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Workforce Optimization and Planning Dr. James Kelly & Dr. Marco Better
© 2014 OptTek SystemsDecember 10, 2014
OptTek’s Vision of Workforce Planning
OptForce® is a proven data-centric system that utilizes advanced statistics, simulation, and optimization to create actionable people analytics that improve organizational performance, reduce talent risk, and enrich the work experience.
Actionable People Analytics Organizational Performance - Productivity Reducing Talent Risk to Prepare for the
Future Enriched Work Experience through Talent
Alignment and Proactive Program Planning Simulation / Statistics/ Optimization /
Machine Learning Technology
Descriptive, Predictive, Prescriptive
Information
Simulation
Optimization
Descriptive Analytics
Predictive
Analytics
Prescriptive
Analytics
Hindsight
Insight
Foresight
More Valuable
Mor
e A
ctio
nabl
e
What happened? Why?
What will happen? What if…?
How do we make the best happen?
Adapted from Rose Business Technologies www.rosebt.com
OptForce : One Model / O
ne System
Question?
In the next year, my organization plans to utilize predictive analysis to support workforce planning.
a. Strongly Agreeb. Agreec. Disagreed. Strongly Disagreee. Not Sure
Workforce as a living, growing, changing organism
Workforce as a living, growing, changing organism
Recruitment
Workforce as a living, growing, changing organism
Recruitment
Voluntary Attrition
Workforce as a living, growing, changing organism
Recruitment
Voluntary Attrition
Involuntary Attrition
Workforce as a living, growing, changing organism
Recruitment
Voluntary Attrition
Involuntary Attrition
Retirement
Workforce as a living, growing, organism
Recruitment
Involuntary Attrition
Voluntary Attrition
Retirement
Talent Flow
Workforce as a living, growing, changing organism
The Future
Simulation and Predictive Statistics
Predictive Statistics use past data to predict the future.– Usually in the form of an equation yt = f(t,x)– Best when applied at a relatively high level– Excellent for stable trends and predictable cycles– Not appropriate for a changing system
Simulation uses past data and system structure to predict the future.– Model the actions of individual people as impacted by their
attributes and environment– Can provide insight at the individual level and/or high level– Excellent for stable trends and predictable cycles– Excellent for investigating the impact of system changes
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Recruitment Pool
Exec
utiv
esM
iddl
eM
anag
emen
tN
on-m
anag
eria
l
Personnel Personnel PersonnelJobs Jobs JobsH
R P
rogr
ams,
Pol
icie
s an
d In
itiat
ives
U.S. Patent 8.386.300
WorkForce Demand – What You Will Need
MetricsHistory Operational
Demand
Machine Learning
Statistical/Math Model
WorkForce Demand – What You Will Need
MetricsHistory Operational
Demand
Predictions at the role
levels
Machine Learning
Statistical/Math Model
WorkForce Demand – What You Will Need
MetricsHistory Operational
Demand
How have roles tracked with products & services in the past?
Machine Learning
Statistical/Math Model
WorkForce Demand – What You Will Need
MetricsHistory Operational
Demand
Revenue, projects, orders, …
Machine Learning
Statistical/Math Model
WorkForce Demand – What You Will Need
MetricsHistory Operational
Demand
Bottom – up planning
Machine Learning
Statistical/Math Model
Too Few, Too Many, Just Right …Gap (Supply-Demand) Analysis
0 4 8 12 16 20 240
50100150200250300350
DemandSupply
Month
FTE
0 4 8 12 16 20 240
50100150200250300350
DemandSupply
Month
FTE
0 4 8 12 16 20 240
50100150200250300350
DemandSupply
Month
FTE
Major Components
Data Preparation Demand Analyses Attrition Analyses Recruitment Modeling Talent Flow Modeling Program/Policy Modeling Risk Analyses Scenario Simulations Reporting
Question?
If today you had a operational workforce planning system, which of the following areas would you address first?
(a) Demand Planning (b) Recruiting (c) Retention (d) Talent Flow (e) Other
Quality Assurance
DevelopAction Plans &
Deploy
Assess NeedsCollect Data
Simulate Scenarios
Assess Needs
Collect Data Validation against HistoryBuild Models
Support monthly cycle
Implementation 2 weeks to 3 months
OptForce Process Model
Use Cases and Web Application
Dr. Marco BetterVice President of Analytics Services
Use Case 1
Engineers in Plants 1 and 2 Demand growing in Plant 1 Demand decreasing in Plant 2 Certain roles in Plant 1 require special Expert
Systems certification
WHAT IF: we invested in training of Plant 2 engineers to be able to re-deploy them to Plant 1?
Use Case 2
Recently hired employees exhibit higher turnover than more seasoned personnel
We invest in new recruits only to lose them to competition
Talent shortage in the market is creating a growing demand gap
WHAT IF: we could improve onboarding to increase retention of new engineers?
Cost ComparisonBase (Do Nothing)
Base + Training
Cummulative Workforce Gap 463 152
Lost Revenue Cost 64,357$ 21,128$ Cost of Turnover 2,058$ 801$
Salaries 255,448$ 259,894$ Recruitment 28,687$ 19,601$ Training Program -$ 10,708$
Total Direct Costs 284,135$ 290,203$ Opportunity Costs 64,357$ 21,128$ TOTAL COST 348,492$ 311,331$ Net Savings 37,161$
Thank You!
OptTek Systems, Inc. 2241 17th StreetBoulder, CO 80302www.OptTek.com
www.OptForce.comU.S. Patent 8.386.300
Optimizing Your WorkforceDr. Marco Better [email protected] 303.447.3255 x 109
Dr. James Kelly [email protected] 303.447.3255 x 101