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UNDERSTANDING PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS IN LANGUAGEUNDERSTANDING PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS IN LANGUAGE Psycholinguistic data on how speakers assess the probability of events based Psycholinguistic data on how speakers assess the probability of events based
on linguistic indicatorson linguistic indicators
OPERATIONAL TASKElicitation of an operative judgment: deciding on a degree of adherence to a proposed path of reaction to an every-day life scenario with minimal context and a linguistically marked degree of probabilityContrast: Elicitation of an operative judgment based on a linguistically marked affective evaluation
Valentina Bambini - Alexandra Kratschmer Laboratory of Linguistics, Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa, IT
Institute of Language, Literature and Culture, Univ. of Aarhus, DKCognition, Communication and Culture Research Cluster, Univ. of Aarhus, DK
CHANCE TASKElicitation of a probability judgment: deciding on a percentage of chance of realization of an every-day life scenario with minimal context and a linguistically marked degree of probabilityContrast: Elicitation of a probability judgment based on a linguistically marked affective evaluation
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THE OBJECT OF STUDY: EPISTEMIC MODALITY • Epistemic modality is a semantic-pragmatic domain expressing the speaker’s evaluation of the probability of a state of affairs• Languages of the world mark epistemic judgments in both grammar and the lexicon, e.g. , John must be at home; John is probably at home, I suppose that John is at home (Venier, 1991; Squartini, 2008; Cappelli, 2007)• Epistemic judgments are modulated by means of grading expressions, going from certainty that the state of affairs applies via a neutral or agnostic stance towards its occurrence, to certainty that it does not apply, with intermediate positions (Nuyts, 2001)
WHY STUDY EPISTEMIC MODALITY?• Evaluating the likelihood of a state of affairs is not just a linguistic task. It relates directly to the way we perceive, memorize, and act in the physical and social world we live in. It taps a crucial dimension of our mental activities, viz. our capacity to reflect on our knowledge and our reasoning with it, i.e. our capacity to metarepresent (Nuyts, 2001)• The range of epistemic abilities in humans: probability judgment and epistemic vigilance in children (Téglás et al., 2007; Mascaro & Sperber, 2008); probabilistic reasoning (Girotto & Johnson-Laird, 2004)
BEHAVIOURAL INVESTIGATION: AIMS• Does epistemic modality have a psychological reality? Namely:
• Can epistemic modality be isolated from other modal domains?• Are epistemic distinctions really distinct, i.e. processed as different and with different costs?
Subjects: 36Stimuli: 24 passages, 6 variantsI spoke with the doctor. It’s probable that the virus will spread at wide range.Shall we get vaccinated?Variants: sure/probable/possible/improbable/impossible/terrible5 response options, from yes to no
+500 ms
1500 ms
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1500 ms
Total Time 10500 m
s
I spoke with the doctor.
It is probable that the virus willspread.
max 4500 ms
untilcompl
Shall we get vaccinated?
TEND. YES
YES DONT’KNOW NO
TEND. NO
+500 ms
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Total Time 9500 m
s
I spoke with the doctor.
It is probable that the virus willspread.
max 3500 ms
untilcompl
CHANCE?
75%100% 0% 50%
25%
[email protected] [email protected]
BEHAVIORAL DESCRIPTION OF PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS VIA LANGUAGE• Epistemic modality is distinguished from other modal domains• Epistemic distinctions in the lexicon correspond to processing distinctions, with different costs• Epistemic processes are not confined to contexts containing epistemic markers, but may be part of other kind of meaning construction, e.g., the literal/non-literal assessment (Cfr. POSTER BY KRATSCHMER & BAMBINI)
Subjects: 36Stimuli: 24 passages, 6 variantsI spoke with the doctor. It’s probable that the virus will spread at wide range.Chance of realization?Variants: sure/probable/possible/improbable/impossible/terrible5 response options, from 100% to 0%
Response types• The lexical epistemic scale modulates chance evaluation (vs the affective condition)• Epistemic distinctions are indeed processedResponse times• Different degrees of difficulty according to linguistic modulation (higher in the centre of the epistemic scale)
Response types• The lexical epistemic scale modulates operational choice (vs the affective condition)• Epistemic distinctions are indeed processedResponse times• Different degrees of difficulty according to linguistic modulation (higher in the centre of the epistemic scale)
