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Tsunami Hazards on the East and Gulf Coasts

Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E.NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

RIC 2009

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Overview

• Research Goals

• Overview of program

• Available products

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Research Goals

• Better understanding for all US coasts• Development of a source database• Integration of landslide modeling• Input for probable maximum tsunami

(PMT) hazard levels• PTHA (probabilistic) where appropriate• Incorporation into regulatory guidance

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NRC RESEARCH

Pacific Coast

East Coast

Gulf Coast

Hawaii

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Damage comes from…• Wave inundation

• Drawdown (important for plants)

• Floating debris

• Scour

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Size of Tsunami (m)

Rec

urre

nce

Inte

rval

(yr

)

(ann

ual p

roba

bilit

y of

exc

eede

nce)

-1

1

10

100

1000

10000

1

10 100 1000

Distant Earthquakes

Local Earthquakes

Landslides

Asteroid Impact

Volcanoes

Idealization of size-frequency relationship of tsunami sources

Power et al., 2005

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Sources Addressed

• Near-field seismic

• Far-field seismic

• Near-field landslide

• Far-field landslide

• NOT:– Asteroid Impacts– Volcanic

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Research Plan

1. Data collection, review of current state of knowledge, interpretation of data, basic modeling (completed - first USGS report)

2. Targeted field work, additional analyses, additional modeling (second USGS report)

3. Updating NOAA models for landslide sources, global modeling

4. Hazard map development

5. PTHA

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Data collection, review of current state of knowledge, interpretation of data, basic modeling (2008) ML082960196

(IJMG special publication)

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Near Field Landslides

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Currituck Landslide

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Currituck Landslide

0 100 200 300 KM

-40

-20

0

20

40

Met

ers

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Existing Data

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Far-Field Landslide Sources EUS

• Cumbre Vieja, Canary Islands

• Glaciated margins of northern Europe and Canada– Storegga landslide, Norway– Eastern Scotian margin (0.15 MYA)– 1929 Grand Banks landslide

• The mid-Atlantic ridge

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Canary and Hawaiian Islands

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Lituya Bay

1,700 feet

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• West of Gibraltar– 1755 Lisbon– 1761 Earthquake

and Tsunami

• The Northeast

Caribbean– Puerto Rico Trench– Hispaniola Trench– Northern Panama

Far-Field Seismic Sources

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Caribbean Plate

Far-Field Seismic Sources

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Modeling Sources

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Southern Caribbean Subduction Zone

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Global Modeling & Mapping

• NOAA to use UGSG source information to add landslide capability that works with global (MOST) model

• NOAA modeling addresses “linear” part of analyses• Site-specific inundation modeling performed

separately

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Advanced Methods

• PTHA = Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments

• Focus of significant US research efforts

• Techniques analogous to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), which are the basis of US NRC seismic hazard guidance

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Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard

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Questions