Understand In the Nigerian Telecommunications Industryx

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OVERVIEW OF NIGERIA’S TELECOMMUNICATION SECTOR

42 Olowu street, Ikeja Lagos – Nigeria

Web: www.valuefronteira.comEmail: [email protected]© ValueFronteira Limited - December, 2009



OVERVIEW OF THE NIGERIAN

TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY

The Nigerian been driven by revenues from the oil and gassector;

The recent growth explosion in the Telecommunicationsindustry is a clear indication of successful diversification;

‘Access to ICT increasingly determines access to wealth and

income, thus, improving the quality of life for all’; The industry has evolved from the use of telegraphs in the

1970s and early 1980s, fixed telephones in the 1980s and1990s and mobile telephony since 2000;

Since then the Nigerian Telecommunication has beentagged the fastest growing sector in Africa.

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The Nigerian Telecommunications Industry




TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY II

Nigeria is Africa’s largest telecom market with activesubscribers of over 65.3 million in mid 2009 surpassingSouth Africa’s 45million subscribers;

In the past eight years, the telecommunications sector inNigeria has grown at the fastest rate;

Between 99 an 2000 su scr ers p t a out m onbefore the issuance of (GSM) unified license in 2001;

While GSM subscribers are in the range of 58.3 million,CDMA subscription in Nigeria grew from just 380,000 in

2007 to more than 7 million in 2009; The market grew by 23% with total industry revenue of

US$8.42billion.

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TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY III

With mobile penetration at 42%, revenue is expected

to increase to US$11.14billion by 2013 at a forecastannual growth rate of 5.7%;

Nigeria’s tele-density grew from 0.73% in 2001 toabout 48 in mid 009

The current market installed capacity is 120.92million.

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COMMUNICATION AS A GATEWAY TO NATIONAL

DEVELOPMENT – [EMPLOYMENT CREATION]

More than 12,500 persons are directly employed by the telecomoperators;

Millions of Nigerians, through the ‘umbrella call centres’, areindirectly employed through the network of dealers andvendors;

have mushroomed all over the country in response to industry growth;

The industry now accounts for about 3% of GDP (from about0.7% in 2001).

The multiplier impact of these developments is positive onalternative employment creation.

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DEVELOPMENT - [INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES]

Since 1999, Nigeria has demonstrated the highest potential forICT investment in Africa;

The NCC reported 64 million SIMs in operation at thebeginning of January 2009, with 23 million new subscriberssigning up in 2008;

This rowth of 55% in 2008 alone has encoura ed a flurr of

local and multinational investors into the industry; In 2007, Telecommunications attracted the most private

participant investment in Africa (86% of total);

Nigeria claimed the dominant share of the $9.5 billion

(reportedly the highest since 1990) at 28% ($2.66 billion)followed by South Africa at 11% ($1.045 billion).

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DEVELOPMENT - [GROWTH DRIVER]

Telecommunications infrastructure investments are correlatedwith economic growth (based on research done on 21 OECD

countries). For instance, investments in communication infrastructure has

significant growth effects: for OECD countries it is about 0.59%(on average) (Source: Roller and Waverman 2001) Roeller, Lars-Hendrik, and Leonard Waverman

2001, ‘Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach’American Economic Review 91 (4): 909-23)

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INFORMATION AS A GATEWAY TO NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT –

[LINK TO THE WORLD]

ICT development ensured that the internet is not a preserve of the wealthy in Nigeria;

Consequently linked large numbers of Nigerians to the worldmarkets (e.g. job markets) and resources (e.g. information);

ICT development resulted in the exponential increase in thenumber of telephone lines, etc;

ICT develo ment led to the licensin of man Private

Telecommunications Operators Operators (PTO); ICT development resulted in the drop in price for internet

usage from about N750 per hour in 1997 to about N200currently;

Entrepreneurs now predicate the growth of their businesses on

ICT through input processing, advertisements, capacity development etc.

