inForce(RIF)notices are often re‐hiredin thesubsequentyearthelayoffprocessusuallyresultsinconsiderableshiftsinteacherdistribution andassignment particularlywithrespectto theemploymentstatus ofteacherswiththefewestyears ofexperienceTable10showsthatduringperiod fromthe2008‐09to2011‐12 proportionatelyfewerteachersmoved outofdistrictandinthe firsttwoyears fewer exitedthe workforce perhapsduetotheeconomicuncertainty

Table 10 Statewide Year-by-Year Teacher Retention and Mobility Trend Data

Year by Year Stayers in School

Movers in District

Movers out District

200506 to 200607

200607 to 200708

200708 to 200809

200809 to 200910

200910 to 201011

201011 to 201112

201112 to 201213

201213 to 201314

201314 to 201415

201415 to 201516

Ten Year Average 840 69 23 68

Beginning teacher year‐by‐year trends

Anexaminationofyear‐by‐yearbeginning teacherretentionand mobilitydata revealstrendssimilartothoseof teachersstatewide (see Table11) Themajorityofbeginning teachers(onaverage 71)stayintheirschoolfromoneyeartothenext11move within the districtand7moveoutofdistrictOnaverage12 exittheworkforceinthefollowingyear Fromthisdataonecanseehowthenumberofbeginning teachersintheworkforcedroppedduringthe economic recession periodof2008‐09 through2011‐12Ahigherproportionofbeginningteachersmoved fromoneschooltoanotherwithin theirdistrictduringtheseyearsand in2008‐09wesee aspikein thepercentageof beginning teacherswhoexited(18)which corresponds withthetimingofRIFnoticesstatewidein thespringof 2009

Table 11 Statewide Beginning Teacher Year-by-Year Retention and MobilityTrend Data

Beginning Teachers

Stayers in School

Movers in District

Movers out District

200506 to 200607

200607 to 200708

200708 to 200809

200809 to 200910

200910 to 201011

201011 to 201112

201112 to 201213

201213 to 201314

201314 to 201415

201415 to 201516

Ten Year Average 2471 705 105 69 121

Wealsoexaminedthe retentionmobilityand attritionpatterns ofteachersateachyearofexperienceoverthemostrecent five‐yearperiodtosee iftherewere changesafteracertain numberofyearsof experienceAswouldbeexpected teachers in thefirsttwoyearsof teaching representahigher proportionofexitersthanteacherswith3‐10yearsof experience(seeAppendixC)

Thedatais summarizedinTable12showingthepercentofexiterswithfiveorfeweryearsofexperienceandthe percentofexiterswith10orfeweryearsofexperienceGenerallyspeakingabout40of allexitershaveless than10years ofexperience andabout25ofallexitershavelessthan fiveyearsofexperience Theseanalysesare consistentwith otherstatisticswehaveexaminedovertheyearsForexamplewefind thatingeneralabouthalfofexitersarelikelyretireesaconclusionwediscussingreater detailinthe next section

Table 12 Statewide Trend Data Summary of Teacher Exiters by Experience in First 10 Years

201011 to 201112

201112 to 201213

201213 to 201314

201314 to 201415

201415 to 201516

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent All Exiters Statewide 3808 68 3470 63 3637 65 3983 70 4248 73 Teachers exiting with 5 or fewer years of experience 1036 272 845 244 790 217 891 224 1109 261 Teachers exiting with 10 or fewer years of experience 1689 444 1454 419 1418 390 1563 392 1815 427

C Factors Influencing Teacher Retention and Mobility

1) Teacher Experience

Teachermobilityisrelatedtothe experiencelevelofthe teacherNoviceteachers(lessthanfouryearsofexperience)moveandleaveathigherratesthantheirmoreexperiencedcolleagueswhileveteran teachesaremorelikelytoleaveoftendue toretirement Theexperiencepatternsfoundin otherparts oftheUnitedStates aresimilartothosefoundinWashingtonstateAmajorityofteachers fallinbetweennoviceteachersandthemostveteranandarethuslesslikely toleavetheirschoolChart5showsthatretention and mobilitypatternsvary considerablybyexperienceduringthe mostrecentfive‐yearperiod(2011‐12through2015‐16)

0‐4 Yrs 5‐14 Yrs 15‐24 Yrs 25+ years

Percent Teachers

Chart 5 Statewide Teacher Retention by Experience After Five Years (2011‐12 to 2015‐16)

Stayers Movers in district Movers out of district Exiters

Noviceteachers(0‐4yearsofexperience)and veteran teachers (25ormoreyearsofexperience)stayintheirschoolsatlowerrates(47and48 respectively)thanmid‐experienceteachers(5‐14years60 and15‐14years64) Veteranteachershavethehighestrates of exiting(44)comparedwith 20ofnovicesand13 and19ofmid‐experience teachersUnderstandingthe overall experience andage distribution ofastatersquosworkforcehelpsto accountforpatternsofteacherretention whilesignalingparticularaspectsthatmaymeritacloserlook

2) Exiters in Relation to Age

Closelyrelatedtoyears ofteaching experience teacher agealsoimpactsretentionChart6showsthefrequencydistributionofteacherexitersby agein 2014‐15Onecanseethatbyage58thereis adefiniteuptickinthe numberofteachersexitingwithpronouncedincreasesatages61and64

Chart 6 Teacher Exiters by Age in 2014‐15 300

0 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 76

Teacher Age

ByexaminingthoseteachersintheoldestagerangeswhoareleavingtheWashington education system(assumingthat fewindividualsleavetheWAsystem atthisageto takea newjobor raiseafamily)wecanestimatetheproportionthatareleaving duetoretirementAs wehaveseentrenddataoverthelasttenyearsshowsthatlessthan7oftheworkforceleavesinanygivenyearthoughthereissomevariation

Over thelastten years thepercentageof exitersage 55or olderhasincreasedfrom35in 2005‐06toahighof52in2012‐13Thepercentageof teacherexiters age

Number

of Teachers

60orolderhasshownasimilarpatternInthelasttwoyearstheproportionofexiters age 55orolder hasdeclinedslightly(seeTable13)

Table 13 Statewide Trend Data Teacher Exiters Age 55 or Older and Age 60 orOlder

Year by Year

Total Number of Exiters

Exiters from WA System

Number Exiters Age 55 or older

Exiters Age 55 or older

200506 to 200607 4191 74 1478 353 709 169

200607 to 200708 4391 78 1650 376 835 190

200708 to 200809 4113 72 1512 368 855 208

200809 to 200910 3456 60 1311 379 797 231

200910 to 201011 3223 58 1507 468 1084 336

201011 to 201112 3808 68 1783 468 1226 322

201112 to 201213 3470 63 1698 489 1254 361

201213 to 201314 3637 65 1877 516 1410 388

201314 to 201415 3983 70 1957 491 1484 373

201415 to 201516 4248 73 2054 484 1534 361

Whilestatewidestatisticsofteachercharacteristicsandretention and mobilityareanimportantpartof the story districtsandschoolsvaryconsiderablywithregardtootherfactorsNationalresearch suggeststhatteacherretentionalsoisrelatedto thecompositionof the schoolrsquosstudentpopulationndashinparticulartothepovertylevelandracialethnicmakeupofthestudents attheschool Insomecasesschoolpovertyretentionandschoolperformancearelinkedtooneanotherandpovertyrates arestronglyassociated with studentperformance Inthenext sectionwe considerpotentialfactorsassociatedwithteacherretentionandmobilitythroughtheuseof multinomiallogistic regression modelsforallteachersstatewide

3) Statistical Models of Retention and Mobility for All Teachers Statewide

Introduction to analyses models and datasets

Theanalysespresented inthissectionaimtoidentifyvariablessignificantly associated withthefourmutually exclusiveoutcomesofteacher retentionand mobilitydescribedearlier inthis reportexitingtheWashingtonstateworkforce (ldquoExitrdquo)movingfromoneschool district toanother(ldquoMOUTrdquo) movingwithinonersquosoriginalschooldistrict (ldquoMVINrdquo)orstaying as ateacherinonersquosoriginalschool(ldquoSTAYrdquo)ThefocalquestionisldquoWhatvariablesconsistently explain teacherretentionandmovementinWashingtonstaterdquo

Weconstructedmultinomiallogisticregression modelsusingSTATA 141softwaretoinvestigatetherelationshipbetweenourdependent nominaloutcomevariablesofinterest(egexiting movingoutofdistrict movingwithindistrict orstaying)andanumberofcontinuousandcategoricalindependent variablesTheindependentvariablesincludeddistrictschoolandindividual levelcharacteristicssuchasstudent enrollmentat the districtlevelthepercentageofstudents inpovertyattheschoolleveland full‐timeteachingstatusat theindividuallevelThevariablesusedin these analyses arelocatedinAppendicesDthroughGThetwo mainpopulations investigated includeallteachers(acrossall yearsof experience)andbeginningteachers (thosewithlessthan1yearof teaching experience)5

