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James S. TulenkoJames S. TulenkoProfessor, University of FloridaProfessor, University of Florida
Director, Laboratory for Development of Director, Laboratory for Development of Advanced Fuels and MaterialsAdvanced Fuels and Materials
President, ANSPresident, ANS
ANS Chapter, RaleighANS Chapter, RaleighEastern Carolinas SectionEastern Carolinas Section
Thursday, Dec. 2, 2004Thursday, Dec. 2, 2004
James S. TulenkoJames S. TulenkoProfessor, University of FloridaProfessor, University of Florida
Director, Laboratory for Development of Director, Laboratory for Development of Advanced Fuels and MaterialsAdvanced Fuels and Materials
President, ANSPresident, ANS
ANS Chapter, RaleighANS Chapter, RaleighEastern Carolinas SectionEastern Carolinas Section
Thursday, Dec. 2, 2004Thursday, Dec. 2, 2004
Nuclear Energy and the Nuclear Energy and the EnvironmentEnvironment
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The American Nuclear SocietyThe American Nuclear Society
The Society for the The Society for the Advancement of Nuclear Advancement of Nuclear
Science and Technology Science and Technology to Benefit Humanityto Benefit Humanity
The Society for the The Society for the Advancement of Nuclear Advancement of Nuclear
Science and Technology Science and Technology to Benefit Humanityto Benefit Humanity
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• Founded Dec., 1954 at the National Founded Dec., 1954 at the National Academy of Sciences in D.C.Academy of Sciences in D.C.
• Founded as non-profit, international, Founded as non-profit, international, scientific and educational organization.scientific and educational organization.
• Integrates all disciplines of nuclear Integrates all disciplines of nuclear science and technology.science and technology.
• Founded Dec., 1954 at the National Founded Dec., 1954 at the National Academy of Sciences in D.C.Academy of Sciences in D.C.
• Founded as non-profit, international, Founded as non-profit, international, scientific and educational organization.scientific and educational organization.
• Integrates all disciplines of nuclear Integrates all disciplines of nuclear science and technology.science and technology.
The American Nuclear SocietyThe American Nuclear Society
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The American Nuclear SocietyThe American Nuclear Society
11,000 individual members11,000 individual members• 800 (7%) outside the United States800 (7%) outside the United States
• 47 countries represented47 countries represented
• 8% under 35; 15% over 668% under 35; 15% over 66
• ~700 with less than 5 years experience~700 with less than 5 years experience
• Under 35 group increased by ~40% Under 35 group increased by ~40% from 1999 to todayfrom 1999 to today
11,000 individual members11,000 individual members• 800 (7%) outside the United States800 (7%) outside the United States
• 47 countries represented47 countries represented
• 8% under 35; 15% over 668% under 35; 15% over 66
• ~700 with less than 5 years experience~700 with less than 5 years experience
• Under 35 group increased by ~40% Under 35 group increased by ~40% from 1999 to todayfrom 1999 to today
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ANS GoalsANS Goals
• To be the recognized leader for the advancement To be the recognized leader for the advancement of nuclear science and technology.of nuclear science and technology.
• To be members’ primary resource for To be members’ primary resource for professional development and knowledge professional development and knowledge exchange.exchange.
• To be publicly recognized as a credible source of To be publicly recognized as a credible source of nuclear science and technology information.nuclear science and technology information.
• To be an active contributor to, and participant To be an active contributor to, and participant in, nuclear science and technology issues.in, nuclear science and technology issues.
• To be the recognized leader for the advancement To be the recognized leader for the advancement of nuclear science and technology.of nuclear science and technology.
• To be members’ primary resource for To be members’ primary resource for professional development and knowledge professional development and knowledge exchange.exchange.
• To be publicly recognized as a credible source of To be publicly recognized as a credible source of nuclear science and technology information.nuclear science and technology information.
