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Understanding Environmental Change and Indigenous Adapta7on to Mul7ple Stressors in
Catherine Tucker Indiana University
Cordillera Celaque, Lempira, Honduras
Sierra Juarez, Oaxaca, Mexico
Building Resilience of Mountain Social-‐Ecological Systems Workshop Estes Park, Colorado, May 20-‐25, 2012
and
Physical map of La7n America
showing loca7on of Mexican and
Honduran study areas
Below 200 m 200-‐1000 m 1000-‐2000 m 2000-‐4000 m Over 4000 m
Sierra Juarez
Loca7on of Sierra Juarez in Oaxaca, Mexico
Mexico Oaxaca
Oaxaca’s eleva7on: Sea level to over 3500 m. Biologically diverse : 7 of Mexico’s 9 major ecological zones Culturally diverse: 16 indigenous languages spoken.
Loca7on of the Cordillera Celaque in Honduras
Main System Components & Characteris7cs Sierra Juarez, Mexico & Cordillera Celaque, Honduras
• Dynamic landscape mosaic, patches of high biodiversity: – Pine-‐oak forests, agriculture, cloud forest, shade coffee
• Biophysical: – Topographic complexity, suscep7bility to erosion – Hydrology: mountain watersheds, springfed streams – Climate: marked wet and dry seasons
• Social: – Cultural context: Indigenous communi7es – Diversified livelihoods: subsistence agriculture, coffee, community forestry, migra7on, ecotourism, wage labor; also ar7sanal po`ery (Honduras) and mining (Mexico)
– Economic marginaliza7on, limited human services – Poli7cal-‐ins7tu7onal arrangements and processes
Services Provided
• Ecosystem Services – Watersheds – Soil conserva7on (with forest cover and agroforestry) – Carbon sequestra7on – Biodiversity (endemism, pine-‐oak & cloud forests)
• Sociocultural & Economic Services – Provision of 7mber and non-‐7mber forest products – Cultural heritage and place-‐based iden7ty – Socially & economically valuable ac7vi7es (hun7ng, collec7ng, agriculture, touris7c resources -‐ caves, hiking trails, panoramas)
Drivers and/or shocks
• Severe weather & climate change • Na7onal and interna7onal policies &
programs (may also mi7gate stressors) • Market prices (7mber, coffee, minerals) • Plant diseases & pests (pine bark beetle,
coffee pests & diseases) • Outmigra7on • Tourism and infrastructure development • External investment (coffee, mines,
tourism) • Subsistence needs & demand for improved
livelihoods
Interac7ons and feedbacks among system components and drivers: Integrated IAD* &
Livelihoods Frameworks
* Ins7tu7onal Analysis and Development Framework
External Incen7ves for adapta7on
Risk appraisal Severity and impact
Adapta7on appraisal Self-‐efficacy, adapta7on
costs and benefits, perceived adapta7on
efficacy
Coffee Middlemen & Exporters
Cer7fica7on agencies
Extension Agents
Government Agencies
Informa7on on climate signal
Informa7on on adapta7on
op7ons
Adapta7on Intent:
Avoidance or Engagement
Objec7ve capaci7es: livelihood capitals and en7tlements
Adapta7on Ac7on
Internal Cogni7on (Coffee Growers)
Specific Example: Model of Coffee Farmers’ Adapta7on to Stressors
Broad Biophysical and Social-‐Economic-‐Poli7cal Contexts
Livelihood Framework combined with the Model of Private Proac7ve Adapta7on to Climate Change
System features that confer resilience
• Strong community governance and local ins7tu7ons for forest conserva7on – Help to protect ecosystem services and impede environmental degrada7on
– A`racts development programs and investments (mixed effects)
• Diversified livelihoods – Increase resilience in extreme clima7c events and market vola7lity
• Strong social networks (regionally, na7onally and interna7onally) – Provide a source of external economic and social support
• Increasing poli7cal ac7vism: receiving recogni7on from na7onal poli7cal par7es and programs
Future trajectories or alterna7ve states
• Increasing influence of external investors and absentee landlords, increasing landlessness and impoverishment (leading to outmigra7on)
• Depopula7on (migra7on), loss of cultural iden7ty and ins7tu7onal arrangements that have tended to maintain and value forests
• Increasing frequency of extreme climate events and market vola7lity, leading to increased vulnerability and impoverishment if ecosystem services and economic op7ons (coffee, forestry) decline
OR • Strengthening of community values, forest and watershed
conserva7on, and recogni7on of indigenous cultures and alterna7ve lifeways?
OR • Dynamic, as yet unforeseeable combina7ons, of change processes
Modeling (or other approach) • Complex social-‐ecological systems approach with integra7on of four frameworks: – Complex social-‐ecological systems framework (Ostrom) – Ins7tu7onal Analysis and Development Framework (Ostrom Workshop)
– Sustainable Livelihoods Framework – Model of Private Adapta7on to Climate Change (Grothman & Pa` 2005)
• How is your approach original? – Integra7on of frameworks to
• a`ain a holis7c approach • recognize dynamic interac7ons • analyze adap7ve capacity and systemic change processes • consider obstacles and op7ons for sustainability
Strengths and Limita7ons
• Aspects of your approach that are working well: – Facilitates recogni7on of biophysical and social interac7ons and processes
– Progress with 7me change analysis of land cover change
– Interest of study communi7es • Limita7ons to your approach: – Inadequate historical or baseline climate data – Mul7tude of variables (need to narrow) – Variables that resist measurement
Thank you
Thanks to collaborators-‐ Jessica Fonseca, Martha Moreno, Atanacio Perez, Edwin Castellanos, Hallie Eakin, Helda Morales, Rafael Diaz, Juan Barrera, Zoila Perez