Weusedthreedistinct datasetsto investigate theretention andmobilityof teachers inWashingtonacrosstimeThe 2010‐11to2014‐15dataset(N=56222)consistedofallteachersstatewide during the2010‐11academicyearwhoseretention andmobilityoutcomesare analyzedfiveyearslaterinthe 2014‐15 academicyearAmorerecentfive‐year datasetfor 2011‐12to 2015‐16(N=55277)consistedof all teachersstatewide duringthe2011‐12academicyearwhoseretentionandmobilityoutcomesareanalyzed five yearslater inthe 2015‐16academic year

Analysis of all teachers statewide by retention and mobility outcomes

Wefirstpresent findingsfortheentiresampleofallteachers (acrossallyearsofexperience)notingconsistentpatternsthat emergedfromboth datasetsThecompletemultinomiallogisticregressionSTATAoutputforthe2010‐11to2014‐15datasetcanbefoundinAppendix DwhileAppendixEpresentsoutputforthe2011‐12to2105‐16timeframe

Exiters from the WA teacher workforce

Thefirstgroupdiscussedisteacherswhoexit fromtheWashington workforce AstheanalysesrunweremultinomiallogisticregressionseachoutcomeiscomparedtoareferencegroupStayinginthesameschoolfiveyearslater(stayer)wasselected as thereferencegroup sincethisoutcomerepresents themajorityofteachers in ourdatasetsSeeTable14for the descriptive statisticson teachers from bothfive‐yeartimeperiods

5 Withbeginning teacherswewereespeciallyinterestedinnot onlywhichvariableshelpedto explainretentionandmobilityoutcomes more generallybutalsowhetherthestatersquosBeginningEducator andSupport Team program(BEST) meant as an induction support for newteachershada significanteffect ontheobservedoutcomesAnalysisof retention and mobilityoutcomes for the BESTprogramare presented ina separatereport

Table 14 Statewide Retention and Mobility Outcomes for Two Five-Year Time Periods

Five-Year Period Total Number

Stayers in School Movers in District

Movers out District

201011 to 201415 56200 32723 582 8269 147 3708 66 11500 205

2011-12 to 2015-16 55277 31455 569 7834 142 4489 81 11499 208

AsseeninTable15mostindependentvariablesincludedinthe modelwereidentified assignificant predictors oftheExitoutcome(plt05)inbothofthefive‐year timeperiods indicating their individualcontributions to themodelsaboveandbeyondtheotherincludedmeasuresofdistrictschoolandindividuallevelcharacteristicsSomemodelsincludeyearsofteacherexperienceas wellassquaredyearsofexperiencetoreflectthenonlinearrelationshipofexperience withmobilityoutcomesForexample asillustratedinChart6likelihoodsofexitingare highernear theendsof theageexperiencerangeIncludingsquared yearsofexperienceallowsustomodelthistypeofnonlinearityUnless otherwisenotedonlystatisticallysignificantpredictorsthatexhibitconsistentpatternsacrossbothfive‐year timeperiods willbediscussedHowever noteverysignificantconsistentpredictorwillbediscussedItishopedthatby presenting anumberofdetailedexamplesthereaderwillbepositionedtoapplythesame interpretationprocesstoothervariablesofinterest

Table 15 Significant Predictors of Teacher Exit Outcome (as compared to Stayers) Relative Risk Ratios

Predictor significant at p lt05 More likely (gt1) = + Less likely (lt1) = ‐

2010‐11 to 2014‐15

(N = 54814)

2011‐12 to 2015‐16

(N=54297) Total District Enrollment_by 100 + + School White Students_by 10 minus (097) minus (096)

School Enrollment_by 50 minus minus Teacher Experience minus (089) minus (090)

Teacher Experience2

+ + Full‐time Teacher minus (045) minus (053) Teacher of Color minus (087) minus (091) Female Teacher + (134) + (129)

Masters or Higher Degree minus (083) minus (076) Western WA (outside ESD 121) minus (091) minus (091)

Eastern WA Region minus (081) minus (080) High School Grade Level + (126) + (120) Other School Grade Level + (132) + (122)

In this table coefficients are not listed if they are within plus or minus 002 of 10

Inthesemodelsthecoefficients arepresented asrelative riskratios(RRR)whichprovideameasureof theexpected changeinthelikelihoodofthefocaloutcomerelative tothereferencegroupfor everyunitchangeinthe predictor variableholdingallothervariablesconstantPredictorslessthan10 suggestadecreasedlikelihoodintherelativerisk ofteacherswith thatcharacteristic fallingintothefocaloutcomegroupascompared tothereferencegroupForexampleascomparedtopart‐time teachersfull‐time teachersdemonstrateon averagea decrease in therelativeriskofexitingfromtheteacherworkforcefive years later ascomparedtostayingintheirschoolsInthe2010‐11to2014‐15time periodafull‐timeteacherhaslessthanhalftherisk(045) ofexitingascomparedto a part‐timeteacher holdingallothervariablesinthe modelconstantWeseeasimilarresultinthe2011‐12to 2015‐16timeperiod wherethe relative risk ofafull‐timeteacherexiting teaching is expectedto decrease byafactor of053giventhe othervariables inthe modelareheldconstantMoregenerallyitcouldbesaidthat ifateacherisfull‐timeheor shewouldbeexpected tobeastayerratherthanan exiter

Regionallocationof a teacherrsquos schoolwasanotherconsistentlynegativepredictor ofexiting Holdingallothervariablesconstantteachers in Eastern Washingtonwerelesslikelytoexit(byafactor of080to081dependingontheyear)thantheirCentralPugetSoundpeers(referencegroup)LikewiseteachersinWesternWashington outsidethe CentralPugetSoundareawerealsoless likelythantheir

PugetSoundpeersto exitrather thanremain intheiroriginal schools(byafactorof 091across bothtimeperiods)

Ontheotherhandpredictorsgreaterthan10suggestanincreasedlikelihoodin therelativeriskofteacherswiththat characteristicfalling into thefocaloutcomegroupascomparedtothereferencegroupForexamplebeingfemale is associated witha13increasedlikelihoodofateacherexitingtheworkforcefiveyears laterascomparedtostayingin thesame schoolholdingallothervariablesconstantAsshowninTable15abovethisresultwasconsistentacrossboth timeperiodmodels Anothersignificantand strongpredictorofa teacherexitingfiveyearslaterascomparedtostayingwithinan individualrsquosoriginalschoolwas thegradelevelofschoolwheretheteacherworked Comparedtoelementaryschool teachersbothhighschool teachersandteachers working in ldquootherrdquoornontraditionalgradelevelschoolsexhibiteda12to13 increasedlikelihoodofexiting theworkforceas comparedtostayingwithintheir originalschoolsholdingall othervariables constantSeeTable16 forthedefinitionsusedtocategorize thegradelevelsofschoolswhereteachersworkedandtheproportionsofteachers working in eachtypeofschool

Table 16 School Grade Level Definitions and Proportions of Teachers by School Levels

School Grade Levels Definition 2010‐11 to 2014‐15 (N = 54814)

2011‐12 to 2015‐16 (N =54297)

Elementary School Schools serving any of grades K‐6 and none of grades 7‐12 494 (N =27791) 489 (N =27005)

Middle School Schools serving primarily any of grades 6‐9 191 (N =10759) 194 (N =10733)

High School Schools serving any of grades 9‐12 and none of grades K‐8 261 (N =14645) 262 (N =14466)

Schools serving one or more of grades K‐6 AND one or more of grades 7‐12 54 (N =3027) 56 (N =3073)

Movers from one district to another

Thesecond outcomediscussedisteachersmoving fromonedistrict toanotherThiswastheleastfrequent outcomeobservedwithonly7to8of teachersrepresentedintheldquomoversoutofdistrictrdquogroup(dependingon the year) As with theexiteranalysisdiscussedabovestaying asateacherinthesame schoolfiveyearslater(stayer)wasthereferencegroupTable17presentsthepredictorsoftheldquomoversoutofdistrictrdquooutcome foundtobestatisticallysignificantacrossbothfive‐year timeperiodsAscanbeseenbycomparingTable15toTable17manyofthevariablesfoundtobesignificantpredictorsof exitingwere alsosignificant predictors ofmovingtoanewdistrictalthoughthedirection of the predictor was notalwaysthesameForexampleteacherswhoheldastheirhighest degreea

masterrsquosor abovewere lesslikelytoexitthantostayascomparedtotheirpeersholdingabachelorrsquosdegree(coefficientsof‐083and‐076depending ontheyear)Howeverthesesameteacherswithadvanced degreesweremorelikelytomovetoateaching position in a differentschooldistrict ascomparedto theirpeerswithbachelorrsquosdegrees(coefficientsof124and 126dependingon theyear)