• To be an active contributor to, and participant To be an active contributor to, and participant in, nuclear science and technology issues.in, nuclear science and technology issues.
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Membership:Membership:
MembershipMembership 14,96914,969 10,59010,590 9,6639,663
StudentsStudents 1,5721,572 694694 1,1101,110
TotalTotal 16,54116,541 11,28411,284 10,77310,773
American Nuclear SocietyAmerican Nuclear Society
1993 1998 2003
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ANS on the MoveANS on the Move
• Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004
• Membership has increased for the Membership has increased for the first time in many years.first time in many years.
• Bottom Line: ANS is Growing Bottom Line: ANS is Growing after years of decline.after years of decline.
• Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004
• Membership has increased for the Membership has increased for the first time in many years.first time in many years.
• Bottom Line: ANS is Growing Bottom Line: ANS is Growing after years of decline.after years of decline.
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Abundant EnergyAbundant Energy
• Is the daily bread of Is the daily bread of civilizationcivilization
• Drives the economyDrives the economy
• Drives the quality of lifeDrives the quality of life
• Frees man to be creativeFrees man to be creative
• Is the daily bread of Is the daily bread of civilizationcivilization
• Drives the economyDrives the economy
• Drives the quality of lifeDrives the quality of life
• Frees man to be creativeFrees man to be creative
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Nuclear Energy – A Key Player Nuclear Energy – A Key Player In The U.S. Energy MixIn The U.S. Energy Mix
• Nuclear industry more efficient with improved Nuclear industry more efficient with improved economic competitiveness. Now 20% of electricity in economic competitiveness. Now 20% of electricity in U.S.U.S.
• Advanced designs will be much safer and cheaper, Advanced designs will be much safer and cheaper, fuel meltdowns impossible.fuel meltdowns impossible.
• Growing public awareness of the environmental Growing public awareness of the environmental benefits of nuclear.benefits of nuclear.
• Public approval is growing – now at 65%; 85% for Public approval is growing – now at 65%; 85% for technically educated college grads.technically educated college grads.
• The future of nuclear energy is very bright.The future of nuclear energy is very bright.
• Nuclear industry more efficient with improved Nuclear industry more efficient with improved economic competitiveness. Now 20% of electricity in economic competitiveness. Now 20% of electricity in U.S.U.S.
• Advanced designs will be much safer and cheaper, Advanced designs will be much safer and cheaper, fuel meltdowns impossible.fuel meltdowns impossible.
• Growing public awareness of the environmental Growing public awareness of the environmental benefits of nuclear.benefits of nuclear.
• Public approval is growing – now at 65%; 85% for Public approval is growing – now at 65%; 85% for technically educated college grads.technically educated college grads.
• The future of nuclear energy is very bright.The future of nuclear energy is very bright.
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Dramatic Increase in OutputDramatic Increase in Output
790,000790,000
576,862576,862
640,440640,440
673,702673,702
727,915727,915
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
1990 1994 1998 1999 2000 2005
Equal to 23 new 1,000-MW plants
Equal to 4 new 1,000-MW plants
753,90753,9000
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Nuclear Costs are at an All-Time LowNuclear Costs are at an All-Time Low(in constant 2001 cents/kWh)(in constant 2001 cents/kWh)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
Nuclear 1.68 Coal 1.80 Gas 6.08 Oil 4.93
Source: RDI /EUCG for Nuclear data, RDI/EUCG for Fossil Fuels. Converted to 2001 dollars by NEI
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NUCLEAR POWER FACTSNUCLEAR POWER FACTS
Worldwide:Worldwide:(36 Countries)(36 Countries)
441 Reactors, 2574 terawatt hours
31 Reactors under construction (several more ordered)
17% of world’s electricity
North North America:America:
118 Reactors, 118 Gigawatts
(103 in U.S. = 20% of electricity
15 in Canada = 12% of electricity)
