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Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of MexicoBy: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Say hello to the Atlantic's fourth named storm of 2014--Tropical Storm Dolly, which formed Tuesday morning inthe Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Radar loops out of Altamira, Mexico show Dolly's heavy thunderstormswere already beginning to move ashore over the coast of Mexico a few hundred miles south of the Texas borderTuesday morning, though the heaviest activity was still well offshore. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showedthe classic appearance of a tropical storm struggling with wind shear--a low level circulation center partiallyexposed to view, with the heavy thunderstorms limited to one side (the south side) by strong upper-level winds.Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 30°C (86°F), but dry air to the north of Dolly was beingdriven into the center of the storm's circulation by strong upper-level winds from the north-northwest, keepingdevelopment slow. Dolly doesn't have long over water before it makes landfall on Wednesday morning, and likelywill not have time to intensify into a hurricane, given the dry air to its north and continued moderate levels ofwind shear expected to affect the storm. None of the Tuesday morning runs of the reliable hurricane intensitymodels showed Dolly becoming a hurricane. Heavy rain is the main threat of the storm, and Dolly's rains will becapable of generating dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the mountainous terrain of Mexico near and tothe south of the landfall location. The heavy rain threat will be less to the north of the landfall location, due to thepresence of dry air.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Dolly.
Say Hello, Dolly--again!Dolly's formation on September 2 comes more than a week later than the usual formation date of the Atlantic'sfourth named storm, August 23. The 2014 version of Tropical Storm Dolly is the eighth appearance of a stormnamed Dolly in the Atlantic. Dolly made its first appearance in 1953 as hurricane that weakened before passingover Bermuda. Dolly's most recent appearance, as a 2008 Category 2 hurricane that hit near the Texas/Mexicoborder, was its most damaging--$1.5 billion in losses were recorded. This was not enough to get the name Dollyretired, though, and I expect we will see the name Dolly get recycled again in 2020. (The record number ofappearances of a storm name for the Atlantic is ten, held by Arlene.)
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New African tropical wave this weekend may developA tropical wave is expected to come off the coast of Africa on Thursday and move to the west at about 15 mph.This wave will be capable of bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the Cape Verde Islands on Friday andSaturday. Our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation all show development bySaturday of the wave, and in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-dayand 5-day odd of development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively. The Tuesday morning runs of the GFS andEuropean ensemble models favored the storm taking a more west-northwesterly track into the open ocean nextweek, with no long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands indicated.
Tropical Storm Norbert a potential threat to Baja MexicoIn the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Norbert is gathering strength a few hundred miles south of thesouthwestern coast of Mexico. Though Mexico's Baja Peninsula was not in NHC's cone of uncertainty for Friday,the 00Z Tuesday run of the reliable European model did show Norbert coming very close to Baja on Friday, andresidents there should be alert to a possible shift in the predicted track of Norbert towards them in future NHCadvisories. Satellite loops show that Norbert has plenty of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity was justoffshore of Southwest Mexico on Tuesday morning. Norbert's formation on September 2 comes more than 5weeks before the typical October 11 formation date of the season's fourteenth storm in the Eastern Pacific.
Jeff Masters
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37. weatherman9943:48 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting allancalderini:Like is not the same as is. It might look like an El niño but its not one. Until is declared.
Thats what im trying to tell him look at what the previous seasons looked like same conditions this season is suffering from
Member Since: 24 juli 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
36. allancalderini3:44 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting 26. weatherh98:
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico | Weather Underground 2-9-2014
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2783 2 / 15
The atmosphere is very "El Niño" like
Like is not the same as is. It might look like an El niño but its not one. Until is declared.
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35. ricderr3:38 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
CPC in their ENSO weekly report....show the 3.4 region anomaly at 0.4C
Member Since: 27 juni 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21647
34. weatherh983:38 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting 30. weatherman994:
If its el nino like then the last 3 seasons are el nino like because this seasons suffering the same conditions the previous ones did
No. The global atmosphere is El Niño like, you also seem to have forgotten the storm count of 13 last year which is above the climatological average.And before that, we had a few years with lots of storms.
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33. NttyGrtty3:36 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Thanks Jeff...
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32. ricderr3:36 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
If its el nino like then the last 3 seasons are el nino like because this seasons suffering the same conditions the previous ones did
not true in all respects...
Member Since: 27 juni 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21647
31. ricderr3:35 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Yeah, I believe the most dangerous month will be October as things grow closer to home. So far since 2011 we get one name retired per year.2011=Irene 2012= Sandy 2013=Ingrid.
in an el nino forming year....over half of the time october sees no named stomrs and the strongest has been cat 1...nothing stronger
Member Since: 27 juni 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21647
30. weatherman9943:33 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting 26. weatherh98:
The atmosphere is very "El Niño" like
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico | Weather Underground 2-9-2014
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2783 3 / 15
If its el nino like then the last 3 seasons are el nino like because this seasons suffering the same conditions the previous ones did
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29. hydrus3:32 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Member Since: 27 september 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21244
28. hydrus3:31 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting 1. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thanks for update
way out
Interesting blob out in the Arabian Sea.
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Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico | Weather Underground 2-9-2014
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27. PedleyCA3:29 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting SPadre:South Padre Island during hurricane Katrina
Link
How big is the wave in that picture?
