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“Understanding potential conflicts among sectors due spatial and seasonal water use and availability in Bali, Indonesia” Eva Mia Siska Supervisors: Prof. Dr. Kaoru Takara Assoc. Prof. Takahiro Sayama UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management 15-16 November 2017, Quezon City, Philippines 1

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Page 1: “Understanding potential conflicts among sectors duejastip.org/sites/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/1...7 3,250 3,000 3,000 3,000 2,750 2,500 2,500 2,750 2,250 2,250 2,250 2,000 2,000

“Understanding potential conflicts among sectors due spatial and seasonal water use and availability in Bali, Indonesia”

Eva Mia Siska

Supervisors:

Prof. Dr. Kaoru Takara

Assoc. Prof. Takahiro Sayama

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium onIntra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management15-16 November 2017, Quezon City, Philippines

1

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Contents of presentation

• Problem Statement

• Study context

• Methodology

• Results

o Water demand

o Water supply

• Conclusions2

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Economic growth and water reallocation

3

Population Growth Urbanization

Industrialization Economic diversification

Hydrological variation have less impact during dry season

Less population, modest lifestyle (less water per capita)

Less water user, simpler water management, less conflict

Hydrological variation have bigger impact during dry season

Larger area same water amount

More people, water consumptive lifestyle

Modern water supply More farmers,

Higher lifestyle, more crops per year

Different water users with higher economic value (more cash per drop)

Clean water competition between tourism and locals

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

1900 1940 1950 1960 1970 1975 1980 1990* 2000*

Agriculture Industry Municipal Reservoirs

Water withdrawal in the world (km3/year) (Shiklomanov, 1993)*) Estimation

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Economic growth and water reallocation

• Industrialization and urbanization are currently taking place in most of developing

countries in the world. Inevitably, water transfers to the growing urban centers and

inter-sectorial water allocation are likely to happen (Komakech, Van Der Zaag, & Van

Koppen, 2012; Wang, Fang, & Hipel, 2003);

• “Water is too often devoted to economically inefficient, low return (usually agricultural) uses and that reallocation to more efficient, high return (usually urban) uses would increase total economic welfare.”(Molle, 2006);

• Water reallocation due to limited amount of resources has been known as source of conflicts among sectors;

• Water scarcity condition creates higher vulnerability for conflict due to water transfer which may escalates to destruction and fights among water users

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Merdeka.com (September 2014)

Study Context : Bali, Indonesia

Sources: 1) Bali Provincial Government; 2) Bali Statistical Agency5

1. Area : 5,634.40 km2 1)

2. Population (2014): 4,104,900 2)

3. 8 regencies and 1 city

47%

22%

21%

16.82%

19%

30%

30%

29.89%

10%

14%

14%

15.56%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

1987

1993

2003

2013

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bali Province

Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishery Mining&Quarrying Manufacturing Industry

Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Trade, Hotel&Restaurant

Transport&Communication Financial,Ownership and Business Services Services

Suara Pembaruan Newspaper (September 2015)

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Study Context : Bali, Indonesia

• This study takes an example of rapid development in Bali as one of the world’s tourist destinations

• The shifting water distribution from agriculture which is mostly owned by the locals to tourism industries about 85% of which is owned by non-Balinese (MacRae, 2010) is one of the examples of a conflict ridden process;

• Research on water conflicts in Bali were mostly discussed through social and political perspectives (Cole, 2012; Tarigan, Dharmawan, Tjondronegoro, & Suradisastra, 2014; Trisnawati, 2012);

• Very little research were published about the scientific reasons behind these conflicts;

• The objective of this study is to understand conflicts between sectors in Bali by comparing the spatial and seasonal variabilities of water uses and availability.

- 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Ja

n-8

2

Sep

-84

Ma

y-8

7

Ja

n-9

0

Sep

-92

Ma

y-9

5

Ja

n-9

8

Sep

-00

Ma

y-0

3

Ja

n-0

6

Sep

-08

Ma

y-1

1

Number of tourists visiting Bali Island

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1979 1987 1994 1999 2004 2009

Mil

lio

ns

Population (1979-2013)

Population Growth Rate (2000-2010): 2.14

0

50

100

150

200

1982 1988 1995 2000 2005 2010

Paddy fields (Harvested Area) in Th. Ha (1982-2013)

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77

3,250

3,0003,000

3,000

2,750

2,500

2,500

2,750

2,250

2,250

2,250

2,000

2,000

2,000

1,7501,750

1,750

1,750

1,500

1500

1500

1,250

Rainfall (in mm)

Data source: Isohyet Map: JICARainfall Data: BMKGLocation map of PDAM JICA

Water Resources and infrastructure

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500428

288

226

144

7245 33

1331

77

143

331

P (

mm

/y)

Month

Rainfall Station Ngurah RaiMean monthly rainfall period 1990-2014

Rainfall

Clean water is supplied by Regional Drinking Water Companies (PDAM), which are managed by each regency/city.

