Turnout (VEP) increased substantially in 2004 2004:

59.6% 1972-2000 average 55.8% 1968

61.9% In 16 BG states 65.3% In 16 BG states

(2000)57.6%

Bush’s margin of victory was unusually small for second term winnerSince 1828, eleven U.S. incumbent

presidents have been reelected. Five presidents who had been “elevated” to the presidency have won their own second term.

Until 2004, all but Harry Truman had won by at least 6.0%

Harry S. Truman (1948) 4.5%

George W. Bush (2004) 2.9%

Bush’s popular vote margin was the narrowest since 1828.

Bush’s electoral vote margin (6.9%) was the second lowest “second term” margin since 1804.

Two thirds of the Republican net gains in the House were due to the Texas redistrictingRep/Dem House shares

2002 227/205/1

2004 233/201/1

Republican net gain: +6 Republican net gain in Texas

+4 Republican net gain

outside of Texas+2

Democrats held their own or gained ground in state races Governorships

Rep Dem2002 28 222004 28 22

State legislative seats 2002 Republican margin: 622004 Republican margin: 0

Partisan control of state legislatures

Rep DemDivided2002 21 17 112004 20 19 10*Nebraska is non-partisan)

Bush strongholds

Evangelical Prot. 77%

Wealthy voters 63%

White men 62%

Rural voters 59%

Southern voters 58%

Men 55%

White women 55%

Lower MC voters 53%

Married women 55%

Catholics 52%

Kerry strengths

African Americans 88%

minority vote 70%

urban (500,000+) voters 60%

white male unionists 60%

Asian Americans 58%

under 30 years old 55%

Post-grads 55%

Latinos/Hispanics 54%??

Red states/blue states

Red states/blue states adjusted for state population

Red counties/blue counties

Red counties/blue counties adjusted for population

Red counties/blue counties adjusted for Bush/Kerry margin proportions and total population