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Trutz Haase
ACCOUNTING FOR RURAL DEPRIVATION
Committee for Agriculture and Rural Development
Northern Ireland Assembly
2nd December 2014
Conceptual issues in the construction of Deprivation Indices
Distributions across Urban and Rural Areas in Northern Ireland
The effects of Spatial Aggregation
Designing Resource Allocation Models
QUESTIONS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THIS PRESENTATION
Relative Poverty
“People are living in poverty if their income and resources (material, cultural and social) are so inadequate as to preclude them from having a standard of living which is regarded as acceptable by Irish society generally.”
(Government of Ireland, NAPS, 1997)
Relative Deprivation
“The fundamental implication of the term deprivation is of an absence – of essential or desirable attributes, possessions and opportunities which are considered no more than the minimum by that society.”
(Coombes et al., DoE – UK, 1995)
A COMPREHENSIVE DEFINITION OF POVERTY
Demographic Decline (predominantly rural)
population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population)
Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas)
social class composition, education, housing quality
Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban)
unemployment, lone parents, low skills base
THE UNDERLYING DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE
Demographic Decline
Social Class Disadvantage
Labour Market Deprivation
Age Dependency Rate
Population Change
Low Qualification
High Qualification
Persons per Room
High Social Classes
Low Social Classes
Lone Parents
Male Unemployment
Female Unemployment
DIMENSIONALITY OF THE2011 ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX
POPULATION CHANGE 2006 - 2011
Population Change 2006-2011Haase & Pratschke 2014
15 and higher (5118)5 to 15 (4625)0 to 5 (3841)
-5 to 0 (3456)-5 and low er (5985)
NI: 4.1% RoI: 8.2%
AGE DEPENDENCY2011
Age DependencyHaase & Pratschke 2014
39 to 78 (4168)36 to 39 (4045)33 to 36 (4889)30 to 33 (3796)0 to 30 (6127)
NI: 34.1% RoI: 33.0%
LONE PARENTS2011
Lone ParentsHaase & Pratschke 2014
50 to 100 (2417)25 to 50 (6195)15 to 25 (5255)10 to 15 (3700)0 to 10 (5458)
NI: 29.3% RoI: 21.6%
LOW QUALIFICATIONS2011
Low QualificationsHaase & Pratschke 2014
55 to 100 (3074)45 to 55 (4146)35 to 45 (6118)25 to 35 (4846)0 to 25 (4841)
NI: 40.6% RoI: 36.8%
HIGH QUALIFICATIONS2011
High QualificationsHaase & Pratschke 2014
30 to 100 (5782)22.5 to 30 (4220)17.5 to 22.5 (4073)12.5 to 17.5 (4225)0 to 12.5 (4725)
NI: 23.7%RoI: 23.5%
LOW SOCIAL CLASS2011
Low ClassHaase & Pratschke 2014
40 to 80 (4409)30 to 40 (5433)25 to 30 (3886)20 to 25 (3884)0 to 20 (5413)
NI: 34.2% RoI: 27.0%
HIGH SOCIAL CLASS2011
High ClassHaase & Pratschke 2014
35 to 100 (5888)25 to 35 (6231)20 to 25 (4029)15 to 20 (3556)0 to 15 (3321)
NI: 31.1% RoI: 27.9%
MALE ILO UNEMPLOYMENT2011
Male ILO UnemploymentHaase & Pratschke 2014
25 to 100 (5331)20 to 25 (3134)15 to 20 (4310)10 to 15 (5051)0 to 10 (5199)
NI: 10.7% RoI: 19.8%
FEMALE ILO UNEMPLOYMENT2011
Female ILO UnemploymentHaase & Pratschke 2014
20 to 100 (2620)15 to 20 (2973)10 to 15 (6192)5 to 10 (7198)0 to 5 (4042)
NI: 5.9% RoI: 12.5%
PERSONS PER ROOM2011
Average Number of Persons per RoomHaase & Pratschke 2014
0.55 to 11 (5041)0.5 to 0.55 (3941)0.45 to 0.5 (6953)0.4 to 0.45 (5273)0 to 0.4 (1817)
NI: 0.45 RoI: 0.50
2011 ALL-ISLANDHP DEPRIVATION INDEX SCORE
All-Island HP Deprivation ScoreHaase & Pratschke 2014
30 to 50 (38)20 to 30 (507)10 to 20 (3060)0 to 10 (7946)
-10 to 0 (7807)-20 to -10 (3117)-30 to -20 (535)-60 to -30 (15)
NI: 3.0 RoI: - 0.7
THREE MAJOR OBSERVATIONS
By 2011 Northern Ireland had become the more affluent of the two jurisdictions. This is of considerable interest, as the relative positions of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are reversed compared with our previous analysis.
