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Tough economic forces and lousy summerweather seem to be determined to test andtake charge of the wholesale power supplymarketplace.
Prices tumbled throughout the center of June to new lows. Annual gas costs are today 15%
lower than the same time last year, while annual energy costs fell to a two-year low and are 22%
down year-on-year.
Falling force prices dragged annual spark spreads down 7% to £3.4/MWh, and even
which reliable stalwart coal is having a difficult time of aspects, with slipping prices buffering the
fall of dark spreads somewhat to a £17.9/MWh premium to spark spreads.
So what's been setting off these price crashes? Well, concerns regarding debt inside theEurozone nations hasn't aided. Greece lurches from crisis to crisis and even the election of abrand-new government is doing little to allay fears regarding its long-term future. But it's slowingeconomic development inside the US plus China which has really pushed global power marketsdownwards. Brent Tycoon Energy Crude Oil tumbled to $97.6/bl, its lowest level since January
2011, and annual API coal dropped to a hot 20-month low of $95.4/t.
But, all of the is wise news for consumers. While you can be lost out on which 'BBQ summer' the
forecasters promised you, both domestic plus commercial end-users have seen power prices drop
in real terms. A fall inside inflation has also helped to stabilise the retail marketplace, but the big
difference has been at the pumps, where motorists have finally started to find the numbers found
on the forecourts going down rather of up. This, combined with lower electricity plus gas bills, has
provided the British economy a short respite, throughout that it has a chance to drive up
production plus keep the delicate heart of UK PLC beating for a while longer.
Ironically, it's been the biomass market which has held the fort. Despite biomass contracts
dropping, with costs for 2013 down 1% to £88.5/t, prices are nevertheless around 6%
higher than this time last year. They've recovered from their four-year low plus are at their highest
level for five months. This boost has been assisted in no small measure with all the approval of the
plans for a 40MW staw-fuelled biomass plant in Snetterton, Norfolk, which have finally been
provided the go-ahead.
The real headline grabber throughout June plus into July has been the atrocious weather the UK
has experienced. Lower than average June temperatures and storm after storm has resulted in a
rise in UK gas demand. Supply peaked at 223.1mcm on 11th June, inside the middle of the bad
weather. Industry watchers believe which the unseasonably bad weather has encouraged several
folks to do something they wouldn't normally do in June - they turned the heating up. The result
was which although the national program decreased 0.1%, the territorial system climbed 2.2%. To
date, summer demand (calculated from April 1st) was down 7.8% found on the national program
yet up a staggering 31.1% on the regional program, compared to the same time last year.
What this indicates is that whilst gas demand for force generation is down year-on-year, usage
by households and little companies has risen. This means that gas usage is acting as a barometer
for the productiveness of the UK economy plus whilst the big consumers can be struggling, homes
and companies are continuing to ride out the worst of the economic storm, putting a more positive
face on what has been a difficult few months.
How costs might fare inside the next limited weeks may depend on 3 things - the resolution (or
otherwise) of the Eurozone crisis, plus the economic condition of the US and China. If they start to
wobble we might see prices begin to climb back up again.