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THE REPORTING STRUCTURE OF THE NIGERIAN

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

INDUSTRY

FederalGovernment

Ministry ofCommunication

NigerianCommunicationsCommission

Telecom ServiceOperators

12/15/2009 The Nigerian Telecommunications Industry



THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

The role of Government in the telecom industry includes:

Setting the overall direction for telecommunicationdevelopment;

Ensuring policy consistency of telecommunication withnatural policies;

Enacting necessary laws and taking the measures promptly in

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MINISTRY OF COMMUNICATIONS

The ministry formulates broad telecommunicationpolicies. Among its specific functions are:

Proposing policy options and recommending to government such measures as legislation and fiscalincentives;

Monitoring the implementation of government

policy in the industry; Establishing policies for promoting universal

access to communications in Nigeria;

Liaising with the National Assembly ontelecommunication matters.

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NIGERIAN COMMUNICATION COMMISSION (NCC)

As the independent regulator of the telecomindustry, its major functions include to:

License the telecom operators; Assign and register frequency to duly licensed

operators;

Facilitate private sector participation andinvestment in the telecom sector of the Nigerianeconomy;

Establish and enforce technical operationalstandards and practices for all operatorsincluding the imposition of penalties.

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TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICE PROVIDERS

These providers offer telecommunication services in the areaof telephony service, Global System of Mobile CommunicationServices (GSM), fixed wireless access and VSAT;

The top players in the industry include MTN, Zain, Etisalat,Globacom, Mtel, Multilinks, Reltel and Visaphone.

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SHARE OF SERVICES (AS AT JUNE 2009)

Fixed

Wired/Wireless

2% CMDA

11%

GSM

87%

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MARKET SHARE OF MOBILE OPERATORS (AS AT JUNE 2009)

MTN, 46.19MTN, 46.19MTN, 46.19MTN, 46.19

Zain, 24.74Zain, 24.74Zain, 24.74Zain, 24.74

EMTS,EMTS,EMTS,EMTS,

2.1762.1762.1762.176

MMMM----Tel, 0.44Tel, 0.44Tel, 0.44Tel, 0.44

Globacom, 26.87Globacom, 26.87Globacom, 26.87Globacom, 26.87




PROFILE OF KEY PLAYERS IN NIGERIANS’

TELECOMMUNICATION LINE

Deregulation in the Nigerian Telecommunications system in 2001

gave way to private involvement which in turn led to emergence of

major players in the field. These include MTN, Globacom and

Multilinks

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GLOBACOM

Globacom Limited is a privately held company and theSecond National Operator (SNO) in Nigeria.

Started operation in August 29, 2003 in Nigeria.

Occupies a market share (percentage of total subscription)of 26.87% of the major mobile telecommunicationoperators in Nigeria (NCC, June 2009) and

Employs about 2500 staff.

One million subscribers in over 87 towns in its firstyear of operation

Over 22 Million subscribers in the first quarter of2009.

Running on 2.5G platform at inception as against thenorm then which was based on the 2G technology(2nd Generation mobile technology) platform

Brief Profile Milestones

u u v

mobile, entertainment, long distance carrier and Internetservice provider services.

Over 25 million subscribers.

Coverage extends outside Nigeria to some West Africancountries like Benin Republic, Ghana and Ivory Coast

Reputation of being one of the fastest growing mobileservice providers in the world.

. The official sponsor of the Nigerian Premier League,Nigeria National Football Teams, Nigeria FootballFederation (NFF), and the Confederation of African FootballAfrican Player of the Year Award.

In 2004 it became the irst operator in A rica to launch

gateway switches outside the continent to carryinternational voice and data traffic.

Made world-wide history by building the worlds’ firstsubmarine optic fibre cable (Glo 1) to be built by asingle individual company.

This created stronger links to the world and cheaperand improved services.

Reputation as the largest roaming coverage for voiceand data in Africa

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MTN

MTN Nigeria is part of MTN Group, an South African-basedmultinational mobile telecommunications company.

Commenced operation in Nigeria in 2001 with brandpromise ‘everywhere you go’

Five core values of Leadership, Integrity, Can–Do,Innovation and Relationships.

Prides itself on its ability to make the ‘impossible’ possible.

Occupies a market share of 46.19% of the major mobile

The first GSM network to make a call following the NigerianGSM auction conducted by Nigerian CommunicationsCommission in 2001 and the first Nigeria GSM company to

establish operations in Nigeria.

