UKOOA/DTI Industry Activity Survey 2003 Presentation to …webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20101227132010/http:/... · UKOOA Activity survey 2003 November 2003 UKOOA 2003 Survey-

Raymond Hall, BP 21-Nov-03

EAG/31/03

UKOOA/DTI Industry Activity Survey 2003

Presentation to EAG 21st November 2003

Raymond Hall, BP - EAG

UKOOA Activity survey 2003

November 2003

UKOOA/DTI Industry activity survey 2003

Presentation to EAG 21st November 2003

Ray Hall-EAG


November 2003

UKOOA 2003 Survey- ContextIn August 2003 a joint DTI/UKOOA survey was launched to gather data on all identified projects across the UKCS.

Identifies all projects in Operators portfolio ranging from fields in production to Possible developments.

Exploration & Appraisal activity excluded

Data presented on Risked basis

Probable & Possible Projects slipped according to probability

All analysis is on the slipped cases

Probability Years delaybelow 20% 420% to 39% 340%-59% 260% to 79% 1above 80% (no delay) 0


November 2003

Project components

Number of fields/projects

Oct 2003 Survey

Oct 2002 Survey

Oct 2001 Survey

Sept 2000 Survey

Sanctioned 270 260 248 257Incremental 135 144 96 97Probable 43 51 64 65Possible 40 33 84 56Total 488 488 492 475


November 2003

Oil & Gas production forecast

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mbo

epd

2003 survey2002 survey

Production 2003-10 lower by 74 million boe

2010 production up by 100 mboepd


November 2003

UKCS production to 2020

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Mbo

epd


Production up by 100 million boe


November 2003

Liquids production

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Liqu

ids

mbp

d

PossibleProbableIncrementalSanctioned

2003-10 production down 30 million bbls


November 2003

Gas production

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mill

ion

scfp

d


2003-10 production down 250 bcf


November 2003

Oil & Gas production- elements (2003 survey)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mbo

epd


PILOT Vision

571 mboepd gap

Intermediate target389 mboepd gap


November 2003

Oil & Gas production- elements (2003 survey)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Mbo

epd


Possible - - - - 1 35 130 182 211 Probable 1 7 19 110 266 602 612 569 515 Incremental - 4 147 310 446 547 532 438 385 Sanctioned 4,155 4,054 3,570 3,191 2,691 2,254 1,877 1,599 1,317

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


November 2003

Oil & Gas Production- elements (2002 survey)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Prod

uctio

nm

boep

d

Possible ProbableIncrementalSanctioned

PILOT Vision

Intermediate target

307 mboepd gap

667 mboepd gap

Missing elements:•Exploration•Undeveloped discoveries•Brown fields


November 2003

Unslipped production

-500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mbo

epd


2005 gap = 227mboepd2010 gap = 500 mboepd


November 2003

Costs


November 2003

Capex build up

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Cap

ex £

mill

ion

real

Possible - - - 16 116 325 626 480 452 Probable 108 262 938 1,185 1,080 581 243 285 270 Incremental 6 132 868 832 890 522 390 251 160 Sanctioned 3,723 3,031 1,799 1,092 674 401 271 201 142

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


November 2003

Capex comparison

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Cap

ex £

mill

ion

real

2002 survey 3,971 3,361 2,881 2,801 2,370 1,814 1,114 612 567 2003 survey 3,837 3,425 3,605 3,124 2,760 1,829 1,530 1,217 1,024

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Capex 2003-10 increased by £3 billion


November 2003

Opex elements

-500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Ope

x £

mill

ion

real



November 2003

Opex components

-500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Ope

x £

mill

ion

real

TariffsOther opexWells


November 2003

Trends since 2000

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Cap

ex £

mili

on re

al

2000 survey 3,666 3,001 1,843 1,112 736 458 468 224 162 2003 survey 3,837 3,425 3,605 3,124 2,760 1,829 1,530 1,217 1,024

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mbo

epd


Production

Down 1 billion boe

Capex Up £10 billion


November 2003

Cumulative removal costs

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

Cum

ulat

ive

rem

oval

cos

ts £

mill

ion

real


Cumulative costs increased by £ 600 million


November 2003

Remaining reserves from 1/1/2003

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Res

erve

s m

illio

n bo

e

Gas 4,430 627 772 330 Oil 5,405 915 925 687

Sanctioned Incremental Probable Possible


November 2003

UKOOA Survey- Statistics (2003 Survey)

Field Category No of Fields Reserves Million boe Capex £ millions

Sanctioned fields 270 (260) 9835 (9251) 8203 (5480)

Incremental 135 (144) 1542 (1643) 4135 (3556)

Probable fields 43 (51) 1698 (2218) 5029 (5315)

Possible fields 40 (33) 1018 (933) 2967 (2391)

Total 2002-2040 488 (488) 14092 (14044) 20334 (16743)

Data from 1/1/2003Figures in brackets denote 2002 survey data

Documents

UKOOA/DTI Industry Activity Survey 2003 Presentation to …webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20101227132010/http:/... · UKOOA Activity survey 2003 November 2003 UKOOA 2003 Survey-