OntheotherhandcertainpredictorswerefoundtohaveaneffectononeoutcomebutnottheotherForinstance holdingallothervariablesconstantbeing ateacherofcolor(approximately10ofthestatewide teacherworkforce)as comparedtobeingaWhiteteacher wasassociatedwithadecreasedlikelihoodofexitingtheteachingworkforce(coefficients of‐087and ‐091depending on the year)Therewasnosuchobservedeffectofteacherraceethnicityon moving toanewschooldistrictLikewisewhilebeing femalewasasignificantpredictorofexiting(coefficientof13regardlessof year)genderof teacherwas foundnottomatterwhenitcametothelikelihoodofmovingtoa newdistrict

Similartotheresultsoftheexiter modelpresentedabovefull‐timeteacherstatuswasassociatedwithadecreased likelihoodofmovingoutofonersquosoriginaldistrict(coefficientsof‐063and‐080 dependingontheyear)indicating thatfull‐timeteachersweremorelikelytoremain intheir originalschools Regionwasalso asignificant predictor withteachersinWesternWashingtonoutside theCentralPugetSoundandEasternWashingtonlesslikelytomoveoutoftheir districtsthantheir CentralPugetSoundcounterparts(coefficients ranging from‐063to‐072dependingontheyearandregion) Finallyweseeanemerging patternbetweenthegradeleveloftheschoolwhereteachersworkandretention and mobilityoutcomes Highergrades(middleandhighschools)andldquootherrdquo configurationsofschoolsareassociated withmuch higherlikelihoodsofmovement out ofonersquosoriginalschool(coefficientsrangingfrom124 to226dependingontheyearand gradelevelofschool)

Table 17 Significant Predictors of Teacher Mobility Out of District Outcome (as compared to Stayers) Relative Risk Ratios

2010‐11 to 2014‐15 (N = 54814)

2011‐12 to 2015‐16 (N=54297)

Total District Enrollment_by 100 minus minus School Poverty_by 10 + (108) + (105)

School White Students_by 10 minus (096) minus (093) Teacher Experience minus (086) minus (089)

Teacher Experience2 + + Full‐time Teacher minus (063) minus (080)

Masters or Higher Degree + (124) + (126) Western WA (outside ESD 121) minus (067) minus (072)

Eastern WA Region minus (063) minus (065) Middle School Grade Level + (132) + (124) High School Grade Level + (141) + (141) Other School Grade Level + (226) + (189)

Movers within district

Thefinaloutcomediscussedisteachermovementwithin onersquosoriginalschool districtascomparedto thereferenceoutcomeofstaying withinonersquosownschool Thiswasthe thirdmostfrequently observedoutcomeafterstaying andexiting representing 14to15ofteachersstatewidedependingonthe yearTable18presentsthe predictorsofthemoversindistrictoutcomefound tobestatisticallysignificant acrossbothfive‐year timeperiods Compared toexitingandmovingoutofdistrictfewervariableswere foundtobeconsistently significant predictors ofateachermovement withinonersquosoriginalschooldistrict

Similartotheresultsoftheexiter andmover outofdistrict modelpresentedabove full‐timeteacherstatuswasassociatedwitha decreasedlikelihoodofmovingwithinonersquosoriginaldistrict(coefficients of‐051and ‐062dependingontheyear)indicatingthatfull‐timeteachersweremorelikelytoremainintheiroriginalschoolsRegionwas alsoasignificantpredictorwithteachersinWesternWashington outsidethe CentralPugetSoundandEasternWashington morelikely tomovewithintheiroriginaldistrict thantheirpeers teachingin theCentralPuget Soundregion (coefficientsranging from111to119depending ontheyear andregion)Finallyweseeagainthatteachinginschoolswithldquootherrdquoschoolgradeconfigurationsasopposedtoelementaryschoolswasassociated withadifferentialoutcomespecificallyteacherswho teachinldquootherrdquoschoolswerelesslikelytomove

within their districtthan toremain intheiroriginalschools five years lateraccountingforallothervariablesinthemodels

Table 18 Significant Predictors of Teacher Mobility Within District Outcome (as compared to Stayers) Relative Risk Ratios

2010‐11 to 2014‐15 2011‐12 to 2015‐16 (N = 54814) (N=54297)

Total District Enrollment_by 100 School White Students_by 10

School Enrollment_by 50 Teacher Experience Full‐time Teacher

Masters or Higher Degree Western WA (outside ESD 121)

Eastern WA Region Other School Grade Level

+ minus (095) minus (096) minus (095) minus (051) + (119) + (119) + (119) minus (083)

Tosummarizethreefactorsinour modelsconsistentlyappearaspredictorsofteacher five‐yearretentionand mobilityThese includedfull‐timestatusofteachers region ofthestateand gradeleveloftheschoolWeconductedasimilaranalysisforbeginning teachersusingmultinomiallogisticregression modelsThesefindingsare discussednext

D Statistical Models of Retention and Mobility for Beginning Teachers

Statewide retentionandmobilitypatternspromptacloserlook attheretention andmobilityofbeginningteachers Attritioniscommonintheearlystagesofmostoccupationsasindividualslearn abouttheworkplaceanddeterminewhetheror notthejobisagoodfit Howeverinductionintotheteachingprofessionis particularly important becauseteachingrequiresasignificant acquisitionofskillsinthefirstfewyears A highturnoverofbeginningteacherscan impactthequalityof instruction thatstudentsreceive

Beginningteachersareclearlyless rootedintheirschoolsthanotherteachersTheseteacherschange schoolsat ahigherrateoften toanotherschoolwithinthe districtManythingsmaycause beginning teacherstomovemorethanother teachersForsometeachingas awhole(orteachingatthisschool)is notwhattheythoughtitwouldbeButother forcesbeyondpersonal preference maycomeintoplayAsthestaffmemberswith theleastsenioritytheyare morelikelytobe

impactedbyareductionin forcechangesinenrollmentor schoolordistrict organizationalchanges

1) School Characteristics of Beginning Teachers

Inordertounderstandthevariablesusedin thestatisticalmodelsforbeginningteachersweincludeadescriptivelookattheirschoolcharacteristics in2010‐11Table19showsthatthe largest proportionof beginning teacherswerelocated intheCentralPugetSoundregion (44)and45workedattheelementaryschoollevelForty‐threepercentofbeginning teachersworked inschoolswithpovertyratesof 50ormoreEarlierin thisreportwepresenttheregionalvariation inretentionandmobility ratesofbeginning teachers(see Table9)Thestatisticalmodelstakeintoaccountregionaldistrictschoolandindividualleveldifferences

Table 19 School Characteristics of Beginning Teachers Statewide in 2010‐11

Teachers (Headcount) FTE Teachers

Region of the State ESD 112 (Southwest) ESD 113 (Capital Region) ESD 114 (Olympic) ESD 189 (Northwest) Central Puget Sound ESD 121 ESD101 (Spokane) ESD 105 (Yakima) ESD 123 (Southeast) ESD 171 (North Central)

School Level Elementary Middle School High School Other (eg PK‐8 1‐8 6‐12)

Poverty of School 0‐25 FRPL 26‐49 FRPL 50‐74 FRPL 75+ FRPL District locationnot reported

Student RaceEthnicity 0‐25 students of color 26‐49 students of color 50‐74 students of color 75+ students of color District locationnot reported

Number Percent 1960 NA 1732 NA

174 89 134 68 72 37 223 114 865 441 145 74 135 69 154 79 58 30

872 445 381 194 586 299 121 62

422 215 663 338 520 265 321 164 34 17

472 241 734 374 399 204 321 164 34 17

Duty root 31 32 33 or 34 with FTE designation gt0 Beginning teachers is based on teachers with less than one year of experience

2) Statistical Models of Beginning Teacher Retention and Mobility

Introduction to the analyses models and datasets

Thissection presents ananalysis ofretention andmobilityoutcomesforall beginningteachersstatewideAs wasthecaseinouranalysis ofallteachersthefocalquestionforthispopulationwasldquoWhatvariablesconsistently explainbeginning teachersrsquoretentionand mobilityin Washington staterdquo

Fortheseanalyseswe usedmultinomiallogisticregression modelssimilarthoseconductedforallteachersSpecificallyaswith theanalyses forallteachersweconstructed multinomiallogisticregression modelsusingSTATA 141softwareAsdescribedinapriorsectionof the reportmultinomiallogisticregressionallowsustoinvestigatetherelationshipbetweenourdependent nominaloutcomevariablesofinterest(egexiting movingoutofdistrict movingwithindistrict orstaying)andanumberofcontinuousandcategoricalindependent variables

