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Twin defeats spark Democratic fearsBy: Jonathan Martin and Ben Smith and Jake ShermanSeptember 14, 2011 04:57 AM EDT

HOWARD BEACH, N.Y. The Democratic Partysrare loss

of a congressional seat in itsurban heartland Tuesday, accompanied by a blowout defeat in a Nevada special election,marked the latest in a string of demoralizing setbacks that threatened to deepen thepartys crisis of confidence and raise concerns about President Barack Obamas politicalfortunes.

In New York, Republican Bob Turnersoundly defeated Democrat David Weprin in a Housecontest that in the view of party leaders, at least featured an anemic urban machine,distracted labor unions, and disloyal voters. In Nevada, a consequential state for thepresidents re-election strategy, Democrats suffered a runaway loss rooted in a weakshowing in Renos Washoe County, a key bellwether.

Even before the polls closed, the recriminations something short of panic, andconsiderably more than mere grumbling had begun. On a high-level campaignconference call Tuesday afternoon, Democratic donors and strategists commiserated overtheirdisappointment in Obama. A source on the call described the mood as awful.

People feel betrayed, disappointed, furious, disgusted, hopeless, said the source.

Less expansive but equally telling were the remarks of House Democratic Whip StenyHoyer, who in a conversation with reporters Tuesday morning said bluntly that Obamawould take some blame for the two special election losses.

I think every election reflects on the person in charge, but do I think it is an overallstatement on the president alone? No, said Hoyer. Do I think it will be interpreted asbeing a statement on Obama? Thats probably correct.

A senior Hill Democratic aide was more direct in attempting to explain the New York loss:The approval ratings for the guy at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue cratered.

A Turner consultant, Steve Goldberg, validated that assessment: It was all Obama noteven a thought of anything else.

The presidents feisty new jobs plan has probably preempted open revolt in his party thougha Bloomberg poll released Wednesday morning found that 51 percent of Americans dont

believe it will help lower the unemployment rate. Senior party figures are on board with orare at least resigned to the White Houses leadership. And some Democratic insiderssought to put a better face on their diminished state - before adding that they wanted tosee a tougher Obama.

Lets face it - it has been a tough summer for Democrats, said Jack Quinn, a top lobbyistand former White House Counsel to President Clinton. But I really do think that peopleare feeling better.

Quinn said, however, that Obama must confront the GOP.

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They didnt get the House and say, We want half a loaf. Theyve said, we want the wholegoddamn oven, he argued. Its time for the president to really draw some hard lineshere.

Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), among the most senior House Democrats, sketched outthose lines.

The Republicans want us to repeal the 20th century, the New Deal, the Fair Deal, to turnus back to the robber barons running the country, and to eviscerate the environmental andother regulations to protect public health and safety, said Waxman. And to cut spendingin ways that would be very harmful to people who rely on government.

Others welcomed the notion of a new Obama even if message doesnt seem to have yetmade its way north to New York or west to Nevada.

Rep. Eliot Engel, a New York Democrat who represents parts of the Bronx and suburbanNew York, said the feisty Barack Obama, the one that we knew and loved and voted for in2008, reappeared last week.

I think and I hope that thats going to be the Obama were going to see from now toelection time, Engel said Tuesday, before dashing up to New York to help turn outDemocratic voters for Weprin.

But the partys structural weaknesses were on full display in the stunning New Yorkdefeatthe partys first loss of a Brooklyn or Queens congressional seat in a generation.The Queens Democratic Partys decision to nominate Weprin, an Orthodox Jewish memberof the state Assembly who lives in another district, was driven by the most blatant ethnicpolitics, said Mitchell Moss, a professor of urban planning at New York University. It wasan old-school play that failed: Turner fought hard for Jewish votes over the issues of Israeland same-sex marriage, and Orthodox leaders were well-represented at his victory party atan Italian restaurant in Howard Beach.

Much of New Yorks still -powerful labor movement, meanwhile, sat the race out distracted, demoralized, and with other fish to fry. The labor-backed Working FamiliesParty, a juggernaut in other city races, chose to put its resources Tuesday into a bitterinternecine battle with the Brooklyn Democratic organization leaving Weprin to rely onthe rusting party machine.

It was a nightmare scenario for Democrats that threatens to repeat itself on the nationallevel, as major unions turn away from their traditional level of engagement. AFL-CIOleaders have talked about focusing their spending on state-level races. The giant SEIU has

discussed replacing what had been an all-out campaign for Obama in 2008 with acampaign more focused on the issue of jobs.

And labor union leaders in Washington watched with frustration as a heavily Democratic,pro-union, blue-collar district slipped away.

Obama needs to reconnect with labor, get in the trenches with us again, said a veteranlabor official. There is, among my members, a sense of disconnect with him. He needs tosignal to us that he is a labor champion, not just supported by labor.


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And so as they eye Obamas re-election a year away, many Democratic leaders are takingan unexpectedly passive line. Theyre pinning their hopes on the chance that theRepublican Party nominates a figure who will, essentially, defeat him or herself.

Asked who hed like to see the Republicans nominate, Montana Democratic GovernorBrian Schweitzer suggested: Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry - those would allbe good ones to run against.

Ben Smith reported from Howard Beach, N.Y. Jonathan Martin and Jake Sherman reportedfrom Washington, D.C.

2011 POLITICO LLC


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Twin Defeats Spark Democratic Fears -