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Marginal GainsUnderstanding Bend’s Economic Potential
Damon RunbergEconomist
Oregon Employment Department
The aggregation of marginal gainsDave Brailsford
“The 1 percent margin for improvement in everything you do.”
A Great Recession, but a Grand Recovery
113%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
1 4 71
01
31
61
92
22
52
83
13
43
74
04
34
64
95
25
55
86
16
46
77
07
37
67
98
28
58
89
19
49
71
00
10
31
06
10
91
12
11
51
18
12
11
24
Pe
rce
nt
of
Pre
vio
us
Pe
ak
Em
plo
ym
en
t
Months since Previous Peak Employment
Unemployment levels near historic lows
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Jan
-20
06
May
-20
06
Sep
-20
06
Jan
-20
07
May
-20
07
Sep
-20
07
Jan
-20
08
May
-20
08
Sep
-20
08
Jan
-20
09
May
-20
09
Sep
-20
09
Jan
-20
10
May
-20
10
Sep
-20
10
Jan
-20
11
May
-20
11
Sep
-20
11
Jan
-20
12
May
-20
12
Sep
-20
12
Jan
-20
13
May
-20
13
Sep
-20
13
Jan
-20
14
May
-20
14
Sep
-20
14
Jan
-20
15
May
-20
15
Sep
-20
15
Jan
-20
16
May
-20
16
Sep
-20
16
Jan
-20
17
May
-20
17
Sep
-20
17
Se
aso
na
lly
Ad
just
ed
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
Levels of production reaching new heights
FHFA, All-Transaction Home Price Index
$4.0
$4.5
$5.0
$5.5
$6.0
$6.5
$7.0
$7.5
$8.0
$8.5
$9.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gro
ss D
om
est
ic P
rod
uct
(in
bil
lio
ns
of
20
09
ch
ain
ed d
oll
ars)
Economic Output 22% higher in real dollars compared to 10 years ago
Home prices completely recovered
Bend-RedmondEugene
Medford
Portland
Salem
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46
Pe
rce
nt
of
pre
vio
us
pe
ak
ho
usi
ng
pri
ces
Quarters since previous peak housing prices
FHFA, All-Transaction Home Price Index
Have we reached the mountain top?
Recovered from the recession 7.5%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan
-20
02
Jun
-20
02
No
v-2
00
2
Ap
r-2
00
3
Sep
-20
03
Feb
-20
04
Jul-
20
04
Dec
-20
04
May
-20
05
Oct
-20
05
Mar
-20
06
Au
g-2
00
6
Jan
-20
07
Jun
-20
07
No
v-2
00
7
Ap
r-2
00
8
Sep
-20
08
Feb
-20
09
Jul-
20
09
Dec
-20
09
May
-20
10
Oct
-20
10
Mar
-20
11
Au
g-2
01
1
Jan
-20
12
Jun
-20
12
No
v-2
01
2
Ap
r-2
01
3
Sep
-20
13
Feb
-20
14
Jul-
20
14
Dec
-20
14
May
-20
15
Oct
-20
15
Mar
-20
16
Au
g-2
01
6
Jan
-20
17
Jun
-20
17
Ov
er-
the
-ye
ar
em
plo
ym
en
t ch
an
ge
(in
pe
rce
nt)
If you just stop for a minute and ask yourself,
is there anyway to progress from where you are now?
Of course there is,
I can do this a little bit better or that a little bit
better.
Dave Brailsford
Where can we still make “marginal
gains”?
We can focus on…retaining AND expanding the labor pool
0
2
4
6
8
10
12Se
p-1
0
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Un
em
plo
ye
d p
er
He
lp W
an
ted
Ad
Over 65% of vacancies identified as “difficult-to-fill” in 2016…
Primarily due to a lack of applicants
…this means we need to keep attracting young workers
…and wages need to rise (or cost of living needs to lower)
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Jan
-08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan
-16
May
-16
Sep
-16
Jan
-17
May
-17
Sep
-17
Ave
rag
e H
ou
rly
Ea
rnin
gs
(12
-mo
nth
mo
vin
g av
erag
e)
We can focus on…our “resistance” to recession
Res
ista
nce
Recoverability
MOST RESILIENT
LEASTRESILIENT
Deschutes County
…this means diversifying our economic base
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Restaurantsand Other
Eating Places
Management,Scientific,
andTechnical
ConsultingServices
WholesaleElectronic
Markets andAgents and
Brokers
ComputerSystems
Design andRelatedServices
ResidentialBuilding
Construction
Offices ofReal EstateAgents and
Brokers
Services toBuildings and
Dwellings
BuildingFinishing
Contractors
Offices ofPhysicians
Offices ofOther HealthPractitioners
# o
f n
ew
bu
sin
ess
es
(20
10
-20
15
)
“Lifestyle” Businesses
Construction Businesses
Health Businesses
…by marketing our competitive advantage
“I urge [tourists] to come and come many, many times to enjoy the beauty of Oregon. But I also ask them, for heaven’s sake, don’t move here to live.”
Governor Tom McCall (1971)
Lifestyle is not sufficient, but it is essential
We can focus on…the region, not just local
12.7%
-5.2%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Employed Nonfarm Jobs
Over the past 20 years in Crook County…
“Forget about perfection; focus on progression, and compound the improvement.”
David Brailsford