Ourfirstanalysisfocusedonthe five‐yearcohort‐baseddatasetfor 2010‐11to2014‐15 Thisdatasetincludesteacherswhowere intheirfirstyear ofteaching in2010‐11(N=1960)Nextweconductedananalysisof thefive‐yeardataset for 2011‐12to 2015‐16whichincluded teachers whowereintheir firstyearofteachingin 2011‐12(N=1882)

Comparedtothemodelsforallteachersfewervariables were foundtobesignificant predictors ofbeginningteachersrsquoretentionandmobility outcomesresulting in leanerless complexregression equationsForinstance whilegenderof theteacher andteacher ofcolor statuswere in somecases foundtobesignificantpredictors ofthefive‐yearoutcomesforallteachersthesevariableswere not significant predictors ofbeginningteachersrsquooutcomesThecomplete beginningteachersrsquomultinomiallogisticregressionSTATAoutputbasedthedatasetforthe2010‐11to 2014‐15timeperiodcan befound inAppendixFwhiletheoutputofthedatasetfor the2011‐12to2015‐16timeperiodcanbefoundin AppendixG

Beginning exiters from the WA teacher workforce

Thefirstoutcomediscussedisthe exitofbeginningteachersfromtheWashingtonworkforce Aspreviouslydescribedsincethe analysesrunweremultinomiallogisticregressions eachoutcomeis comparedtoareferencegroupStayinginthesameschoolfiveyearslaterwas selectedas thereferencegroupasthisoutcomerepresents themajorityofbeginningteachers inourdatasets See Table20forthe descriptive statistics frombothfive‐year time periodsfor beginning teachers statewide whostayed intheiroriginalschoolsexitedfrom the Washingtonstate teacherworkforcemovedwithinthedistrict ormovedfromone districttoanother Comparison oftheretentionand mobilityoutcomesofallteachersversusbeginningteachersshowsthatwhilethefive‐yearexit ratesofbeginning teachersandallteacherswerevirtuallyidentical(214and 207respectively)thestaying rate ofbeginning teacherswas151percentagepointslower(425versus576for allteachers) Beginningteachersalsodemonstrateda relativelyhigher propensity formovement eithertoa newdistrict (189of beginning teachers versus74ofallteachers)ortoadifferentschoolwithin their originaldistrict(174ofbeginning teachersversus145ofallteachers)

Table 20 Statewide Retention and Mobility Outcomes for Beginning Teachers for Two Five-Year TimePeriods

Stayers in Movers out Exiters from WA

School Movers in District District system Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

201011 to 201415 56200 807 412 350 179 371 190 430 220

2011-12 to 2015-16 55277 822 437 316 168 352 187 392 208

AsseeninTable21lessthanhalf ofthe12 independent variablesincludedinthemodelforbeginningteacherswereidentified assignificantpredictorsofteacherexit(plt05)inthefirstfive‐yeartime period(2010‐11to2014‐15) Inthemorerecentfive‐year timeperiod(2011‐12to 2015‐16)onlyonevariablemdashteachingat ahigh schoolmdashwas foundtobeasignificantpredictorofexitingAlthoughdistrictlevelstudent enrollmentschoollevelproportions ofstudentpoverty and percentage ofWhitestudentswere notfoundto besignificantpredictorsoftheexitingoutcometheywereleft inthemodeltocontrolforthese importantmeasureswhichvary greatlyacrossthestate Asnoted abovewhen comparedtothe modelsforallteachers fewervariableswerefoundtobesignificantpredictorsofbeginningteachersrsquoretentionand mobility outcomesTherewasalsoless congruencein the findingsbetween thetwofive‐year timeperiods

Itispossiblethatwhilethevariablestowhichwehadaccess wereabletosignificantlypredict theretention andmobility outcomesofteachers acrossall experience levelsthere maybe measuresthathavenotbeenincludedherewhichwouldalsobeappropriate forpredicting theoutcomesofbeginningteachersInadditionwithsamplesizes30timessmallerthanforallteachersstatewidethebeginning teachermodelshadmuchlessstatisticalpower todetectsignificantdifferences thanthemodelsforallteachers

Table 21 Significant Predictors of Beginning Teacher Exit Outcome (as compared to Stayers) Relative Risk Ratios

2010‐11 to 2014‐15

(N =54814)

2011‐12 to 2015‐16

(N =54297) School Enrollment_by 50

Full‐time Teacher Middle School Grade Level High School Grade Level Other School Grade Level

minus minus (055) minus (151) + (167) + (205)

Not significant Not significant Not significant + (203)

Not significant

Aswiththe modelsforallteachers thecoefficientspresented areinrelativeriskratios(RRR)whichindicatetheexpectedchangeinthelikelihoodofthefocaloutcomerelativetothereferencegroupforeveryunitchangeinthepredictorvariableholdingallothervariables constant Predictorslessthan10 suggestadecreasedlikelihoodin therelative riskofteacherswiththat characteristicfallingintothefocaloutcomegroupas comparedtothereferencegroupForexampleascomparedtopart‐time beginning teachersfull‐timebeginningteachersinthe2010‐11to2014‐15dataset demonstratedonaverageapproximatelyhalftherelative riskof exitingtheteacherworkforcefiveyearslater ascomparedto stayingintheirschools(coefficientof 055)holdingallothervariablesconstantMoregenerally itcouldbesaidthatifabeginningteacherisfull‐timetheindividualwouldbeexpectedto beastayerrather than an exiter

Conversely predictors greater than10suggestanincreasedlikelihoodintherelativeriskofteacherswiththat characteristicfalling into thefocaloutcomegroupascomparedtothereferencegroupInthecaseofthe2010‐11 to2014‐15dataseteachofthe threeschoolgradelevelcategories listed(middle school highschool orldquootherrdquoschool)wasfoundtobe associated withanincreasedlikelihoodofexitforbeginning teachersas comparedtothereferencecategoryofteachinginanelementary schoolForinstance in themorerecent2011‐12to 2015‐16datasetteachinginahighschoolasa beginningteacherwas associated with twotimestheriskof exitingtheworkforcefive yearslater(coefficientof 203)See Table22fortheproportionsofbeginningteachersworkingineachtypeofschoolacrossbothtimeperiodsTheschoolgradelevelteaching assignmentsofbeginningteachersandallteacherswereverysimilarwithonlyslightlyhigherproportionsofallteachersworking inelementaryschoolsandslightlyhigherproportionsofbeginning teachersworking inhighschoolsHoweverwithalmostathirdofall beginning teachersworking inhigh schoolsatwo‐foldincrease inlikelihoodofexitfromtheworkforcecouldhaveimportant implications for teacher turnoverand schoolstabilityat thisgradelevel

Table 22 Proportion of Beginning Teachers by School Grade Level Assignment

School Grade Levels 2010‐11 to 2014‐15 (N = 1960)

2011‐12 to 2015‐16 (N =1882)

Elementary School

Middle School

High School

445 (N =872)

194 (N =381)

299 (N =586)

62 (N =121)

444 (N =836)

194 (N =363)

300 (N =564)

63 (N =119)

Asmentionedaboveunlikethemodelsforallteachers themajorityofvariablesincludedin thebeginningteacher exitermodelswerenot found tobestatistically

significant regardless oftimeperiodexaminedForinstance highest degreeheld wasnotasignificantpredictor and neitherwas regionallocation

Beginning movers from one district to another

Thesecond outcomediscussedisbeginningteachersmovingfrom onedistricttoanother As withtheexiter analysisdiscussed abovestaying asa teacherinthesameschoolfiveyearslaterwasthereference groupMovingtoa newdistrictfiveyearslater wasthethirdmostfrequentoutcomeobservedforbeginning teachersrepresenting approximately19of teachersinboththefive‐yeartimeperiodsexamined Unliketheearlieranalysisofallteachersstatewidewheretherewasarelativelylargedifferencebetweentheproportionofteachers whomovedwithindistrictandthosewhomovedto anewdistricttheproportions ofbeginningteacherswhomovedindistrictandthosewhomovedofoutofdistrictweresimilar

AsseeninTable23onlyonevariablemdashdistrictlevelstudent enrollmentmdashwasfoundtobeasignificantpredictor acrossbothfive‐year time periods Asdistrictlevelstudentenrollmentincreasedby100studentsthe likelihoodthatabeginningteacherwouldmovetoadifferent districtfive yearslater decreasedveryslightlysuggestingthepossibilitythatlargerschooldistricts are moreattractive tonewteachersor thatthey arebetterequippedinsomewayto keep these teachers in‐districtperhapsbecausetherearemoreschoolsfromwhichto chooseSimilartotheresultsfortheexitermodelseveralvariablesthatwerefoundtobesignificantpredictors forallteachersstatewidewerenot significant for thebeginningteachermodelswhenexaminingmoversout ofdistrictThesevariables includedfull‐timeteacherstatushighestdegree heldandregionallocation

