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“Understanding potential conflicts among sectors due spatial and seasonal water use and availability in Bali, Indonesia”
Eva Mia Siska
Supervisors:
Prof. Dr. Kaoru Takara
Assoc. Prof. Takahiro Sayama
UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium onIntra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management15-16 November 2017, Quezon City, Philippines
1
Contents of presentation
• Problem Statement
• Study context
• Methodology
• Results
o Water demand
o Water supply
• Conclusions2
Economic growth and water reallocation
3
Population Growth Urbanization
Industrialization Economic diversification
Hydrological variation have less impact during dry season
Less population, modest lifestyle (less water per capita)
Less water user, simpler water management, less conflict
Hydrological variation have bigger impact during dry season
Larger area same water amount
More people, water consumptive lifestyle
Modern water supply More farmers,
Higher lifestyle, more crops per year
Different water users with higher economic value (more cash per drop)
Clean water competition between tourism and locals
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
1900 1940 1950 1960 1970 1975 1980 1990* 2000*
Agriculture Industry Municipal Reservoirs
Water withdrawal in the world (km3/year) (Shiklomanov, 1993)*) Estimation
Economic growth and water reallocation
• Industrialization and urbanization are currently taking place in most of developing
countries in the world. Inevitably, water transfers to the growing urban centers and
inter-sectorial water allocation are likely to happen (Komakech, Van Der Zaag, & Van
Koppen, 2012; Wang, Fang, & Hipel, 2003);
• “Water is too often devoted to economically inefficient, low return (usually agricultural) uses and that reallocation to more efficient, high return (usually urban) uses would increase total economic welfare.”(Molle, 2006);
• Water reallocation due to limited amount of resources has been known as source of conflicts among sectors;
• Water scarcity condition creates higher vulnerability for conflict due to water transfer which may escalates to destruction and fights among water users
Merdeka.com (September 2014)
Study Context : Bali, Indonesia
Sources: 1) Bali Provincial Government; 2) Bali Statistical Agency5
1. Area : 5,634.40 km2 1)
2. Population (2014): 4,104,900 2)
3. 8 regencies and 1 city
47%
22%
21%
16.82%
19%
30%
30%
29.89%
10%
14%
14%
15.56%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1987
1993
2003
2013
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bali Province
Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishery Mining&Quarrying Manufacturing Industry
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Trade, Hotel&Restaurant
Transport&Communication Financial,Ownership and Business Services Services
Suara Pembaruan Newspaper (September 2015)
Study Context : Bali, Indonesia
• This study takes an example of rapid development in Bali as one of the world’s tourist destinations
• The shifting water distribution from agriculture which is mostly owned by the locals to tourism industries about 85% of which is owned by non-Balinese (MacRae, 2010) is one of the examples of a conflict ridden process;
• Research on water conflicts in Bali were mostly discussed through social and political perspectives (Cole, 2012; Tarigan, Dharmawan, Tjondronegoro, & Suradisastra, 2014; Trisnawati, 2012);
• Very little research were published about the scientific reasons behind these conflicts;
• The objective of this study is to understand conflicts between sectors in Bali by comparing the spatial and seasonal variabilities of water uses and availability.
- 50,000
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Ja
n-8
2
Sep
-84
Ma
y-8
7
Ja
n-9
0
Sep
-92
Ma
y-9
5
Ja
n-9
8
Sep
-00
Ma
y-0
3
Ja
n-0
6
Sep
-08
Ma
y-1
1
Number of tourists visiting Bali Island
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1979 1987 1994 1999 2004 2009
Mil
lio
ns
Population (1979-2013)
Population Growth Rate (2000-2010): 2.14
0
50
100
150
200
1982 1988 1995 2000 2005 2010
Paddy fields (Harvested Area) in Th. Ha (1982-2013)
77
3,250
3,0003,000
3,000
2,750
2,500
2,500
2,750
2,250
2,250
2,250
2,000
2,000
2,000
1,7501,750
1,750
1,750
1,500
1500
1500
1,250
Rainfall (in mm)
Data source: Isohyet Map: JICARainfall Data: BMKGLocation map of PDAM JICA
Water Resources and infrastructure
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500428
288
226
144
7245 33
1331
77
143
331
P (
mm
/y)
Month
Rainfall Station Ngurah RaiMean monthly rainfall period 1990-2014
Rainfall
Clean water is supplied by Regional Drinking Water Companies (PDAM), which are managed by each regency/city.
