Tuesday Evening Session

Security Risks Posed by Processes of Climate Change

Greg Grimsich

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)Regional Office for the Pacific

Suva, Fiji

Resources1) Climate Change as a Security Risk

German Advisor Council, 2008 (248 pages)

2) Freshwater under threat – Pacific IslandsSPC and UNEP, 2011 (58 pages)

3) Internal Displacement Caused by Natural Disasters and Climate Change – Conference and Workshop ReportPIFS & OCHA/OHCHR/Brookings supported, 2011

4) Climate Change and Security, Scenarios for Indian-Pacific Ocean Island States. EU, 2009 (14 pages)

2

Conflict Constellations1) Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources2) Climate induced decline in food production3) Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters4) Environmentally induced migration

3

State Security

1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

Conflict Constellations1) Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources2) Climate induced decline in food production3) Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters4) Environmentally induced migration

4

State Security

1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

Conflict Constellations1) Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources2) Climate induced decline in food production3) Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters4) Environmentally induced migration

5

State Security

1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

Sikaiana Atoll, SI

6

Conflict Constellations1) Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources2) Climate induced decline in food production3) Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters4) Environmentally induced migration

7

State Security

1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

8

Conflict Constellations1) Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources2) Climate induced decline in food production3) Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters4) Environmentally induced migration

9

State Security

1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

Conflict Constellations1) Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources2) Climate induced decline in food production3) Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters4) Environmentally induced migration

10

State Security

1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

How many climate induced migrants might there be in 2050? Scenarios…

11

Manam volcanic eruption 2004

12

Center for the Manam displaced destroyed in clashes with local communities

13

Conflict Constellations1) Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources2) Climate induced decline in food production3) Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters4) Environmentally induced migration

14

State Security1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of

classic security policy

15