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2211

Central VisayasCentral Visayas

WesternVisayasWesternVisayas

PagadianPagadian

ButuanButuan

DavaoDavao

KoronadalKoronadal

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Cagayande Oro

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1. Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao2. South Cotabato, Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat,

Sarangani and General Santos City

Moro Gulf

Celebes Sea

Sulu Sea

BoholSea

Davao Gulf

MALAYSIA

Basilan Isl.

Jolo Isl.

Tawi Tawi Isl.

S U L UA R C H I P E L A G O

Bohol Isl.Negros Isl. Cebu Isl.

Dinagat Isl.

Siagra Isl.

NPA-CPP 148 (32%)

Unknown 128 (28%)

MILF 117 (25%)

ASG 57 (12%)

ArmedAttack

181 (39%)

IED 104 (23%)

Kidnapping 61 (13%)

Grenade 50 (11%)

Arson 49 (11%)

Hostage 13 (3%)

Bombing 1 (0.2%)

NPA-CPP (32%)

Unknown (28%)

MILF (25%)

ASG (12%)

Other (3%)

Incidents Over Time

Other 9 (3%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

July - Dec. 2008(150)

Jan. - June 2009(117)

July - Dec. 2009(90)

Jan. - June 2010(102)

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Three major groups operate in discrete geographic regions across Mindanao:

Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in central-to-western areas;

New People’s Army - Communist Partyof the Philippines (NPA-CPP) in eastern to-central areas; and,

Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in western areas.

Approximately 39% of incidents were armed conflicts, 23% were by IEDs, and 13% were kidnappings.

Armed attacks accounted for 85% of all deaths and IED attacks accounted for 44% of all injuries and 9% of all deaths.

Incidents by TypeIncidents by Group

PHILIPPINES

BRU.

MALAYSIAINDO.

VIET.CAMB.

THAI.

LAOS

Mindanao

Suspected Perpetrators

NPA-CPP

Unknown

ASG Other groups

MILF

Number of Violent Attacks

11 - 256 - 101 - 5

Region boundaryRegion capital«

0 50 10025 mi

0 50 10025 km

October 26, 2010 - U284 STATE (HIU)Page 1 of 3

Names and boundary representation are not necessarily authoritative.

UNCLASSIFIED

HUMANITARIAN INFORMATION UNIT

hiu_info@state.govhttp://hiu.state.gov

U.S. Department of State

Sources: USG; National Counterterrorism CenterUNCLASSIFIED

Conflicts Without Borders: Mindanao, PhilippinesReported Conflict Incidents (July 2008 - June 2010)

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ARMMARMM11

22

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Celebes Sea

Bohol Sea

Davao Gulf

PhilippineSea

CotabatoCotabato

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SantosCity

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City

Displacement Extent - Sepember 2008 Displacement Extent - September 2010

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

September 2008 June 2010

Steady Decrease in the Number of Total IDPs in Registered Evacuation Centers

395,301

250,000

117,514

August 20090

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Sultan Kudarat(June 2010)

Cotabato(June 2010)

Maguindanao (June 2010)

Maguindanao (Sept. 2010)

Maguindanao (Sept. 2010)

7,020 9,432

101,062

69,32780,232

Total Displacement in Registered Evacuation Centers Constrained to Three Provinces

DSWD* Estimate

IOM**Estimate

* Department of Social Welfare and Development** International Organisation for Migration

PHILIPPINES

BRU.

MALAYSIAINDO.

VIET.CAMB.

THAI.

LAOS

Mindanao

Sea

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Region capital

Selected populated place

Region boundaryProvince boundary

Area of displacement

0 50 10025 km

0 50 10025 mi

1. Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao2. South Cotabato, Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani and General Santos City

October 26 2010 - U287 STATE (HIU)Page 2 of 3

Names and boundary representation are not necessarily authoritative.

UNCLASSIFIED

HUMANITARIAN INFORMATION UNIT

hiu_info@state.govhttp://hiu.state.gov

U.S. Department of State

Sources: USG, International Organiation for Migration, United Nations Office for the Coordination ofHumanitarian Affairs, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Government of the Republic

of the Philippines (GRP) National Disaster Coordinating Council, GRP Department of Social Welfare and DevelopmentUNCLASSIFIED

Conflicts Without Borders: Mindanao, PhilippinesReduced Displacement Amidst Continued Insecurity (July 2008 - Sept. 2010)

Determining reliable figures on the number of IDPs remains a challenge, since displacement in Mindanao is characterized by both frequent and temporary population movements. Discrepancies between government and international agency figures have been reported often, with the government typically issuing lower figures.