Alternative water supply Shallow wells (less than 12 m)Deep wells (max. 60 m with less than 100 m3/month)Rivers

,

,

,

.

Dams : (total storage 14.37 million m3)

• Palasari Dam (Jembrana Regency) - 8 million m3

• Telaga Tunjung Dam (Tabanan Regency) - 1

million m3,

• Gerokgak Dam (Buleleng Regency) -3.75 million

m3 and

• Benel Dam (Jembrana Regency) -1.62 million m3

(Ministry of Agriculture, 2017).

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Water Crisis and Conflicts

8

Info-graphic in local newspaper (Bali

Post) about Bali Water Deficit

Water crisis has been the media headline for the past decade in Bali.

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Water crisis because of damage in

infrastructure due to floods/landslides

Water crisis because of lack of water

source

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Social

Complains from community:

I have to walk more than 2 km to find water during season”(Bali Post, 2015)

“The water in this “cubang” (water storage) is still enough before the peak of dry season, but

after the peak, discharge decreased and we have to buy clean water (from water tank). This

situation happened since a long time ago”(Bali Post, 2016c)

Complains from farmers:

“ Drought happened because volume of water in irrigation channel is small”(Bali Post, 2017),

“I cannot do farming anymore. There is no water. I lost my source of income.”(Bali Post,

2016b).

Some conflicts of water has been escalated from the crisis (Strauß, 2011; Tarigan

et al., 2014) and some even lead to destruction of public property such as road

and pipes (Bali Post, 2011b, 2011c). Conflicts happened between farmers and

PDAM and fights among local population over clean water.

9

Science

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Water Balance Calculation

• Period of calculation: 1994 to 2013 (20 years – monthly for every regency)

Water use Data Standard

Domestic Population data(National population census)

1 person = 100 l/d(Indonesian National Standard/SNI)

Tourism • Number of hotel rooms• Monthly occupancy rate(only occupied room were counted)(Bali Province Statistical Agency)

(unit in m3/room/year)• 4-5 star = 1,424• 1-3 star = 949 • Non-classified = 548

Agriculture • Harvested Area (Bali Province Statistical Agency)

• Rainfall data (Ministry of Public Work rain gauges)

• Climatic data (BMKG climatic stations)

*) next slide

Water Use:1) Agriculture 2) Domestic3) Tourism

Water Availability:1) Rivers2) Springs3) Groundwater

vs.

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Agriculture water use

for <=23.33 mm, = 0.6 – 3.33

for >23.33 mm, = 0.8 – 6.00

0.5

• Units: kc (-), I (mm/d), LP (mm/d), WLR (mm/d), DR (mm/d), E (-)• All constants were based on JICA et al. (2006)

IW =ETc+ I + LP +WLR + 0.7DR

E• Formula obtained from JICA et al. (2006)• IW = Irrigation Water• ETo= Potential Evapotranspiration obtained by Penmann-Monteith equation

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15

kc 1.1 1.1 1.08 1.05 1 0.95 - - 1.1 1.1 1.08 1.05

I 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2

LP - - - - 3.33 6.67 3.33 - - - - -

WLR 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 - - 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15

kc 1 0.95 - - 1.1 1.1 1.08 1.05 1 0.95 - -

I 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2

LP 3.33 6.67 3.33 - - - - - 3.33 6.67 3.33 -

WLR - - 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 - - 1.67

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Water Availability

Groundwater

• Estimated groundwater availability of a regency/city used based from JICA’s revision on the calculation from the Integrated Urban Infrastructure Development Program-Bali (IUIDP-Bali) Project.

• The recharge volume of each regency is calculated based on the proportion of each geological formation in the respective regency and the rainfall in the area and the exploitable limit is 10% of the recharge.

• Estimated from daily river discharge of major 31 river catchments;

• Estimation method provided by Ministry of Public Works of Indonesia. (based on a water balance equation using daily rainfall and evapotranspiration) including related coefficients suitable for Bali’s settings.

Rivers

• Based on data inventory of springs’ yield from Ministry of Public Works data.

• The spring water availability is calculated with the following equation:

• SW = spring water ; Qs is max. yield, n= is number of springs in one regency.