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Electricity Price, 1970-2025Electricity Price, 1970-2025(2001 cents/kilowatt hour)(2001 cents/kilowatt hour)
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20250
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
History Projections
AEO2003
AEO2002
1970 2025Average nominal price
1.7
12.1
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Nuclear Capacity Factors:Nuclear Capacity Factors:All-Time HighAll-Time High
91.9
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02Year
Ca
pa
cit
y F
ac
tor
(%)
Source: Platts World Nuclear Performance, February 2003
79.5% in 199886.8% in 199989.6% in 200090.7% in 200191.9% in 2002
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Growth In Electric Demand Growth In Electric Demand for Developing Countriesfor Developing Countries
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Factors Motivating Use Of Factors Motivating Use Of Nuclear Power In ChinaNuclear Power In China
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Top 10 Nuclear CountriesTop 10 Nuclear Countries(1999 Generation)(1999 Generation)
727.9
375306.9
160.4110.9 97.8 91.2 70.4 70.1 67.4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
US France Japan Germany Russia Korea RP UK Canada Sweden Ukraine
billi
on k
ilow
att-
hou
rs
Measured by generation, U.S. Measured by generation, U.S. nuclear program is:nuclear program is:
as large as France and Japan (#2 as large as France and Japan (#2 and #3) and #3) combined; andcombined; and
larger than the other 7 nations in larger than the other 7 nations in the top 10 combinedthe top 10 combined
Source: IAEA
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How Do We Get Our EnergyHow Do We Get Our Energy
• CoalCoal
• GasGas
• OilOil
• NuclearNuclear
• HydroHydro
• CoalCoal
• GasGas
• OilOil
• NuclearNuclear
• HydroHydro
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Energy Output From Energy Output From Various FuelsVarious Fuels
TYPE FUEL (1kg)TYPE FUEL (1kg)
FIREWOODFIREWOOD
COALCOAL
OILOIL
URANIUMURANIUM
ELECTRICITY PRODUCED (kw-hr)ELECTRICITY PRODUCED (kw-hr)
11
33
44
400,000 (once-through)400,000 (once-through)
7,000,000 (re-cycled U and Pu)7,000,000 (re-cycled U and Pu)
(Ref: IAEA Bulletin, Vol. 42, No. 2, 2000)
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World Energy Consumption by FuelWorld Energy Consumption by Fuel1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)
1970 1980 1990 2001 2010 20250
100
200
300
400
500
600
700History Projections
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
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China Oil DemandChina Oil Demand
• China's oil imports leaped by 40 per cent in the China's oil imports leaped by 40 per cent in the first half of this year. It recently surpassed first half of this year. It recently surpassed Japan to become the world's second-biggest Japan to become the world's second-biggest oil importer. Its own oil production, once large oil importer. Its own oil production, once large enough to supply its needs, has fallen into enough to supply its needs, has fallen into steady decline. By the year 2020, China expects steady decline. By the year 2020, China expects to depend on imported oil for 60 per cent of its to depend on imported oil for 60 per cent of its oil supply, up from 36 per cent today, leaving it oil supply, up from 36 per cent today, leaving it increasingly vulnerable to an oil embargo or an increasingly vulnerable to an oil embargo or an unexpected cutoff of supplyunexpected cutoff of supply....
• China's oil imports leaped by 40 per cent in the China's oil imports leaped by 40 per cent in the first half of this year. It recently surpassed first half of this year. It recently surpassed Japan to become the world's second-biggest Japan to become the world's second-biggest oil importer. Its own oil production, once large oil importer. Its own oil production, once large enough to supply its needs, has fallen into enough to supply its needs, has fallen into steady decline. By the year 2020, China expects steady decline. By the year 2020, China expects to depend on imported oil for 60 per cent of its to depend on imported oil for 60 per cent of its oil supply, up from 36 per cent today, leaving it oil supply, up from 36 per cent today, leaving it increasingly vulnerable to an oil embargo or an increasingly vulnerable to an oil embargo or an unexpected cutoff of supplyunexpected cutoff of supply....
