UMAC data callpage 1 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF EMC Operational Models North American Mesoscale...
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UMAC data callpage 1 of 34NAM – HiResW - SREF EMC Operational Models North American Mesoscale (NAM) Modeling System Geoff DiMego, MMB Chief, and Eric Rogers,
UMAC data callpage 1 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF EMC Operational
Models North American Mesoscale (NAM) Modeling System Geoff DiMego,
MMB Chief, and Eric Rogers, Environmental Modeling Center NOAA /
NWS / NCEP [email protected][email protected]
Slide 2
UMAC data callpage 2 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Content Description
of the current modeling system and its data assimilation
components. Future plans for the next 5 years. Existing model
verification statistics documentation and associated web sites.
Sources and selection of requirements and development path.
Slide 3
UMAC data callpage 3 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Current System
Description A full description of the current NAM modeling &
data assimilation system with full references can be found at
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/misc/nam_2015_specs/NAM_2015.html
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/misc/nam_2015_specs/NAM_2015.html
Parent runs over continent at 12 km Runs out to 84 hr four times
per day Model top is 2 mb with 60 vertical layers Inline 1-way
interactive nests cover CONUS at 4km, Alaska at 6km, Hawaii at 3km
and Puerto Rico at 3km, and run out to 60 hr A placeable Fire
Weather nest runs out to 36 hr at 1.33km when placed inside CONUS
nest or at 1.5km when placed inside Alaska nest
Slide 4
UMAC data callpage 4 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF CFSv3 Convective
Allowing Data Assimilation ARW Convective Allowing Data
Assimilation NMMB 3D URMA / RUA / AoR ARW HRRRE members CONUS and
Alaska NMMB HRRRE members CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico NMMB
Storm Scale Ensemble members within CONUS and/or Alaska GDAS GFS
GEFS Hurricane NAMext S R E F S R E F S R E F S R E F RTOFS
Original March 2013 Projection for End State of 2 petaflop WCOSS
~2018
Slide 5
UMAC data callpage 5 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Start of WCOSS
Phase1 ~Current End of WCOSS Phase 1 ~2016 End of WCOSS-era 2
petaflop Machine SREF continental scale WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, NMMB
WRF-ARW & NMMB 7 each = 21 members 16 km 10 each = 20 members
~12 km 10 each = 20 members ~9 km (parent) 35 levels 6 hourly to 84
hr 40-60 levels NARRE-TL run hourly to 18 hr 6 hourly to 84 hr
50-60 levels NARRE run hourly to 24 hr 6 hourly to 96 hr Product
streams for all scales will need to be added, consolidated,
repurposed & renamed. Products may have later delivery times.
Convection-Allowing-Scale Irregular suite of guidance 3-6km
[HiResWindows & NAM nests] ~6 hourly to 48/60 hr for CONUS,
Alaska, HI, PR Single hourly 3 km HRRR & NAM nest Run to 15 hr
for CONUS Upgrade irregular suite to ~3 km 6 hourly to 48/60 hr for
CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR HRRRE Multiple hourly 3 km Run hourly to 24
hr 6 hourly extended to 60 hr for CONUS, Alaska, Hi, PR Storm Scale
Single placeable sub-nest 1.33-1.5 km Run 6 hourly to 36 hr Single
placeable/movable sub-nest 1-1.5 km Run 6 hourly to 36 hr Multiple
placeable/movable sub-nests: ~1 km run hourly to 18 hr and Run 6
hourly to 36 hr Original: Mesoscale Ensembles Replace Regional
Deterministic Guidance WILL BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE
Slide 6
UMAC data callpage 6 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Plans for the
future-1: All regional guidance moving to ensemble basis Following
the Way Forward laid out in the May 2010 NWS/OST White Paper by
Eckel, Glahn, Hamill, Joslyn, Lapenta & MassWhite Paper
Continental scale covering North America and adjacent waters at
~9-12km will be called the Standard Resolution Ensemble Forecast
[SREF] system. This new SREF will subsume: the current RAP, the
current NAM, the current SREF [Short Range Ensemble Fcst], the
current NARRE-TL. The acronym NARRE will no longer be used.
