UNCLASSIFIED Navy AviationUNCLASSIFIED 30 Year Aviation Plan • 2nd submission of a long-range, fixed-wing aviation procurement plan Guided by the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review

UNCLASSIFIED Navy AviationBuilding The Future Fleet

RDML Mike Manazir (N880)Head, Strike Aviation Programs

Professional Aerospace Maintenance Symposium29 June 2011

UNCLASSIFIED

Outline

• 30 Year Aviation Plan• Fiscal Realities• POM 13 Outlook, Program Updates

2 UNCLASSIFIEDPRE-DECISIONAL INTERNAL WORKING PAPERS – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

UNCLASSIFIED

30 Year Aviation Plan

• 2nd submission of a long-range, fixed-wing aviation procurement plan Guided by the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Pl b itt d tl ith N ’ FY12 b d t t C• Plan submitted concurrently with Navy’s FY12 budget to Congress

• Shaped by four strategic priorities: Prevailing in today’s wars

Preventing and deterring conflict Preventing and deterring conflict

Preparing to defeat adversaries and succeed in a wide range of contingencies

Preserving and enhancing the all-volunteer force

• The Department’s future fixed-wing aviation force must be able to carry out orThe Department s future fixed wing aviation force must be able to carry out or contribute to the following six key joint missions: Defend the United States and support civil authorities at home

Conduct counterinsurgency, stability, and counterterrorism operations

Build the capacity of partner states

Deter and defeat aggression in anti-access environments

Prevent the proliferation of and counter weapons of mass destruction

Operate effectively in cyberspace


Operate effectively in cyberspace.

UNCLASSIFIED

30 Year Aviation PlanUNCLASSIFIED

30 YEAR AVIATION PLAN•Forecast of USN, USMC and USAF aircraft through year 2041•Included RDT&E and APN1-4 funding projections•Plan lays out replacement T/M/S within 30-yr window•Survivable & Relevant: Capabilities, Capacity, Programming

F d P C F-18E/F replacementC-2A replacementE-2D replacementT-45C replacementP-8A replacementBAMS replacement

- Forward Presence Construct- Force Structure Transition•Cost Risk Summary- Affordability based on sustaining

FY16 f di l l th h 2041

UNCLASSIFIED

TACAIR RoadmapUNCLASSIFIED

Training RoadmapUNCLASSIFIED

Maritime RoadmapUNCLASSIFIED

Helicopter RoadmapUNCLASSIFIED

Transport RoadmapUNCLASSIFIED

USMC Aviation Transition

Today Tomorrow

MH-60R/S replacementMQ-8B replacementMH-53 replacement

FY16 funding levels through 2041


F/A-18A-D

Increasingly capable, NettedForce

CapabilitiesPrecision StrikeStealthAnti-Air WarfareElectronic AttackSuppression/Destruction

of Enemy Air DefensesClose Air SupportISRAir RefuelingReliabilitySupportabilityMaintainability

EA-6BF/A-18 E/F

& EA-18G

JSF

E-2C E-2D

C-2AC-XX

N-UCAS

UCLASS

Prog

ram

s tr

ansf

erre

d

to

N2/

N6


CapabilitiesImproved flight performance.Digital cockpits.Modernized Avionics.Reliable platforms.Improved curriculum.Better prepares students for tomorrow’s aircraft.

TH-57B/C

T-34C

T-6A/B

TC-12B/T-44A

T-39N/G T-2C

TH-57D

T-44 Replacement

T-45C Sustainment

Advanced simulation reduces risk, cost.

Smaller, More Capable

ForcePrimary training

21

T-45A/C

T-6A/B


CapabilitiesPersistent ASWISRASuW

Persistent ISRStrike Support Tactical ESM

Information OpsMulti-INT ISRStrike Targeting

P-8A

P-3C

VPU Smaller, Netted Force

EP-3

BAMS

P-8A

Prog

ram

str

ansf

erre

dto

N2/

N6

BAMS


CapabilitiesAnti-Surface Warfare (ASuW)ISRAnti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)