Inthefirst five‐yeardataset for2010‐11to2014‐15thevariablecapturingschoollevelstudentpoverty wasasignificantpositivepredictor ofbeginningteachers movingtoa newdistrict fiveyears laterThisindicatesthat asschoollevelstudentpovertyrises10percentbeginnerteachersareonaverage111 timesmorelikelytomovetoaschoolinanewdistrictascomparedtoremaining intheiroriginaldistrictholdingallothervariables constant Thiseffectof school‐levelpovertyonbeginning teachersmoving toanewdistrictwasnotseen inthe morerecentfive‐yeardatasetfor2011‐12to2015‐16 6

Inthe2010‐11to2014‐15dataset twoadditionalvariableswere foundtobesignificant predictors ofbeginningteachersrsquomovement tonewdistricts1)theschool‐levelproportion ofWhite studentsand2)teachingatthehigh schoollevelAstheproportionofWhitestudentsinaschoolincreasedby10 percentthe

6 Oneofthevariablesincludedinthepredictivemodelsforbeginning teacherswaswhetherornot the teacherwaslocatedin a district that receivedfundingfromtheBESTprogramOnlyinthe2010‐11to 2015‐16 datasetdid BESTparticipationhavea significant effect onbeginning teachersrsquo likelihood of moving to a newdistrict Thisfindingalongwith other analysesrelated to the BEST programisdiscussed inaseparate report

likelihoodthatabeginningteacherwouldmovetoanew districtdecreasedslightly(coefficientof092)Compared totheirelementaryschoolcounterpartsbeginningteachers in highschoolsare171timesaslikelytomoveto a newdistrictholdingall othervariablesconstantThis likelihoodofbeginningteachersmovingoutofdistrictatthehighschoollevel wasalsoaconsistentfinding forallteachersstatewide

Table 23 Significant Predictors of Beginning Teacher Mobility Out of District Outcome (as compared to Stayers) Relative Risk Ratios

2010‐11 to 2014‐15 (N =1869)

2011‐12 to 2015‐16 (N =1747)

Total District Enrollment_by 100 School Poverty_by 10

School White Students_by 10 BEST District

High School Grade Level

minus + (111)

Not significant minus (051)

Not significant

minus Not significant minus (092)

Not significant + (171)

Beginning movers within district

Thefinaloutcomediscussedismovingas a beginningteacherwithin onersquosoriginalschooldistrictascomparedto the referenceoutcomeofstayinginthe sameschoolThiswasthe least frequentlyobservedoutcomeforbeginningteachersrepresentingbetween 168and 179ofall beginning teachers statewideAsseen in Table24onlytwoofthe12 independentvariablesincludedinthemodelfor beginning teacherswereidentifiedassignificantpredictorsof themoverswithindistrictoutcome(plt05)acrossbothfive‐year time periods1)districtlevelstudentenrollmentand2)regionallocationinparticularteachinginWesternWashington outsidethe CentralPugetSound

Asdistrictlevelstudentenrollmentincreased by100students the likelihoodthatabeginning teacherwouldmovetoadifferentschoolwithinheroriginaldistrictfiveyearslater increasedveryslightlyascomparedtothelikelihoodofteachersremaining intheiroriginalschoolsThissuggestsunsurprisingly that largerschooldistrictsmayoffermorepossibilitiesforassignmentchangesofbeginning teachersBeginningteachersin WesternWashington outsidethe CentralPugetSoundwere foundtobeapproximately15to19 timesmorelikely tomove withinintheir originaldistrictthan theirbeginningpeersin theCentralPugetSoundregion

Somedifferences emergedwhen examiningresultsforthetwodifferentfive‐yeartimeperiodsInthefirstfive‐year datasetfor 2010‐11to 2014‐15 full‐timeteacher

statuswas associated withlessthanhalfthelikelihoodofabeginning teachermovingtoa differentschoolwithinthedistrict fiveyearslaterascomparedtostayingintheoriginalschool(coefficientof048)holdingallothervariablesconstantInotherwordsfull‐timebeginning teachersweremorelikelytoremainintheiroriginalschoolsthantomovewithindistrictInadditionteachingat the highschoollevelwasassociatedwith a 058decreasedlikelihoodof abeginningteachermovingwithinthedistrictascomparedtostaying inthe originalschoolInthiscasebeginninghighschoolteachersweremorelikelytoremainintheiroriginalschool thantomovewithindistrict

Inthelater five‐year time period(2011‐12to 2015‐16)other significantvariables were found forpredictingmovers withindistrictTwoschool‐levelvariableswerefoundtobesignificant andnegativepredictorsofbeginningteacherswithindistrictmovementtheproportionofstudents inpoverty andtotalschoolenrollmentInbothcasesaspoverty(ortotal schoolenrollment)increased likelihoodofa beginning teachermovingwithin districtasopposedtoremainingat onersquosoriginalschooldecreasedHighestdegreeheldandteachinginldquootherrdquo schoollevelconfigurationswerealsosignificantand negativepredictorsof themover‐in‐districtoutcomeOntheotherhandteachinginEasternWashingtonas opposedtotheCentralPugetSoundregionwas associatedwithapproximatelytwicethelikelihoodofbeginning teachersmovingwithinthedistrictfive yearslater(coefficientof 199)

Table 24 Significant Predictors of Beginning Teacher Mobility Within District Outcome (as compared to Stayers) Relative Risk Ratios

2010‐11 to 2014‐15 2011‐12 to 2015‐16 (N =1869) (N =1747)

Total District Enrollment_by 100 School Poverty_by 10 School Enrollment_by 50

Full‐time Teacher Masters or Higher Degree

Western WA (outside ESD 121) Eastern WA Region

High School Grade Level Other School Grade Level

+ Not significant Not significant minus (048)

Not significant

+ minus (092) minus (096)

Not significant minus (069) + (191) + (199)

Tosummarizeresultsfromstatisticalmodelsexaminingretention andmobilityindicatethefollowingaboutall beginningteachersstatewide Theseresultsareconsistent forboththefive‐year timeperiods

Full‐timebeginningteachersare halfaslikelytoexitbuthighschool beginningteachersaretwiceas likelytoexit(ascomparedto staying inthe sameschool)

Highschoolbeginning teachersaremorelikely tomoveoutofdistrict ascomparedtoelementary beginning teachersBeginningteachers indistrictswithlarger student enrollmentareslightlylesslikelyto move outofdistrictAsthepercentofWhitestudents enrolledintheschoolincreases thereis aslightdecreaseinthelikelihoodthatabeginningteacher will moveoutofdistrict

Beginningteachersinlargerenrollmentdistrictsareslightly morelikelytomovewithindistrictwhilebeginningteachersinWesternWashingtonoutsideESD121are morelikely to movein districtascompared to beginning teachers in ESD121

IV Conclusions and Discussion

Theresults ofthisstudyillustrate thecomplexitiesinvolved inunderstandingteacher retentionand mobility Asisthecasethroughout the nation itis important torecognizethatteachermobility isasimportanta factor as teacherattrition That isinsome wayswhen ateacherleavesaschooltheschoolcanbenegatively impactedno matterwhethertheteacherlefttogotoanotherschoolinthesame districttoanotherdistrictorcompletelylefttheprofession

Whilethestatewideportraitof teachersrevealssubstantialconsistencyinturnoverratesover timethere areways in whichsignificant variation exists Differencesexistbyindividualteachercharacteristicsandbyschooland district contextsForexamplethe agingoftheteacher workforcecancreate additionaldemandfornewteachers resultingin a shiftinthe experience levelsofteachersandpromptingan increased needfor mentoring and supportofnovicesAdditionallyregionalanddistrictdifferencesexistand variationoccurs evenamongschoolswithin thesamedistrictForexamplewefindthatthegradelevelinwhicha teacher works(egelementary vssecondary)andwhetherateacherisfull‐timeor part‐timeconsistently impactretentionandmobilityDifferencesinteacherturnover alsoexistbylevelofteachingexperiencewithbeginningteachers beinglessrooted intheirschools

Policychangescan alsoimpactthe need forteachersinnumerouswaysForexampleaclasssizereductionpolicycanincreasethe needforadditionalteacherswhileeconomicforces prompting areduction intheworkforcecan impactthemovement andturnoverofteachersespeciallyforthosenewto the professionNewrequirements for teachercertification and teacher evaluationcanalsoimpact teachersrsquoviewsaboutremaining in theprofessionChangesin theleveloffiscaland

professionalsupportthatteachers receivealongwithchanging workingconditions inschoolscanalsoinfluenceteacherturnover Given the varietyof factorsinfluencing astatersquosabilitytoattractretain andsupportteacherswhopositivelyimpactstudentlearningpolicy responsesneedtobeinformedbydataandcraftedtoaddressvariationsthatexist