The first GSM network in Nigeria to have adopted anadditional numbering system, having exhausted its initialsubscriber numbering range- 0803

Established the MTN Foundation which is the arrowhead ofMTN’s social investment drive and hel s in de lo in various

Profile Milestones

telecommunication operators in Nigeria (NCC, June 2009)

Offers multifaceted telecommunication services like cellularnetwork access and business solutions.

Coverage extends to some other African countries likeBotswana, Rwanda and South-Africa.

Overriding mission is to be a catalyst for Nigerian’seconomic growth, development.

Helping to unleash Nigerians’ strong potential through theprovision of world class communications, innovative andsustainable Corporate Social Responsibility.

programmes designed to reduce poverty and foster

sustainable development in the areas of Education, Healthand Economic empowerment

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MULTILINKS

Multilinks was incorporated in 1994 as a limited liabilitycompany and licensed to operate and provide

telecommunications services deploying CDMA (FixedWireless) technology.

In May 2006, the company was licensed to provide andoperate Unified Access Services in Nigeria.

Its scope of operation was expanded to include provisionof Digital Mobile Services, Fixed Telephony Services,International Data Access service and National Long

The first to introduce the CDMA 2000 1X

Technology Was recognized as the ‘Best broadband

internet provider’ by Nigerian InformationTechnology and Telecommunication Awards(NITTA) in 2009

Profile Milestones

Became a wholly owned subsidiary of Telkom SA inJanuary 2009 after being acquired by Telkom (Proprietary)International Limited.

Has a vision of becoming Nigerian’s ICT Service providerand employer of choice.

As one of the major players in the CDMA telecom market,it controls the second largest market share (source: IsaacFadeyibi, May 23, 2009).

Renowned for its voice, internet and data services.

Was recognized as the Best National Fixed

Telecom Operator 2008

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INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

1 2 / 1 5 / 2 0 0 9

T h eN i g er i a

20

nT

el e c omm uni c a t i on s

I n d u s t r y



OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE

Company Company Company Company Foreign ComponentForeign ComponentForeign ComponentForeign Component LocalLocalLocalLocal

MTN 79% (MTN Group 76%, IFC (3%) 21 %

ZAIN 65.7% (Zain Group) 34.3%

GLOBACOM N/A 100%

ETISALAT 60% (Mubdala Holdings Ltd 30%, MycynthCooperative 30%)

40%

MULTILINK 100% (Telkom Group) N/A

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SERVICES PROVIDED

MTNMTNMTNMTN ZAINZAINZAINZAIN GLOBACOMGLOBACOMGLOBACOMGLOBACOM MULTILINKSMULTILINKSMULTILINKSMULTILINKS

Caller TunezReloaded

Blackberry Glo Premium Mobile Tariff

MTN Loaded Voicemail Prepaid Classic Fixed Wireless Tariff

MTN Google SMS Roaming Easy Share BZO Plan

MTN Backup Conference Calling Glo Profit Max Special CUG (Closed UserGroup)

w

MTN Share & Sell SMS (Text Message) Classic Plus N2009 Blue BroadbandService

MTN Family & Friends

Call Me Back Glo Easy Talk EVDO Router

MTN Call Me Me 2 U Glo Caller Tunes IX Data ServiceConnect 4 Life One Network Glo MMS

MTN Fast Mail Call Barring 3G Handset Parameters

MTN Voice Mail Call Waiting Glo 3G Tariff

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RECENT MILESTONES

23

42 42

65.3

12.5

Regulator'sRegulator'sRegulator'sRegulator's (NCC ) policy impact on Telecom Industry in Nigeria on selected indicators.(NCC ) policy impact on Telecom Industry in Nigeria on selected indicators.(NCC ) policy impact on Telecom Industry in Nigeria on selected indicators.(NCC ) policy impact on Telecom Industry in Nigeria on selected indicators.

8.42 .

