Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society's Ability to Plan and Respond

Chet KoblinskyDirector, Climate Program Office

CIOSSOregon State University

Corvallis, August, 30, 2005

NOAA’s Climate Programs

Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society's Ability to Plan and Respond

Outcomes– A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time

scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions.

– Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions.

These outcomes require incremental, annual expansion of the observing system, focused research to understand key climate processes, improved modeling capabilities, and the development and delivery of climate information services.

http://www.spo.noaa.gov/noaastratplanning.htm

NOAA’s Climate Mission Goal

NOAA’s Climate Mission Goal

Performance Objectives– Describe and understand the state of the climate system

through integrated observations, analysis and data stewardship. [Observations and Analysis Program]

– Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with an increased range of applicability for management and policy decisions. [Predictions and Projections Program]

– Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on the forcing and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth’s climate. [Climate Forcing Program]

– Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems. [ Climate and Ecosystems Program]

– Increase number and use of climate products and services to enhance public and private sector decision making. [Regional Decision Support Program]

NOAA Climate Program Overarching Organization

NOAA Management

PPI NOAA Research

Climate Program Board

NOAA Climate Program Office

SAB

External Advisory Panel

Provides scientific and programmatic advice

Program Development

Made up of all NOAA LO’s

Chaired by Goal Lead

Program administration

Directs Planning and Programs.

Manages competitive grant programs: OGP, COSP, Argo, Arctic

Climate activities within Line Offices and extramural partners

Climate ProgramsObservations and Analysis Program – Tom Karl

Observations – Atmosphere, Ocean, ArcticData Systems – CLASS, Scientific Data StewardshipAnalyses – Ongoing analyses of the atmosphere

Climate Forcing Program – Dan AlbrittonAerosols and Atmospheric CompositionCarbon and Greenhouse Gases

Predictions and Projections Program – Ants LeetmaaModel DevelopmentOperational PredictionsLong-term Projections

Climate and Ecosystems – Ned CyrNorth Pacific Climate Impacts on Ecosystems

Regional Decision Support – Robert LivezeyResearch – RISA, SectorsTransition – NCTPOperations

Competitive Research Programs

• Observations and Analysis Program Climate Change Data and Detection Program (CCDD) Climate Observations Program

• Climate Forcing Program Atmospheric Climate and Climate Program (ACC) Global Carbon Cycle Program Science (GCC)

• Predictions and Projections Program Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA) Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CVP) Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction Program (CDEP)

• Regional Decision Support Program Sectoral Application and Research Program (SARP) Regional Integrated Science and Support Program (RISA) NOAA Climate Transition Program (NCTP)

OCO

GCOS

CCDD

ACC

GCC

CPPA

CVP

CDEP

SARP

RISA

FY05 Program

CDEP

CCDD

ACCGCC

CPPA

CVP

SARPRISA

Ocean Obs

GCOS

FRN released in March via Grants.GovFY06: 289 proposals receivedFY05: 225 proposals, 78 funded, average award $92K/yr

217 existing grants with an average award of $217K

Program Thrusts in FY05 - FY06

• FY05 Carbon Aerosols Ocean Obs

• FY06 Ocean Obs: Tropical Moorings - Indian Ocean Scientific Data Stewardship Ongoing Analyses of the Atmosphere Aerosols - indirect effect RISA

Future Directions

• Observations and Analyses– Arctic and IPY– Atmospheric Observations– Scientific Data Stewardship and CLASS

• Climate Forcing– Water Vapor– Regional emissions

• Predictions and Projections– Climate Test Bed– Earth System Modeling

• Climate and Ecosystems– Climate impacts on ecosystem – California Current LME

• Decision Support– Sectors: Drought (NIDIS), Coasts, urban, socio-economic– Operational climate services – who should do it?