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TSUNAMIS: MONITORING, FORESIGHT AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
Alessandro Annunziato – Joint Research Centre, European Commission
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Table of Content
•Tsunamis, a natural disaster where technology can have a decisive role
•Monitoring Systems
•Early Warning, for who ?
•The case study for Setubal, contribution of EU to Tsunami Waring Systems
•Conclusions
• Seismic Detection• Sea Level Confirmation• Analysis• Alerting• Information to the public• Monitoring and evaluation
Tsunami as top deadliest Natural Disasters
• Among the natural Disasters, Tsunami is among the most devastating event, involving several countries at the same time
• Floods and Cyclones can be forecasted:
• The last cyclones showed that it is possible to alert the population with up to 5 days in advance for evacuation
• Floods, nowadays represent the most damaging event from monetary point of view
• Earthquakes cannot be forecasted (yet). No alerting is possible
• For Tsunami the situation is different !
Top Deadliest Events since 1900
Fatalities
China Floods 1931 1-3 mill
Tangshan EQ 1976, China 450 k
Bhola Cyclone 1970 375 k
Sumatra TS 2004 280 k
Hayiuan EQ 1920, China 273 k
Typhoon Nina 1975, China, Philipp
229 k
Haiti EQ, 2010 160 k
..
Japan TS, 2011 28 k
Tsunami Forecast
Conditions for a Tsunami forecast:
• A fast and uniform distributed seismological monitoring system
• A fast and real time sea level detection system
• A fast and accurate analysis and forecast system that, based on the seismological parameters can establish the time of wave arrival and impact estimate
And then ?• Once the
Tsunami is identified, an alert must be sent out
• The alert has to reach local communities for evacuation
Portugal Tsunami Warning System
Turkey Tsunami Warning System
Seismic Network Sea Level Network Scenario Database
Turkish Civil Defense (AFAD)
Tsunami travel time
• Examples of travel time in
• Pacific
• Indian Ocean
• North Atlantic
• Mediterranean Sea
EQSeismic Detection
0 3-5 min T1 T2
Sea Level Monitoring
Coastal Imact
T1 (Sea Level) T2 (Impact) Alerting
Pacific USA Alaska 0.5-1 h (DART) 1-3 h Yes
Pacific Japan 0.5-1 h (DART) 0.7-1 h
Pacific Chile 0.5 h Tide gauges =
Indian Ocean: Indonesia 30-40 min =
Indian Ocean: Thailand 30-40 min >3 h Yes
North Atlantic 40-50 min =
Mediterranean Sea 10-15 min 10-15 min
Time for alerting
• Alerting/Evacuation is possible if the sea level is measured enough time before the impact to allow sufficient time for alerting
• However if this is not sufficient for the first location impacted, it may be true for more distant locations: i.e. Portugal
• When Sagres is reached, there is still some time before the wave reaches Lisbon. So if Sagres may be difficult to be alerted, the signal in Sagres can confirm the Tsunami and thus allow to alert the rest of the coastal regions
UNESCO Efforts
• Pacific TWS
• Indian Ocean TWS
• NEAMTWS
Portugal Tsunami Warning System
Monitoring Systems: Seismic Network
• Seismic Detection• Sea Level Confirmation• Analysis• Alerting• Information to the public• Monitoring and evaluation
• More than 1000 broadband seismic stations operating.
• At least 50% of these are available in real-time through various transmission means (e.g., public and private satellite, internet, dedicated lines, etc.) and protocols (e.g., SeedLink, Nanometrics).
• The seismic networks provides data for earthquake location and magnitude estimation within few minutes
• Clear asymmetry of the network on the Mediterranean Sea
• This asymmetry affects the accuracy of the earthquake locations and delays the timing of the initial locations.
Portugal Tsunami Warning System
Monitoring Network: Sea Level
• Several sea level sensors• Not all of them transmit with the required low latency• Large lacking area in North Africa• No off-shore device
• Seismic Detection• Sea Level Confirmation• Analysis• Alerting• Information to the public• Monitoring and evaluation
IDSL Status 4th Nov 2016
PlannedSurveyedInstalledNew prop. 2017
https://batchgeo.com/map/6c854693bb63945e725ca36f2708fce9
Splash screen with all the installations
Imperia, Italy, prototype
IDSL-01
Saidia Marina, Morocco,
IDSL-02
Sagres, Portugal,
IDSL-04
Albufeira, Portugal,
IDSL-05
Cadiz, Spain,
IDSL-06
Cartagena, Spain,
IDSL-07
Pantelleria, Italy,
IDSL-10
Portopalo di Capo Passero,
Italy, IDSL-11
Le Castella, Italy,
IDSL-12
Corinth, Greece,
IDSL-13
Fethiye, Turkey,
IDSL-15
Mangalia, Romania,
IDSL-18
Devices to install:
Bozcaada, Turkey
Zarzis, Tunisia
Tabarka, Tunisia
Costanta, Romania,
IDSL-19
Sulina, Romania
IDSL-20
Batroun, Lebanon,
IDSL-21
Imperia, Italy, prototype
IDSL-01
Saidia Marina, Morocco,
IDSL-02
Sagres, Portugal,
IDSL-04
Albufeira, Portugal,
IDSL-05
Cadiz, Spain,
IDSL-06
Cartagena, Spain,
IDSL-07
Pantelleria, Italy,
IDSL-10
Portopalo di Capo Passero,
Italy, IDSL-11
Le Castella, Italy,
IDSL-12
Corinth, Greece,
IDSL-13
Fethiye, Turkey,
IDSL-15
Mangalia, Romania,
IDSL-18
Devices to install:
Bozcaada, Turkey
Zarzis, Tunisia
Tabarka, Tunisia
Costanta, Romania,
IDSL-19
Sulina, Romania
IDSL-20
Batroun, Lebanon,
IDSL-21
Status of the installations
http://webcritech.jrc.ec.europa.eu/TAD_server/Default.aspx?group=IDSL
Portugal Tsunami Warning System
Tsunami Monitoring & Analysis
• Monitoring the seismic sources 24/7
• Checking availability and reliability of sea level stations
• Comparing estimations with available measurements in order to issue alerting messages
• Preparing and issuing alerting messages
• Declare end of alerting phase (All clear message) • Seismic Detection
• Sea Level Confirmation• Analysis• Alerting• Information to the public• Monitoring and evaluation
Accredited Tsunami Watch Providers for the NEAMTWS area
CENALT - France
NOA - Greece
INGV - Italy
KOERI - Turkey
Early Warning Systems, for who ?