% annual growth rate Revenue ($US Billion) Mobile penetrationrate(%)

Market share(%) Subscribers(Million) Foreign investment ($US Billion)

Private investment($US Billion)

The annual growth rate increased from less than 8% in 1999 to over 23% in 2009; the total revenue accrued grew from less than

$500 million to over $8.42 billion in recent time; the fixed & mobile penetration rate grew from less than 5% in 2000 to 42% in

2009; market share also increased to 42%; the total number of subscribers grew from less than 500,000 in 1999 to 65.3 million in2009; and investment in the industry grew from $50 million to over 22.8 billion.

Source: www.ncc.gov.ng

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RECENT MILESTONES II

19.5

34

42.7

62.9965.3

Growth profile of the Telecomm subscribers in Nigeria (in million).

0.5 0.6 1 2.34.5

7.2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

The growth of the Nigerian Telecommunication industry from as low as 0.5 million customers in 1999 to 65.3 million in 2009is believed by experts to be as a result of the effective reforms in the industry in recent time.

Source: ITU reports on ICT in Nigeria.

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RECENT MILESTONES III

5% 5% 5%6%

7% 7%

11% 11.50%13%

17%

20%

23%Annual telecomm market growth rate across Africa(%)

4

Cameroon Sudan Ghana Ivorycoast Tanzania Kenya Algeria Ethiopia DRC Uganda Egypt S/Africa Nigeria

Nigeria remains the leading market in the Telecommunication Industry in sub-Saharan Africa. It has market growth rate of 23% against 4% in much smaller sized Cameroon.

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RECENT MILESTONES IV

16.2

22.8

42.4

65.3Telecom subscribers in selected African countries (million)

4.19 4.2

10.5

Cameroon Ivory coast Ghana Kenya Morocco S/Africa Nigeria

Nigeria is a leader in terms of number of active lines subscribed across Africa as a result of effective policy

implementation by the regulatory authority, NCC.

Source: ITU 2009 report on ICT in Africa

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REGULATORY IMPACTS

TeleTeleTeleTele----density density density density growth growth growth growth:::: The NCC is committed to triple the present tele-density growth througheffective policy reforms and project implementation;

IssuanceIssuanceIssuanceIssuance of of of of DigitalDigitalDigitalDigital MobileMobileMobileMobile LicenceLicenceLicenceLicence (DML)(DML)(DML)(DML) AuctionAuctionAuctionAuction by by by by NCCNCCNCCNCC: The issuance of licences facilitated aphenomenal expansion of telephone lines in Nigeria, from about 500,000 connected lines in

1999 to over 65.3 million subscribers.; TheTheTheThe issuanceissuanceissuanceissuance of of of of licenseslicenseslicenseslicenses totototo thethethethe InternetInternetInternetInternet ServicesServicesServicesServices ProvidersProvidersProvidersProviders (ISP (ISP (ISP (ISP): Through this, the establishment

of an Internet Exchange Point in Nigeria and the initiating a class licensing regime to simplify authorization processes for Cybercafés and Tele-centre, the spread of internet access was furtherencouraged;

InvestmentsInvestmentsInvestmentsInvestments inininin thethethethe TelecommunicationsTelecommunicationsTelecommunicationsTelecommunications SectorSectorSectorSector: Prior to the licensing of the Digital MobileOperators, private investment in the telecommunications sector was just about $50 million.Between 2001 and now, the sector has attracted over $22.8 billion, of which $12.5 billion isfrom direct foreign investment and $10.3 billion from private investors. Nigeria has thus becomeone of the most desired investment destinations for ICT in Africa;

RevenueRevenueRevenueRevenue totototo FederalFederalFederalFederal GovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernment andandandand privateprivateprivateprivate individualindividualindividualindividual: Over $8.42 billion has been accruedfrom the industry with the Federal Government earning over $2.5 billion from a range of licensing fees alone and other revenue between 2001 and 2009. Import duties and taxes fromthe telecom industry have also contributed substantial revenue to the Government which in turncan be reinvested into the industry;

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REGULATORY IMPACTS

Review Review Review Review of of of of Tariff Tariff Tariff Tariff RatesRatesRatesRates: Competition has led to more easily available services at affordable prices. Prior to theadvent of digital mobile services in 2001, cost of subscription to Mtel analogue mobile services was overN60,000. Presently, GSM subscription has fallen to almost zero. The introductory tariff minute call on GSMnetwork can be as low as about twenty five Naira (N25) per minute on-net (mobile to mobile) and someoperators offer additional discounts through various initiatives;

