International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal

Understanding risks and its

transboundary nature in

the Hindu Kush Himalayas

A presentation based on the HIMAP report chapter prepared by: Ramesh

Ananda Vaidya, Mandira Singh Shrestha, Nusrat Nasab, Deo Raj Gurung,

Kozo Nagami, Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Robert James Wasson, Arun

Bhakta Shrestha, Chanda Gurung Goodrich, Ajay Bajracharya.

Neera Shrestha Pradhan, PhD, MSc, BE (Civil)

Programme Coordinator- Integrated Water Resources

Management for Livelihood Development

Water and Adaptation Specialist

neera.pradhan@icimod.org

Disaster statistics from 1990-2012in the HKH region

Cum

ula

tive d

isaste

r eve

nts

The region has had an average of 76 disaster events each year.

Source: EM-DAT – The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

Mountain communities in the HKH

live in a multi-hazard environment

Number of events Economic Losses

Source: EM-DAT; 1980-2015 (cumulative)

People killed

On average, more than 36,000 people are killed and 178 million affected each year due to natural disasters in the region.

Type of hazardOccurrence

Primary Secondary

Earthquake Landslides 2005 Kashmir earthquake in Pakistan and

India

2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal

Landslide Landslide dam and

subsequent

outburst flood

2014 Nepal: Jure landslide that dammed

the Sunkoshi river

Landslide dam and

subsequent

outburst flood

2010 Pakistan: Hunnza Attabad landslide

Landslide dam and

subsequent

outburst flood

2008 China: Landslide-dammed lake at

Tangjiashan, Sichuan province

Flood Erosion& deposition 2008 Koshi floods in Nepal, India

Primary hazards may be geophysical or

hydrometerological-may trigger secondary hazards

When disasters hit the HKH, they

affect more women than men

• During the 1991 cyclone in Bangladesh, the

mortality rate for women was three times higher

than for men (UNEP 1997; Twigg, 2009)

• During the 2015 Nepal earthquake, more women

than men died in all the affected districts except

Kathmandu (Golam et al., 2015)

• Records of natural disasters in the Himalayan

region over the last few decades show that

women are at greater risk of dying than men

(Mehta, 2007)

Koshi,Nepal Flood, 2008

This is the result of women’s lack of information, mobility, decision-making

power, and access to resources and training, as well as gender-based

sociocultural norms and barriers, conventional gender responsibilities, and

high rates of male outmigration.

Increasing trend of disasters in the

HKH is threatening sustainable

development

Source: EM-Dat Database

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

Eco

no

mic

loss (

US

$ in

mill

ion

s)

Num

be

r o

f e

ve

nts

re

po

rte

d

Economic loss of US$597 billion

occurrence total damage

• Climate change is magnifying risks and increasing disaster

losses (UNISDR 2015): Need for regional cooperation

Transboundary rivers –

shared vulnerability across borders

Globally, 10% of all

floods are

transboundary, and

they cause over 30%

of all flood casualties

and account for close

to 60% of all those

displaced by floods. Source: Bakker, 2006

Frequency People impacted

Source: Ilalem and Pal, 2014 Source: Nellemann et al., 20111

One-third of the natural disasters

are floods

am

eri

can

.ed

u/t

ed

/IC

E/t

era

i.h

tml

Koshi - 2008

Some recent floods in HKH

rev

intc

an

.files.w

ord

pre

ss.c

om

Indus - 2010

htt

p:/

/ww

w.t

ele

gra

ph

.co

.uk/

Assam - 2013

htt

p:/

/ww

w.d

elh

idailyn

ew

s.c

om

/

Baghlan - 2014

Ind

iaL

oo

kU

p.in

Uttarakhand -

2014Nepal, Bihar -

2017

htt

p:/

/im

gu

r.co

m/g

allery

/K3R

kh

Key issues (related to flood)

• A diversity of technical, scientific,

and institutional capacity exists

in the region;

• There is limited exchange of

real-time data especially across

national boundaries to increase

lead time;

• The integration of risk

information into EWS is still

weak;

• Investment in EWS is low and of

less priority;

• There are opportunities for

sharing knowledge, experiences

and know-how.