),(),(1

mjQrmSWnj

j

s

Springs

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Annual Water Use (Bali)

13

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1994 1999 2004 2009

Dom

esti

c an

d t

ouri

sm

Tota

l an

d a

gri

cult

ure

Water use in Bali (1994-2013)

(in million m3)

Tourism

Domestic

Agriculture

TOTAL

DOM9%

TOU2%

AGR89%

2013

DOM7%

TOU1%

AGR92%

1994

• Total water use increased by 0.01 billion m3 (0.54%) in 20 years;

• Domestic Water Use increased by 0.04 billion m3

• Tourism Water Use increased by 0.01 billion m3

• Agriculture Water use decreased by 0.04 billion m3

Water transfer:Agriculture to Domestic (82%) and Tourism (18%)

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Spatial Water Use (9 Regencies/City)

14

<7

7-14

14-21

21-28

>28

In million m3

Domestic1994 2013

In million m3

Tourism

<4

4-8

8-12

12-16

>16

1994 2013

Legend

adm_bali_kab

T2013

<80

80-160

160-240

240-320

>320

Agriculture1994 2013

In million m3

Total

1994

2013

Legend

adm_bali_kab

T1994

<100

100-200

200-300

300-400

>400

In million m3

Gianyar

Badung

Domestic water use increased in most part of Bali and the highest in in Badung and Denpasar

Overall the highest water use is still in Tabanan area

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15

Legend

MAY

Seasonal Tourism.csv.May

< 0.18

0.18 - 0.36

0.36 - 0.54

0.54 - 0.72

0.72 - 0.90

0.90 - 1.09

1.08 - 1.26

1.26 - 1.44

> 1.44

1994

2013

In million m3

Tourism seasonal water use

Legend

MAY

Seasonal Tourism.csv.May

< 0.18

0.18 - 0.36

0.36 - 0.54

0.54 - 0.72

0.72 - 0.90

0.90 - 1.09

1.08 - 1.26

1.26 - 1.44

> 1.44

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

Mil

lio

ns

Badung Regency

2013

1994

In the peak periods, water used 1.05 times higher than the average. This value is lower in 2013 than in 1994

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16

1994

2013

In million m3

Agriculture seasonal water use

In 1994, peak happened only in Tabanan and Buleleng but in 2013 it also happened in Gianyar

Legend

MAY

Seasonal agri 13.csv.May

< 20

20 - 40

40 - 60

60 - 80

> 80

0102030405060708090

100

Mil

lio

ns

Tabanan Regency

2013

1994

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Seasonal Water Availability

17

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

in b

illi

on

m3

1994 2003 2013

• Annual water availability in Bali is ranged between 3.5 billion m3 to 7.1 billion m3. • Most of water resources (76%) comes from rivers, 18% from springs and 6% is from

groundwater (exploitable limit) • The comparison of seasonal water availability in 1994, 2003, and 2013 (above picture)

shows yearly and monthly variation of water availability. The lowest water availability is from August to October.

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Water use vs. water availability

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Water Use/Availability Stress Level

<0.1 Low

0.1 – 0.2 Moderate

0.2 -0.4 High

>0.4 Extreme

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Conclusions

• Most water crisis which were reported in the local newspapers during July to October were

caused by lack of water resources while those which were reported during February to

April were caused by damage in water infrastructures (due to landslides or floods).

Some of the reported crisis were escalated to conflicts and destructions of public properties (Bali

Post, 2011b, 2011c, 2016) happened in Badung (July 2011), Karangasem (July 2011),

Gianyar (October 2017), Klungkung (November 2016), and Tabanan (October 2009).

All of these conflicts happened when water stress level in extreme condition.

• This study suggested that even though the Bali’s GRDP shows a change in regional income from

agriculture to tourism, but agriculture water use was only slightly decreased (2.73%) from 1994 to

2013. It even shows increasing trend since 2003. As the original income for the Balinese, this may

cause conflicts between farmers and other sectors. It should be therefore well regulated in terms

of timing and location based on available water resources. Accurate information with scientific

evidence on spatial and temporal availability of water as well as suggestion on planting schedule

should be communicated through proper method such as through the traditional subak system.

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Conclusions

• Urbanization and tourism development happened in Badung Regency and

Denpasar City and water was reallocated from agriculture sector (decreased

by 62.78 million m3) to tourism and domestic (increased by 33.83 million

m3). Furthermore, these regencies have in nature smaller water

availability compare to other regencies (9% of all Bali). This situation

makes these regions prone to conflict due to hydrological variation

especially in prolonged dry period.

• The use of relatively stable water sources such as springs and groundwater

should be therefore regulated and monitored in a better way to avoid

uncontrolled use during dry period. On the other hand, assessment on the

sustainable limit of the use of these resources particularly for these regency and

city should be done more carefully to allow access during dry period.

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Acknowledgement

21

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Thank you…..

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