ConsumerConsumerConsumerConsumer Protection

ProtectionProtectionProtection policy

policy policy policy: The NCC remains the sole agency of government that provide a regular

platform to encourage the consumers to publicly voice their complaints in fulfilment of its mandate forconsumer protection and empowerment through the initiatives such as: Consumer Outreach Program(COP), Customer Care Centre, Support for Consumer Advocacy Groups, Collaboration with ConsumerProtection Council (CPC), Consumer outreach program (COP) and The Telecom Consumer ParliamentTCP ;

PromotionPromotionPromotionPromotion of of of of UniversalUniversalUniversalUniversal ServiceServiceServiceService ProvisionProvisionProvisionProvision: In order to ensure that telecommunication services are extendedto rural areas, the Commission has supported and promoted a number of initiatives through the UniversalService Provision Fund like: Community Communications Centre (CCC), Schools’ Universities AccessProgram to Digital Life Style (SUAP2DLS), Rural Broadband Internet (RUBI) Access, Accelerated MobilePhone Expansion (AMPE) Project and Backbone Transmission Infrastructures. These programmes furtherenhance economic growth.

Source: International Telecommunications Union Report on ICT in Africa, 2009 and Ndukwe, 2009

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CHALLENGES OF THE TELECOMM INDUSTRY

Weak and inadequate Infrastructural base despite thehuge income accrued in the recent past;

High Telecom Facilities disparity between urban and

rural areas; Shortage of long term investment capital in Nigeria; Limitation of enabling laws and regulations; Unreliable electric power supply;

Local and foreign interconnectivity bottleneck as wellas poor quality services; Shortages of skills; Poor customer service management;

Problem of vandalization by restive youths in somepart of the country.

Source: International Telecommunications Union Report on ICT in Africa, 2009 and Ndukwe, 2009.

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CROSS COUNTRY ANALYSIS: TELEDENSITY

Nigeria South Africa India Brazil

Rising – Nigeria’s

teledensity has

grown from 0.4% in

2000 to about 50%

as at Nov, 2009.

100 lines for every

1000 inhabitants.

Rising – increase from

5.11% in 2003 to 36.98 % in

March 2009. In the rural

area tele-density

increased from 1.49% in

Mar 200 to 1 .11% in

Mobile line density:

84,61 Phones/100 Hab

(as at July 2009).

Land line Density:

22.798 Phones/100

Hab as at Jul 200

March 2009 and in theurban areas it is

increased from 14.32% in

Mar 2003 to 88.84% in

March.

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CROSS COUNTRY ANALYSIS: RANKING


Fastest growing

telecoms network

market in Africa.

Fourth-fastest growing

mobile communications

market in the world.

Largest and most

developed

telecommunications

network in Africa, including

India's telecom

market is now the

largest in the world

based on the

number of new

monthly subscribers

added.

Ranks 2nd after

Chile, in Latin

America's telecom

penetration.

One of the fastest

growing telecoms

the latest in fixed-line,

wireless, satellite and

cellular technology.

America .

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CROSS COUNTRY ANALYSIS: MARKET STRENGTH,SUBSCRIBER BASE, PENETRATION & INTERNET USAGE

Criterion Nigeria South Africa India Brazil

Strongest

telecoms market

Mobile telephony Mobile telephony Mobile telephony Mobile telephony

Number of mobile

phone

connections/Subsc

ribers

67 million as at

February, 2009

51.9 million as at

March, 2009

Over 488 million

subscribers as at

end of october,

2009.

525.65 million

mobile phone

connections as at

Oct 2009.

Internet 7.4% of the 9.4% of the 7% of the 34% of the

penetration population.

149,229,090

population (2009

census Bureau)

population.

49052489

population (2008)

population.

(2008)

1,156,897,766

population (2009)

population

198,739,269

population (2009)

Number of internet users

11,000,000 (2009) 4,590 , 000 (Dec,

2008)

81,000,000 (2008) 67,510,269

(Latest)

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CROSS COUNTRY ANALYSIS: INDUSTRY CHALLENGES


Weak Infrastructural base.