HKH-HYCOS: Setting up monitoring

stations and establishment of real-time

flood information systems

‘Making Information Travel Faster Than Flood Waters’

Establishment of a Regional

Flood Information System in the

HKH-Region - Timely exchange of

flood data and information through

an accessible and user friendly

platform

HYCOS is a vehicle for technology transfer,

training, and capacity building

Regional flood outlook

• Setup of a real-time forecasting system for Ganga-

Brahmaputra Basin

• 21 nodes included for flood outlook in GB- basin with 3

days lead time

Community based flood early warning system

UNFCCC’s Momentum for Change 2014 Lighthouse Activity

Award Winning Initiative

1.Implemented in river tributaries

2.Upstream/downstream linkage

3.Almost real time information

4.Provide guidance on how to act

5.Use of low cost ICT tools

Immediate Impact on the groundAssam, India

“I have a hatchery and harvest fingerlings for livelihood. That one

hour of early flood warning makes all the difference to ensure that my

investments are safe.” Osman Ali, Barsola 2

“After the instrument was installed we have peaceful sleep because

of the early flood information, which gives us enough time to take

action to save our assets even at night.” Local resident, Barsola 2

“My fellow villagers like me because I am the source of all the

information. I feel important now and panchayat also listens to

me.” Mrs. Hoonmoni Doley, Caretaker, Dihiri

Saved assets, including livestock, worth approximately USD 3,000

Sept 2013, Dihiri

4.

RESPONSE

CAPABILITY AND

RESILIENCE

Enhance

community

response

capabilities and

build resilience

1.

RISK

KNOWLEDGE

AND SCOPING

Systematically

collect data and

undertake risk

assessments and

scoping

2.

COMMUNITY

BASED

MONITORING

AND EARLY

WARNING

Install early

warning

instrument and

flood monitoring

by upstream

communities

3.

DISSEMINATION

AND

COMMUNICATION

Communicate

flood information

by upstream and

provide early

warnings to

downstream

communities

Source: Based on UNISDR, 2006, http://www.unisdr.org/2006/ppew/whats-ew/basics-ew.htm

Four elements of CBFEWSMore than just a prediction…

(1) Wireless community based flood early

warning system

Afghanistan

Nepal

Function

Transmitter

Unit

Receiver

Unit

(2) Community based flood early warning system

with telemetry

Transmitter Unit

Alarm

Receiver Unit

10/31/2017 20

Conceptual diagram

Nepal

India

Before flood After flood in Bardibas

Livestock shifted to safer places

School building serving as shelter

Flood situation in Bhittamore, Bihar

12 August 2017, Ratu RiverAn example of local level cross border cooperation between Nepal and India

A vision for mountain DRR to complement

Sustainable Development Goals 2030

To complement the relevant formal

SDGs, we propose the following

vision for mountain DRR:

• By 2030, build resilience and

reduce deaths from natural

disasters in mountain regions

substantially through informed

decision making and enhanced

preparedness.

Source: http://www.futurewater.nl

1. Reduce economic loss, human deaths, and the number of people

affected due to disasters and extreme climate events, especially for

women and children [SDG 5, 13].

2. Make human settlements and habitats safe, inclusive, resilient, and

sustainable through laws, education, capacity building, better zoning

and building regulations, and a multi-hazard risk reduction approach

[SDG 9, 11, 13].

3. Assure protection from exposure to extreme events such as floods and

droughts [SDG 1, 13].

4. Provide access to DRR and mitigation measures, including finance and

technology, with the knowledge and capacity building needed to use

them [SDG 13].

Four targets to support the mountain DRR

vision

Source: https://watchers.news

Thank you