TSUNAMI IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY MODEL (CASE STUDY) · Before the 2004 tsunami In the aftermarth of the 2004 event In the aftermarth of the 2011 event Progress in Tsunami Science

TSUNAMI IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY MODEL (CASE STUDY)

Rachid Omira - Instituto Portugues do Mar e da Atmosfera

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Before the 2004 tsunami

In the aftermarth of the 2004 event


Progress in Tsunami Science in the NE Atlantic

.Mainly associated with thehistorical events (i.e, 1755Lisbon tsunami);.Basic numerical modelling:tsunami travel time and wavepropagation;

. No study performed

The Mw9.2 Indian Ocean tsunami -

2004

The Mw9.1 Tohoku-oki

tsunami- 2011

.Identifying the maintsunamigenic structures in theregion;. Advanced numerical modelling:wave propagation and coastalimpact (inundation);. Deterministic tsunami hazard;

. First qualitative model published and applied to a test-site (2010)

Haz

ard

Vu

lner

abili

ty

.Improving the determinstictsunami Hazard;.Probabilistic tsunami hazard forthe entire NE Atlantic and fortest sites;

. Qualitative model applied to various NE Atlantic test-site;. Quatitative developped an applied (2015)

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Progress in Tsunami Science in the NE AtlanticTsunami Hazard


(Baptista et al., 1992)

Compilation of tsunami Catalogue

Analysis of Tsunami records

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Modelling wave propagation and synthetic waveformsIn the Deep Ocean

Modelling tsunami travel time

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Tsunamigenic Sources

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Modelling wave propagation Modelling Tsunami energy patterns

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Modelling Coastal Impact – Various test-sites

Aveiro

Lisbon-Cascais

Sines

Algarve

Tangier

Huelva

Cadiz

Casablanca

El-Jadida

High-resolution DEMs

Sines - Portugal

Tangier - Morocco

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Grid 1

Grid 2

Grid 3

Grid size 200m

Grid size 50m

Resolution 800m

Resolution 200m

Resolution 50m

LEVEL 2

Example of Nested Grids System to compute inundation: Casablanca-Morocco Case

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Modelling Coastal Impact – Inundation

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Inundation Maps-Algarve Portugal(Omira et al., 2011, PAGEOPH)

Modelling Coastal Impact – Inundation Maps

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Omira et al., 2013, NHESS

Modelling Coastal Impact – Inundation Maps

El Jadida - Morocco

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Progress in Tsunami Science in the NE AtlanticTsunami Vulnerability


Buildings tsunami vulnerabilityBuilding and sea-defence classification – within the inundation zone

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Omira et al., 2010, Natural Hazards

Building Vulnerability method

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Omira et al., 2010, Natural Hazards



Building Vulnerability Map

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Sendai

Expected

Occurred

JMA (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html)

Lesson learned from the 2011 Japan tsunami

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Progress in Tsunami Science in the NE AtlanticTsunami Hazard – Probabilistic


Source Zones for Probabilistic tsunami

hazard

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Tsunami Modeling – Contribution of large and Small events

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Probability Hazard Map

for the NE Atlantic coast

100-year exposure time

Wave exceeding 1 m

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Probability Hazard Map

for the NE Atlantic coast

500-year exposure time

Wave exceeding 1 m.

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Probability Inundation Maps

For Sines - Portugal

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Building tsunami vulnerability maps for Sines test-site with 80%

probability of occurrence, and 3D view of the vulnerability map

(A)

(B)

Building tsunami fragility curves after

the Japan 2011

Suppasri et al., 2010, Natural Hazards

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Progress in Tsunami Science in the NE AtlanticTsunami From non-seismic Sources

Progress in Tsunami Science in the NE AtlanticTsunami From non-seismic Sources

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Thank you for your attention!

Documents

TSUNAMI IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY MODEL (CASE STUDY) · Before the 2004 tsunami In the aftermarth of the 2004 event In the aftermarth of the 2011 event Progress in Tsunami Science