Combat SARMine Counter-measures Logistics

MH-60S

SH-60B

CH-46DCH-46D


Force

HH-1NMH-60R

MH-53ESH-60F

HH-60H

UH-3H


C-20G

Capabilities

C-40As and C-130ssustain the fleet with

flexible, time sensitive logistics support to

Navy ComponentCommanders

C-40A: Twice the cargo Twice the range

Twice the availabilityof the C-9B/DC-9

C-40A

C-9B/DC-9

C-130J

C-130T


ForceC-40A


TodayKC-130T/J

CH-46E

UH-1NAH-1W

ISR ServicesSHADOW

CH-53ECH-53D

F/A-18AV-8BEA-6BVH-3

VH-60

TomorrowKC-130J

MV-22

UH-1YAH-1Z

STUASGroup-4

CH-53K

F-35B JSF

VXXTBD


UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

30 Year Aviation Plan Way Ahead

• Strategy needs to be developed for future submissions Current discussion is not affordable given plan constraints

Planning for new platform developments needs to start now to replace aging inventoryo Investment in an advanced engine program (VCAT/ADVENT)

o Investment in Adaptive structures/A2AD enablers

o Investment in the Army’s Future Vertical Lift Demonstrator program

Reduced Naval Aviation TOA

• Proposed plan demonstrates affordability and maintains inventory Aligns with previous years plan

Mitigates SLEP cost for Super Hornets

• Many unknowns still exist that will impact long range plan JSF Next Generation Jammer

UCLASS

Next Generation Air Dominance

Follow on A/A and A/G Weapons

NETWORKS/Tactical Data Links

FVTL


UNCLASSIFIED

Future Carrier Air Wing

NOTIONAL CVW OF THE FUTURE COMPRISED OF:UCLASS NGAD UNMANNED INTEGRATION• UCLASS…NGAD – UNMANNED INTEGRATION

• 44 STRIKE FIGHTER (F/A-18, JSF) AIRCRAFT TACAIR Integration: MOU signed 14 Mar 2011, Delta +5 (highest integration to date)

• 5 EA-18G AIRBORNE ELECTRONIC ATTACK (AEA) AIRCRAFT• 5 E-2D ADVANCED HAWKEYE AIRCRAFT• 19 MH-60R/S HELOS - 11 ON THE CARRIER / 8 DISPERSED THROUGH THE CARRIER STRIKE GROUP (CSG)• 2 CARRIER ONBOARD DELIVERY (COD) AIRCRAFT AUGMENT THE ENTIRE CSG


UNCLASSIFIED

Carrier Air Wing Evolution

CVWToday

CVW2020

CVW2025-2030y

F/A-18E x 12

F/A-18F x 12

F/A-18E x 12

F/A-18F x 12

2025 2030UCLASS

F-35C

F/A-18C x 10

F/A-18C x 10

F-35C x 10

F-35C x 10

F-35C

F-35C

EA-6B x 4

E-2C x 4

EA-18G x 5

E-2D x 5

C 2 ( l) 2

EA-18G

E-2D

C-2 x 2

SH-60F/H x 7

C-2 (repl) x 2

SH-60S/R x 19

UCLASS

C-2 (repl)

SH-60S/R x 19


UCLASSNGAD development

UNCLASSIFIED

Outline

• 30 Year Aviation Plan• Fiscal Realities• POM 13 Outlook, Program Updates


UNCLASSIFIED

10-Year Cyclical DoD Outlays

600

650

Vietnam GWOT FY13 FY17

400

450

500

550 VietnamGulf War I

GWOT

B

~$425B

FY13 FY17

250

300

350

400~ 10 Years

FY08

$B

POM-13

FYDP

100

150

200Outlay*

Mean Outlay

0

50

FY68

FY72

FY76

FY80

FY84

FY88

FY92

FY96

FY00

FY04

FY08

FY12

FY16

Underlying*Source: CSBA (includes supplemental

requests for GWOT operations)


DOD CYCLES MAY, BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO, SUPPORT NAVY’S FY17 TOPLINE