Slide 7
UMAC data callpage 7 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Plans for the
future-2: All regional guidance moving to ensemble basis The
convection-allowing scale ensemble suite will be made up of smaller
fixed-domain runs [possibly inline nested] at ~3km and will be
called the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast [HREF see more
here].here HREF domains will include at least CONUS and Alaska with
Hawaii and Puerto Rico possible. HREF will subsume: the current
HiResWindow (except Guam), the current NAM nests, the upcoming
NAMRR nests [see much more here],here the current CONUS HRRR, the
upcoming Alaskan HRRR. Prior systems & acronyms HRRRE, NSSE,
and NCASE will no longer be used.
Slide 8
UMAC data callpage 8 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Storm Scale
Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) will be pursued by a small number of
placeable fixed and/or moving nests at ~1km or better. SSEF will
subsume NAMs Fire Weather / IMET Support nests. SREF (possibly
not), HREF, and any SSEF nests embedded within its members, will
run [at least] hourly and make short range forecasts to ~24hr Both
SREF and HREF forecasts at 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z will be run to
longer ranges: SREF to 84 or 96hr HREF nests to 48 or 60hr. Plans
for the future-3: All regional guidance moving to ensemble
basis
Slide 9
UMAC data callpage 9 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF NAM Model
verification statistics and web sites Variables routinely verified
against sfc obs: Accumulated precipitation (3-h/24-h) Shelter
T/Td/RH and 10-m wind Sea-level pressure Variables routinely
verified against upper-air obs: Heights Temperature Wind Specific
& Relative Humidity Sensible weather quantities against obs:
CAPE, CIN, Visibility, Ceiling Height, cloud amount, PBL height
Grid versus grid [analysis]: Reflectivity (composite, 1 km, hybrid
scan), echo top
Slide 10
UMAC data callpage 10 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Models Routinely
Verified courtesy of Perry Shafran Models verified using Grid2obs
NAM NAM nests (CONUS, AK, HI, PR) HiResWindow SREF RAP HRRR GFS
DGEX RTMA (CONUS, AK, HI, PR) URMA Fire-weather nest Smartinit NGAC
CMAQ (Ozone and PM) Models using Grid2grid NAM (cloud, firewx,
reflectivity, URMA NAM CONUS nest(cloud, echo top, firewx, URMA)
HiResWindow (cloud, echo top, reflectivity, URMA) RAP (cloud,
reflectivity, URMA) HRRR (cloud, firewx, reflectivity, URMA) GFS
(cloud) SREF NAEFS GEFS CMC HYSPLIT (smoke and dust)
Slide 11
UMAC data callpage 11 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Precipitation
Verification at EMC courtesy of Ying Lin Contingency table-based
statistics (from which ETS, bias, probability of detection,
extremal dependence indices and many other scores can be computed,
with statistical significance) and SL1L2 calculations. 24-hrly and
3-hrly for NCEP operational models and parallel model runs; 24-hrly
for international models. Fractions skill scores for NCEP opnl and
para model runs. Monthly/month-to-date scores for NCEP and
international models (updated daily):
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores/
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores/ Recent
verification stats for mesoscale opnl vs. para models (updated
daily):
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores.paramodels/
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores.paramodels/
Daily side-by-side precip forecast (opnl and para, int'l) vs.