Thedata fromthisstudysuggestsseveralpolicy implications Inrecentyears therehasbeensubstantialdiscussionaboutaperceivedteachershortageincludingreportsofdifficulties in findingwell‐qualified teachersto fillvacanciesWhilewedonotdoubtthatthere are difficultiesincertain subjectandspecialtyareasandin particularregionsordistricts ourlongitudinal analysissuggests that anyperceivedstatewideshortageof teachersinrecent years isnotdueto recentchanges inthe statewideretentionor attritionof teachers Thisimplies that statestrategiesneedtobedifferentiatedand targetedinwaysthatrecognize the variation thatexists

There isalsoaldquomythrdquowhichhascirculatedwidelyin national conversations that ldquohalfofallbeginningteachersleave theprofessionwithin fiveyearsrdquo Wefind no evidence tosupportthatclaimOn thecontrarywefindthat inWashingtonstateonaverage overthepast20yearsonequarterofbeginningteachersexitthestatesystemeitherpermanentlyortemporarilyafterfiveyearsIn facttherateofbeginningteachersexitingtheWashingtonworkforcehas declined in themostrecentfive‐yearperiodtoapoint whereitis similartoallteachersstatewide

Onestatewidechallengethisstudydididentifywasthelackof racial andethnicdiversityin theteachingworkforceThisis a significant problemthroughoutthestateVery littleprogresshasbeen madein thepast20years in improving thediversityoftheteacherworkforce Whilesomedistrictshave increasedthediversityof theirteachersthere are districts thathaveseen anactual decreasein theproportionofteachersofcoloroverthepast20yearsOf particularconcernisthedecrease in theproportionofBlackAfrican‐American teachersstatewideStatepoliciesaimedat improving teacherdiversitycertainlyseemindicated

Anotherstatewideissuearticulatedbythisstudyistheincreaseintheproportionofnewteachersin Washington stateThenumberoffirstandsecondyearteachershasmorethandoubledsince2010‐11Thissuggests that theneedfor efficientandeffectiveteachermentoringand supportprogramsismorepronouncedthan it hasbeeninthe past

Thefindings fromstatisticalmodelsdescribed inthisstudypromptsomeadditional questionsforconsiderationbystateand localpolicymakersFirstforallteachersstatewidethereis arelationshipbetween full‐timestatusand retentionFull‐timeteachersaremorelikely tostay in thesameschoollesslikelytomovewithin districtoroutofdistrictand lesslikelytoexitThusfurtherinvestigationintothereasons whythisisthecasewouldbeaworthyendeavorSimilarlyfurtherinquiryintowhyhighschoolteachersare morelikely toexitormoveoutofdistrictorhowsubjectarea(egmathscienceELL)mayberelatedtoexitingisalsoindicatedItis

important to notethat thepoverty levelofthe schoolwasnot aconsistently significantpredictorof teacher turnoverFinallypolicies aimedataddressingteacher retentionshouldtakeinto accounttheregionalvariationthatexistsForexampleteachersinEastern Washington andthosein Western Washington outsidetheCentralPugetSoundarelesslikelytoexit Howeveritisalsoimportanttonote thatcertain regionsofthestateor certaindistrictsmayhave moredifficultyattractingteacherswhichisan issueworthyoffurtherinvestigation

Whilethisstudyprovidesacomprehensiveandlongitudinalanalysis ofteacherretentionandmobility includingfactorsthat mayimpactturnover rateswedo notexaminesomeotherrelatedissuesBasedonthefindings inthisstudyitisclear thatfurtherinquiryisneededtohelpdetermine whyteachersmakeparticularcareerdecisionshowschoolworkingconditionsandleadership impactcareerchoicesandhowtheadequacyandqualityoftheteacherpreparationpipelinecaninfluenceteacherretentionandmobility

References

AlbertShankerInstitute(2015) The state of teacher diversity in American educationWashingtonDCAuthor

BormanGampDowling N(2008) TeacherattritionandretentionAmeta‐analyticandnarrativereviewoftheresearch Review of Educational Research 78(3)367‐409

BoydDJGrossmanPLIngMLankford HLoebS ampWyckoff J(2011)Theinfluenceofschooladministrators onteacherretentiondecisions American Educational Research Journal 48303ndash333

BurkhauserS(2016)Howmuchdoschoolprincipalsmatterwhen itcomestoteacherworkingconditions Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysisonline first DOI103102016237371666802801‐21

ByrkASLeeVEamp SmithJB(1990)Highschoolorganization anditseffecton teachers andstudents Aninterpretive summaryoftheresearchInWJClune ampJFWitte(Eds) Choice and control in American education Volume 1 The Theory of choice and control in American educationPhiladelphiaFalmerPress

CowanJGoldhaberDHayesK ampTheobaldR(2016)Missing elementsinthediscussion ofteachershortages Educational Researcher 45(8)460‐462

EngelMJacobBandCurran C(2014)New evidenceonteacherlaborsupplyAmerican Educational Research Journal51(1)36‐72

GoldringRTaieSamp RiddlesM(2014) Teacher Attrition and Mobility Results from the 2012‐13 Teacher Follow‐up Survey (NCES2014‐077)USDepartmentofEducationWashingtonDCNationalCenterforEducationStatistics

GuinK(2004)Chronicteacher turnover inurbanelementaryschools Education Policy Analysis Archives 12(24)RetrievedFebruary132005fromhttpepaaasueduepaav12n42

HanushekEAKainJFampRivkinSG(2001) Why Public Schools Lose TeachersCambridge MANationalBureauofEconomicResearch

HarrisDN ampAdamsS J(2007)UnderstandingthelevelandcausesofteacherturnoverAcomparisonwithotherprofessions Economics of Education Review26325‐337

HenkeRRChoySPChen XGeisSAltMNampBroughmanSP(1997)Americarsquos Teachers Profile of a ProfessionWashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducation NationalCenter forEducationStatistics

HenkeRRZahnLamp CarrollCD (2001) Attrition of new teachers among recent college graduates Comparing occupational stability among 1992‐93 graduates who taught and those who worked in other occupations (StatisticalAnalysis ReportNCES2001‐189)Washington DCUS DepartmentofEducationNationalCenter forEducationStatistics

IngersollRM(2001a) Teacher turnover teacher shortages and the organization of schoolsSeattleWACenterforthe StudyofTeachingandPolicy

IngersollRM(2001b)Teacher turnoverandteachershortages Anorganizationalanalysis American Educational Research Journal 38(3)499‐534

IngersollRM(2003) Who controls teachersrsquo work Power and accountability in Americarsquos schools CambridgeMAHarvard UniversityPress

IngersollRMampMay H(2011) Recruitment retention and the minority teacher shortagePhiladelphiaPAConsortium forPolicyResearchUniversity ofPennsylvaniaandCenterforEducationalResearchin theInterestofUnderservedStudents University ofCaliforniaSanta Cruz

IngersollRampStrong M(2011)Theimpact ofinductionand mentoringprogramsforbeginningteachersAcriticalreviewoftheresearch Review of Educational Research 81(2)201‐233

IngersollRampKralikJ M (2004)Theimpact ofmentoring onteacherretentionWhattheresearchsays Research Review Education Commission of the States1‐23RetrievedonFebruary13 2005fromwwwecsorgclearinghouse50365036htm

JohnsonSampBirkeland S(2003)Pursuinga ldquosenseof successrdquoNewteachers explain theircareerdecisions American Educational Research Journal 40(3)581‐617

JohnsonSMKraftM AampPapay JP(2012)Howcontextmatters inhigh‐needschoolsTheeffectsofteachersrsquoworkingconditionson theirprofessionalsatisfaction andtheirstudentsrsquoachievement Teachers College Record 114(10)1‐39

JohnsonSMKardos SMKauffmanDLiuEampDonaldsonML(2004)Thesupportgapnewteachersrsquoearly experiences inhigh‐incomeandlow‐income

schools Education Policy Analysis Archives 12(61)RetrievedOctober282004fromhttpepaaasueduepaav12n61

KellyS(2004)Aneventhistory analysisof teacherattritionSalaryteachertrackingandsociallydisadvantagedschools The Journal of Experimental Education 72(3)195‐220

LankfordHLoebSampWycoff J(2002)Teachersorting and theplightofurban schoolsAdescriptiveanalysis Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis 24(1)37‐62

LoebSampDarling‐HammondL(2005)Howteachingconditions predictteacherturnoverinCaliforniaschools Peabody Journal of Education 80(3)44‐70

LortieDC (1975) Schoolteacher A Sociological StudyChicagoUniversityofChicagoPress

LuekensM TLyterD MampFoxEE(2004) Teacher Attrition and Mobility Results from the Teacher Follow up Survey 2000‐01 (NCES 2004‐301)USDepartmentofEducationNationalCenterfor Educational Statistics WashingtonDCUS GovernmentPrintingOffice

