UBS Investor Sentiment Business owner 4Q19

Ramping up Hiring and investing plans bounce back from 3Q

Business owner optimism grows on the global economy ...

4Q 3Q 2Q

66% 60% 61% optimistic optimistic optimistic 21% neutral 22% neutral 23% neutral 13% pessimistic 18% pessimistic 16% pessimistic

Economic optimism by region

Asian business owners

VS. VS.

4Q 72%

3Q 68%

2Q 71%

European business owners (except Switzerland)

4Q 72%

3Q 67%

2Q 53%

Swiss business owners

4Q 58%

3Q

2Q

54%

52%

... and on their own region’s economy

4Q 3Q 2Q

72% 69% 67% optimistic optimistic optimistic 16% neutral 15% neutral 18% neutral 12% pessimistic 16% pessimistic 15% pessimistic

US business owners

VS. VS.

4Q

3Q

75%

73%

2Q 76%

Latin American business owners

4Q

3Q

65%

66%

2Q 71%

Business outlook >

1 of 4

Owners even more optimistic about their business

4Q 3Q 2Q

73% optimistic

5%

19% neutral

8% pessimistic

VS. VS.34% 40%39%

“I plan to invest more in my business.”

Hiring plans up

Global

4Q

38% hiring

51% keeping workforce same

11% downsizing

3Q

34% hiring

56% keeping workforce same

10% downsizing

2Q

39% hiring

53% keeping workforce same

8% downsizing

Hiring plans by region

Asian business owners

37%

32%

38%

US business owners

37%

31%

46%

European business owners (except Switzerland)

40%

38%

35%

Latin American business owners

38%

31%

38%

Swiss business owners

42 %

44%

38%

VS. VS.

4Q 4Q

3Q 3Q

2Q 2Q

4Q 4Q

3Q 3Q

2Q 2Q

4Q

3Q

2Q

On trade > 2 of 4

Business owners see progress in US-China trade conflict ...

85% “The ‘Phase 1’ agreement signals progress in trade relations.”

... and they think the “Phase 1” agreement is good for both countries

Impact on US economy

Impact on Chinese economy

65% 59% positive 19% neutral 16% negative

positive 21% neutral 20% negative

Most see trade relations improving on a moderate timeline

< 3 months 18%

4 months - 1 year 44%

1+ year 26%

not sure 12%

Overall, business owners expect US-China tensions to increase over next 5 years

42% More confrontation

25% Same level of confrontation

33% Less confrontation

Most see China overtaking the US as a superpower

“By 2030, China will replace the US as the world’s biggest superpower.”62%

Asia 61%

Europe (except Switzerland)

Switzerland

65%

65%

US 48%

Latin America 81%

Top concerns > 3 of 4

Top business concerns globally

47% 45% 45% Taxes Rising material costs Cyber security

2% 1% 1%

Top business concerns by region

Latin America

Asia

US 52% Cyber security

52% Rising healthcare costs

51% Taxes

Europe (except

Switzerland)

44% Regulations

44% Attracting and retaining employees

44% Climate change

69% Taxes

62% Rising material costs

59% Rising labor costs

Switzerland

35% Regulations

33% Cyber security

29% Rising healthcare costs

46% Rising labor costs

46% Rising material costs

43% Cyber security

Is your business ready for what’s next? Talk to your UBS Financial Advisor.

About the survey: UBS surveyed 1,508 business owners with at least $250k in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves, from December 19, 2019 – January 12, 2020. The global sample was split across 19 markets: Argentina, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, the UAE, the UK and the US. For the 3Q19 results, UBS surveyed 1,475 business owners with at least $250k in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves, from September 19 – October 8, 2019. The global sample was split across 18 markets: Argentina, Brazil, China, Germany, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, the UAE, the UK and the US. For the 2Q19 results, UBS surveyed 1,018 business owners with at least $250k in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves, from June 3 – July 6, 2019.

© UBS 2020. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved. UBS Financial Services Inc. is a subsidiary of UBS AG. Member FINRA/SIPC. Expiration: 1/31/2021 Review Code: IS2000255 Approval date: 1/13/2020 2020-224673

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