High Telecom Facilitiesdisparity between urbanand rural areas.

Shortage of long terminvestment.

Telcom’s monopoly ofthe public switchedSouth Africantelecoms market.

Restricted access totelecoms services.

Relatively lowtelecoms penetrationin the rural areas,compared to theurban centers.

Unavailability of localapplication and

Shortcomings in ITeducation but whichare complementedfor by outsourcingand IT usercompanies andservice providersthrough extensive

Epileptic power supply.

Local and foreigninterconnectivitybottlenecks.

Poor quality service.

,

the content availableon website as oftoday is in English.

.




CROSS COUNTRY ANALYSIS: DRIVERS OF GROWTH


Growth of the

mobile telephony.

Growth in the GSM

(Global System for

Mobile telephony)

Growth of the mobile

telephony.

Growth of the mobile

telephony.

Improvement in

infrastructure.

Large population.

market.

Good regulatory

framework.

Deregulation of theindustry.

Liberal policies of the

Government

Easy market access

for telecom.

A fair regulatoryframework

Affordable prices.

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CONCLUSION: INDUSTRY PROSPECTS I

With global businesses moving to Nigeria,and pressures from local businesses,government, educational institutions, etc,the demand for reliable and modern ICTinfrastructure will transform Nigeria into a‘major market for Communciationse ui ment and services in technolo areas

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such as Digital transmission systems(including microwave, satellite and opticfibre)’

- African Banker, ‘Nigeria: A Compelling Telecom Growth’ p. 13, Issue 10 , 4 th qtr

2009).



CONCLUSION: INDUSTRY PROSPECTS II

ICT is seen as a major driver to accomplish the Vision2020 goals;

Kano State, for instance, is using an ICT Park as alaunching pad to boost investment within the state;

Nigeria’s central location on the continent, has thepotential of her being the ICT hub for the West Africanregion;

There is a huge potential to further provide ICTcoverage for the predominantly unserved rural areas,thereby increasing teledensity;

Increased private sector participation will attractimproved and advanced services, financial resources,innovation and new technology.

Source: African Banker, ‘Nigeria: A Compelling Telecom Growth’ p. 13, Issue 10 , 4th qtr 2009

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REFERENCES

www.ncc.gov.ng.com (2008);

Roller and Waverman (2001) Roeller, Lars-Hendrik, andLeonard Waverman (2001, ‘Telecommunications

Infrastructure and Economic Development: A SimultaneousApproach’ American Economic Review 91 (4): 909-23);

International Telecommunications Union Report on ICT inAfrica 2009 and Ndukwe 2009 ;

African Banker (2009). ‘Nigeria: A Compelling TelecomGrowth’ p. 13, Issue 10 , 4th qtr

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Information | Solutions | Value-added



THE FRONTEIRA ADVANTAGE

Our Practice AreasOur Reports

Economic & FinancialInformation

Strategic Solutions Based onEconomic Principles


1. Research outsourcing;2. Strategic business studies;3. Competitive intelligence;4. Market research;5. Value-based process reengineering;

6. Policy impact analysis;7. Futures studies/scenario planning;8. Corporate Training

1. The Fronteira Post2. Industry Competition Studies3. Pulse-On-Policy

4. States’ Economic Review

39



RESEARCH TEAM

Martin Oluba, Ph.D (Argentina), DBA (Switzerland);

Ngozi Edeagu, BSc (Nigeria); MSc (Oxon);

Jide Adesina, BSc (Econs); ACA;Bisi Olugasa, BSc (Agric Econs); MSc (Nigeria);

Victor Umoru, BSc (Econs);

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,

Victor Umoru led the rest of the team in developing this report. Kindlycontact him at [email protected] for further enquiries



DISCLAIMER

Opinions contained in this report represent ValueFronteira’s present opinion and are subject tochange without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith fromsources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, ismade with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to berelied upon as authoritative.

This document is bein rovided as information onl and no s ecific actions are solicited as a result of

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Understand In the Nigerian Telecommunications Industryx