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China Oil DemandChina Oil Demand
• The Chinese government has reportedly The Chinese government has reportedly drafted a plan to build a 90-day strategic drafted a plan to build a 90-day strategic reserve of crude oil -- much bigger than its reserve of crude oil -- much bigger than its previous plan for a 30-day stockpile. It is previous plan for a 30-day stockpile. It is already building 52 massive tanks near the East already building 52 massive tanks near the East China Sea, south of Shanghai, to stockpile a China Sea, south of Shanghai, to stockpile a month's worth of oil. Each tank would hold month's worth of oil. Each tank would hold more than 25 million gallons.more than 25 million gallons.
• The Chinese government has reportedly The Chinese government has reportedly drafted a plan to build a 90-day strategic drafted a plan to build a 90-day strategic reserve of crude oil -- much bigger than its reserve of crude oil -- much bigger than its previous plan for a 30-day stockpile. It is previous plan for a 30-day stockpile. It is already building 52 massive tanks near the East already building 52 massive tanks near the East China Sea, south of Shanghai, to stockpile a China Sea, south of Shanghai, to stockpile a month's worth of oil. Each tank would hold month's worth of oil. Each tank would hold more than 25 million gallons.more than 25 million gallons.
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Emissions AvoidedEmissions AvoidedBy U.S. Nuclear Power PlantsBy U.S. Nuclear Power Plants
1973 - 20021973 - 2002NONOXX
40 million tons40 million tons
SOSO22
80 million tons80 million tons
CarbonCarbon3 billion tons3 billion tons
1973 - 20021973 - 2002NONOXX
40 million tons40 million tons
SOSO22
80 million tons80 million tons
CarbonCarbon3 billion tons3 billion tons
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COCO22 Emissions Fell 2/3 as a Result of Emissions Fell 2/3 as a Result of French Nuclear ProgramFrench Nuclear Program
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Challenges Facing NuclearChallenges Facing Nuclear
• Lower capital cost, and shorter construction Lower capital cost, and shorter construction time needed.time needed.
• Get on with the waste disposal solution, Get on with the waste disposal solution, including recycling spent fuel.including recycling spent fuel.
• Government paid insurance – Price Anderson.Government paid insurance – Price Anderson.• Lower proliferation threat for worldwide Lower proliferation threat for worldwide
deployment.deployment.• Gov’t support next generation of reactors.Gov’t support next generation of reactors.• Assure adequate trained manpower supply.Assure adequate trained manpower supply.
• Lower capital cost, and shorter construction Lower capital cost, and shorter construction time needed.time needed.
• Get on with the waste disposal solution, Get on with the waste disposal solution, including recycling spent fuel.including recycling spent fuel.
• Government paid insurance – Price Anderson.Government paid insurance – Price Anderson.• Lower proliferation threat for worldwide Lower proliferation threat for worldwide
deployment.deployment.• Gov’t support next generation of reactors.Gov’t support next generation of reactors.• Assure adequate trained manpower supply.Assure adequate trained manpower supply.
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Actions to Address ChallengesActions to Address Challenges
• Address security (proliferation) risk of nuclear Address security (proliferation) risk of nuclear materials without significantly impacting beneficial materials without significantly impacting beneficial use.use.
• Proceed with Yucca Mtn. repository and Advanced Proceed with Yucca Mtn. repository and Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative to address nuclear waste.Fuel Cycle Initiative to address nuclear waste.
• Address public fear of nuclear with scientific facts Address public fear of nuclear with scientific facts and grassroots personnel involvement.and grassroots personnel involvement.
• Develop program to address dwindling nuclear Develop program to address dwindling nuclear professionals and ANS membership.professionals and ANS membership.
• Address security (proliferation) risk of nuclear Address security (proliferation) risk of nuclear materials without significantly impacting beneficial materials without significantly impacting beneficial use.use.
