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Turning mobile growth into broadband success: Case Turning mobile growth into broadband success: Case
Study of Pakistan
Syed Ismail Shah, PhD
Chairman, Pakistan Telecommunication AuthorityE-mail: [email protected]
Evolution of Cellular Mobile Communication in Pakistan
2
3
• Total Spectrum offered was 2 lots with the following
configuration:
• Total Spectrum 2X13.6MHz
• 2X4.8MHz in 900MHz band and 2X 8.8MHz in 1800MHz
Evolution of Cellular Mobile Communication in Pakistan
• 2X4.8MHz in 900MHz band and 2X 8.8MHz in 1800MHz
band
• Existing Operators were to pay the same amount upon
expiry of license with spectrum normalization except for
Instaphone, who were only offered 2x7.38MHz in the 850
MHz band
Total Teledensity (Millions)
4
GSM Coverage
Data revenues
50.3
64.772.2
90
12.40%
13.70%
15.80%
16.40%
19.30%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Data Revenues in the Telecoms Sector
15.0
16.7
21.4
23.5
24.1
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Percentage
Quarterly Shares of Data Revenue in Total Cellular Reve
42.650.3
0.00%
5.00%
0
10
20
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Rs. Billion Percentage
• Revenue from data is now more than double what it was five years ago
• For cellular mobile segment, share of data revenue has crossed 24%
-
5.0
Oct-Dec-13
Jan -Mar-14
Apr -Jun 14
Jul - Sep 14
Oct-Dec-14
LDN Network Diagram
Fiber Backbone
LDN-T has developed its backbone Network covering 78 cities.Ring, Enhanced Ring, Mesh & Spur network topologies have been used to create backbone.
Entity LDN-T
Fibre
StandardMixture of G.655 & G.652
Cable
Standard
Direct Buried & Mixture of
24F & 48F
Length 6900 Km approx.
Cities
Covered78(4 Planned)
Topology Mesh, Rings & Spurs
O&M Internal (PMCL)
PTCL Fiber Footprint & Cross Border Links
PTCL(10,400KM) covering all major cities of Pakistan
D I Khan
Karak
Bannu
Ahmedbanda
Kohat
PeshawarAbbotabad
Mardan
Nowshera
Taxila
Islamabad
Gujar KhanJhelum
KharianMandiBahauddin
Layyah
Bhakkar
Sargodha
Chiniot
Faisalabad
Khushab
Mianwali
Kasur
Wagah
Pattoki
Raiwind
Lahore
GujratSialkot
Gujranwala
Sahiwal
GojraJhang
Wateen Long Haul Optical Fiber Cable Network providing connectivity from Karachi to Torkham
� 6000 + km, Nine Rings Redundancy going to 11 Rings
� 4649 Km Expansion under USF Projects
� 24 and 96 Core Fiber (Hybrid G652D and G655C)
� 163+ Sites for Add/Drop
� 4500 + Km Metro OFC in 50+ cities
Afghanistan via Torkham
Afghanistan via Chaman
China via Khunjrab
India via Wagha
Murree
Muslim Bagh Qila Saif Ullah
Zoib
Major Metro Fiber Cities
KarachiLahoreQuetta
Islamabad
Wateen Fiber Footprint
Nooriabad
Kalri
Dadu
Larkana
Jamshoro
Shikarpur
MailsiVehariBurewala
Arifwala
PakpattanOkara
Kot Addu
Dera Murad Jamali
Sibbi
Dasht
Quetta
Jacobabad
Khanewal
Chichawatni
SahiwalT T Singh
� 4500 + Km Metro OFC in 50+ cities
KarachiThatta Hyderabad
Nawabshah
Amirabad
Sukkur
Dharki
Mastung
Dringer
Nushki
Ahmanwal
Chaghi
Dalbadin
NokundiTaftan
Mashkhel
GharoMirpur Sakro
Ghora Bari
Kati Bandar
Sujawal
ChuharJamali
Shah Bandar
Jati
Thano Bula KhanMirpur KhasUmer Kot
ChachroIslamkot
Nagar Parkar
Judho
Tando Bhago
Badin
Td.AdamBerani
Jam Nawaz Ali
Johi
Daulatpur
NawanWali Muhammad
Khanpur
Ranipur Sobhodero
Washuk
Surab
Basima
Nag
Panjgoor
Hoshab
Nal
Salimabad
Kharan
Khandkot Rahim Yar Khan
Liaquatpur
Bahawalpur
Lodhran
Rojhan
Fazilpur
D G Khan
Qureshi ChowkMuzaffargarh
Multan
Sadiqabad
Muslim Bagh Qila Saif Ullah
Lora Lai
Duki
Harnai
IslamabadFaisalabadSialkot
GujranwalaGujratSahiwalSargodhaMultanJhelum
D. I. KhanPeshawarSukkur
HyderabadAbbotabadRawalpindiBahawalpurR.Y.Khan
Multinet - 5000 KM
Broadband Subscribers Status
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
900,648
1,491,491
2101315
2,721,659
Broadband Technology Penetration in Pakistan before 3G/4G
-
500,000
1,000,000
45,153 168,082
413,809
12
Broadband Technology Penetration in Pakistan before 3G/4G
The era of New Generation Mobile Services (3G & 4G Mobile Broadband
Government
Auction took Place on 23rd
April 2014 NGMS Licenses 4 Mobile
13
Government issued a Policy Directive for
3G/4G auction on 7th October
2013
Consultant was contracted on 19th December
2013
April 2014 through
Simultaneous
Multiple Round Ascending (SMRA)
NGMS Licenses were awarded to
4 Mobile Operators on 22nd May 2014
4 Mobile operations
launched their 3G/4G services
during September 2014
3 Mobile operators launched 3G & 1 operator launched 3G & 4G services
The Auction generated USD 1.2 Billion for the Government
3G & 4G- Progress so far
14
Exponential growth of 3G & 4G subscribers- 12 Million subscribers ( as of March 2014)