Alternative water supply Shallow wells (less than 12 m)Deep wells (max. 60 m with less than 100 m3/month)Rivers
,
,
,
.
Dams : (total storage 14.37 million m3)
• Palasari Dam (Jembrana Regency) - 8 million m3
• Telaga Tunjung Dam (Tabanan Regency) - 1
million m3,
• Gerokgak Dam (Buleleng Regency) -3.75 million
m3 and
• Benel Dam (Jembrana Regency) -1.62 million m3
(Ministry of Agriculture, 2017).
Water Crisis and Conflicts
8
Info-graphic in local newspaper (Bali
Post) about Bali Water Deficit
Water crisis has been the media headline for the past decade in Bali.
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Water crisis because of damage in
infrastructure due to floods/landslides
Water crisis because of lack of water
source
Social
Complains from community:
I have to walk more than 2 km to find water during season”(Bali Post, 2015)
“The water in this “cubang” (water storage) is still enough before the peak of dry season, but
after the peak, discharge decreased and we have to buy clean water (from water tank). This
situation happened since a long time ago”(Bali Post, 2016c)
Complains from farmers:
“ Drought happened because volume of water in irrigation channel is small”(Bali Post, 2017),
“I cannot do farming anymore. There is no water. I lost my source of income.”(Bali Post,
2016b).
Some conflicts of water has been escalated from the crisis (Strauß, 2011; Tarigan
et al., 2014) and some even lead to destruction of public property such as road
and pipes (Bali Post, 2011b, 2011c). Conflicts happened between farmers and
PDAM and fights among local population over clean water.
9
Science
Water Balance Calculation
• Period of calculation: 1994 to 2013 (20 years – monthly for every regency)
Water use Data Standard
Domestic Population data(National population census)
1 person = 100 l/d(Indonesian National Standard/SNI)
Tourism • Number of hotel rooms• Monthly occupancy rate(only occupied room were counted)(Bali Province Statistical Agency)
(unit in m3/room/year)• 4-5 star = 1,424• 1-3 star = 949 • Non-classified = 548
Agriculture • Harvested Area (Bali Province Statistical Agency)
• Rainfall data (Ministry of Public Work rain gauges)
• Climatic data (BMKG climatic stations)
*) next slide
Water Use:1) Agriculture 2) Domestic3) Tourism
Water Availability:1) Rivers2) Springs3) Groundwater
vs.
Agriculture water use
for <=23.33 mm, = 0.6 – 3.33
for >23.33 mm, = 0.8 – 6.00
0.5
• Units: kc (-), I (mm/d), LP (mm/d), WLR (mm/d), DR (mm/d), E (-)• All constants were based on JICA et al. (2006)
IW =ETc+ I + LP +WLR + 0.7DR
E• Formula obtained from JICA et al. (2006)• IW = Irrigation Water• ETo= Potential Evapotranspiration obtained by Penmann-Monteith equation
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15
kc 1.1 1.1 1.08 1.05 1 0.95 - - 1.1 1.1 1.08 1.05
I 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
LP - - - - 3.33 6.67 3.33 - - - - -
WLR 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 - - 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15
kc 1 0.95 - - 1.1 1.1 1.08 1.05 1 0.95 - -
I 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2
LP 3.33 6.67 3.33 - - - - - 3.33 6.67 3.33 -
WLR - - 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 - - 1.67
Water Availability
Groundwater
• Estimated groundwater availability of a regency/city used based from JICA’s revision on the calculation from the Integrated Urban Infrastructure Development Program-Bali (IUIDP-Bali) Project.
• The recharge volume of each regency is calculated based on the proportion of each geological formation in the respective regency and the rainfall in the area and the exploitable limit is 10% of the recharge.
• Estimated from daily river discharge of major 31 river catchments;
• Estimation method provided by Ministry of Public Works of Indonesia. (based on a water balance equation using daily rainfall and evapotranspiration) including related coefficients suitable for Bali’s settings.
Rivers
• Based on data inventory of springs’ yield from Ministry of Public Works data.
• The spring water availability is calculated with the following equation:
• SW = spring water ; Qs is max. yield, n= is number of springs in one regency.
