Impact of surface ozone on agricultural crop yield reductions and economic damage in India under present emission scenario

Sachin D. Ghude

Chinmay Jena, D.M.ChateG. BeigG. Pfister

V. Ramanathan

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)Scripps Institute of Oceanography, UCSD, San Diego

Tropospheric ozone

Ozone (O3) is a highly reactive gas.

Main Drivers

Formed primarily from photochemical reactions between two major classes of air pollutants, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx).

Fluorescence imaging: soybean plant responses to elevated levels of ozone

(From Kim, et al., 2001).

What do we know about ozone Impact on vegetation and ecosystem?

Damage to leaf injure

Growth and yield reduction

Reduce carbon uptake by metabolizing less CO2 (indirect global Warming)

Reduces carbon flow from atmosphere to roots and reduces nitrogen fixation in soil (nitrogen runoff)

Reduce canopy evapotraspiration and soil water depletion and may increase sensible heat near the surface

Adams et al., 1989, adapted by Chameides et al., 1999

Ghude et al., J. Atm. Chem, 2009, Ghude et al., JGR, 2013

Agriculture is broadest economic sector, plays a significant role in socio-economic fabric.

With only 2.3% share in world’s total land area, India has to ensure Food security of its 1.2 billion population.

National Food Security Bill. Ensure availability of sufficient food

grains for domestics demand and

access to adequate quantity of subsidies food for 820 million people

WRF-Chem(Hourly ozone)

Meteor-ology

EmissionDist wise

Crop production

AOT40

RYL(a*AOT40)

GridedCrop production loss

(CPL)

Dist wise sowing dates

Grided (CP)Crop

production

Soybeans Cotton Wheat Rice(a=0.0113) (a=0.0151) (a=0.163) (a=0.0445)

Mills et al. 2007, corrected AOT40 for offset

TotalLoss

(sum CPL)

Economicloss

CPL=RYL/(1-RYL) x CP

Dingenen et al., 2009

General outline of the different steps involved in the data analysis for estimate crop production loss

Domain : South Asia (0 - 45° N, 55 -110 ° E)

Period : One Year ( 2005, Hourly simulations)

Resolution : 55 km x 55 km

Meteorology : NCAR NCEP/FNL

Gas Ph. Chem : MOZART

Aero Ph. Chem : GOCART

Boundary Cond. : MOZART-4 (updated every 6-h)

Photolysis :Madronich F-TUV

Emissions : INTEX-B (A Priori) (For NOx our top down)

Fire Emission : NCAR Fire Inventory (FINN) (plume rise)

Biogenic : MEGAN (online)

WRF-Chem Simulation for Year 2005

Comparison between observed and simulated NOx over India for different emission estimate and respective surface ozone distribution (for Jan-2005)

WRF-Chem(Hourly ozone)

Meteor-ology

EmissionDist wise

Crop production

AOT40

RYL(a*AOT40)

GridedCrop production loss

(CPL)

Dist wise sowing dates

Grided (CP)Crop

production

Soybeans Cotton Wheat Rice(a=0.0113) (a=0.0151) (a=0.163) (a=0.0445)

Mills et al. 2007, corrected AOT40 for offset

TotalLoss

(sum CPL)

Economicloss

CPL=RYL/(1-RYL) x CP

Dingenen et al., 2009

General outline of the different steps involved in the data analysis for estimate crop production loss

Crop Yield for various crops during 2005

Source: Special data dissemination standard-Directorate of economics and statistics

(SDDS-DES), Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

WRF-Chem(Hourly ozone)

Meteor-ology

EmissionDist wise

Crop production

AOT40

RYL(a*AOT40)

GridedCrop production loss

(CPL)

Dist wise sowing dates

Grided (CP)Crop

production

Soybeans Cotton Wheat Rice(a=0.0113) (a=0.0151) (a=0.163) (a=0.0445)

Mills et al. 2007, corrected AOT40 for offset

TotalLoss

(sum CPL)

Economicloss

CPL=RYL/(1-RYL) x CP

Dingenen et al., 2009

General outline of the different steps involved in the data analysis for estimate crop production loss