UNCLASSIFIED

Future OCO Uncertainty

CY10$B

$138 $136 11.48 9

Loss of Purchasing Power

OCO Requested

CY10$B

$140$138

$120 $119 $119

$128$129

8.9

Future OCO Unknown

$116$119 $119

Baseline Funding$98


UNCLASSIFIED

DoN Program Movement, PB12 to POM-13

$2,000

TY$M

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$1 000

-$500

$0APN

MCN MPN

OMN OPN

PANMC R&D

SCN WPN

-$2,000

-$1,500

-$1,000

$6 000$8,000

$10,000TY$M

PB11 to PB12

-$4,000-$2,000

$0$2,000$4,000$6,000

APN

MCNMPN

OMN

OPN

R&DPANMC

SCNWPN


Source: PBIS April 22, 2011 N8F Controls vs. PB12

-$8,000-$6,000$ ,

APN to R&D largely due to JSF

UNCLASSIFIED

Considerations Going Forward

• Navy’s force structure today is the minimum required to meet current military strategy Survive defend the status quo Survive – defend the status quo

• In our currently funded strike fighter recapitalization path we will be forced to accept risk in presence and/or capacity Synergy between CNAF/HQMC/COMFRC/OPNAV/NAVAIR is critical to strike fighter inventory

management strategy

Adherence to Service Life Management Plan is essential

• What does the future of Naval Aviation look like? I t t U d A i l V hi l i t N l A i ti Integrate Unmanned Aerial Vehicles into Naval Aviation

It’s time to start new programs like; NGAD, Future Vertical Lift (FVL), C-2 Replacement, NGM

Currently only scheduled to procure F-35, MV-22, H-1 and CH-53K in FY17 and out

• NUFEA• NUFEA TransCom take-over of all commercial variant aircraft


UNCLASSIFIED

Outline

• 30 Year Aviation Plan• Fiscal Challenges• POM 13 Outlook, Program Updates


UNCLASSIFIED

POM-13 Changing Environment

• Negative growth• Historic TOA distribution is changing

Manpower accounts are inflating at rates greater than the OSD composite rates

Readiness requirement continues to outpace our ability to resource

Defense Health Plan costs increasing

• Procurement accounts will continue to shift over time to support manpower and readiness requirement growth

• Affordability now a key driver• Reduced future OCO forces readiness migration into base• Reduced future OCO forces readiness migration into base• Emphasis on the ship building program, information dominance, UAS, energy


UNCLASSIFIED

POM-13 Reality

‐‐‐‐‐ Increased Fiscal Pressure ‐‐‐‐‐

MSR/MYP, 17.5%

SCN, 15.2%

RDTEN

OPN, 2.4%Limited Options

$4.3B Bogey

over FYDP

BISOG, 27.4%

RDTEN, 6.3%

OMN, 2.6%

WPN

P-8/JSF, 25.0%

Non-FencedRDTEN

OPNOMNWPN

non-Fenced, 39.9%

WPN, 3.6%

JSF

Competing Priorities(CNAF, WCP, FEA)

WPNP-8AF-35C

Competing Requirements(SCN, More Ships added in FYDP)

P-8A transition- DEPSECDEF Guidance

- USMC Transition plan


Limited options with increased risk

UNCLASSIFIED

TACAIR Roadmap

EA-6BF/A-18 E/F

Increasingly capable,

CapabilitiesPrecision StrikeStealthAnti-Air Warfare

EA 6B& EA-18G

JSF

F/A-18A-D

NettedForce

Anti Air WarfareElectronic AttackSuppression/Destruction

of Enemy Air DefensesClose Air Support

JSF

N UCAS

UCLASS

sfer

red

N

6 Close Air SupportISRAir RefuelingReliabilitySupportabilityE 2C E 2D

N-UCAS

ogra

ms

tran

to N

2/N

SupportabilityMaintainabilityE-2C E-2D

C-XXPr

o


C-2A

UNCLASSIFIED

F-35 Watch ItemsFOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY // REL TO USA, GBR MOD, ITA MOD, NLD MOD, TUR MND, CAN DND, AUS DOD, DNK MOD, and NOR MOD

• Timeline for initial unmonitored LRIP flight clearance• Software concurrency in development, test progress

L lif t t l t• Low life structural parts • Wet runway braking and test

F-35B STOVL Watch Items F-35C CV Watch Items• BF-6 airworthiness• STOVL envelope expansion• Weight

Shipboard Ops

• CF-2/3 deliveries• Horizontal Tail EHA heating• Launch Bar redesign• MLG retract times• Shipboard Ops

• High buffet loads on doors• Aux Air Inlet door redesign• Tires/brakes

• MLG retract times• Approach speed• Weight


UNCLASSIFIED

Training Roadmap

CapabilitiesImproved flight performance.Digital cockpits.Modernized Avionics.Reliable platforms.