),(),(1
mjQrmSWnj
j
s
Springs
Annual Water Use (Bali)
13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1994 1999 2004 2009
Dom
esti
c an
d t
ouri
sm
Tota
l an
d a
gri
cult
ure
Water use in Bali (1994-2013)
(in million m3)
Tourism
Domestic
Agriculture
TOTAL
DOM9%
TOU2%
AGR89%
2013
DOM7%
TOU1%
AGR92%
1994
• Total water use increased by 0.01 billion m3 (0.54%) in 20 years;
• Domestic Water Use increased by 0.04 billion m3
• Tourism Water Use increased by 0.01 billion m3
• Agriculture Water use decreased by 0.04 billion m3
Water transfer:Agriculture to Domestic (82%) and Tourism (18%)
Spatial Water Use (9 Regencies/City)
14
<7
7-14
14-21
21-28
>28
In million m3
Domestic1994 2013
In million m3
Tourism
<4
4-8
8-12
12-16
>16
1994 2013
Legend
adm_bali_kab
T2013
<80
80-160
160-240
240-320
>320
Agriculture1994 2013
In million m3
Total
1994
2013
Legend
adm_bali_kab
T1994
<100
100-200
200-300
300-400
>400
In million m3
Gianyar
Badung
Domestic water use increased in most part of Bali and the highest in in Badung and Denpasar
Overall the highest water use is still in Tabanan area
15
Legend
MAY
Seasonal Tourism.csv.May
< 0.18
0.18 - 0.36
0.36 - 0.54
0.54 - 0.72
0.72 - 0.90
0.90 - 1.09
1.08 - 1.26
1.26 - 1.44
> 1.44
1994
2013
In million m3
Tourism seasonal water use
Legend
MAY
Seasonal Tourism.csv.May
< 0.18
0.18 - 0.36
0.36 - 0.54
0.54 - 0.72
0.72 - 0.90
0.90 - 1.09
1.08 - 1.26
1.26 - 1.44
> 1.44
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Mil
lio
ns
Badung Regency
2013
1994
In the peak periods, water used 1.05 times higher than the average. This value is lower in 2013 than in 1994
16
1994
2013
In million m3
Agriculture seasonal water use
In 1994, peak happened only in Tabanan and Buleleng but in 2013 it also happened in Gianyar
Legend
MAY
Seasonal agri 13.csv.May
< 20
20 - 40
40 - 60
60 - 80
> 80
0102030405060708090
100
Mil
lio
ns
Tabanan Regency
2013
1994
Seasonal Water Availability
17
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
in b
illi
on
m3
1994 2003 2013
• Annual water availability in Bali is ranged between 3.5 billion m3 to 7.1 billion m3. • Most of water resources (76%) comes from rivers, 18% from springs and 6% is from
groundwater (exploitable limit) • The comparison of seasonal water availability in 1994, 2003, and 2013 (above picture)
shows yearly and monthly variation of water availability. The lowest water availability is from August to October.
Water use vs. water availability
18
Water Use/Availability Stress Level
<0.1 Low
0.1 – 0.2 Moderate
0.2 -0.4 High
>0.4 Extreme
Conclusions
• Most water crisis which were reported in the local newspapers during July to October were
caused by lack of water resources while those which were reported during February to
April were caused by damage in water infrastructures (due to landslides or floods).
Some of the reported crisis were escalated to conflicts and destructions of public properties (Bali
Post, 2011b, 2011c, 2016) happened in Badung (July 2011), Karangasem (July 2011),
Gianyar (October 2017), Klungkung (November 2016), and Tabanan (October 2009).
All of these conflicts happened when water stress level in extreme condition.
• This study suggested that even though the Bali’s GRDP shows a change in regional income from
agriculture to tourism, but agriculture water use was only slightly decreased (2.73%) from 1994 to
2013. It even shows increasing trend since 2003. As the original income for the Balinese, this may
cause conflicts between farmers and other sectors. It should be therefore well regulated in terms
of timing and location based on available water resources. Accurate information with scientific
evidence on spatial and temporal availability of water as well as suggestion on planting schedule
should be communicated through proper method such as through the traditional subak system.
19
Conclusions
• Urbanization and tourism development happened in Badung Regency and
Denpasar City and water was reallocated from agriculture sector (decreased
by 62.78 million m3) to tourism and domestic (increased by 33.83 million
m3). Furthermore, these regencies have in nature smaller water
availability compare to other regencies (9% of all Bali). This situation
makes these regions prone to conflict due to hydrological variation
especially in prolonged dry period.
• The use of relatively stable water sources such as springs and groundwater
should be therefore regulated and monitored in a better way to avoid
uncontrolled use during dry period. On the other hand, assessment on the
sustainable limit of the use of these resources particularly for these regency and
city should be done more carefully to allow access during dry period.
20
Acknowledgement
21
Thank you…..
22