Turbulent Times

Politics, economics, resources and policy

Turbulent times - politics

• The coalition government has transformed the political situation

• It is in the interests of both parties for the coalition to survive

• The Conservatives want to govern• The Liberal Democrats have their first share of

power for 65 years and will not want to face a general election any time soon

Turbulent times - politics

• The working assumption is that the coalition will survive until 2015

• If the voting system and constituency boundaries have been changed by 2015 Labour will find it more difficult to win and it will be more difficult for any party to win an overall majority

• The full implications of devolution are still unfolding – for many issues including health and education - Westminster elections are only about England

Turbulent times - economics

• The situation internationally and nationally remains fragile

• Unemployment is likely to continue increase• Any recovery will be slow and painful• Regional differences are likely to remain or

become greater

Turbulent times - resources

• The public sector will be smaller• Has the scale of the “cuts” been over estimated?• Why do 28% of the public think that the cuts are

just right and 29% that they have not gone far enough = 57% while only 35% think that they have gone too far? ICM March 2011

• Is this related to voting intentions in the same poll – Con 37%, Lib Dem 16% [Coalition 53%] – Lab 36%, Others 11%

Turbulent Times

• How much sympathy is there for the public sector and its pay and pensions?

• Would any Government return to the public sector growth rates of recent years?

Turbulent times - policy• What are the policy themes across the public

sector?• Resource constraint – a smaller state• Localism – devolution of responsibility to local

level including “autonomous “ bodies –Foundation Trusts and Academies

• Diversity of provision – greater involvement of the private and voluntary/community sectors

• Does it matter if services paid for by the state are not provided by the state?