TH-57B/C TH-57D

Improved curriculum.Better prepares students for tomorrow’s aircraft.

T-34C

T-44 Replacement


ForcePrimary

T-6A/B

T-6A/B

T 45C Sustainment

Primary training

TC-12B/T-44AT-45C Sustainment

Advanced simulation reduces risk, cost.

T-45A/C


T-39N/G T-2C18

UNCLASSIFIED

Maritime Roadmap

C bilitiP-3C

CapabilitiesPersistent ASWISRASuW

P-8A

Persistent ISRStrike Support Tactical ESM

VPU Smaller, Netted

P-8A

Information OpsMulti-INT ISRStrike Targeting

Force

rogr

ams

ansf

erre

do

N2/

N6

BAMSEP-3

BAMS

Pr tra tBAMS


BAMS

UNCLASSIFIED

Helicopter Roadmap

SH-60BCapabilitiesAnti-Surface Warfare (ASuW)ISR

HH-1NMH-60R

Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)Smaller,

More Capable UH-3H

Combat SARMine Counter-measures

pForce

MH-53ESH-60F

Logistics

MH-60SCH 46DCH-46D

HH-60H


CH-46D

UNCLASSIFIED

Rotorcraft GapToday:Today:• Current combat operations are Vertical Lift (VL)

centric• 550 Americans and 403 Rotorcraft across DoD

l i O /O f 1 O 01 30 S 10lost in OIF/OEF from 1 Oct 01 – 30 Sep 10• Future conflicts will likely involve complex

expeditionary ops in urban areas or littorals requiring increased VL capabilities

• Current platforms will not be able to address these future operational scenarios – limited growth potential

Options to keep rotorcraft in the fight:• The longer we delay making an investment decision increases the risk & cost in meeting 2030

operational requirements and reduces the opportunities for breakthrough technologies 1. Extend Current Programs

• 20-40 year old helicopters & tiltrotors will need tech infusion to remain affordable and capable– Inherent limitations in current designs prevent next generation capabilities

2. New / Next-Generation PORs (JMR, FVL, JHL)


( , , )• Requires increased funding - Current profiles do not support

– Near term S&T. . . . . . Out year RDT&E

UNCLASSIFIED

Transport Roadmap

CapabilitiesC-40A

C-40As and C-130ssustain the fleet with

flexible, time sensitive C-9B/DC-9logistics support to

Navy ComponentCommanders Smaller,

More Capable

C-20G

C-40A: Twice the cargo Twice the range

C-130JMore Capable

ForceC-40A

Twice the availabilityof the C-9B/DC-9


C-130T

UNCLASSIFIED

USMC Aviation Transition

TodayKC-130T/J

TomorrowKC-130J

CH-46E MV-22

UH-1NAH-1W

ISR Services

UH-1YAH-1Z

STUASSHADOW

CH-53ECH-53D

Group-4

CH-53K

F/A-18AV-8BEA-6B

F-35B JSF


VH-3VH-60

VXXTBD

UNCLASSIFIED

PEO(A) USMC Portfolio Summary• CH-53K CDR Complete • KC-130J Harvest Hawk – Deployed Oct 2010p y• UC-12W IOC – Dec 2010

AH 1Z IOC F b 2011• AH-1Z IOC – Feb 2011• VH-3 Lift Improvement Program IOC – Mid 2011• VXX MS A – Early FY12

MV 22 M lti Y 2 A d FY13• MV-22 Multi-Year 2 Award – FY13• CH-53K 1st Flight – FY14

24 UNCLASSIFIEDPRE-DECISIONAL INTERNAL WORKING PAPERS – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTIONUSMC Rotorcraft Inventory Being Revitalized

UNCLASSIFIED

Discussion

Documents

UNCLASSIFIED Navy AviationUNCLASSIFIED 30 Year Aviation Plan • 2nd submission of a long-range, fixed-wing aviation procurement plan Guided by the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review