Understanding demographic trends: Implications for Extension Bridging the Culture Divide: Inclusive Extension Programming for Latinos October 14-15, 2008

Understanding demographic trends: Implications for Extension

Bridging the Culture Divide:Inclusive Extension Programming for LatinosOctober 14-15, 2008

Acknowledgement The presenters wish to thank Steve Murdock, Director –

U.S. Census Bureau, for permission to include slides from his presentation “Population Change and Immigration in the United States: Implications for Economic and Socioeconomic Change and the 2010 Census” given at Joint Council of Extension Professionals Galaxy Conference held in Indianapolis, IN, September 16, 2008.

Overview Population trends Demographics

Racial/Ethnic DiversityAge

Role of immigration Implications for Socioeconomic

Development




Development

Total Population & Percent Population Change in United States

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

1790

1810

1830

1850

1870

1890

1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

2007

Po

pu

lati

on

0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.0

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Population Population Change

Population of U.S. & Percentage Distribution by Region, 1950-2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

Per

cen

t

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

Po

pu

lati

on

Northeast Midwest South West United States

Percent Change in Population for States and Puerto Rico: 2000-2007




Development

Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Population by Ethnicity for Texas and the U.S (2000 and 2007)

2000 2007 2000 2007

White Alone Non-Hispanic 10,986,965 11,443,618 4.2% 52.7% 47.9%Black Alone Non-Hispanic 2,378,444 2,729,864 14.8% 11.4% 11.4%Hispanic 6,669,666 8,600,399 28.9% 32.0% 36.0%Other Non-Hispanic 816,745 1,130,499 38.4% 3.9% 4.7%Total 20,851,820 23,904,380 14.6% 100.0% 100.0%

White Alone Non-Hispanic 195,575,485 199,091,567 1.8% 69.5% 66.0%Black Alone Non-Hispanic 34,313,007 37,037,204 7.9% 12.2% 12.3%Hispanic 35,305,818 45,504,311 28.9% 12.5% 15.1%Other Non-Hispanic 16,227,596 19,988,075 23.2% 5.8% 6.6%Total 281,421,906 301,621,157 7.2% 100.0% 100.0%

Texas

United States

Proportion of PopulationPercent Change 2000-2007Ethnic Category

Population

Latino Population in U.S.

Percent Change in Latino Population in U.S.

Median Age in the United States and Texas,

1900-2007

22.924.1

25.326.5

29.030.1 29.5

28.130.0

32.9

35.336.6

33.132.330.8

28.026.427.0

27.926.8

23.722.0

20.218.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

United States Texas

Percent Change in Population by Age Group

in the United States and Texas, 1990-2000

13.7

1.55.3

49.4

14.812

21.7

16.3 15.3

60.3

2420.7

<18 18-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Age Groups

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent Change

United States Texas

Percent of U.S. Population By Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000

58

. 4

59

. 9

62

. 8

63

. 1

61

. 1

61

. 9 65

. 2 69 7

1. 9

74

. 2

76

. 6

78

. 3

78

. 5 83

. 6

41

. 6

40

. 1

37

. 2

36

. 9

38

. 9

38

. 1

34

. 8

31

28

. 1

25

. 8

23

. 4

21

. 7

21

. 5

16

. 4

< 5 y

ears

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0

20

40

60

80

100Percent

Anglo Non-anglo

Percent of Texas Population By Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000

39.541.6

45.0 45.043.1 44.4

47.8

53.0

57.260.2

63.566.4 67.1

72.6

44.041.3

38.0 38.440.5

38.635.3

30.526.7

24.222.4

20.6 20.316.7

< 5

year

s

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic




Development

Percent of U.S. Population Change Due to Immigration and Natural Increase, 1820 to 2005

1820-301830-401840-501850-601860-701870-801880-90

1890-19001900-101910-201920-301930-401940-501950-601960-701970-801980-90

1990-20002000-2005

Time Period

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Percent

Components of ChangeImmigration Natural Increase

Immigration into the United States (in thousands), by Period and Area of Origin of Immigrants (Percentage), 1820-2006

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

1820-39 1840-59 1860-79 1880-99 1900-19 1920-39 1940-59 1960-79 1980-99 2000-07

Per

cen

t

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

Nu

mb

er o

f Im

mig

ran

ts

Europe Asia Latin America All other Immigrants

Components of Change by Hispanic Origin, United States, 2000-2006

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

Population Change Birth Death Natural Increase Net Migration

U.S. Total U.S. Hispanic U.S. Non-Hispanic

Numeric Change in Projected U.S. Population by Race & Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)