• Large technological effort in the measuring and analysis activities to produce an alert message to be provided to the Civil Protection agencies
• And then ? How the CP agencies inform the local communities of an incoming event ?
• Sirens or Alerting Panels
• Education
• Exercises
• Seismic Detection• Sea Level Confirmation• Analysis• Alerting• Information to the public• Monitoring and evaluation
Portugal Tsunami Warning System
Setubal, a test site for Tsunami Alerting
• In 2011, in collaboration with the Setubal Municipality, Civil Protection, Fire Fighters and the Port Authority, installed a Tsunami Alerting Device in location Parc de Albarquel
• at location Lat: 38.51458, Lon: -8.90941
• This device is a research product of the JRC
• It is intended to alert the local population around the device that a potential threat due to Tsunami may exist.
TAD installation (April 2011)
Monitoring webcam
• The activation modes of the device include:
• manual alerting
– (someone in the National Civil Protection or in the Local Civil
Protection or anybody who has the responsibility to alert
population) may activate the “red button” and issue the local alert
(siren, messages, rotating light)
• automatic alerting
– when the panel is connected with alerts coming from automatic
systems (i.e. GDACS) and the presence of a Tsunami in the area
can cause the activation of the alert
• sea level activation
– automatic alerting obtained by a sharp increase of the sea level
measured closeby the device.
• At the moment the only implemented alerting mode is the first one (manual alerting) and is managed by the local Civil protection. The objective of the test is the third mode
The connection with Baliza 2 revealed to be difficult because of preblems in keeping continuously operational the sea level station
4 km, 4 min
Tsunami 1755, SELFE calculations
Setubal
Sea level at measurement point
Sea level at TAD
Calculations by R. Tavares da Costa
Installation of the device
Result of Test n. 1
30 s after start of sea level rising alert is shown on the panel: 3.5-4 min to escape
Screenshot of TAD Messages at 11:19 Local Time (10:19 UTC)
3.5 km = 4 min travel time
Although the experiment was announced locally and the message indicated a test case, during the first test, someone in the park called the local fire fighters to know what to do because he/she felt the alert
The experiment (Euronews)
Video HR
Video LR
Are 3-4 min enough to escape ?
How to improve ?
o 3-4 min is short but without this device would be 0 min: wave would arrive without prior alerting
o Even 1 h is not enough if there is not preparation of the population: EDUCATION & INFORMATION
o It is possible to improve by using other sensors located farer from the monitored point (i.e. use of off-shore devices or from other locations (i.e. Sagres))
Contribution for EU to the NEAMTWS efforts
• Development and maintenance of a Backup Sea Level Database
• More than 1000 sea level data acquired every minute
• Inexpensive Device Sea Level Network
• 15 Devices installed, 16 to be installed in 2017-2018
• Tsunami Analysis Tool
• Software tool for Tsunami monitoring
•Tsunami Alerting Device
• Training Programmes for Tsunami Warning Centers(GTIMS)
• Creation of analytical reports for every Tsunami worldwide, within a fixed time frame from the event
Tsunami Warning System: EU Contributions
Conclusions
•Tsunami Natural Disaster is one of the most dangerous event for coastal population, although not very frequent
•Contrary to other disasters, its consequences can be forecasted but the price to pay for the forecast is a huge technological effort:
• Real Time Monitoring networks: seismological and sea level
• Analysis Systems
• Alert Notifications
•Great improvements done by the scientific community to establish a Tsunami Warning System in the Mediterranean and North Atlantic Area
•A lot still to be done for the Last Mile :• Sirens on the beaches: contrasting interests
• Personal Alert Systems (i.e. Apps, wearable devices)
• Alerting Panels (normally used for other purposes)
• Testing and education
•Despite the continuous economical crisis:
• is the European population ready to pay the efforts to maintain and improve the Tsunami Warning and Alerting capabilities, even if the activation will probably never occur for decades ?