Armed Groups

MILF – The Moro Islamic Liberation Front split from the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) in 1977. MILF claims to represent the interests of Muslims, known as the Bangsamoro people. The approximately 12,000 strong MILF was formed due to the MNLF's reluctance to launch an insurgency against the Armed Forces of the Philippines when the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) rejected MNLF’s demand for an independent Moro Islamic state and sent troops to maintain order.

NPA-CPP – The New People's Army (NPA) is the military wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP). It was founded in 1969 with the aim of overthrow-ing the GRP through guerrilla warfare.

ASG – The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) is a small but active Muslim terrorist group that split from MNLF in the early 1990s. The group’s stated goal is to promote an independent Islamic state in western Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago. ASG is composed of several semi-autonomous factions with several hundred active fighters and about 1,000 supporters.

Other Perpetrators

Al-Khobar – Allegedly composed of former Muslim rebels, the group is report-edly linked to the MILF, although MILF denies any involvement in the group’s activities.

Ampatuan – The Ampatuan family is a Muslim clan allied in the 1970s with President Ferdinand Marcos. The Ampatuans are one of the many powerful families that maintain informal private armies. Several clan leaders face murder charges for alleged roles in a 2009 massacre.

Bag-ong Ilaga – The Bag-ong Ilaga is a Christian vigilante group opposing the MILF, MNLF, and other groups that it deems as “terrorists”. It is a continuation of the Ilaga Christian vigilante group that last operated in the 1970s.

BNLA – The Bangsamoro National Liberation Army is reportedly allied with the MNLF and claimed responsibility for a roadside bombing on Jolo Island in September 2009.

MNLF – The Moro National Liberation Front emerged in the early 1970s and sought an independent Islamic nation in the Filipino islands with sizeable Muslim populations. It signed a peace agreement with the GRP in 1996.

Recent Chronology of Conflict and Displacement

2008

In August, the MILF broke a ceasefire and the ensuing violence between the ArmedForces of the Philippines (AFP) and the MILF led to significant displacement inportions of western Mindanao. By September, up to one million were affected, with400,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), including over 100,000 living in more than160 evacuation centers, according to the GRP National Disaster Coordinating Council.

2009

Between August 2008 and July 2009, an estimated 760,000 people were affected by the conflict and 400 combatants and civilians were killed or died due to illness in IDP camps.

In July, the GRP and the MILF agreed to a ceasefire and both sides agreed to facilitatethe return of tens of thousands of IDPs and the removal of unexploded ordnance.Over 250,000 people remained displaced, with over 100,000 living in 147 evacuationcenters in the provinces of Maguidanao, North Cotabato, and Sultan Kudarat.

2010

In May, Benigno S. Aquino III was elected President and vowed to secure a peace deal with the MILF. Peace talks resumed, and the MILF vowed to provide security for returning IDPs.

Registered displacement-

tion sites, while others were staying with relatives and friends, according to the GRP Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD).

Migration estimates there are 80,232 IDPs in evacuation centers, 5,475 home-based IDPs, 9,863 IDPs moved to resettlement areas, and 16,475 IDPs relocated. According to GRP estimates, there are 69,327 IDPs in 52 evacuation centers, 11,490 IDPs relocated, and 4,545 IDPs are reintegrated into new areas.

Unregistered displacementrido) triggered by land disputes, election-related violence, and

economic rivalries contribute to a rising number of displaced people throughout the year, although they are not considered IDPs by the DSWD. Approximately 70 percent of the population own guns in Mindanao.

rido and 135,358 due to flashfloods, according to DSWD.

Insecurity and the impact of seasonal rains continue to impede the IDPs return.

October 26 2010 - U287 STATE (HIU)Page 3 of 3

Names and boundary representation are not necessarily authoritative.

UNCLASSIFIED

HUMANITARIAN INFORMATION UNIT

hiu_info@state.govhttp://hiu.state.gov

U.S. Department of State

Sources: USG, International Organiation for Migration, United Nations Office for the Coordination ofHumanitarian Affairs, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Washington Post

Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) National Disaster Coordinating Council, GRP Department of Social Welfare and DevelopmentUNCLASSIFIED

Conflicts Without Borders: Mindanao, PhilippinesArmed Groups and Recent Chronology (September 2010)