MacdonaldD(1999)Teacher attritionA reviewofliterature Teaching and Teacher Education15835‐848

MarvelJLyterDM Petrola P StrizekG AampMortonBA(2006) Teacher attrition and mobility Results from the 2004‐05 Teacher Follow up Survey(NCES2007=307)U SDepartment ofEducationNationalCenterforEducationStatisticsWashingtonDCUSGovernmentPrinting Office

MurnaneRSingerJ DampWillettJB(1988)TheCareer PathsofTeachersImplicationsforteachersupply andmethodologicallessonsfor researchEducational Researcher 17(6)22‐30

NationalCenter forEducationStatistics(NCES)(2003) Teacher Attrition and Mobility Results from the Teacher Follow‐up Survey 2000‐01JessupMDUSDepartmentofEducation

NationalCenter forEducationStatistics(NCES)(2005) The Condition of Education 2005NCES2005‐094 WashingtonDCUSGovernment PrintingOffice

Podgursky MEhlertMLindsay JampWanY(2016)Anexaminationofthemovement ofeducatorswithin and acrossthreeMidwest Regionstates

RonfeldtMLoebSampWyckoffJ(2013)Howteacher turnoverharmsstudentachievement American Educational Research Journal50(4)4ndash36

ShenJ(1997)Teacherretention andattrition inpublicschoolsEvidence fromSASS91 The Journal of Educational Research 91(2)81‐88

SmithTMampIngersollR M(2004)Whataretheeffects ofinductionand mentoring onbeginning teacher turnover American Educational Research Journal 41(3)681‐714

SutcherLDarling‐HammondLCarver‐ThomasD(2016)Acomingcrisisin thesupplydemandandshortagesin theUWPalo AltoCA Learning Policy Institute

TheobaldNDampLaineSWM(2003)Theimpactof teacher turnover on teacher qualityFindings fromfourstatesInMLPleckiampDHMonk(Eds) School Finance and Teacher Quality Exploring the Connections (pp33‐54)LarchmontNYEyeonEducation

USDepartmentofEducation(2016)Thestateofracial diversityin theeducatorworkforce Policyand ProgramStudiesServiceOfficeof PlanningEvaluation andPolicy DevelopmentWashingtonDCAuthor

WhitenerSDGruberKJLynchHTingos KampPeronaM(1997)Characteristics of stayers movers and leavers Results from the teacher follow‐up survey 1994‐95WashingtonDCUSDepartmentofEducationNational Center forEducationStatistics

Appendix A Demographic Characteristics of Washington Teacher Workforce 200506 to 201516

200506 Statewide

200607 200708 200809 200910 201011 201112 201213 201314 201415 201516

Student Enrollment 1013189 1026682 1031846 1038345 1036135 1041892 1043536 1050900 1056809 1075107 1084359

Teachers (Headcount) 56403 56620 56894 57282 56004 56222 55279 55772 56761 58246 59809 FTE Teachers 53615

Teacher Gender

53804 54103 54479 53349 53591 52760 53308 54407 56007 57628

Female 711 712 715 717 718 718 719 722 725 729 733 Male 289

Education

288 285 283 282 282 281 278 275 271 267

Bachelor 382 370 364 354 335 326 315 310 313 324 326 Master 600 610 620 630 648 657 667 672 669 658 657 Doctorate 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 Other 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 Unidentified 02

04 00 00 01 01 02 02 02 02 NA

20-30 154 156 155 149 131 128 121 124 130 142 150 31-40 242 246 249 253 258 259 258 257 260 260 261 41-50 262 255 250 251 253 255 261 264 265 265 268 51-60 299 297 291 282 282 277 272 265 256 246 237 61+ 43

Teacher Ethnicity AsianPacific IslanderNative

47 55 65 77 81 88 91 89 86 84

Hawaiian 25 26 26 26 27 25 25 25 26 27 28 African American 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 Hispanic 24 American

25 27 28 28 32 35 34 32 37 39

IndianAlaskan Native 08 08 08 08 08 08 07 07 07 07 07 White (non-Hispanic) 928 927 925 924 923 909 897 896 909 903 899 More than one race NA

Teacher Experience

NA NA NA NA 14 24 25 13 14 14

0-4 years 218 216 221 217 183 172 159 163 183 212 235 5-14 years 374 376 376 378 398 408 414 409 394 375 359 15-24 years 245 246 245 245 252 253 259 262 260 256 254 25 yrs or more 164 162 158 159 167 167 168 167 162 157 151

S275 duty root 31 32 33 or 34 with FTE designation greater than 0 in given year Preliminary S-275 data in 2015-16 48

Appendix B Characteristics of All Beginning Teachers Statewide from 2010-11 to 2015-16

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Beginning Teachers

1960 1883 2412 2914 3372 3675

IslanderNative Hawaiian 74 38 76 40 102 42 110 38 134 40 131 36 BlackAfrican American 14 07 30 16 36 15 43 15 58 17 57 16 Hispanic American IndianAlaskan

98 50 112 59 122 51 120 41 192 57 232 63

Native 9 05 16 08 19 08 24 08 16 05 26 07 White (non-Hispanic) 1728 882 1607 853 2079 862 2561 879 2900 861 3138 854 More than one race

Age in given year

37 19 42 22 54 22 56 19 68 20 91 25

20-30 1286 656 1138 604 1522 631 1800 618 2142 635 2305 627 31-40 370 189 405 215 496 206 644 221 715 212 795 216 41+ 304 155 340 181 394 163 470 161 515 153 575 156

Duty root 31 32 33 or 34 with FTE designation greater than 0 2015-16s numbers based on preliminary S275 data Beginning teachers statewide is based on an unduplicated count of teachers with less than one year of experience

Appendix C Statewide Trend Data Teacher Exiters by Experience in First 10 Years

201011 to 201112 201112 to 201213 201213 to 201314 201314 to 201415 201415 to 201516 Total Number of Exiters

Exiters from Exp Level

All Exiters 3808 68 NA 3470 63 NA 3637 65 NA 3983 70 NA 4248 73 NA Years Experience based on Prior Year

1 Year (lt1) 254 67 130 192 55 102 200 55 83 242 61 83 304 72 90 2 Years (10 to 20) 259 68 113 198 57 87 223 61 86 228 57 72 304 72 79 3 Years (21 to 30) 172 45 77 111 32 64 113 31 66 134 34 68 185 44 77 4 Years (31 to 40) 187 49 74 174 50 79 119 33 65 146 37 79 161 38 76 5 Years (41 to 50) 164 43 63 170 49 69 135 37 61 141 35 73 155 36 81 6 Years (51 to 60) 173 45 67 149 43 58 148 41 61 153 38 67 134 32 67 7 Years (61 to 70) 159 42 65 131 38 53 146 40 57 171 43 71 171 40 75 8 Years (71 to 80) 117 31 52 123 35 51 115 32 47 137 34 54 153 36 64 9 Years (81 to 9) 103 27 43 107 31 49 116 32 50 118 30 49 137 32 56 10 Years (91 to 10) 101 27 42 99 29 43 103 28 48 93 23 41 111 26 47

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

15 Appendix D Multinomial logistic regression STATA output for the Five‐Year Period 2010‐11 to 2014‐

mlogit ndYearMOB TotalEnroll_by100 stPoverty_by10 stWhite_by10 stYearEnroll_by50 cExpcExp FTteacherTchrOfColor iSex iHighestDegree iregion iSchlGradeLevel rr base(4)

Multinomial logistic regression Number of obs = 54814LR chi2(45) = 886304 Prob gt chi2 = 00000

Log likelihood = -55270088 Pseudo R2 = 00742

ndYearMOB | RRR Std Err z Pgt|z| [95 Conf Interval]------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------Exit TotalEnroll_by100 | 1000756 0001183 639 0000 1000524 1000988

stPoverty_by10 | 102286 0077903 297 0003 1007704 1038243 stWhite_by10 | 9661251 0075262 -442 0000 9514861 9809893

stYearEnroll_by50 | 987213 0018226 -697 0000 9836473 9907916 Exp | 894039 0038191 -2622 0000 886585 9015557

|cExpcExp | 1004593 0001184 3886 0000 1004361 1004825

|FTteacher | 4544454 0163093 -2198 0000 423578 4875622

TchrOfColor | 8663 0370151 -336 0001 7967064 9419727 |

Sex |Female | 1343919 0380817 1043 0000 1271315 142067

|HighestDegree |

MastersAndAbove | 8339544 0204842 -739 0000 7947571 8750848 |

region |Western WA | 914924 0291914 -279 0005 8594622 9739648 Eastern WA | 8146731 0296757 -563 0000 7585374 874963

|SchlGradeLevel |

Middle | 104243 0346068 125 0211 9767617 1112514 1259199 052368 554 0000 1160632 1366138 1317784 0679192 535 0000 1191168 1457859

