Tulsa Area Forecast 2016

Tulsa Regional Chamber Economic Outlook Conference December 2, 2015

Bob BallTulsa Regional Chamber

Total EmploymentGrowth Forecast for 2015

1.5% in December 2014+6,400 jobs

Total EmploymentGrowth Forecast for 2015

0.8% in March 2015+3,600 jobs

Looks like growth of

0.6% for 2015+2,600

2016Employment Forecast

0.35%+1,560 jobs

Tulsa Total Employment

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016390000

400000

410000

420000

430000

440000

450000

+2.6+1.6

Tulsa Total Employment Growth

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

0.60%0.35%

Tulsa Total Employment

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016390000

400000

410000

420000

430000

440000

450000

+2.6+1.6

-1.750

Tulsa Total Personal IncomeGrowth Forecast for 2015

6.0% December 2014

Tulsa Total Personal IncomeGrowth Forecast for 2015

6.0% December 20143.0%

2016Personal Income Forecast

2.4%

Tulsa Personal Income and Wages

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

3.0%2.4%2.4%

0.9%

Personal income Wages & salaries

Criteria for Target-sector Selection

• Sheer size of the sector• Availability of work force, work force training• Interrelationships among sectors• Infrastructure and assets

Target Sectors

• Energy• Advanced Manufacturing• Aerospace• Health Care• Professional Services and Regional HQs• Information Technology• Transportation, Distribution & Logistics

Tulsa Total Employment

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016390000

400000

410000

420000

430000

440000

450000

+2.6+1.6

-1.750

Impact of 2015 O&G-related Employment Losses on Tulsa

• 1,750 jobs supported 3,124 additional jobs.• 10 jobs in O&G-related industries support 18

additional jobs.• Lost O&G wages of $234.3 million remove the

support for $190.5 million in additional wages.• 1,750 jobs produced goods and services valued

at $352.8 million in Tulsa, or 0.6 percent of gross product.

Target Sectors

• Energy• Advanced Manufacturing• Aerospace• Health Care• Professional Services and Regional HQs• Information Technology• Transportation, Distribution & Logistics

These 6 Target Sectors Account for:

• 25 % of employment in the Tulsa economy

• 35 % of income and salaries • Average wage of $63,300, 46% higher than

the overall average

Energy/oil and gas

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 2.9%

• Growth in 2015:-7.5%-600 jobs

• Growth in 2016:-4.0%-290 jobs

Manufacturing

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 2.1%

• Growth in 2015:-5.8%-3,000 jobs

• Growth in 2016:-6.1%-2,980 jobs

Strength of the dollar

Machinery Manufacturing

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 5.2%

• • Growth in 2015: -7.2%

-990 jobs

• Growth in 2016:-11.1%-1,400 jobs

Aerospace

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: flat

• Growth in 2015: 1.7%

• Growth in 2016: 2.5%

Transportation, Distribution, Logistics

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: -1.5%

• Growth in 2015:-0.5%

• Growth in 2016:-1.5%

Professional & Business Services

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 1.3%

• Growth in 2015: 1.6%

• Growth in 2016: 2.0%

Information Technology

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: -1.0%

• Growth in 2015: -0.7%

• Growth in 2016: -0.9%

Health Care

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 1.6%

• Growth in 2015: 1.9%

• Growth in 2016: 2.3%

Caveats to the Forecast