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Why is deep decarbonization different? Deep decarbonization ( > 80% low carbon): Exclusive reliance on capital intense generators increases importance of utilization Lack of coincidence between supply and demand on seasonal and diurnal basis creates utilization challenge Nuclear/CCUS + solar offer highest utilization 3 Dispatchable Low Carbon (DLC)
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Ultra Low Carbon Electricity Systems: Intermittent (Renewables) or Baseload (Nuclear and CCS)?
By: Jared Moore, Ph.D.Independent Energy Tech/Policy Advisor
Commissioned by the Energy Innovation Reform Project
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1) For cost effective modest decarbonization goals ( < 60% low carbon), more RE because generators with lowest LCOE generally dominant
2) For cost effective deep decarbonization goals ( > 80% low carbon), less RE because generators with highest utilization generally dominant
How much renewable energy should be on the grid?
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Why is deep decarbonization different?
Deep decarbonization ( > 80% low carbon):
Exclusive reliance on capital intense generators
increases importance of utilization
Lack of coincidence between supply and demand on seasonal and diurnal basis creates utilization challenge
Nuclear/CCUS + solar offer highest utilization Dispatchable Low Carbon (DLC)
Seasonal Mismatch between Supply and Demand (ERCOT)
January
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easi
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Aver
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Wind (left axis)
Solar (left axis)
Average Demand (right axis)
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Utilization maximizing Wind/Solar combination to meet 80% of load: Average Demand
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Seasonal Mismatch between Supply and Demand (ERCOT)
Seasonal Oversupply: Low utilization of renewable energy
Seasonal Undersupply: Low utilization of “conventional” capacity
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Four Example Days in March Four Example Days in August
Resolving persistent periods of oversupply and undersupply would require seasonal utilization of storage or demand response.
1 Tesla Powerwall/home,25% peak demand, 60 GWh, andsaturates at 3 am on first day.
Storage depletes at 4 am on the first day.
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.840%
50%
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100%
Percent of Load Met with Low Carbon Energy [%]
Mar
gina
l Util
izati
on o
f Low
Car
bon
Ener
gy [%
]
Utilization maximizing wind/solar combination no storage
+ 1 Powerwall/home
+ 2 Powerwalls/home
+ 6 Powerwalls/home
+ 3 Powerwalls/home
DLC and solar no storage
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More storage can increase utilization of low carbon energy, but then takes on problem of low utilization itself
6th Powerwall is about an order of magnitude less effective at increasing utilization than the first.
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Four Days in AugustFour Days in March
Utilization Maximizing Combination of Low Carbon Energy: 90% DLC, 10% Solar, and 0% Wind
Dispatchable Low Carbon (DLC)
Solar
Demand
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.650%
55%
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All Solar All Wind
2/3 Solar 2/3 Wind
Starting Renewable Portfolio [%]
Util
izati
on o
f the
Mar
gina
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Gen
erat
or to
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ach
80%
Low
Car
bon
Ener
gy [%
]
Cases with storage
Cases without Storage
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Renewable deployment, especially if dominated by wind, decreases utilization of future DLC generators
Storage increases utilization of DLC generation
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Which Combination of Wind, Solar, and DLC Minimizes Costs?
1) Scale wind, solar, or baseload output within an Excel-based, hourly economic dispatch model using hourly (8760) demand from ERCOT
2) Assume:– Value of reliability or Equivalent load Carrying
Capability (ELCC) @ $330/MW-day– Wind LCOE @ $80/MWh, ELCC starting at 25%– Solar LCOE @ $90/MWh, ELCC starting at 50%– DLC LCOE @ $100/MWh, ELCC of 95%
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%0%
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Low Carbon Energy Required [%]
Cost
Min
imiz
ing
Ener
gy P
enet
ratio
n [%
]
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Wind ($80/MWh)
Solar ($90/MWh)
DLC ($100/MWh)
Contribution of Generators Dependent on Decarbonization Desired
Without Storage
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%0%
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Low Carbon Energy Required [%]
Cost
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imiz
ing
Ener
gy P
enet
ratio
n [%
]
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Wind ($80/MWh)
Solar ($90/MWh)
DLC ($100/MWh)With Storage(1 Tesla Powerwall/home)
Without Storage
Contribution of Generators Dependent on Decarbonization Desired
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Policy Implications:• Cost effective modest decarbonization is not necessarily
the path to cost effective deep decarbonization
• Weak carbon price does not send adequate price signals to incent DLC generation. Instead, may create low utilization problem for these generators.
• Policy intervention, such as “Capacity Portfolio Standard”, may be more cost effective for deep decarbonization
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Thermal inertia of earth drives diurnal and seasonal mismatch between low carbon supply and electricity demand
Peak electricity demand occurs during minimum wind supply and later
than peak solar supply.
Peak solar supply Minimum solar supply
Peak wind supply: Temperature delta between North Pole and equator is greatest