• Proceed with Yucca Mtn. repository and Advanced Proceed with Yucca Mtn. repository and Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative to address nuclear waste.Fuel Cycle Initiative to address nuclear waste.
• Address public fear of nuclear with scientific facts Address public fear of nuclear with scientific facts and grassroots personnel involvement.and grassroots personnel involvement.
• Develop program to address dwindling nuclear Develop program to address dwindling nuclear professionals and ANS membership.professionals and ANS membership.
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DO
E I
nv
es
tme
nt
($ i
n M
illi
on
s)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Nu
mb
er o
f Stu
de
nts
UndergraduateStudent
Enrollment
Trends In EnrollmentTrends In EnrollmentTrends In EnrollmentTrends In Enrollment
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Grassroots InitiativeGrassroots Initiative
• Address public fears with Address public fears with scientific facts and by ANS scientific facts and by ANS members getting involved in members getting involved in local events, with local local events, with local media, and Representatives.media, and Representatives.
• Address public fears with Address public fears with scientific facts and by ANS scientific facts and by ANS members getting involved in members getting involved in local events, with local local events, with local media, and Representatives.media, and Representatives.
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Top Challenges for Next GenerationTop Challenges for Next Generation
• Continue professional development / Be Active!Continue professional development / Be Active!• Maintain the Safety Culture.Maintain the Safety Culture.• Engage local Legislators - Civics 101: Influence Engage local Legislators - Civics 101: Influence
the energy awareness of your Representative. the energy awareness of your Representative. • Deal with public opinion; changing the “Nuclear Deal with public opinion; changing the “Nuclear
Perception.”Perception.”• Bring reality into discussions of alternate energy.Bring reality into discussions of alternate energy.• Make a difference with your life & your career.Make a difference with your life & your career.
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SUMMARYSUMMARY• Nuclear produces 17 to 20% of electricity Nuclear produces 17 to 20% of electricity globally and in U.S. That percentage will grow.globally and in U.S. That percentage will grow.
• New plants will be ordered in U.S. within 5 yrs.New plants will be ordered in U.S. within 5 yrs.• Nuclear is already cleaner and safer than oil, Nuclear is already cleaner and safer than oil, gas, and coal, and has lower operating cost.gas, and coal, and has lower operating cost.
• Worldwide growth of elec. production will need Worldwide growth of elec. production will need nuclear to control environmental damage.nuclear to control environmental damage.
• Capital cost will fall to $1,000/megawatt, or Capital cost will fall to $1,000/megawatt, or lower, in new reactor designs. lower, in new reactor designs.
• Spent fuel (waste) and nuclear weapons Spent fuel (waste) and nuclear weapons proliferation are solvable political problems.proliferation are solvable political problems.
• Nuclear produces 17 to 20% of electricity Nuclear produces 17 to 20% of electricity globally and in U.S. That percentage will grow.globally and in U.S. That percentage will grow.
• New plants will be ordered in U.S. within 5 yrs.New plants will be ordered in U.S. within 5 yrs.• Nuclear is already cleaner and safer than oil, Nuclear is already cleaner and safer than oil, gas, and coal, and has lower operating cost.gas, and coal, and has lower operating cost.
• Worldwide growth of elec. production will need Worldwide growth of elec. production will need nuclear to control environmental damage.nuclear to control environmental damage.
• Capital cost will fall to $1,000/megawatt, or Capital cost will fall to $1,000/megawatt, or lower, in new reactor designs. lower, in new reactor designs.
• Spent fuel (waste) and nuclear weapons Spent fuel (waste) and nuclear weapons proliferation are solvable political problems.proliferation are solvable political problems.
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The FutureThe Future
““In science, credit In science, credit goes to the man who goes to the man who convinces the world, convinces the world, not the man to whom not the man to whom the idea first occurs.” the idea first occurs.” Charles Darwin
-Hopefully, Dr. James Lovelock will convince the World