The driving factor in this striking development has been the ability of Northern Ireland to maintain a comparatively high level of employment despite the unfavourable economic climate since roughly the mid-point of the inter-census period.
The third observation that emerges is that rural areas in the Republic of Ireland appear to be much more negatively affected by opportunity deprivation than equivalent areas in Northern Ireland.
COMPARING THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX AND NI MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION MEASURES – NI ONLY
N = 4,537 (SA)
URBAN AND RURAL SHARES IN MOST DEPRIVED DECILE OF AREAS IN NORTHERN IRELAND
Deprivation Index Rural% SA
Urban% SA
Rural% Wards
Urban% Wards
All-Island HP Deprivation Index 6.8 93.2 10.3 89.7
NI Multiple Deprivation Measures (SA – based)
2.6 97.4 5.2 94.8
NI Multiple Deprivation Measures (Ward –based)
- - 3.4 96.6
BUILDING RESOURCE ALLOCATION SYSTEMS:
MODELLING POPULATION SHARES ACCORDING TO RELATIVE DEPRIVATION
T – TOTAL POPULATIONL – LOW (48.3%)M – MEDIUM (22.4%)H – HIGH ( 7.4%)
T : >5 STD (Total
Population)
L: 0 STD 48.3% Population
M: -1 STD 22.4%
H: -2 STD 7.4%
2011 ALL-ISLANDHP DEPRIVATION INDEX SCORES FORCOUNTIES AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT DISTRICTS
Ireland Northern Ireland
Local Authority Areas AI HP Score Local Government Districts AI HP Score
Carlow -3.84 Antrim 6.51
Cavan -2.82 Ards 4.59
Clare -2.75 Armagh 4.11
Cork City -2.12 Ballymena 4.91
County Cork 1.95 Ballymoney 2.02
County Galway -0.82 Banbridge 6.01
County Limerick -1.35 Belfast 2.65
County Waterford -1.16 Carrickfergus 4.43
Donegal -6.06 Castlereagh 8.66
Dublin City 1.79 Coleraine 3.70
Dublin Fingal 4.11 Cookstown 3.27
Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown 8.50 Craigavon 3.81
Galway City 5.47 Derry -0.44
Kerry -2.55 Down 5.00
Kildare 1.22 Dungannon 4.70
Kilkenny -1.14 Fermanagh 3.85
Laois -1.61 Larne 3.72
Leitrim -1.26 Limavady -0.70
Limerick City -8.58 Lisburn 6.47
Longford -4.41 Magherafelt 5.37
Louth -3.23 Moyle 1.08
Mayo -5.13 Newry and Mourne 2.73
Meath -0.69 Newtownabbey 5.83
Monaghan -2.83 North Down 8.43
Offaly -4.04 Omagh 4.48
Roscommon -3.73 Strabane -2.75
Sligo 0.87
South County Dublin -1.05
Tipperary NR -4.60
Tipperary SR -3.87
Waterford City -4.40
Westmeath -1.46
Wexford -5.90
Wicklow -1.33