analysis page:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/daily/
Slide 12
UMAC data callpage 12 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF NAM model
verification statistics and web sites Cumulative statistics by
season and/or experiment for NAM parallel tests, listed on NAM
parallel log page, see
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/paralog/paralog.namx_2013.html
for NAM 2014 implementation Precipitation Daily 24-h QPF model vs
observed plots :
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/daily/
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/daily/ OPS vs
Parallel NAM :
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores.paramodels/
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores.paramodels/
Surface / upper air verification NAM vs GFS vs RAP
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/mmbverif/http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/mmbverif/
OPS vs Parallel NAM :
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/mmbverif.namplls/,
andhttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/mmbverif.namplls/
http://emc-ls-sand02.ncep.noaa.gov/EMC_VSDB_verif/index.cgi
(internal NCEP use
only)http://emc-ls-sand02.ncep.noaa.gov/EMC_VSDB_verif/index.cgi
Slide 13
UMAC data callpage 13 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Web sites
describing NAM upgrades and their associated performance Cumulative
& comprehensive on-line list of all major Mesoscale Modeling
Branch implementations since 1993, including links to Technical
Procedures Bulletins, Decision Briefings to the NCEP Director, and
all MMB presentations for annual NCEP Production Suite Reviews
since 2003 :
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/eric.html#TAB4
Slide 14
UMAC data callpage 14 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Sources of
Requirements Feedback from monthly meetings with NCEP Service
Centers (SPC, WPC, AWC) Feedback from monthly Synergy meeting with
NCEP Centers and NWS Regions Feedback from NCEP Centers, NWS
Regions at the annual NCEP Production Suite Review Attendance and
interactions at testbed experiments and projects (SPC/NSSL Spring
Program, WPC/HMT Winter Weather Experiment and Flash Flood
Experiment) Assessment of model performance by the EMC Model
Evaluation Group (MEG) Direct contact on model problems by users
from NWS or private sector
Slide 15
UMAC data callpage 15 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Sources of
Requirements [Common throughout MMB] Developers own discovery of
forecast deficiency or bugs Forecaster/customer direct feedback
Weekly MEG briefings Monthly meetings with NCEP centers (SPC, WPC,
AWC) Monthly SYNERGY meetings List-serve / forums Testbed
experiments & projects [e.g. SPC/NSSL Spring Program, WPC/HWT
Flash FLood & Winter Wx experiments and AWC Aviation Testbed]
Bi-annual Friends+Partners [aka Family of Services] meetings Annual
NCEP Production Suite Review Ideas / hot topics from workshop,
conferences and literatures
Slide 16
UMAC data callpage 16 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Selection of
development path Requirements / capabilities of evolving model
system Prioritized by needs of shareholders, in-house expertise,
resource constraints Specific NAM examples QPF biases : addressed
by internal expertise (convection, microphysics) with close
interactions with NCEP/NWS customers via weekly meetings and MEG
Aviation issues : internal-external collaboration with AWC to
identify and address NAM deficiencies in ceiling height and
visibility
Slide 17
UMAC data callpage 17 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Development Path
[Common within MMB] To match most egregious shortcoming to
available expertise and/or mature techniques from literature /
research community. By available, we mean the expertise is purely
internal (EMC developers), an internal-external collaboration /
partnership (such as DTC and other NCEP centers), or imported
(visitor program). If no "low-hanging fruit" or "shovel-ready"
techniques to transition, then the next most egregious shortcoming
would be considered for the next upgrade bundle.
Slide 18
UMAC data callpage 18 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF EMC Operational
Models High Resolution Window Matthew Pyle Environmental Modeling
Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP [email protected]
Slide 19
UMAC data callpage 19 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF HiResWindow:
Recent Chronology of Operations at NCEP
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/NAM/exdata.php#TAB4
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/NAM/exdata.php#TAB4 Pre-WRF NMM at
NCEP February 2002: HiResWindow runs upgraded to use 8 km NMM
replaces 10 km Eta (hydrostatic)HiResWindow WRF ARW & NMM at
NCEP September 2004: HiResWindow the first operational WRF v1.3 in
NCEP prod suite: 8 km NMM & 10 km ARW replace single 8 km
pre-WRF NMMHiResWindow June 2005: HiResWindow upgraded to 5.1 km
NMM & 5.8 km ARW with explicit convectionHiResWindow September
2007: HiResWindow expanded domain, upgrade to WRFv2.2.1 4 km NMM +
5.1 km ARWHiResWindow March 2011:HiResWindow upgrade to WRFv3.2,
add Guam runs, expand PR, add bufr soundingsHiResWindow WRF ARW +
NEMS NMM at NCEP June 2014: HiResWindow upgrade NEMS-NMMB replaces
WRF-NMM, full CONUS & Alaska twice per day, increase horizontal
resolution,35->40 levels, RRTM, WSM6 & Ferrier-Aligo June
2014 Other NMM at NCEP April 2004 thru present: for SPC and the
NSSL/SPC Spring Program, expanding & evolving routine daily
developmental runs of ~4 km WRF- NMM with explicit
convectionNSSL/SPC Spring Program
Slide 20
UMAC data callpage 20 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Current Overview
3-4 km grid spacing, no parameterized convection Two dynamical
models: WRF-ARW and NEMS-NMMB, each with its own physics suite
Twice daily runs to 48 h over CONUS and four non- CONUS domains
[Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Guam] Initialized from RAP (CONUS)
and GFS (non-CONUS) analyses Complements the NAM nests, helping to
provide a variety (multi-model, multi-analysis) of high-resolution
model solutions in the NCEP suite, forming a pseudo-ensemble. Makes
up 4/7 of SPCs Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity [SSEO].