8967334 0840211 -116 0245 7462914 1077502 ------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------MOUT |TotalEnroll_by100 | 9970068 0002098 -1425 0000 9965957 997418

|cExpcExp | 1002105 0002721 774 0000 1001571 1002638

|FTteacher | 6276394 0343519 -851 0000 5637964 6987118

TchrOfColor | 9354061 0575522 -109 0278 8291417 1055289 |

Sex |Female | 9938611 041679 -015 0883 9154389 1079001

|HighestDegree |

MastersAndAbove | 1239848 048719 547 0000 1147945 1339109 |

|SchlGradeLevel |

Middle | 1318528 0661357 551 0000 1195072 1454737 1412655 0879314 555 0000 1250411 1595951

| 2257246 1585304 1159 0000 1966969 2590361 |

_cons | 7861725 1134798 -167 0096 5924497 104324 ------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------MVIN

High |Other |

|_cons |

High |Other

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TotalEnroll_by100 | 1001664 0001271 1310 0000 1001415 1001913 stPoverty_by10 | 1021123 0083427 256 0011 1004902 1037606

stWhite_by10 | 9500674 0078385 -621 0000 9348278 9655554 stYearEnroll_by50 | 9635378 0021406 -1672 0000 9593514 9677425

Exp | 9496153 0050407 -974 0000 9397869 9595466 |

cExpcExp | 1000632 0001688 374 0000 1000301 1000962 |

FTteacher | 5144645 0203328 -1682 0000 4761173 5559001 TchrOfColor | 1070405 0462587 157 0115 9834732 1165021

|Sex |

Female | 1067377 0337852 206 0039 1003172 1135692 |

HighestDegree |MastersAndAbove | 1185161 0337444 597 0000 1120835 1253179

|region |

Western WA | 1193473 0435241 485 0000 1111145 1281902 Eastern WA | 1189756 0481917 429 0000 1098954 128806

|SchlGradeLevel |

Middle | 1088651 0384028 241 0016 1015926 1166582 High | 9882896 0463831 -025 0802 9014363 1083511

Other | 8310966 0512192 -300 0003 7365349 9377989 |

_cons | 8543695 0864838 -155 0120 7006202 1041859 ------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------STAY | (base outcome)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

16 Appendix E Multinomial logistic regression STATA output for the Five‐Year Period 2011‐12 to 2015‐

|cExpcExp | 1004351 0001172 3720 0000 1004121 1004581

|FTteacher | 5292018 0192482 -1750 0000 4927894 5683048

TchrOfColor | 9142447 03731 -220 0028 8439664 9903751 |

Sex |Female | 1293561 036458 913 0000 1224042 1367028

|HighestDegree |

|SchlGradeLevel |

Middle | 1002406 033348 007 0942 9391305 1069945 1204395 049734 450 0000 1110758 1305925 1222591 0625774 393 0000 1105893 1351604

1032319 0950146 035 0730 8619247 1236399 ------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------MOUT TotalEnroll_by100 | 9974021 000184 -1410 0000 9970414 9977629

|cExpcExp | 1001136 0002524 450 0000 1000642 1001631

|FTteacher | 8016466 0423585 -418 0000 7227798 8891191

TchrOfColor | 8785621 0488496 -233 0020 7878511 9797172 |

Sex |Female | 1008737 0391317 022 0823 9348837 1088425

|HighestDegree |

|SchlGradeLevel |

Middle | 1236695 0570653 460 0000 1129757 1353754 1413863 0796965 614 0000 126598 1579021

| 1893642 1258571 961 0000 1662358 2157105 |

_cons | 9464223 122803 -042 0671 7339007 1220485 ------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

High |Other |

|_cons |

High |Other

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MVIN TotalEnroll_by100 |

stPoverty_by10 |stWhite_by10 |

stYearEnroll_by50 |Exp |

|cExpcExp |

|FTteacher |

TchrOfColor ||

Sex |Female |

|HighestDegree |

MastersAndAbove ||

region |Western WA |Eastern WA |

|SchlGradeLevel |

Middle |

100139 1010542 9319913 9738464 9674792

1000067

6203416 1200782

1018888

1163818

1142252 1113187

1005505 7318878

000124 0079618 0076403 0022194 0052506

0001719

0255017

0488825

0324565

0337264

0417455

0446338

0357524

0363466

1121 133

-859 -1163 -609

-1162 449

364 267

015 -629

0000 0183 0000 0000 0000

0000 0000

0000 0007

0877 0000

1001146 9950571 9171361 9695062 9572429

9997304

5723197 1108696

9572191

1099558

1063294 1029056

9378173

6640069

1001633 1026268 947087

9782061 977825

1000404

6723928 1300516

1084529

1231834

1227073 1204197

1078077 806708

_cons |

7851035

8212568

0486148

0826301

6953752

6742734

8864098

1000281 ------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------STAY | (base outcome)

|Other

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

High |Other |

|_cons |

Appendix F Beginning teachersrsquo multinomial logistic regression STATA output for the Five‐Year Period 2010‐11 to 2014‐15

mlogit ndYearMOB TotalEnroll_by100 stPoverty_by10 stWhite_by10 stYearEnroll_by50 BEST FTteacheriHighestDegree iregion iSchlGradeLevel if Explt1 rr base(4)

stYearEnroll_by50 | 9810246 0087239 -215 0031 9640742 9982731 BEST | 8887739 1475043 -071 0477 6419816 1230439

FTteacher | 5495029 0797903 -412 0000 4134011 7304127 |

HighestDegree |MastersAndAbove | 9714987 1268649 -022 0825 7521189 1254868

|region |

|SchlGradeLevel |

Middle | 1509534 260555 239 0017 1076268 2117218 1666237 327991 259 0009 1132874 245071 2053513 5192258 285 0004 1251046 3370713

9259161 3833946 -019 0853 4112578 2084631 ------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------MOUT TotalEnroll_by100 | 9982849 0006899 -248 0013 9969337 999638

stPoverty_by10 | 1112775 0490008 243 0015 1020763 1213081 stWhite_by10 | 1064482 0448433 148 0138 9801209 1156103

FTteacher | 8805276 1404495 -080 0425 6441265 120369 |

|region |

Western WA | 9599843 1788698 -022 0827 6662901 1383136 Eastern WA | 7704092 155849 -129 0197 5182373 1145287

|SchlGradeLevel |

Middle | 1173661 2128095 088 0377 8226247 1674493 High | 1382724 2813193 159 0111 9280177 2060227

Other | 9557703 2854044 -015 0880 5323223 171606 |

_cons | 3193178 146347 -249 0013 1300491 7840408 ------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------MVIN TotalEnroll_by100 | 1003683 0006182 597 0000 1002472 1004895

stPoverty_by10 | 997246 0433431 -006 0949 9158128 108592 stWhite_by10 | 9948869 0438398 -012 0907 9125685 1084631

FTteacher | 4784454 0749579 -471 0000 3519451 650414 |

|region |

|SchlGradeLevel |

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Middle | 8584752 1611692 -081 0416 5941884 1240313 High | 5752229 1398726 -227 0023 3571543 9264381

Other | 727954 2252379 -103 0305 3969463 1334984 |

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Appendix G Beginning teachersrsquo multinomial logistic regression STATA output for the Five‐Year Period 2011‐12 to 2015‐16

ndYearMOB | RRR Std Err z Pgt|z| [95 Conf Interval]------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------Exit TotalEnroll_by100 | 9994915 0005702 -089 0373 9983745 100061

FTteacher | 920253 1343461 -057 0569 6912607 1225103 |

|region |

|SchlGradeLevel |

Middle | 1376894 255258 173 0084 9574119 1980168 High | 2029156 4238936 339 0001 1347405 3055854

Other | 1603549 4290377 176 0078 9491586 2709103 |

_cons | 7915287 3446555 -054 0591 3371536 1858256 ------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------MOUT TotalEnroll_by100 | 9978332 0006529 -331 0001 9965544 9991138

FTteacher | 1065278 1679229 040 0688 7821415 1450909 |

|region |

|SchlGradeLevel |

Middle | 142895 2695439 189 0058 9873113 2068139 High | 1713301 3748545 246 0014 1115832 2630684

Other | 1429511 4060158 126 0208 8192671 2494304 |

_cons | 1088647 4848232 019 0849 4547878 2605944 ------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------MVIN TotalEnroll_by100 | 1002218 0005986 371 0000 1001045 1003392

FTteacher | 8695848 1403713 -087 0387 6337356 1193207 |

|region |

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SchlGradeLevel |Middle | 1065703 2039161 033 0739 7324257 1550632

High | 6832319 1744891 -149 0136 4141728 112708 Other | 5029484 16958 -204 0042 2597301 9739231

|_cons | 8430706 375116 -038 0701 3524766 2016497

------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------STAY | (base outcome)

Structure Bookmarks