7.617.5

23.0

11.6

97.2

156.9

Non-HispanicWhite alone

Non-HispanicBlack alone

Non-HispanicAsian alone

Non-Hispanic allother races

Hispanic (anyrace)

Total

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections

Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Non-Hispanic White alone Non-Hispanic Black alone Non-Hispanic Asian aloneNon-Hispanic all other races Hispanic (any race)


Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: 2000 to 2050 (in percent)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0-4 5-19 20-44 45-64 65-84 85 and older

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


Percent Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Age: 2000 to 2050

46.638.3 33.6

57.7

125.6

343.2

0-4 5-19 20-44 45-64 65-84 85 and older





Development

Language Spoken at Home of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics, 2000 (Persons 5 Years and Older)

First Generation (Foreign-Born) Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born)

English All Other English All OtherEthnic Identity Only Spanish Languages Only Spanish Languages

Not Hispanic N 5,780,867 355,778 12,313,265 202,899,620 3,110,915 6,380,528% 31.3 1.9 66.7 95.5 1.5 3.0

Hispanic N 984,087 14,422,751 105,506 5,787,871 10,167,640 66,913% 6.3 93.0 0.7 36.1 63.5 0.4

Total N 6,764,954 14,778,529 12,418,771 208,687,491 13,278,555 6,447,441% 19.9 43.5 36.6 91.4 5.8 2.8

Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS

“The Making of a People” by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, MartaTienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington,D.C.

English Proficiency of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics Who Speak a Language Other Than English at Home (Persons 5 Years and Older)

First Generation (Foreign-Born) Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born)

Ethnic Identity Very Well Well Not Well Very Well Well Not Well

Not Hispanic N 6,422,750 3,618,000 2,640,980 7,248,659 1,368,422 879,628% 50.6 28.5 20.8 76.3 14.4 9.3

Hispanic N 4,359,787 3,492,497 6,676,279 7,580,619 1,851,963 802,037% 30.0 24.0 46.0 74.1 18.1 7.8

Total N 10,782,537 7,110,497 9,317,259 14,829,278 3,220,385 1,681,665% 39.6 26.1 34.2 75.2 16.3 8.5


“The Making of a People” by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, MartaTienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press,Washington, D.C.

Educational Attainment of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the U.S., 2000 (Persons 25 Years and Older)

First Generation Second+ Generations (Foreign-Born) (U.S.-Born)

College CollegeLess Than Graduate Less Than Graduate

Ethnic Identity High School or More High School or More

Not Hispanic N 3,213,973 5,388,741 23,821,393 37,132,874% 21.3 35.7 16.0 25.0

Hispanic N 6,724,296 1,007,105 1,964,135 903,691% 58.5 8.8 29.1 13.4

Mexican % 69.9 4.4 31.0 11.6Puerto Rican % 46.4 10.9 23.2 14.8Cuban % 40.9 18.8 13.3 34.2Dominican % 51.8 9.5 19.3 21.4Salvardoran, Guatamalan % 64.7 5.2 26.7 22.9Central American, other % 42.9 13.2 13.5 33.2Columbian % 27.9 22.0 10.7 38.3Peruvian, Ecuadorian % 29.5 17.6 9.3 36.1South American, other % 19.0 31.7 7.5 46.6Other Spanish, Hispanic, Latino % 28.2 28.5 30.1 12.8

Total N 9,938,269 6,395,846 25,785,528 38,036,565% 37.4 24.0 16.6 24.4



Hispanic N 6,724,296 1,007,105 1,964,135 903,691% 58.5 8.8 29.1 13.4

Total N 9,938,269 6,395,846 25,785,528 38,036,565% 37.4 24.0 16.6 24.4


“The Making of a People” by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, MartaTienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press,

Occupational Statusa of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the United States, 2000 (Employed Persons 16 and Older)

First Generation Second+ Generations (Foreign-Born) (U.S.-Born)

Professional, Professional,Low-Wage Technical, Low-Wage Technical,

Ethnic Identity Labor Managerial Labor Managerial

Not Hispanic N 3,888,636 5,895,344 41,137,385 54,681,470% 30.1 45.7 30.2 40.1

Hispanic N 6,760,643 1,752,934 2,899,023 2,287,386% 61.5 15.9 36.4 28.7

Total N 10,649,279 7,648,278 44,036,408 56,968,856% 44.6 32.0 30.5 39.5

aaOccupations ranked by their SEI (Duncan socioeconomic index) scores



Percent of Workers in Selection Occupations in U.S. Who Are Unauthorized Migrants, 2004