Simulated daytime (> 50 W/m2 global radiation ) mean surface ozone concentration

Kharif (Cotton, Rice & Soybeans)

Rabi(Wheat & Rice)

Wheat production and loss (Rabi) during 2005

Production : 71 MT

Loss : 3.5 (± 0.8) MT

Rice production and loss (Kharif + Rabi) during 2005

Production : 95.1 MT

Loss : 2.1 ( ± 0.8) MT

Soyabean and cotton production and loss (Kharif) during 2005

Production : 8.6 MT Loss : 0.23 (± 0.16) MT

Production : 3.3 MT Loss:0.17 (±0.10) MT

Aggregated reduction for top ten wheat and rice producing sates in India

Wheat loss is greatest in Maharashtra (17%) Rice loss grates in Punjab (8%)

Punjab and Haryana (< 1%)

Wheat

Rice

Impact of 100% cuts in anthropogenic NOX and VOCs emissions

100% NOx cuts results in 93% decrease(98% for rice and 90% for wheat) (5.2 MT saved)

100% VOcs cuts results in 28% decrease(1.7 MT saved)

Estimated Economic Loss (year 2005) due to ozone damage

CommoditiesProduction

(million tone)

Loss

(million tone)

Fraction loss (%)

Economic damage

(billion USD)

Soyabean 8.6 0.23 (±0.16) 2.7 (±1.9) 0.06 (±0.12)

Cotton 3.3 0.1 (±0.10) 5.3 (±3.1) 0.07 (±0.04)

Wheat 71 3.5 (±0.8) 5.0 (±1.2) 0.62 (±0.15)

Rice 95.1 2.1(±0.8) 2.1(±0.9) 0.54 (±23)

Total Economic Loss : 1.29 (± 0.47) billion USD2005

Conclusion:

Nationally aggregated relative yield loss of wheat, Rice, Cotton and Soybeans due to high O3 exposure totals 5.6 million tons amounting ~1.3 billion USD2005 Economic loss.

This loss is about double the about of wheat exported yearly or 50% of the rice exported annually.

The estimated economic loss due O3 induced yield loss alone in India is half of the estimated economic loss due to crop globally caused by global warming.

Loss of 5.6 million tons of wheat and rice could have fed 94 million beneficiary under the provision of national food security bill.

NOx emission cut could effectively mitigate ozone-induced production losses and significantly crop production output.

Tropospheric ozone

Ozone (O3) is a highly reactive gas.

Main Drivers

is formed primarily from photochemical reactions between two major classes of air pollutants, volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)

Many people mistakenly believe that tropospheric ozone concentrations are high only in major urban areas. It is also formed in smaller cities it is transported hundreds of miles downwind from where it is created to affect ambient air quality in other urban and rural areas

Studies in open-top field chambers have repeatedly verified that flecking,stippling, bronzing and reddening on plant leaves are classical responses to ambient levels of ozone. Plants grown in chambers receiving air filtered with activated charcoal to reduce ozone concentrations do not develop symptoms that occur on plants grown in nonfiltered air at ambient ozone concentrations. Foliar symptoms shown on this web site mainly occurred on plants exposed to ambient concentrations of ozone

ozone exposure indices

AOT 40 (Accumulation exposure over threshold of 40 ppb) is an exposure-plant response index function set by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN-ECE) and US-EPA.

It is calculated as the sum of differences between the hourly averaged O3 concentration and the threshold value of 40 ppb for each hour (radiation > 50 W m-2) that the averaged O3 concentration exceeds 40 ppb.

n AOT 40 = ([O3] – 40)i for [O3] > 40 ppb i=1

Seasonal daytime mean for 7 hours (M7)

Seasonal daytime mean for 12 hours (M12)

Accumulated daytime ozone concentration above a threshold of 40 ppbv

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(a) Mean Year2004

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(b)

AO

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AOT40 values for the mean period (2003-2006) At Pune

Monthly AOT40 at Pune and Delhi

Beig, Ghude, et al., GRL, 2008 Ghude et al., J. Atm. Chem, 2009

Model Evaluation with observations(Delhi)