Slide 21
UMAC data callpage 21 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Current Overview
06Z,18Z 00Z,12Z + Guam 00Z,12Z 3.6 km NMMB 4.2 km WRF-ARW 3 km NMMB
3.5 km WRF-ARW HI/Guam/PR : 3 km NMMB 3.8 km WRF- ARW 00Z,12Z
Slide 22
UMAC data callpage 22 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF HiResWindow
Configurations (No Parameterized Convection) Dynamic Core NEMS-NMM
August 2013 WRF-ARW v3.5 Horizontal Spacing3.0-3.6 km3.5-4.2 km
Vertical Domain 40 levels 50 mb top Sigma-Pressure 40 levels 50 mb
top Sigma PBL/TurbulenceMYJYSU MicrophysicsFerrier-AligoWSM6
Land-SurfaceNOAH Radiation (Shortwave/Longwave)
RRTM/RRTMDudhia/RRTM Advection of Passive Variables Conservative
Positive Definite Monotonic Positive Definite
Slide 23
UMAC data callpage 23 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Future Plans Most
HiResWindow forecasts and product generation to be subsumed by HREF
- a multi- model ensemble run at convection allowing scales (see
NAM slides). HiResWindow for Guam will likely continue to run in
current configuration (single WRF-ARW and single NMMB run).
Slide 24
UMAC data callpage 24 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Verification
Surface and upper-air verification:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/mmbverif.hiresw_new2007/
Precipitation verification:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores/ Longer-term
comparisons of surface, upper air, and precipitation just between
WRF- ARW and NMMB within HiResWindow
https://docs.google.com/a/noaa.gov/presentation/d/1Oj37Xgn-
ul6lAQFWiJRyZO-n5Z5TgDfu9GozuBpPR5E/edit?usp=sharing
Slide 25
UMAC data callpage 25 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Sources of
Requirements [Common within MMB] Forecaster/user direct feedback
Weekly MEG briefings Monthly meetings with appropriate NCEP centers
Monthly SYNERGY meetings List-serve/forums Testbed experiments
& projects [e.g. SPC/NSSL Spring Program, WPC/HWT Flash FLood
& Winter Wx experiments and AWC Aviation Testbed] Bi-annual
Friends+Partners [aka Family of Services] meetings Annual NCEP
Production Suite Review Ideas / hot topics from workshop,
conferences and literatures Developers own discovery of forecast
deficiency or bugs
Slide 26
UMAC data callpage 26 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Development Path
[Common within MMB] To match most egregious shortcoming to
available expertise and/or mature techniques from literature /
research community. By available, we mean the expertise is purely
internal (EMC developers), an internal-external collaboration /
partnership (such as DTC and other NCEP centers), or imported
(visitor program). If no "low-hanging fruit" or "shovel-ready"
techniques to transition, then the next most egregious shortcoming
would be considered for the next upgrade bundle.
Slide 27
UMAC data callpage 27 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF EMC Operational
Models Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Jun Du Meteorologist,
Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP
[email protected]
Slide 28
UMAC data callpage 28 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Configuration:
16km, L40, 26 members, 0-87hr, North America domain, 4 cycles per
day (03, 09, 15 and 21z) IC uncertainty: multi-analysis (no own DA
but directly using NDAS, GFS, RR), blended perturbation (regional
Breeding + global EnKF), multi-LBCs from GEFS (updated 3hrly)
Physics uncertainty: multi-model (nmmb and arw), multi-physics,
quasi- stochastic physics Post-processing: bias correction and
downscaling Products: individual members, mean, spread,
probability, percentiles, range, member ranking, clusters
Chronology of SREF implementations can be found at
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/NAM/exdata.php#TAB4
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/NAM/exdata.php#TAB4 Description of
SREF
Slide 29
UMAC data callpage 29 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Recent Chronology
of NMM & ARW in SREF in Operations at NCEP December 2005: Short
Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system adds WRFv2.0: 3 members
each of 40 km NMM & 45 km ARWShort Range Ensemble Forecasting
October 2009: SREF upgrade to WRFv2.2.1, bias corrected, add 2