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26. weatherh983:28 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting 25. weatherman994:
It's not an el nino year its just a slow season
The atmosphere is very "El Niño" like
Member Since: 17 juni 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6495
25. weatherman9943:25 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting 20. prcane4you:
El Nino year.
It's not an el nino year its just a slow season
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24. ricderr3:22 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Yeah, I believe the most dangerous month will be October as things grow closer to home. So far since 2011 we get one name retired per year.2011=Irene 2012= Sandy 2013=Ingrid.
october is a very weak month in a year that an el nino forms.....give me a second to see what the past held...so i'm not talking out my butt
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Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico | Weather Underground 2-9-2014
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23. PedleyCA3:20 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Thanks for the update Dr.masters,
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22. allancalderini3:18 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting 21. Dakster:
Yep... I don't think we will be running out of names this year.
Although it only takes one to make for a bad year.
Yeah, I believe the most dangerous month will be October as things grow closer to home. So far since 2011 we get one name retired per year.2011=Irene 2012= Sandy 2013=Ingrid.
Member Since: 15 oktober 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4343
21. Dakster3:12 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting 20. prcane4you:
El Nino year.
Yep... I don't think we will be running out of names this year.
Although it only takes one to make for a bad year.
Member Since: 10 maart 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10315
20. prcane4you3:07 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting 8. jonger1150:
It's September 2nd and we just made it to (D).
El Nino year.
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19. hydrus3:00 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Thanks Doc.
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18. biff4ugo2:58 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
In Space Weather...Does anyone know why the CME with about 3 aftershocks at 11 yesterday doesn't seem to be showing up on any warnings? Itwas full circle which usually means it was heading at us.
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico | Weather Underground 2-9-2014
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2783 6 / 15
The huge lightning event we had yesterday seems to have been in mulitple areas based on all the strokes and cloud types photographed yesterday.
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17. SFLWeatherman2:55 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
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16. islander1010102:54 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
this aint going to be a good event for texan surfers onshore and sloppy could always drive to s mexico and catch another nice s hemi.
Member Since: 11 september 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4599
15. VR46L2:48 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Thanks Doc !!!
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14. SPadre2:48 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Buoy 42055 in the southern Gulf is showing 12-14' seas at 9-10 seconds with an ESE to SE direction. Pretty large fetch on Dolly, should be somelarge surf on the Texas coast tomorrow.
Member Since: 26 februari 2008 Posts: 44 Comments: 12
13. bappit2:45 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
LinkMJO update from CPC dated September 1. Quoting:
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico | Weather Underground 2-9-2014
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2783 7 / 15
• The MJO remains weak as indicated by various MJO indices, although some evidence of an intraseasonal signal is present, with an envelope ofsuppressed (enhanced) convection propagating eastward across the Pacific (Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent).
• Other types of subseasonal variability, including tropical cyclones and mid-latitude interactions, continue to play a large role in determining thepattern of anomalous tropical convection.
• Dynamical and statistical models do not support the evolution of a robust MJO signal during the upcoming two weeks.
• Based on recent observations and model guidance, the MJO, although weak, may contribute to enhanced (suppressed) convection over theMaritime Continent and South Asia (Western Hemisphere).
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12. SPadre2:43 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
South Padre Island during hurricane Katrina
Link
Member Since: 26 februari 2008 Posts: 44 Comments: 12
11. SPadre2:41 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Good morning. Here is a live shot of the South Padre Surf Cam in South Padre Island Texas. This morning we have mostly sunny skies and a SE windaround 15-20, surf is slowly building at around 4-6' this morning and tides are slightly above normal. Expecting surf to build rapidly overnight up to10' or more Wednesday. http://www.spadre.com/southpadresurfcam.jpg
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10. Sfloridacat52:36 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico | Weather Underground 2-9-2014
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not out of the question. 06z GFS, way long range, but the GFS has been showing something like this for a few days.
The CMC is also showing a Low crossing the Yucatan heading for the BOC about the same time frame.
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Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico | Weather Underground 2-9-2014
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9. HurricaneAndre2:35 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
At it again.
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8. jonger11502:35 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
It's September 2nd and we just made it to (D).
Member Since: 30 november 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 68
7. LargoFl2:32 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
1. A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of west Africaon Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducivefor some development through the weekend while the systemmoves westward at about 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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6. CybrTeddy2:31 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Quoting Sfloridacat5:Thanks for the update.I also think we need to keep our eyes on the southern Caribbean and Central America for another system forming this weekend or early nextweek.
Not out of the question. 06z GFS, way long range, but the GFS has been showing something like this for a few days.
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico | Weather Underground 2-9-2014
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5. LargoFl2:30 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
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4. ZacWeatherKidUK2:30 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Thanks Dr. Masters!
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3. Sfloridacat5
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico | Weather Underground 2-9-2014
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3. Sfloridacat52:29 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
Thanks for the update.I also think we need to keep our eyes on the southern Caribbean and Central America for another system forming this weekend or early next week.
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2. ricderr2:28 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
good morning folks...back from a little trip to california........watched dolly form....first named storm of september......in a year of a forming elnino....the average named storms for september is 3.2
lowest amount of named storms in september of an el nino forming year is......1......and highest is 8
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1. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)2:27 PM GMT op 02 september 2014
thanks for update
way out
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