Sudden surge in usage of Mobile Applications- Opening up a new immense opportunity in the county
Exponential Monthly Growth in 3G/4G subscribers
Subscribers in millions
15
Outstanding growth in Mobile Broadband after spectrum auction
16
Extensive Data Usage on 3G Networks
6,840
6,000
7,000
8,000
Bytes (TBs) 2G 3G Total
3G shares %
2G shares %
Voice 3% 87%
Data 97% 13%
17
1,243 1,219 1,322 1,449 1,639 1,601 1,693 1,857 1,887
2,155 2,188 2,392
211 363 461 440 691
1,376
2,794
4,448
1,243 1,219 1,322 1,449 1,850 1,964
2,154 2,297 2,578
3,531
4,982
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
In TeraBytes (TBs) 2G 3G Total
3G Launch
MBB comparison with other countries (December 2014)
18
3G and 4G Coverage
Projected Broadband Growth in Pakistan
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Broadband Subscribers in Million
Forecast based on 3G/4G uptake Plum High Demand Forecast
Broadband subscribers to cross 50 million by 2018
20
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Broadband Subscribers in Million
3G /4G Spectrum Auction
Year ending on June
Market (Revenue)
Market (Socio-Economic Development)
INTERPERSONALCOMMUNICATION
Communicate, play and share content
M-COMMERCEDoing business and make payment from mobile 3G/4G
3G and 4G – an enabler for accelerated socio-economic development through mobile broadband
CONNECTED COMMUNITIES
INTERNET OF
person
INTERNET OF THINGS
Increasing number of connected devices per
person
23
Communicate, play and share content with friends from mobile
M-HEALTHMedical advice in remote areas
PERSONAL ECOSYSTEM
Access and control of connected devices remotely from mobile
payment from mobile
ENTERTAINMENTUse of mobile as a portable TV
DIGITAL MEMobile carries digital access for
payment, transport etc
3G/4GNext Generation Mobile Services
M-EDUCATIONEducation for all
M-AGRICULTURE
dependent on agriculture
M-AGRICULTUREMore than 60% of our population
live in rural areas, mainly dependent on agriculture
WOMEN EMPOWERMENT
Economic Impact of Mobile Broadband
Direct Effect
• Economic activities and new jobs directly associated with the deployment of infrastructure, and other associated
Indirect Effect
• Improvements in productivity and efficiency through faster and more optimisedprocesses in agri, education, health,
Induced Effect
• Innovations and new ideas diffuse throughout society, creating a favourableenvironment for new services and associated
economic activities
• i.e. jobs created for construction works, telecom engineers; Retail and consumer services paid for the newly generated income
education, health, SMEs and other sectors of the economy.
• e.g. Optimization ofsupply chain
new services and business models
• e.g. Advanced online services, new utility services
Short term Short to mid term Mid to long term
Additional GDP due to 3G and 4G services
The World Bank estimates show that a
10 percent increase in mobile
broadband penetration drives a 1.4
percent increase in GDP for low-to-
middle income countries.
(The World Bank and ITU)
A 10 percent point increase in
International evidence / estimatesInternational evidence / estimatesInternational evidence / estimatesInternational evidence / estimates
Additional GDP during 2014-2020
� Estimated Rs. 1,200 Billion
addition expected in GDP due to 3G and 4G services in
Source: PTA , World Bank, GSMA, Plum Report 2013
A 10 percent point increase in
broadband connections penetration
leads to 0.92% increase in GDP in
developing countries.
(GSMA)
Direct, indirect and induced economic
effects
Short-term and medium to long-run
effects
to 3G and 4G services in Pakistan during 2014-20.
GDP growth translates into Job Creation
Addition of 1,000 new broadband
connections results in the creation of 33
new jobs (Direct, Indirect and Induced
jobs in industries that make use of
broadband networks)
GSMA
The recent GSMA Report on Digital
Inclusion and Mobile Sector Taxation in
International estimatesInternational estimatesInternational estimatesInternational estimates
Additional Job Creation:
� Expected 1 to 1.5 million 1 to 1.5 million 1 to 1.5 million 1 to 1.5 million
employment generation
Source: PTA , GSMA, World Bank, Planning Commission and Plum Report 2013
Inclusion and Mobile Sector Taxation in
Pakistan shows that for every new job
created in Pakistan’s Mobile sector, 11
are generated in the wider economy
GSMA Deloitte
For every percentage point increase in
broadband penetration, employment
would increase by 0.2 to 0.3
percentage points per year.
Planning Commission and GSMA
employment generation
during 2014-2020.
Thank You!
27
Thank You!