Occupation % Occupation %

Drywall/ceiling tile installers... 27% Cement masons & finishers 22%Roofers 21% Construsction laborers 20%Painters, construction etc. 20% Brick/block/stone masons 19%Carpenters 12%

Grounds maint. workers 26% Misc. agricultural workers 23%Hand packers & packagers 22% Graders & sorters, ag. prod. 22%

Butchers/meat, poultry wrkrs 25% Dishwashers 24%Cooks 18% Dining & cafeteria attendants 14%Food prep. workers 13% Janitors & bldg. cleaners 12%

Maids & housekeepers 22% Sewing machine operators 18%

Cleaning/washing equip. oper 20% Packaging/filling mach. oper. 17%Metal/plastic workers, other 13%

Source: Jeffrey S. Passel, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics.” 2005.Background Briefing Prepared for Task Force on Immigration and America’s Future.Washington D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center

Foreign-born share of employmentby occupation

6.3

8.2

11.2

13.5

19.8

20.7

21

22

22.1

32.7

38.5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Legal

Education

Mngmt, professionals

Healthcare, technical

Production, transportation

Service

Computer and math

Natural resources, const & maint.

Food preparation, serving

Cleaning and maintenance

Farming, fishing, and forestry

35

Foreign-born share of job growth,by occupation

18

57.3

27

30.9

57.7

86.2

61.7

0 20 40 60 80 100

Executive, administrative, and managerial

Sales occupations

Professional specialty

Technicians and related support

Total

Precision production, craft, and repair

Services Occupations

Source: 1996-2002, BLS

36

Foreign-born share of employment growth by census division

< 40

40 - 60

60 - 80

80 +Source: 1996-2003, BLS

37

Share of US scientists and engineers who are foreign-born large, increasing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

All collegedegrees

Bachelor's Master's Professional Doctoral

1990

2000

Percent

Source: Science and Engineering Indicators

38

Native and foreign-born labor force change, by education

-1407

-657

1483

5414

1662

1547

1414

2197

-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Less than highschool

High school grad

Some college

College grad

Foreign-born

Native

Source: 1996-2003; BLS, Haver AnalyticsThousands

39

Median Household Income in the United States by Age of Householder, 1999

$25,171

$42,174

$50,873

$56,917

$44,597

$27,304

$19,161

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Age of Householder

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Dollars

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Money Income in the United States: 1999, Current Population Report P60-209

40

Median Household Income in U.S. by Race/Ethnicity, 1989 and 1999 with Percent Change 1989 to 1999

Median

Household IncomePercent

Race/Ethnicity 1989 1999 Changeof Householder (in 1999 dollars) 1989-99

Total $ 39,009 $ 41,994 7.7

Anglo 41,106 45,367 10.4

Black 25,643 29,423 14.7

Hispanic* 31,351 33,676 7.4

Asian 48,030 51,908 8.1

*Hispanics can be of any race.

Median Household Income in U.S. by Race/Ethnicity, 1999

$42,504

$27,910

$51,205

$30,735

White Black Asian and Pacific Islander

Hispanic$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Dollars

Median Household Income in U.S. by Race/Ethnicity, 1989 and 1999 with Percent Change 1989 to 1999

Median



Total $ 39,009 $ 41,994 7.7

Anglo 41,106 45,367 10.4

Black 25,643 29,423 14.7

Hispanic* 31,351 33,676 7.4

Asian 48,030 51,908 8.1

*Hispanics can be of any race.

Median Household Income in U.S. by Household Type, 1999

$56,827

$41,838

$26,164$24,566

Married-coupleFamilies

Male Householder,no wife present

Female Householder,no husband present

Non-FamilyHouseholds

Household Type

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Dollars

Median Household Income in U.S. by Age of Householder and Race/Ethnicity, 1999

Age ofHouseholder Total White Black Hispanic*

15 - 24 $25,171 $26,787 $15,576 $24,268

25 - 34 42,174 45,230 28,766 31,377

35 - 44 50,873 53,034 35,061 34,699

45 - 54 56,917 60,370 39,638 39,711

55 - 64 44,597 46,483 28,631 30,718

65 - 74 27,304 28,470 18,647 18,807

75 + 19,161 19,491 13,637 14,166

*Hispanics can be of any raceSource: Money Income in the United States: 1999, Current

Population Reports, P 60-209. Washington, D.C.: U.S.Bureau of the Census

Median Household Income in the U.S. by Race/Ethnicity, 1989 and 1999 with Percent Change 1989 to 1999

Median



Total (all races) $38,721 $40,816 5.1

White 40,732 42,504 4.2

Black 24,479 27,910 12.3

Asian and Pacific Islander 48,383 51,205 5.5

Hispanic* 29,264 30,735 4.8 *Hispanics can be of any race.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Money Income in the United States,Current Population Report P60-209.

Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound Seniors in U.S. in 2001 by Selected Characteristics

SAT Score

Mean MeanCharacteristic Verbal Math

All Students 506 514(N = 1,276,320)

Race/Ethnicity:American Indian 481 479African American or Black 433 426Hispanic: Mexican American 451 458 Puerto Rican 457 451 Other Hispanic 460 465White 529 531Asian American or Pacific Islander 501 566

Household Income: < $10,000 421 443 $10,000 - 20,000 442 456 $20,000 - 30,000 468 474 $30,000 - 40,000 487 489 $40,000 - 50,000 501 503 $50,000 - 60,000 509 512 $60,000 - 70,000 516 519 $70,000 - 80,000 522 527 $80,000 - 100,000 534 540

> $100,000 557 569

SAT Score

Mean Mean

Characteristic Verbal Math

All Students 506 514(N = 1,276,320)

Race/Ethnicity:American Indian 481 479

Household Income: < $10,000 421 443

> $100,000 557 569

Percent of Net Change in Elementary & Secondary & College Enrollment 2000-2050 Due to Each Race/EthnicityRace Number Percent

Total Enrollment

Anglo -2,250,427 -8.5Black 4,651,683 17.6Hispanic 16,188,011 61.1Other 7,887,214 29.8Total 26,476,481 100.0

Elementary and Secondary

Anglo -2,011,875 -9.9Black 3,366,141 16.7Hispanic 13,373,528 66.3Other 5,432,495 26.9Total 20,160,289 100.0

College Enrollment

Anglo -238,552 -3.9Black 1,285,542 20.4Hispanic 2,814,483 44.6Other 2,454,719 38.9Total 6,316,192 100.0

Percent of Population 15 Years of Age and Older in U.S. by Educational Attainment Level and Race/Ethnicity, 2000

% % % %Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic Non-Hispanic %

Attainment Level White Black Origin Other Total

Less than 9th grade 4.9 7.6 24.6 9.0 7.79th to 12th grade, no degree 14.0 24.9 26.1 16.1 16.8High school graduate (includes equivalency) 28.4 28.4 21.8 19.9 27.2Some college, no degree 22.7 22.2 15.6 19.5 21.7Associate degree 6.2 5.0 3.6 6.0 5.7Bachelors degree 15.5 8.1 5.4 18.6 13.6Graduate or professional degree 8.3 3.8 2.9 10.9 7.3

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Percent Projected Educational Attainment Level in U.S. by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050 Population 15 Years of Age and Older

% % % %Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic Non-Hispanic %

Attainment Level White Black Origin Other Total

2000

Less than 9th grade 45.8 12.1 36.2 5.9 7.79th to 12th grade, no degree 59.5 18.1 17.5 4.9 16.8High school graduate (includes equivalency) 74.6 12.7 9.0 3.7 27.2Some college, no degree 74.8 12.5 8.1 4.6 21.7Associate degree 76.8 10.6 7.2 5.4 5.7Bachelors degree 81.3 7.2 4.5 7.0 13.6Graduate or professional degree 81.5 6.4 4.5 7.6 7.3Total 71.4 12.2 11.3 5.1 100.0

2050

Less than 9th grade 23.4 11.3 55.6 9.7 11.79th to 12th grade, no degree 39.6 20.1 31.1 9.2 17.8High school graduate (includes equivalency) 56.9 16.0 18.7 8.4 26.0Some college, no degree 57.3 15.7 17.1 9.9 20.1Associate degree 58.1 13.7 16.0 12.2 5.2Bachelors degree 64.2 9.6 10.1 16.1 12.2Graduate or professional degree 63.4 8.9 10.9 16.8 7.0Total 51.4 14.7 23.2 10.7 100.0

50

Implications for the 2010 Census (and Extension / Public Services?) The post 9/11 psyche The Immigration Debate Natural and manmade disasters A larger and “hard-to-reach population Increased resistance to providing

personal information

Sources of Data U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Pew Hispanic Center Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, (eds.)

Hispanics and the Future of America National Academy Press, Washington D.C.

2006 State Data Centers

Discussion How might you use this data Implications

Youth & 4-H Development Family Consumer Sciences Agriculture Community Development

Documents

Understanding demographic trends: Implications for Extension Bridging the Culture Divide: Inclusive Extension Programming for Latinos October 14-15, 2008