members each, and increase resolution to 32 km NMM & 35 km
ARWSREFbias corrected August 2012: SREF upgrade to WRF v3.3, all
members 16km & 35 lvl, drop Eta&RSM, add NEMS-NMMB, use 3
base analyses GDAS, NDAS & RAP, ensemble mean bufr soundings,
downscaled to RTMASREF April 2014: SREF incremental update and
bug-fix bundle, add bufr sounding sites, refine: LSM, GFS physics
in NMMB members, clustering, treatment of frozen precip, and
UPP.SREF
Slide 30
UMAC data callpage 30 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF 1. Continental
scale2. Regional scale3. Local scale ~9-12km North America WRF-ARW,
NEMS-NMMB Parametrized physics SREF ~3km CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR
WRF-ARW & NEMS-NMMB Convection-allowing physics HREF ~1km
Placeable or storm-following WRF-ARW & NEMS-NMMB
Cloud-resolving physics SSEF Standard-Resolution Ensemble Forecast
6-? members Hourly update run to 18-24hr High-Resolution Ensemble
Forecast 6-? members hourly update run to 18-24hr Storm-Scale
Ensemble Forecast 1-2 [per member ?] hourly update run to 18-24hr
SREF Standard-Resolution Ensemble Forecast HREF High-Resolution
Ensemble Forecast 26 members 6 hourly runs to 84-96hr ? members 6
hourly extended from 18-24hr to 48-60hr Future 3-tier regional
ensemble system (SREF & HREF & SSEF) See also NAM slides ?
Is there a need?
Slide 31
UMAC data callpage 31 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF 1. Continental
scale2. Regional scale3. Local scale ~9-12km North America WRF-ARW,
NEMS-NMMB Parametrized physics SREF ~3km CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR
WRF-ARW & NEMS-NMMB Convection-allowing physics HREF ~1km
Placeable or storm-following WRF-ARW & NEMS-NMMB
Cloud-resolving physics SSEF Standard-Resolution Ensemble Forecast
6-? members Hourly update run to 18-24hr High-Resolution Ensemble
Forecast 6-? members hourly update run to 18-24hr Storm-Scale
Ensemble Forecast 1-2 [per member ?] hourly update run to 18-24hr
SREF Standard-Resolution Ensemble Forecast HREF High-Resolution
Ensemble Forecast 26 members 6 hourly runs to 84-96hr ? members 6
hourly extended from 18-24hr to 48-60hr Future 3-tier regional
ensemble system (SREF & HREF & SSEF) See also NAM slides ?
Is there a need? ? Is there sufficient need?
Slide 32
UMAC data callpage 32 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Verification EMC
grid2grib verification (operational):
http://emc-ls-sand02.ncep.noaa.gov/EMC_VSDB_verif_Ensemble/index.cgi
EMC grid2obs verification (operational):
http://emc-ls-sand02.ncep.noaa.gov/EMC_VSDB_verif/index.cgi EMC
precipitation verification package (operational) see NAM slide
Developers own verification tools:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/byang/fcstoplpar.html (basic
variables)
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/byang/fcstoplparppt.html
(precipitation)
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF-Docs/verif/html/wind.html
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/VERIFICATION_32km/new_html/system_48km_3
0day.html
Slide 33
UMAC data callpage 33 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Sources of
Requirements [Common within MMB] Forecaster/user direct feedback
Weekly MEG briefings Monthly meetings with appropriate NCEP centers
Monthly SYNERGY meetings List-serve/forums Testbed experiments
& projects [e.g. SPC/NSSL Spring Program, WPC/HWT Flash FLood
& Winter Wx experiments and AWC Aviation Testbed] Bi-annual
Friends+Partners [aka Family of Services] meetings Annual NCEP
Production Suite Review Ideas / hot topics from workshop,
conferences and literatures Developers own discovery of forecast
deficiency or bugs
Slide 34
UMAC data callpage 34 of 34NAM HiResW - SREF Development path
To match most egregious shortcoming to available expertise and/or
mature techniques from literature / research community. Available
means the expertise is purely internal (EMC developers), an
internal-external collaboration /partnership (such as DTC and other
NCEP centers), or purely external (visitor program). If no
"low-hanging fruit" or "shovel-ready" techniques to transition,
then the next most egregious shortcoming would be considered for
the next upgrade bundle. To establish EMC near real-time parallel
for NCEP centers feedback prior to formal code-freezing NCOs
parallel.