PUBLIC OPINION
Two big questions:1.) How much impact should public opinion have
on govt. policy between elections?2.) How do we even know what
public opinion is?PUBLIC OPINIONWhy elections are imperfect
indicators of public opinion1.) Candidates represent packages and
combinations of issue positions2.) Opposing candidates often have
similar positions on important issues (Anthony Downs theory)3.)
Candidates often deliberately obscure their positions on issues4.)
Voters often vote on the basis of non-issue considerationsThe
Founders and the Progressives on the Impact of Public OpinionThe
Founders---Originally, the House of Representatives was the only
elected part of govt.---Trustee, rather than delegate, view of
representation was popular---Emphasis on rational deliberation
rather than passionate actionThe Progressives and Populists (late
19th-early 20th Century)Believed in much stronger and more direct
public impact on policy: proposed referenda, initiative, recall,
primary elections
How Do We Know What Public Opinion Is?1.) 19th and early 20th
Centuries Literary Digest Poll fiasco in 1936: why did it fail?2.)
Rise of more scientific polling: probability sampling and why it
worksEx. Simple random sample, random digit dialing, multi-stage
cluster sampling, stratified sample3.) Sampling ErrorTypical
margins for error for random samplen = 100 10.3n = 1500 2.6n = 500
4.5n = 2000 2.2
How Do We Measure Public Opinion contd4.) Other sources of error
in public opinion surveys besides sampling errora.) biased question
wording (intentional or unintentional)b.) interviewer effects,
social desirability effects the so-called Bradley effectc.)
unbalanced question wordingNone of these are figured into the
margin for error
How is US public opinion structured?1.) US political Culture:
almost universally shared, highly stable, commitment to abstract
ideas and principles, historic2.) Regional subcultures?3.)
Ideology: emphasis on certain aspects of US political culture as
opposed to others, general principles, not universally shared,
relatively stable, helps structure positions on specific issues of
the day4.) Positions on specific issues of the dayUS Political
Culture1.) Individualism2.) Distrust of Government3.) Faith in
free-market capitalism4.) Patriotism5.) Equality of opportunity
(equal starting line)6.) Relatively high religiosityIdeology in the
USDifferent ideologies are based on selective emphasis on some
aspects of US political culture, different interpretations of
cultural principlesHallmarks of ideology: stability and
predictability of opinions on specific issues (because theyre tied
to underlying general principles)1.) Mainstream (21st Century)
liberalism: more government intervention in the economy to promote
equality, less government intervention on moral issues (except for
guns!)2.) Mainstream (21st Century) conservatism: more government
intervention to promote morality, less government intervention in
the economy in order to promote individualism and free-market3.)
Libertarianism: less government intervention all around4.)
Populism/Communitarianism: more government intervention to promote
the will of the peopleIs Ideology a Good or Bad Thing?---Allows for
more efficient processing of political information---Helps to
mobilize and encourage political participation and political
interest---Leads to selective perception and ideological filtering
(the echo chamber)---Contributes to polarization and less civil
politics?Are Americans becoming more ideologically polarized? Or is
it just the elites?
Sources of Public Opinion1.) Political Socialization -- parents,
teachers, friends, churches, workplaces2.) Generational experiences
Civil War, Depression, WWII, Sixties, 9/113.) Life Cycle Effects4.)
News Media --- a brief historya.) the era of partisan media
(1790s-1880s)b.) mass market journalism (1880s-1960s)c.) the
cynical, investigative media (1960s-1990s)d.) narrowcasting and
infotainment (1990s-today)What Effects Does Media Have on Public
Opinion? Persuasion? Agenda-Setting? Framing? Reinforcement?
